Followers | 1652 |
Posts | 18,274 |
Boards Moderated | 1 |
Alias Born | 11/10/2004 |
Twitter Profile: | Temporarily Unavailable |
Follow on Twitter: | Follow @ Temporarily Unavailable |
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Expect S&P at top and will retrace and fill gap below, now. This will be the wash back from the "V" bottom 1st target being reached. After wash back, time to watch for 3 month continuation on mid term election odds.
I'm calling this because FAS gapped yesterday when S&P didn't and FAS didn't pop again today when S&P did. Tells me higher risk 3x ETF traders reaching exhaustion. And if high risk is taking off risk, odds are their signaling underlying stock (SPX) will retrace. Plus the chart pattern calls for a wash back sometime. May as well be now. LOL
So a position trade at FAS will start when top resistance is broken (be it 118 or higher, if my retrace call fails) But target will be 150 points at the S&P over the next 3 months. Seems a little extreme. But even though the "V" bottom target projects S&P 2150 in Q1 2015. Worth playing, with 75% of the time the market rallies, after mid term, for 3 month, odds. You can always adjust plan as needed on a position trade at FAS.
FAS
SPX
Here's a few I'm interested in.
MM has a 20% channel 1.50 bounce today; in 1.70 to 2.10 target
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MM&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p61924143580
SIAF broke north week 3 for resistance 20% .98 to 1.17 target
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MM&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p61924143580
ZBB, CERE, NAK have double bottoms; these call for small entry at trend line break and larger at resistance break.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ZBB&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p46213522262
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CERE&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p55770047443
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NAK&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p98812549450
LEDS, MPO trying to break ascending triangles.
in LEDS MPO needs crude oil bounce.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LEDS&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p90479957534
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MPO&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p97631568771
WLT walking up single bottom bounce
in Monday on 1st resistance break
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WLT&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p77256363284
Have to disagree. Been watching the OTC for 10 years and it's my experience spring and fall are (had been) the good times. With summer and winter slow.
I'm in the process in re-evaluating my dividend stock positions. Plan on doing a post on dividend investing soon.
Also after reporting my FAS/FAZ results, got me thinking and want to mention something which may get pennylanders out of the OTC mindset and thinking about the big boards.
Most every day I pull up IHUBs hot breakout board to see what's new. It's been over 6 months since I've seen any OTC stock run last 5 days. And I'm sure the OTC market is loosing interested pennylanders every day. The question is are they giving up and just stopping trading or are they thinking of other areas to trade. I want to keep you frustrated playing. Because IMO there's no easier way to supplement income, then trading stocks.
So here's my food for thought, if you're thinking about giving up. Because you don't feel you have enough cash to trade big boards.
Most OTC stocks, that are active, are adding or subtracting under 33% daily. And these pops and drops are not within any trending stocks. So the OTC market has been up 33%, up 15%; down 15%, down 33% pretty much. So by the time the average pennylander finds what's hot. It becomes cold. There are only flashes to trade. And there hard to catch.
The big boards offer trends, chart patterns and technical indicators to trade. While every pennylander is hoping for a good run. Your missing small gains that add up. Think about changing ones trading style from darkside pumps & dumps, to trading patterns and targets. Their around every day.
It's all in the numbers, as usual. Say you have $3k to trade and you put $1k in 3, weekly (3 to 5 day run) swing trade stocks, with 5% targets. Then close 2 for 5% gain and 1 for 2.5% loss. Plus $20 round trip trade fees each.
Trying $3k cash; $2k + 5% = $100 and $1k - 2.5% = -$25, then 3 trade fees -$60. Add it all up 100 - 25 = 75 - 60 = $15 gain or over all only .5% gain weekly or $60 a month. Not worth the effort to try big board stocks under $15.
Now try $9k cash; $6k +5% = $300 and $3k - 2.5% = $75, then 3 trade fees -$60. Add it all up 300 - 75 = 225 -60 = $165 gain or over all 1.8% gain weekly or $660 a month. Will another $660 help with your bills. Try big board stocks under $15.
Food for thought. Will your personal case benefit from thinking about trading small cap stocks, at the national exchanges, rather then wait for/ trying to catch, a big gain lightning strike at the OTC? Run the numbers.
Is a dead unused money, gambling trading style benefiting you as much as an active money, pattern trading style could.
Should you create a business plan and swing trade small caps. It's all in the numbers and your mindset!
Ps; Heard the largest increase in voting was in the 55 to 65 year old republican sector. And largest decrease was 18 to 25 democrats. Guess apathy works. Us old folks want larger CD rates and those kids gave up on moving out of retail. LOL
Don't expect any market sectors or industries to take off during the lame duck period.
I think the United States of Corporations will get what we voted for. The rich to get richer. But at least maybe some things will get passed/changed. Finally the pendulum will start to swing again. Odds against wages ever improving now, but increase in jobs bills will help. That's pretty much a given if repubs want to add their figure head in 2016. Poor job increases is now all on their heads. They need the 2/3s not voting this time, on their side. Construction is my guess. But no way they will take money out of businessmen's pockets for main street.
By the way, something like 75% of the time, markets have increased 3 months after mid term elections, no matter which party won. So a FAS buy and hold position play, could work nicely to 2015. Ps; Added 5% last week; total 5 weeks playing FAS/FAZ +38%. Gone-a have a good year.
Thinking infrastructure, defense, banking, and pharma have the best chance for republican congress support, in 2015. Infrastructure for jobs, defense because of republican minds, banking/financials to pay back for election and pharma on any changes to Obama care.
Just a thought; want to get the 2/3s to vote 2016. Get Brad Pitt & George Clooney to run. With the Kardashian girls as running mates. LOL Just can't believe only 1/3 of the registered voters showed up in the most important election. And less then 6% of representatives lost their jobs. Damn sure more then 6% of Americans were unhappy.
By the way S&P reached "V" bottom 1st target yesterday. Keep an eye out for momo higher/wash back and continuation the next 2 weeks +/-. Russell 2000 small caps is washing back now.
Nice find; good going. Damn shame I didn't pay attention. But haven't been looking at OTC stocks at all.
AZFL
Also like the recent accumulation volumes at bottom. Agree strong watch in pennyland.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AZFL&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p57226871245
.0017 resistance break to .002 reasonable entry.
Want to add 2 strong watch stocks and remove 1 from watch list
(link back)
Add SIAF - working on week 3 of high tight flag. Should pop or dive.
And CPST - have starter position @ .95 bear flag 61% fail point. Take profits and go big at 1.05 "V" bottom 1st target for 1.35 second target. earnings Nov 6
Remove HK it turned south.
Picked up 25% at VPCO today. Entry at top resistance break, exit at 3.65 symmetrical triangle target.
Don't forget to VOTE all incumbents out today !!!
NKE something I missed in last post.
Just finished watching a movie and before bed checked the board. reread my post an noticed I forgot something that aids choosing ones long term stop loss level.
That's using the Parabolic SAR overlay, instead of the BBands. The SAR offers a technical indicator point, very reasonable for stop losses. because during trend, price usually moves to SAR's price point levels. More then SAR's points move to price.
Meaning if you use a stop loss rather then a trailing stop. You can and should adjust your stop point daily with each days SAR adjustment.
Right now NKE's SAR stop loss point is at $88.18 just below the small common gap below. Great place for a stop taking into account for daily price flux. Helps with getting stopped out on a fake break of the $90.50 stop I kept mentioning.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NKE&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p61486781829
NKE
Long term has a bump & run calling for pull back to low 80ties.
Mid term has a runaway gap below calling for retrace to $82.50
Short term has a "V" bottom with expectation of wash back to $90. Then continuation to second target of $97.
My recommendation a stop loss somewhere below $90.
Click youtube to view better resolution.
A little more on My bull. I post about my TIPs and Rules of Thumb. TIPs I see very often and Rules of Thumb I have seen to many times not to strongly rely on them. I'd guess around 75 to 80% success rate is the difference between TIPs and Rules of Thumb. TIPs succeed around 75% of the time, but Rules of Thumb more the 80%.
But remember any TA & charting projection or my personal TIPs and Rules of Thumb have a failure rate. Nothing is guaranteed. So all this info should be used to watch for expectation of what could happen and then trade accordingly, when seen.
The island reversal "volume in/volume out" is a Rule of Thumb. And an expected 3 touch bottom channel a TIP. While an ascending triangle is a books historical chart pattern. They also have success/failure rates. With flags and triangles at the top of patterns.
Basic, simple and clean. I present info to increase odds for success. And comfort while trading. This info doesn't guaranteed success. Trade all stocks at the board should be traded "at ones own risk". As nothing at the markets is black & white. Gray is the color of stock trading !
But I do hope readers reach my level of trading comfort, by picking and choosing from in the box and out of the box info presented for their individual trading style. Mine is low risk enter late, leave early. It doesn't work well for all trading styles.
I'm presently working on 2 new TIPs;
The new OTC game and high & tight flag failure. Keep an eye out for these.
OTC game;
13g,then early rush hour volume equal to 1/3 the OS for day trade gains.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=107700761
High tight flag;
If price pop doesn't continue within 3 weeks, expect price fall.
Ps; FNMA had price fall in the 3rd week after a price pop.
The more you see something happen, the more you can rely on it !
FNMA chart
Ps; this is basically the same chart HK & MPO have, but they haven't failed. NOT island reversals, which adds comfort on success. That's why I have them on strong watch for possible successful ascending triangle patterns. Been strong watching FNMA, but expected island reversal bottom channel won, as expected.
Island reversals are phycology/sentiment plays with phycology strength. When sentiment is as strong as the gap down, it will fill large gap above. Volume in/ volume out ! Sentiment needs to be strong to change phycology. Else the channel continues.
HKUP
Here's the 13g, 3 weeks earlier.
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=63919945
The more you see something happen, the more you can rely on it !
By the way; FNMA headed back to expected channel bottom. Couldn't break 2.40 channel top, on an ascending triangle. That kind-a confirms bottom channel phycology. Failure of positive sentiment. Looks like 90 cent channel play possible. Worth trading, if it bounces from 1.50 +/- again. On Weekly watch list. Now has a gap above.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FNMA&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p24906270346
Here's some small cap's I'm interested in.
Strong watch
MPO Small ascending triangle bottom continuation. With improving TA indicators. Confirmed entry signals close.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MPO&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p58070610544
HK Same as above.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HK&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p08577236160
VPCO again, symmetrical triangle
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VPCO&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p42802324185
Watch
NPTN Bounce from 3.00 gap fill, with gaps above. Possible mid term bottom channel break.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NPTN&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p35173991972
Divvy buying opp again (15% yearly divvy)
ARR Buy the flag / up channel bounce. 1.25% divvy to end of the year guaranteed. Price climb very likely. Christmas rally & up channel come back.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ARR&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p49408119152
I've taught all my kids,
Just noticed your signature, outstanding! IMO
Same here. Haven't been playing OTC moves unless it's free trading and has chart patterns. Picked up a few nice trades a month or two ago. But many pennylanders are getting into these lightning strikes, on built up tension.
So figured it was time to make readers aware of what I've been looking for and finding.
What I've noticed is many of the past lightning strikes have 13g's a week or 3, to a month, before and when you see early volumes look like the whole OS may be traded that day. Sell EOD or next days open. They just aren't continuing, because all shares for sale are being moved in 1, max 3 days.
Seems this is what the big guys are doing now days. And you know I always say; Do what the big guys do. LOL Unusually large volume seems to be the key. Ex; say the OS is 300mil and you notice 9:30 to 10 am has 100 mil. Probably worth jumping in.
Wasn't after being correct. Was after teaching how to think logically. And what to look for. At todays OTC game. The game has changed and one must find a way to adapt.
Now days OTC moves have been fast and furious. Can't rely on any of my old teachings about pump & dumps. Now days you have to quickly research recent share structure and act accordingly. Haven't seen the old share structure progression work for a long time. You don't have weeks or days to watch for action. Action has become instantaneous. Share shifting/funding and in no time everything is dumped. The days of the 10x week long P&D or 3 month step ups, seem to be over. Seeing wam bam, fleecing complete in a day or 3 now.
But yep, learning to take profits when you see them and buy late and sell early, always ends with more gains then losses. Smaller but more of them.
Lightning strikes have become the Soup du jour some where, most every day. And playing with lightning requires watching daily volume for complete OS trading in a day. And quickly research recent share structure changes. If the numbers don't make sense, odds are your involved in a darkside fleecing. Get out as quick as you got in. IMO
This is all about;
The more you see something happen, the more you can rely on it !
Been seeing this happen a great deal lately. 1st time mentioning it.
M&Ms handled that fleecing skillfully. Able to sell higher in the morning. And covered in the afternoon. 56 mil OS with 203 mil volume. 84 mil buys and 113 mil sells. No naked short position.
IMO walk away if you can.
Hope all sold at the open.
Link back
VTEQ & ELRA - - OTC's hot stocks for today!
If your all excited and plan holding for more. Caution.
VTEQ Had an OS of 34 mil. Sept 62 mil in 13g ownership filing. Today volume of 96 mil during 300% lightning strike.
ELRA Had OS of 365 mil. Oct 470 mil in 13g ownership filing. Today volume of 486 mil during 100% lightning strike.
Never believe the PR story, trade retail reaction to it !
Both have had major shares sold for profits. All in 1 day. Don't expect anyone feeding price continuation. Odds are shares for sale were sold. And emotional pennylanders rarely take profits, selling into continuations. So if no one is selling higher, price stops running.
Food for thought ! Both had volumes larger then the possible total OS. M&Ms have 3 days to buy back lower and close their Reg SHO naked short. VC's moved all their inventory. Retail doesn't sell runs.
Logical conclusion IMO; Take profits when they present!
That's my point. LOL Both political parties aren't very happy with how things are going. Otherwise we wouldn't have the Tea Party or Move On. org. Corporations controlled by the wealthy elite are buying strength one election at a time.
Just hoping this one forces the change both parties want. Creating honest debate, instead of stall tactics shutting down any constructive changes being made. Don't care if change swings left or right. Just want change. Things aren't working at stalemate.
That's for sure.
The middle class did well with both extremes in government, Ragan and Clinton. But stalemate has only benefited one class the last 6 years. Would love to see how things work with a republican Senate and democratic House. LOL Mainly would love to see what happens when all the power brokers are gone! Look-in for some new blood, can't do worst then the old blood.
Just think what would happen is everyone moving into offices in 2015 didn't know the rules of the game needed to be followed. Damn lots of new ideas would flow.
Looking to shake up politics, not aid any class of people. Or promote either political agenda. Just want our democracy back. Want the fear of the masses to be stronger then the fear of no campaign contributions. Want representatives elected, not bought with the largest ad campaign. Voting every incumbent out will instill some long missed fear of their constituents, more then their bosses.
Besides, what has our government done for us lately. Only disappointed both parties. The only ones not disappointed in government are those making lots of money. Their paying for the ad campaigns. And a do nothing government.
7 days and counting.
Vote all incumbents out !!! That's as easy as it gets. Force change.
Just found an interesting video that covers many of the subjects I just posted about HFT and todays market problems. Couldn't have done a better job supporting the way I understand the HFT system, if I scripted the video myself.
Pay attention where a data center guy 28.20 minutes into the video, shows how exchanges link data to each other. The yellow octagon with cross lines. That's the honey pot all trading house computers are mainly looking for. When the algorithms find differences in price for the same stock, at different exchanges due to micro seconds delay in the system. That's where the most basic of algorithms implement their arbitrage buying and selling in Nano seconds reaping the gains.
Worth 50 minutes of you life? Understanding the game helps !!!
Sound like something happening to keep an eye on.
The more you see something happen, the more you can rely on it !
VPCO back on the radar in pennyland.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VPCO&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p17781210536
Sold SHLD, red day.
Loven SHLD (sears)
After last nights post about JCP & SHLD I decided to take my first stock position in a month. Bought SHLD again at open, because double bottom target, top resistance, broken Thursday.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SHLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p62044064577
High candle spike with strong volume. Red Monday and I'm out already. But there is a possibility of hitting $42, next resistance. Their starting to finally sell real-estate. And that has been their honey pot forever. The bee-z are a buzz-en about the potential new rev stream.
Sitting on 8 1/2 % and FAS was weak for me today. FAS/FAZ finished the week with 7.5%. For me at the big boards 8.5% in a day is like a lightning strike. Lucky day, rare for me.
Check this out! Corporations don't really need to screw employees to be profitable.
What a prosperous and strong economy the US would have, if corporations stepped up and paid a good living wedge !!! But hey, I guess trillions in off shore banks is more important, then helping your country recover.
God bless the United States of Corporations.
You got to read this.
Costco pays employees $20 an hour.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-costco-pays-retail-employees-200604857.html?l=1
And see how being human really effects the bottom line.
Company stock zooming.
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=COST&ty=c&ta=0&p=m&b=1
I really hate corporations and the fact they are treated like individuals, by law. In general they are far from human.
Also want to mention; Along with the tightest price spread in a month @ the S&P. F (ford) had a strong down day. More support for last nights S&P eval. HFT may be ending and retail may fill gap below.
Yes, you did overlay correct. And IMO correct. Todays tight candle body finish, low volume, and FIBs stall point shows potential for continuation. Safe re-entry at .057, top resistance break.
Any time there isn't panic selling after a profit taking day is good. Shows mindset is positive, especially with the large lower candle tail comeback.