Winged Foot in 2020.

http://www.golf.com/ap-news/us-open-return-winged-foot-2020

...you think the stock market is humbling, there is nothing, and I mean nothing like Winged Foot for professional golfers if they are diabolical in pin placement, as they often are.

The club members are the upper 1% and dislike the PGA and galleries tramping around, but every 15-20 years they give in opening their doors to the riff raff. To keep the pros from wanting to play the course they are as mean as mean can be with pin placement.

Center of the green? Nope, they all hug a bunker or better yet a cliff which many of the triple step greens are next to!

If I was president I'd declare Winged Foot the 'Augusta' for the U.S. Open holding it there every year...and I'd personally set the pins.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winged_Foot_Golf_Club

One Graph to Show the Impressive Pulse.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=JNK&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=t76787767077&r=1458592899293

...October's rally doesn't hold a candle to this one!

'What? Me Worry." Fed on Inflation...

gives inflation expectations a shot in the arm. Count back four days to the Fed meeting. Inflation protected bonds the place to be.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=LTPZ%3ATLT&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=t38180348405&r=1458592245952

DOW Longest Win Streak in Over a Year !

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-logs-longest-winning-streak-in-over-a-year-2016-03-21

...the power of the pulse.

TVIX New All Time Low !!!

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=TVIX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=t26707356142&r=1458590662058

Off over 9% today, when the equity markets traded flat! The power of rising contango is awesome.

VXX Getting Hammered as Contangio Builds.

...now up to 8% on the one month future. If history is a guide the peaks in contango are right about 20% !!!

Developed Inflationary Pulse Measure.

...which turned positive (higher inflation) on March 9th.

As it stands today, both the secular inflation and growth measures are pointing towards recession/deflation, while both the pulse measures of inflation and growth are pointing towards recovery/inflation.

As it stands now this is a bear market rally, but if the rally persists and the secular measures change the bear market rally will morph into a bull market rally.

When (if) this happens the bull will turn and gore the stuffings out of the lions (bears).

Super-Whimsical Bullard.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-bullard-idUSKCN0WK2IR

...Fed should now start raising rates!

Depending on which side of the bed he crawls out of in the morning, he's either a hawk or dove! Look for a stronger USD, until maybe tomorrow!

SW will be JB's handle.

MACD Has Been Perfect YTD.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=TLT&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=t71930033875&r=1458567573355

...the LB now testing the 50 dma.

...Rather What Spooked Bullard.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-17/what-happened-yesterday-either-something-spooked-fed-or-there-central-bank-accord

When JB turned dove he showed some smarts saying the Fed measures of inflation expectations or TLT:TIP was completely unreliable...which it is.

Back in the fall of 2015 when JB was a hawk the TIP bond was making headway against TLT, but then it fell apart after they raised rates, and he became a dove again.

What he is saying is that the TIP has to REALLY get a run going for it before he's a believer that inflation is REALLY back.

Yes, BUT!

Even if the market runs positive for another three months I want to be on the right side in cash rather than the wrong side betting against equities.

Rule one, two, and three of a trader are don't go against the market, don't try to pick the bottom, never catch a falling knife (vxx).

As JL would say: 'It's better to buy at the right time than the right (lowest) price.'

I'll waiting for the pulse to turn, if I bought now I'd be gambling.

Fed Chair Bullard Speaks on Monday.

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/content/news/2016/03/17/the-week-ahead-fed-speeches-gdp-highlight-short-week

De Facto Fed Chair...James Bullard.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/24/feds-bullard-repeats-warning-on-rate-hikes-cites-threat-to-inflation-target.html

...Fed surprised the market is week or did it? Not if you follow the reasoning by JB. I looked back over the past couple of years and JB has been on the right side of every hawk/dove vote.

Rather clear that Yellen isn't paying attention to Fisher or Williams.

Read Up on the 'Owners' of QGMIX and ASAIX.

https://www.aqr.com/

...go to page three and read the Baron's article, which is a good one.

The article pulls data from the exact day of the bear trough in mid-Feb., with the flagship AQMIX up 4.6% YTD...then. Today it's given it all back being .20% YTD.

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/AQMIX

These guys are playing a secular winter and do not try to time the growth pulses. I of course do and ran to the USD (big mistake) and now cash. Fortunately for me I didn't give back all my gain...only half--still ouch!

ATACX on the other hand swings from the trees running DIA one day and DOG the next.

Global Macro Hedge Funds Doing Nothing in 2016

http://www.barclayhedge.com/research/indices/ghs/Global_Macro_Index.html

...tough to make a buck out there.

Strongest Pulse in Two Years!

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets-idUSKCN0WK03J

...and it show no signs of being tired after chugging the Yellen energy drink

Cruz the Gold Bug.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/02/23/this-might-be-ted-cruzs-worst-idea/?tid=hybrid_experimentrandom_1_na

...and this is the nut job all good Republicans are suppose to rally around to defeat The Donald nut job?

VXX Turns Negative YTD.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=VXX&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=t77809620824&r=1458384049541

...buying at the close on 12/31 VXX turned negative for the year this week. Remember how the DOW had the worst start EVER for the first and second week of the year, well the bull down on his knees as the lion closed in for the kill found out he had a bit of adrenaline still left in him and is now off and running.

Lions are still after him. Will they catch up to him and finish him off this time (pulse turns negative), or will the pulse pull so strongly that we leave secular winter and move into secular fall as he turns and gores the pussy cats? Stay tuned.

Pulse Growth...Week #11 +25

...all 25 growth pulse indicators are crossed showing positive growth in the global economy. On top of that all are widening the MACD difference except one as Granny Yellen administered a shot of joy juice on Wednesday.

The pulse has turned winter into fall with stocks the world over rising on higher p/e's as the sovereign bond yields fall.

Secular Growth WeeK #11...-16 vs. -16.

...no change.

Secular Inflation...Week #11 -46.5 vs. -45

...Inflation continues its five year dive.

Match Race Call.........Week #11

GT continues to lead handily up 6.33% YTD losing about half a length of his lead over QGMIX .10% YTD and ASAIX (1.74%) YTD as the track has completely dried out changing from muddy...risk off, to lightening fast...risk on.

Even though leading the weekly match race, the full race field has been on a charge with one passing GT as the heavy mud shoes continue to slow the match race animals.

Last two weeks have not been fun losing 3/4 length each week on an absolute basis with Mario and Janet passing out joy buzzers to the risk on nags.

When the Secular Inflation Rate Turns Up.

...and there is zero chance of that happening in the next three months, unless a global calamity happens.

Miners and Commodities...Short Cover Rally

http://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/biggest-mining-equity-rally-in-years-built-on-shaky-foundations-390728

...swinging pulse pendulum with secular trend still firmly down.

Whimsical ECB Talking Helicopter Money

http://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/ecb-could-cut-rates-again-if-economy-fails-to-pick-up:-praet-390702

...Praet obviously would make a better chair than less-than-super Mario.

Pulse Indicator Signaling Lower Rates

...could turn negative (meaning lower rates and higher bond prices) by early next week which would have me moving to 50% TLT / 50% MM.

Interesting in that this pulse was the first among the 25 to turn negative on Feb. 19th, however, all the other pulses are no where near turning negative which tells me both bond and stock prices...helped along by lower yields, are moving higher.

Sept./Oct. All Over Again.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=VXX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=t81814664494&r=1458233286294

...from the start of Nov. it took the markets 1 1/2 months to set up a bear market signal.

If history repeats itself the old adage 'sell in May' may well play out.

All in all it will be pretty boring until then.

Two things in life you can't rush: 1) cooking pork, 2) the markets.

The Fed is Whimsical.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-09-25/janet-yellen-s-flip-flop-confuses-markets

...data driven, ya, right. Every couple months or so the Fed flips and flops. Hot in July, cold in Sept., hot in Dec., cold in March.

Whimsical of course is another name for 'we don't have the slightest clue what we're doing so we'll look to the markets to tell us'.

Jack be Nimble, Jack be Quick.

...From effectively an all in position in UUP to 0% in less than 24 hrs. Feeling good again being on the right side of the market in the LB.

The pulse has done incredible damage to VXX and DOG, it will be a while before a negative cross happens in any of my pulse indicators.

Having gone 25% in the LB, there is another LB indicator which is close to a cross which would have me add another 25%. After that it will be a waiting game on the pulse crosses to move more into the LB as well as DOG, and VXX.

Silver Longs Love Yellen.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=t62271536456&r=1458224222868

...USD down 1%, with SLV over GLD up 1%. Yellen says now that she isn't worried at all about inflation which of course produces inflation.

Still, commodity prices have far to rise before my secular signal indicates a shift from deflation.

Micro Danger vs. Macro Danger.

Micro danger comes in the form of missed earnings, irregular accounting, bad guidance.

Macro danger comes in the form of CB'ers flip-flopping, as both Yellen and Mario have done within a week of each other.

Between the two I'll take a manic-depressive CB'er over a corporate crook any day of the week.

As Yellen has flipped I must flop now having sold all my UUP and gold shorts on the premise that interest rates would be moving up...but no more as dollar seller like myself move back to the LB.

With the LB yield falling this will put a floor under stock, commodity, gold, and every other asset in the world.

As it stands my adjusted model has me 25% TLT / 75% MM.

Yikes, All Assets of the World Going Up

...except of course the USD. As Jesse would say, there is a right side to the market, and a wrong side. I'm definitely on the wrong side now that hawk Yellen found her dove wings.

Selling off last 50% of the USD and closing out the gold shorts.

All Part of the Game, Funny Though

...that of my twelve risk pairs eleven have done exceptionally well, the lone holdout of course being the USD. Like a boxer losing a fight I've got to heal first, train, and then be patient in picking my next spot. If winter stays with us VXX, DOG, and the LB will have their day in court sometime this year.

Getting CB Tag Teamed...Ouch!

First I go against not-so-super Mario on Thursday going to the top rope hitting me full force in the chest with a flying leap.

Getting to my feet dazed from the horrific impact he tags off to Granny Yellen today who picks me up and tosses me over her head like a sack of potatoes. She then starts turning in circles until a nearly black out from the airplane spin, stopping to drop me to her knee for a back breaker which made the audience gasp thinking she broke my frigen back.

Wanting to yell 'No Mas' I do the next best think and sell 50% of UUP and my gold shorts wanting to keep what's remains of my gain YTD, crawling over to the corner I tag off.

Who would think a little Italian guy and a senior citizen Jewish grandmother could be so tough.

Last Pulse Indicator a Hair's Breath From Positive

...depending on how the USD reacts to Granny Yellen I could well be all in with 80% in UUP and 20% in gold shorts at the close.

Markets Recovered 24/1 w/all 24 at Peak.

...markets have a familiar pattern sell off in morning and recovery in afternoon.

And Here I Get Upset if the USD is Off .5%

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/valeant-stock-craters-as-activist-bill-ackman-pledges-proactive-role-2016-03-15

...anyone who is a under deversified micro player has way bigger cajones than me.

BDI Still Moving Higher.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24BDI&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=t66403018184&r=1458064974824

...de ja vue Feb. 2015

Born in 1948, Half and Half.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3956934-way-wednesday-hilsenrath-loses-touch

...almost to the year (UST long bond yield chart) I've lived my life first in rising inflation and then falling inflation which is often called disinflation but in reality is deflation.

In a deflation, falling deflation (prices becoming less deflationary) should no longer be considered a deflation, but an inflation.

Secular Spring...1948-1965 ending with LBJ and Dems sweeping into office after Kennedy.

Secular Summer...1965-1981 ending with RR giving the green light to Volcker to raise interest rates high enough to get ahead of the curve on inflation.

Secular Fall...1981-present NOT ending in 2001 nor 2008 nor 2016 (yet) due to heroic global fiscal and monetary policy preventing asset and price collapse.

Secular Winter... ???

My Lawn DOA, July 2000--RIP.

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

...moved into our new home in July 2000 and the lawn, which had been cut that morning, was heat stroke dead by the time they unrolled it. Nasty, nasty summer, followed by a record snow winter.