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Trying to time a bounce in this market could be tricky and not the right move. The spx has only moderate support at 3100. I looked at the 5 yr weekly chart of the spx (see link). There is a good correlation between that chart and the this 5 yr rally.
A violation of 3100 takes us to the 200 dma on the 5 yr weekly chart, which is currently sitting at 2633.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
So did your buy order get filled or are you hoping to short the bounce.
there could be a short lived bounce here tomorrow that could last for about a day. Personally, i'd like to avoid the thrill of catching a falling knife.
The pullback so far is small compared to the recent run from 2400 to 3400 on the spx. Therefore I fully expect a fall to 3000 before a bounce. Barring any interference from the fed.
So. Do you think this is the start of a bigger correction, based on the market action this week. Also keeping in mind other deteriorating factors such as treasury yields, debt, ....
Vix has made the highest low in 5 yrs this week. Trying to bust thru 20.
The rally from 09 to present has given a new meaning to term parabolic rise. Looking at your chart a top should have occurred at 2800. But here we are at almost 3400 and they are begining to talk 4K.
spx 3220 - 3210 is somewhat of a medium support level. Strong support is at 3100. I think we go there by mid to late february. While everyone is expecting a rally to new highs. Expect the unexpected. That is how it started in 2000. A lot of folks bought the slight pullback at that time, buying internet stocks at the 150 - 200 level. Those stocks dropped to single digits and even pennies a couple of years later. There is an old saying that history repeats .......
In the past months these down gaps in the U.S. markets were bought and ended up marginally down or even up that same day. Let us see if that trend continues tomorrow. If it does not it could mean the start of a new trend (down).
Maybe its not a flu. Remember when aids first came out. It was called all kinds of things. such as GRID, .....etc
My short in QQQ is till in the red. It will be a long time before you see a smile on the faces of short traders. As we all know most (including myself) thought 2800 was the top. Here we are 20 % above it. Let us see what transpires in the next few days.now below LT
Oil is approaching 50 after getting rejected from the LT downtrend line. Also below LT support line. I see a rally from 50 to about 60. A decisive break of 50 will usher in the 30's. That could have a huge negative impact on the markets.
c overed my short in QQQ for a loss. will wait till middle of next week for a change in trend.
The atmosphere is very much like in 2000 when short squeezes were killing short position until the long decline began in earnest. Fed cannot support the markets against all odds otherwise they would have prevented the 2K bubble from bursting not to mention other bubbles. A crash need to occur in the hyper inflated bond markets as well.
10% selloff could start any day. Keeping my fingers X'd.
current market euphoria looking like back in 2k. No fundamental reason to go up except fed manipulation. Almost tempted to go long but believe a 10 % correction will start this month. Holding 200 shares QQQ short at 216.95
I have covered for a small loss. Only had a 100 shares. But do believe that there will be a selloff in January.
Shorted QQQ at a little above 22.5 with a small position. NQ is displaying weakness could reverse tomorrow.
All it will take for the mkts to reverse course is for me to initiate a long position.
Even if a deal is not reached, I am sure some sort of a statement will be spun off as positive news and the sleigh bells will start ringing.
According to yahoo. QQQ hit a low of 193.785. Is that a misprint.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QQQ?p=QQQ
Oil is in a long term down trend. As consolidation is taking place from the high of July 2008. $68 is the maximum upside target and decreasing. Although I do not believe we will see it any time soon. At this point it will be $42 or lower, in the next six months before 68 or more like 60. Resistance building up at the price point of $60 and $51 is looking weaker and weaker, but will act as short term support.
I am not a dem. But, when will Bush apologize to the american people for sending troops to Iraq (when there were no weapons of mass destruction found anywhere) and Afghanistan (where we had no business). Resulting in thousands of american lives lost. This is all politics. Everyone has their own share of dirty stuff.
MKTS will turn down as soon as I enter a long position. LOL
The Fut's are down. Let the party begin. Usher in 2020 1K below ATH's.
So then can you tell me when the recession is to be expected. All the Gurus who were predicting the recession to start in the fall of 2017 have been made to look like idiots.
No. The recession cannot be prevented forever but the fed has shown it can prevent it for a very long time (the next 5-10 yrs) if they wanted to. Recessionary forecast are based on #'s or data. The fed has shown it has the power to alter that and prevent its onset. Example: yield curve inversion became a non issue and monetary policy was diverted to pull the curve out of inversion. Thereby baffling everyone
Please go on record and give us a three month time frame when you think the recession was start. Gracias.
I dont think there will be a global recession as it has been normally defined. Too many people are short and are looking forward to a market crash. The fed is aware of this as well and will not allow the shorts to prosper if it has its way.
BTW global recession was prophesized by the likes of Nolan, rogers etc.... by 2017. Then they changed to 2018 then 2019 and now 2020. Now they are left scratching their tails.
Is this commentary taking into account the now open manipulation by the fed to keep the mkts propped. I think not. Each time the mkts enter a bearish scenario. The fed comes in to intervene. By buying futures and easing monetary policy to favor the mkts.
Jerome Powell eventually turned out to be a chump (just like his predecessors). A lot of ho hummm and then turns over to keep his job.
Vix is signalling a short term reversal in the mkts.
Is there any chance of that 10% decline to sub 2700 that people have been talking for months.
All indices above the 50 ma. Good chance we each 2955. Although volume has dried up. Monday should be a reversal day.
Bots taking over. Hope some of the positions being replaced by bots are VP's and managers etc.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wells-fargo-banking-jobs-automation-174719853.html
3000 - 3005 is maybe all we get.
I see a cup and handle formation almost complete for the spx in the months of aug and sept. Pointing to a target of 3175.
The NY fed is pumping 75 billion / day into the system thru oct 10. That should hold up the mkt pretty good.
Stocks will react positively to the fed announcement. Fed will make sure the statements are dovish.
mkt could easily go to new highs and then some with the fed liquifying the system like crazy.
BTW, I have been looking at the vix. It is on the verge of a long term breakout.
Will 3020 be offered?
when is the 10 -13 % drop that was expected in mid to late september.
cancelled this order prior to pen. Will wait and see. next resistance level is at 194-195