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I can and will tell all that .04 is not there after the volume events.
Prior to the volume events, .026 is there, but .04 is not actually there as a support level that should enter into the analysis.
If you want to look for .026, you are entitled to say the charts contain it. I think .043 is the current hold point.
Since 12/16/11, all that has happened (LOL) is that there has been a huge explosion and retrace and a gap filling and so forth. But there is also a pattern of regularly higher lows.
Higher lows. One after another. And volume events dominating.
.043 may hold. It may not. If the volume events of the 5th & 6th do not continue to dominate, .026 will be the test, not .04
.04 is fictional after the 5th & 6th. .026 is actual prior to them.
.043 is thin, I grant that. But as of this moment, it is what has held and we have not seen any spikes below to .04 since the volume events of the 5th and the 6th. And each new low since 12/16 has been a higher low each time.
Simple as that.
Peace.
Imperial Whazoo
No thats not correct.
You can not use the prices prior to the upthrust and the bearish engulfing of 1/5 & 1/6. Those dominate, IMHO, and force the analysis to consider only what has occurred since then. We got a bearish engulfing on larger volume. Then a low if the hammer of .0433 (use 5 minutes to see it) is what it looks like. Then a retest that did not quite reach happened today.
And I failed to mention that the gap up got filled by the bearish engulfing. So, filling the gap was necessary work that had to be done. Now thats behind us and the dominating big ass czandles call the momo and the context.
They make looking prior to them bad technique. They happened. They changed the lay of the land. Now they beookmark going forward. They are where the volume happened and the tiny, niggling little trading events and volume prior to them are not relevent as of today's technique necessities. Simple as that.
The trading prior to 1/5 & 1/6 is immaterial to the current momo or lack thereof.
And anyway, if you want to use the days prior to the explosions that happened on 1/5 &1/6, what choose .04? There is a hammer on 12/23, you know, that reached .026, so that would be valid over .04.
Since the explosive moves of 1/5 & 1/6, you are not correct in saying there have been any spikes down. You need to have a better chart service if your data is bad and it is if you thing there were any spikes to .04 since the two dominance days.
There were not.
Like huge explosions, the two big ass candles dominate. There are no spikes to .04 so stop saying there are. Not since the explosive moves, that is. And the hammer of 12/23 is to .026, which of course rejects using .04 from consideration at all.
So, any real turn has to retest .0433 and it has. It may retest. It may not. It may hold. It may not.
We'll see.
But no .04 spikes ever happened in the timeframe in question here.
Also, I don't buy the attempt to redefine the necessary low to .04 as though its necessary. Not only did a spike to .04 never happen after the meaningful volume events, it seems to me that telling people that it did when they can check it out for themselves is not particularly wise.
.0433 it is. I recommend you change data providers if your data is that incorrect.
Again, thats not to say .0433 will hold. It just to say that, as of now, .0433 is what has so far held.
We'll see, but I kind of resent attempts to scare people into thinking .04 is the actual low.
If the charts prior to the volume events of 1/5 & 6 are to be used, .026 is the low because its a hammer.
But the volume events intevened and thats all there is to it.
What can happen if people use bad data is that they get scared into another dip. I do not approve of that kind of scare tactic, myself.
Imperial Whazoo
I keep having to chase the bid, LOL. A good sign if you are already in but its miserable to place a bid below the ask and to look up and see that, by the time you get it placed, you are already out of the money. I may actually have to step across to the ask, LOL.
Horrors.... how I hate paying retail, LOL.
Imperial Whazoo
Yeah, stockdog, don't let the fact that it handed you a loss keep the chart from telling you that its turning on you right now. It looks like its turning to me.
How big a retrace.... yet to be seen, but it is doing a turn and that was what the 407K buy was about, IMHO. Somebody deciding there was an upcoming retrace in the works and that they needed to be in place if they wanted to play it to the max.
We'll see.
Imperial Whazoo
The emotionalism of a BDP play happened but the news of actual units contracted for going forward will be a toehold at some level soon, IMHO
I mean, there is actual sales and unit sales going forward. Not just vaporware. Some kind of toehold is appropriate, IMHO, in that the forward loooking contracted for units are genuine contracted for units. Without that, the decline would not have yet hit bottom, but logically, it will have proly done so now and it should do a bit of a retrace.
Anyway, thats how it looks to me.
Yesterday, on a 5 minute, at 10:25 central time, it had a hammer and touched .0433 low. It retested to .0435 thusfar today and it may breech the tail of the hammer on the 5 minute of yesterday but the momo to the down is dissipated, IMHO, and all its doing right now is retesting the low.
Thats usually a sign that its going to retrace some. Generally a good sign is what it is when a test can not breech and/or it does not quite reach the prior low.
We'll see. As a rule, if people think its a retrace, you will see people stepping in and buying 407K types of buys a little above the eventual actual bottom because what they are telegraphing is that they figure a retrace is coming and nobody ever really gets the actual bottom.
So you see people stepping in and putting their money down at approximately the bottom.
Thats what it looks like to me, anyway.
Imperial Whazoo
Well, somebody obviously thinks that 20K at that level will pay off. Maybe. Maybe not.
Its possible that somebody knows something. Somebody always seems to know the inside skinny and a buy like that is telling. Either a complete mistake or genius at work.
Good luck to them, either way.
As for the chart in general, it looks to me like the slather is winding down and its turning away from the last couple of days of decline. Steadying itself, as it were.
If so, maybe that 20K will be 25K in a couple of days. We'll see.
Imperial Whazoo
Still defies logic, LOL.
The guys with the momey stepped up. They could have bailed on the deal. They didn't. They certainly could have done other things than sink it in this. They chose to belly up. No amount of cognitive dissonance can alter that, IMHO.
Heck... they could have bought gold coins.
To have had the bad news galore... the dissaster in the price fall.... the slams in every post.... it just makes zero sense to alledge that this is irrelevent or a tiny matter or an incosequential decision that worsens things or will not have legs or any such thing......
Just illogical.
IMHO
Imperial Whazoo
Even with 13 actual, well heeled persons bellying up to lay their money down, you still maintain the thing is a fraud?
Really?
IMHO, that conclusion defies logic.
If they could... oh, for example.... buy property on the courthouse steps.... or maybe buy a new 4 door Porsche with that money, why would they not do so rather than sinking it in a sinkhole that is obviously (to you) a fraud?
Not logical, IMHO.
The thinking I see in the bellying up to lay their money down dissolves away doubts logically. No other explanation makes much sense, IMHO.
You are entitled to think whatever you like, of course, but even so, what a guy with real money does tells a lot of internal reality, if you ask me.
Just sayin;
Imperia Whazoo
Hey settle down about it. "When in doubt, put it out".... thats the saying in soccer and it follows that the same is generally true in such things as posting on blogs.
If it ain't clear, ask the obvious and get it settled.
Hope that helps.
Imperial Whazoo
So we are still in a holding pattern. Thought I'd not missed any announcement.
Thanx
Imperial Whazoo
Well, its not going to be Monday next because thats MLK b'day and I think I'm correct about the markets being closed.
Imperial Whazoo
I must have missed it.... did there come out a confirmation of the CC being on 1/9? If so... what bat-time & what bat-place??
Just wondering aloud because, as I said, if there was a confirmation, I apparently missed it.
TIA
Imperial Whazoo
I was just going to step in and buy a bunch.... and I'm with TDA.
Are you telling me that this is another of the golden opportunities I get the fine help of NOT being able to buy through TDA?
I was with a broker who cleared thru Penson up to June last summer and I got Penson's idiotic decision about clearing pennies smack mouth in the teeth so I switched to TDA. Now I find that golden opp after golden opp gets missed due to TDA policy.
As in this particular case, you are telling me... right???
Unfrigging!!!
So... what broker is there out there that allows the trading of these types of stocks and that does not clear thru Penson?
Anyone???
Imperial Whazoo
Well, "this month" is imprecise, to say the least. If you like dead money for 15 days, then its OK, but not if the motion of the chart action is itself the goal of having bought.
If its "this month", then I'll have to be reactive to events in the chart, as they happen.
One more ticker to keep an eye on, LOL
Imperial Whazoo
Any timeline on the receipt of the $50 mill? Not only "Is there a good chance", but my question is "When.... ACTUALLY???"
I'm in but do not have a good idea of an actual timeline.
Anyone with a good, solid set of reasons buttressing an opinion, whichever way you call it, or is it just too inspecific to do more than guess?
Anyone?
TIA
Imperial Whazoo
Say folks, clear this up for me... was the post earlier this morning from a "Sister" newletter writer who purports to mirror it... right? The "sister" is the one who said POWT was GOING to be the pick.... right? And then it was SPAH in actuality.... right?
Confused
Imperial Whazoo
Wow... somebody just bought 545K shares at the ASK!!! .129
Accelerating if thats any evidence, which I'd say it is.
Imperial Whazoo
Wow... somebody just bought 545K shares at the ASK!!! .129
Accelerating if thats any evidence, which I'd say it is.
Imperial Whazoo
I hope it does just that because it will be fun to watch it if it does bounce.
If there is any value to the technology then it will not result in a totally zero value to the company.
The opportunity will be in the lap of companies like RockTenn who have a vested interest in doing something to squeeze value out of the deal that they have in the works.
If I were in their shoes, I'd be on a privat jet right now and I'd be camped out in the NF offices and reading the riot act tomorrow AM to JBII to squeeze every ounce of opportunity out of this.
I mean.... if you are a corporate player and you are not ruthless enough to milk this set of events to your advantage then you need to fire everybody in your legal department and hire some new and more ruthless wolverines.
They will force an outcome that "rescues" JBII and lands them a supremely advantaged deal of some kind.... in exchange for money to handle all the problems that will surely arise.
Bet on it.
All supposing the technology is real, that is.... and given the set of contracts and licensing and so forth that has already happened, I seriously doubt the technology is fraudulent.
JB may be a tad unsavoury but the technology is valuable and the parties to the agreements who have the most to gain are going to leverage this to their advantage, one way or another, IMHO.
Imperial Whazoo
OOps.
LOL
No. ROTFLMAO
Should have read "Day"
IW
So even the inside guy, buying prior to EOY, is under water as of this evening?
I'd guess that the price he paid reflects the price the thing eventually rebounds, albeit temporarily (probably) to. As to what transpires between now and whenever it gets back to the 1.40 he paid.... it may crater some more and it may not.
I'll tell you one thing for sure.... if anyone wants to get a position they too have to file forms about....
All supposing the technology is legit.... of course. Good day to get in and position yourself, if you are a gambler, that is.
Imperial Whazoo
The attorney for which lawsuit?
I'm not clear as regards who the connection connects to.
TIA
Imperial Whazoo
Yeah and the real sad part is that a technology that could actually help alleviate a major problem could end up getting "disappeared" into some mega major muckity muck coprorate entity and it would never see the light of day.
Very sad for the inhabitants of planet Earth....
Hope I'm wrong, though I am not particularly optimistic about it.
Imperial Whazoo
From you post:
I was told the 6 lawsuits were "advertising" and meant nothing.
How are they positioned competition wise?
Who are the other players... or are they out in front of the competition in any aspect... such as integration with major software.... databases on the power company servers... that kind of thing?
I looked at their web page for the last few minutes and did not locate info on this, so, does anyone know?
TIA
Imperial Whazoo
Thanx
Anyone in the skinny re POWT? From their chart, (And I'm in process as regards DD myself here) it looks like they have had a bad spate but they also have had mor buying of late?
Whats the scoop betty boop? Anyone in the know?
IW
Who or what is BDPS?
Imperia Whazoo
Hey stlogic -
There is a pickup in volume on this puppy in the last 2 days. You seem to be the only one in any kind of "know" as regards this one so, what do you hear or know?
TIA
Imperial Whazoo
Proly figured they could ride it down to 1.78 and make $$ illicitly that way. On the other hand, if they piled in that heavily and they are wrong, then katy bar the door if there is a need for these yahoos to cover.
Here's hoping they have to cover, LOL.
Imperial Whazoo
Yeah, he hasn't PRed the second of the two sales deals of the week, has he? So that says there is another coming to formally cover it. Right?
Imperial Whazoo
Yeah, I took profits and am sitting there watching today & yesterday. The 7/21 channel guided me and, when it failed to hold the break back into it last week, I saw it as a headfake that I happened to trade correctly, based on my basic read of the momo of the stock.
Then today, it firmly rejected the low of the intermediate high volume day of 8/5 almost to the tee. That, and the rejection of the 382 struck me. Right on it. Pretty devious.
So I put my thinking cap on and asked the question of whether the candle meant anything.
I am not certain, mind you, but I think its a strong case to be made that the momo is still in play and the 2.39 is going to get a retest and that makes today's candle a hammer rather than a hanging man.
As a textbook hanging man, its not at the actual top, I might point out. So that alone makes asking the question valid.
So I decided we are staging for a second stab at the 2.39.
Whether that comes before we see 1.78 or not, we'll see. Based on the strong greens last week, I lean towards another stab at the 7/21 channel lows first.
Just my take.
Peace.
Imperial Whazoo
Well, what I ACTUALLY did was more detailed, and I could be wrong in attempting to employ a channel of the 8/5 day. I'll grant you & jimminknee that.
What swayed me today was two things, and basically, after seeing them, I did a re-look and tried to theorize a reason why it rejected the 2.13 of 8/5.
Reasons I re-looked:
1.) the rejection of the 2.13 low today that ended up as either a hammer or a hanging man
2.) the 4 strong volume days that I think got confirmed by the hammer day today that rejected the channel low.
Together, I became convinced this afternoon that this was going to be more complex & that the candle today is a hammer and not a hanging man. Could be wrong, though. I'll grant that.
As is always the case in charts, its a very devious world, LOL, and I could be seeing ghosts, LOL.
That said, Let me reveal my doubts, LOL. May as well be open about the possibility odf reading it wrongly here. Here's my discomfort zone with what I concluded must have happened today.
If I stay true to a volume day being the definer of the current trend, (which is key to the Tommy O'Brien way of doing modified Fibs & Gartleys), then the BIG defining day is the volume day of 7/21/11, which had a channel of 2.39 high and 1.50 low.
That makes my pointing to 8/5 as secondary.
If 7/21 is the benchmark, then the model is this:
1.78 is definitely the target as you stated because the close the last two days was actually a rejection of the low side of the 7/21 volume channel. It tried to re-enter the 7/21 channel; failed, and the action today is a hanging man rather than a hammer. Thats the doubt side of it.
If the key event is that the re-entry and subsequent exit of the 7/21 channel was a head fake, the you & jimmiknee are right & 1.78 is the pivot.
So, you could very well be right, which would mean that closing today at 2.30 is not all that good because it represents a failure of the punch out of the high of the 7/21 defined volume channel.
I had bought JBII last week on the belief that the 7/21 low of the channel was going to succomb, and there were two days when it did just that (12/27 & 12/28).
Using the approach I outlined, I've gotten to where I'll often buy right below the punch out of a volume channel top, which I did with marvelous success last week. I look at the volumes and trade it as primed to go when it closed poised just below a channel high or a channel low.
I look at it as favorable when it stages a couple of cents below the low side of a channel. Thats what held me in good stead last week, by the way.
But the fact that the take out of the 7/21 volume channel low (2.39) failed to hold this week is not good.
So you could be right. Or, it could be a war where the candle is a hammer, staged once again, just below the 7/21 low and obeying the volume channel (a secondary channel) of 8/5.
I rethought it today once I saw the rejection of the 2.13 low. I saw it as another stab staging to assault the low of the 7/21 major channel.
But again, if I'm wrong, the pivot is probably 1.78. We'll see.
And one thing that impressed me was the the volume in the 4 green candles.
So, you and jimmiknee could be right. Its either a hammer inside a smaller wave or a hanging man.
If its in a hanging man and if the failure to hold above the 7/21 low is the key, then its going back to the 1.78, like you said.
Bear in mind, I thought this was a punch out of the 7/21 low last week and I traded this puppy on that belief last week, quite successfully. I would trade it again at 1.78, to be sure, just like you, but even so, I was struck by the way the 2.13 from 8/5 held today and I'm going to watch closely to see if there is another assault on the low of the 7/21 channel.
We'll see.
Imperial Whazoo
boca, use 12/15 low & 12/28 high for your Fib and you get a 618 of 1.78.
Obviously, you calling support at 1.75 lines up to that pretty nicely, but I don't see 1.78 happening, my friend.
See the channel at the left defining the volume day that pertains? Look left to 8/5/11. This volume day means to me that the channel is 2.13 to 2.93, which means that the pullback today is a test of the lower end of that channel. Since it rejected the low today, (it held), this means the candle today is a hammer and not a hanging man.
To get to the 1.78 618, it would need to defeat the low of the volume channel. Ain't gonna happen.
Had it not had 4 strong green candles in the last 6 days, all collectively possessing superior volume to what happened on the two days since, I just do not see 1.78 getting tagged, and I see the test that is the hammer tail of today as evidence that the channel is going to hold.
IMHO, all its capable of right now in Fib terms is a test of the 382, and that is what happened today.
It tested both the low of the volume channel running back to 8/5 and it rejected the 382.
After 4 strong volume greens in the last 6 days, that means to me that the action today supports more to the upside inside of this volume channel.
Thats my take on it.
Peace
Imperial Whazoo
I use modified custom Gartley waves & for info, listen to Tommy O'Brien at http://www.tfnn.com & buy his book, (ISBN: 987-097635291-4)
"The Art of Timing the Trade"
I don't do Elliot, FWIW.
Imperial Whazoo
And another thing that shows a lot.
Got a daily chart? Look left on it back to 8/5/11. high: 2.93 & low: 2.13
Draw a channel to infinity that has a low of 2.13 & a hig of 2.93
The low today just barely took the 2.13 low of that channel out, didn't it? But it did not hold that low, did it.
If there was work to do, I think it did that work by touching that low ands refusing to stay that low.
So, IMHO, it did a lot of work today by fully retracing the channel and refusing tos stay ther.
And thats another reason why my mind's eye sees the candle today as a hammer. It did the necessary work today and rejected the low, closing fulliy inside the channel that was the last high volume day in this range.
The volume on 8/5 was 506K, and the chart shows that a low was put in on two modestly high volume days since then:9/28 & 11/22
The chart says to me that there are some folks that got in and were under the bus since 8/5 until the recent price action.
The climb represented by the 4 green candles of 12/21 thru 12/27 were clear evidence that the climate in which JBII is going forward is now definitively improved and, when the folks who have been under the bus since 8/5 see the trading action today, where the long tail is a touch (but rejection) of penetrating the low of the cahannel, I think the obvious conclusion is that this puppy is going up to, at least, test the top of the channel.
If it tests the high of the channel defined looking left, then it will test 2.93 sometime in the foreseeable future.
Now, it needs to pull back to 1.60 for there to be symmetry in the A B C that started on 12/15
I will be very surprised if that is what happens. If it needs to be symmetrical, though, it needs to get back down to 1.60. And, for the sake of being detailed: the 786 happens to be 1.56. Within shouting sistance of 1.60 as a puulback point, isn't it.
so it coud happen and the 786 could be the pivot, but to do this, the channel would have to be descimated and I just think the strong four green candles tell us that the new reality is that a pullback to 1.60 that violates the channel just is not going to happen.
So, its just a metter of opinion whether that is what is going to happen. I don't see it happening.
I see the pullback today being a strong repudiation of any attempt to retrace this channel and thats just the way I see it.
For however long it takes, I think we will be bound in a channel that is defined by the high volume day looking left (8/5), which makes for a range with 2.13 on the low end and 2.93 on the high end.
That's another reason why I see today as a failed test of the low of this volume-defined channel. I see it a a hammer in an intermediate wave that is walking up to test the top. Whether it takes the 2.93 out when it gets up there remains to be seen, but in the mean time, I look at it this way.
BTW... if the chart is tracing out an A B C with the LOD of 1.29 on 12/15 being the start point and the HOD yesterday being material to the math, then the math says to look for 1.30 in the next leg.
A leg = 1.30, starting at 1.29.
C leg = .... If 1.30 is used from today's LOD of 2.10, then than means that the eventual top of the A B C is going to need to be 3.40, which obviously means that the channel high of 2.93 is destined to be busted out.
Not predicting that, mind you, but never ignore the math.
Imperial Whazoo
Whether its a hammer depends on what you use as the wave from which to call it.
I think its is a hammer. The very idea that, to be a hammer in this instance, it has to traverse all the way back down the 382, 618 & 786 Fibs is ludicrous, IMHO.
And actually, it could not be a more perfect retrace to the 382 Fib. Folks, actually bother to chart it using Fibs and you will see that, as regards the degree of pullback that is the definition of this particular wave, it pulled precicely back to the 382, retraced the body at close, and left a long tailed hammer, perfect as can be. It all depends on what is defined as the time period context of the apprpriate wave.
In point of fact, today's candle is a long tail one that pulled back in this leg all the way to the 382, almost on the button.
Here's how to stop making the mistake of missing hammers due to a mistaken definition of the wave to use.
Draw the lower end of the Fib retracement tool at the low of the day of 12/15. The other end of the tool's line should be on the HOD of yesterday.
So, the low is 1.29 & the high is 2.59, which obviously makes the wave form of the 382 chart out at 2.08.
So, the wave is 1.29 to 2.59, and the 382 is 2.08. Thats your correct contexxt for ascertaining candle formations. Which makes today's candle a hammer because...... Guess what?
LOD today in a long wicked hammer candle is 2.10 (perfect would have been 2.08, to repeat myself)
So there's your usable wave: 2.08 is the calculated 382 & it did a hammer at a 2.10 tail. Pretty obvious. The head of the hammer is, for all practical purpopses, at the perfect spot and the tail is the rejection of the LOD today. Exactly what a hammer needs to be when the correct wave context is applied.
I sat at the bid today trying to get in and I missed it by 2 cents. You really need to learn to properly draw Fibs, IMHO. Might help keep you from making this kind of mistake (missing the hammer candle today due to a mistaken definition of terms, LOL).
Here's my advise: Let the amplitude of the actual waveform define the context. Works far better than choosing an arbitrary length of time such as a day or a week as your chart confines. Let the actual chart tell you what context needs to be because its pretty obvious that anyone can always fiddle with the length of time they use and the actual candle formation that occurs can be overlooked. Using only a day, for example, is just an inapplicable constraint.
Try using timeframes than make mathematical sense. For example.... there are 390 minutes in a trading day. Have you ever bothered to wonder why it makes sense to use 20 periods in an intraday chart when 20 obviously does not factor into 390 without a remainder?
Try using 15 or 26 periods for your intraday charts rather than 20 periods.
I have a setup that uses 3, 5, 6, 10, 13, 15, 26, 30, 39, 65 & 78, for example. All factor into 390 with no remainder, BTW.
So, I watched the Fib lines today and the volumes at the various factor periods mentioned..... and the fact that it pulled back to an almost perfect long tailed hammer on the 382 line is the definition of the event.
Non-conventional, I'll grant, but it works, especially when volume is watched using time periods like those I note above. Volume events at these various periodicties are very telling intraday, especially when the Fibs are on the same chart intraday. Try it yourself.
Just a novel idea that is, in essence, thinking outside the box in order to better see patterns and how they relate to Fibs.
So thats why I say its a hammer. Use the .382, .500, .618, .786 & 1.270 Fibs as the dictators of the amplitude. Draw volume using factors of the 390 minute days. Learn to use these.
Peace.
Imperial Whazoo
Yeah, I liked the way it stabalized, too. Was concerned it was not yet at its bottom but it looks to me like there was EOYy tax loss selling in spades that was accommodated by the last pump. Not that they don't have a genuinely interesting technology, but they did pay the pumper mentioned in the posted article. Article was very informative, mind you. No complaints about the technology being without a genuineness, which sometimes happens, IMHO. After reading it, I pretty much think its a real technology, whereas I have to admit I had doubts prior to it being posted here.
That said, in that it held up well and actually put in a real bottom, IMO, I bet there is a climb in the new year with new positions getting taken.
L8r
Imperial Whazoo
I've been watching out of one eye, LOL. Did there show up conversation and/or rumor about where the 1st site was going to be?
I recall the info on the public meetings and the excellent report that the decks were all cleared. Straight ahead in whatever county they intend to be in.... that was what I got out of it, but I must have missed the refered to rumor that apparently named a location..
So, that said, where is Madison County?
TIA
Imperial Whazoo
Yeah, that's a nice hammer.
I suspect that the hammer in JBII will see some follow thru.
As regards the general markets tomorrow, I hope the markets run tomorrow on low volume. We'll see. But then, on low vol days, its hard to predict.
Imperial Whazoo
yep. just found it myself. too late in the day for me to have jumped in, but it looks to be some kind of event. can't find anything to account for it yet.
you find any explanation yet?
Imperial Whazoo