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doesn't that really burn you? all along, they were continuing to dilute from April until the last report, all the while saying that they already had enough cash until spring 2015.
http://www.barchart.com/opinions/stocks/AMBS
The chart looks great. not. The technicals look great, not. So, the retest will continue. They do not have to proceed quickly, and it is better if they do not. So at the end of 6 weeks or so, the pps will have based or retested. I would bet on retesting.
The market is a discounting mechanism. It will discount the dilution of the shares. Note, that usually, these dilutions occur in the penny land without any announcement.
Then every three months, you get a notice that dilution already occurred. Imagine where the pps would be if we actually were able to know in real time that they were continuing to dilute, which they said that they would not need to do, because they had enough cash.
The company took the money, the dilution will follow. $800 million. I spoke to a senior FDA official a week ago. He quoted that number as the cost of bringing a new drug to market.
Yes, I know about orphans and what not, but well, a few million is not going to do much of anything.
In general, the retest will last 6 weeks. So there are three more weeks to go. The pps is holding up well, in the face of the short cash position and the dilution announced today.
If the company was going to get a grant to cover thigns, it would not have signed up for this stock issue.
Why did AMBS get cash from Dominion and not Lincoln? It is pretty much the same cash, but well, I am curious if anyone has thoughts on that.
There go 37 million more shares of dilution.
This is what retests look like. a nice BROAD based W would be great for the stock. That will shake out the weak hands.
If the retest does not hold that speaks to a fundamental weakness.
As far as the cash goes, the words from GC noted that they had enough cash for some time, certainly not in the next few weeks to a couple of weeks.
If they were going to start a eltoprazine trial this year, they would have many more milestones met.
They should get a go ahead at some point for MANF in RP. That will be a big up.
There will be no Lympro revenue of any sort that is large enough to pay for the diesel in a placer gold mining operation for more than a week or so, anytime soon.
Now, an announcement of revenue and the resultant pop would be reason to sell as the reality will not meet the expectations by any means.
The market will see the need to raise cash essentially this week or the next as a negative and respond. The cash raise will continue to be dilutive as the recent post on the ONGOING DILUTION shows.
DILUTION IS ONGOING.
Now if the current dilution rate continues it will take a year to get to a Billion shares in the float, but well, that is another 21% dilution. ( IF the DILUTION noted in the last 6 months continues at the same rate. ) Note that rate is SLOWER than the rate of the last two years, which is a dilution from 180 million to the current 799 million or a 200+% increase over two years.
So that is something, but I would bet the dilution rate of the last 6 months is the outlier.
I wonder, just what is Lincoln going to get in return for the money?
a. Elephant tusks made of real ivory
b. horse meat
c. a new Chevy
d. LOTS OF STOCK THAT IS PRINTED BY AMBS diluting shareholder value.
e all of the above.
yep, this will cause the retest of .067. I think that Monday sometime will be the time to buy actually. Maybe Tuesday. An order for .068 should get filled if it is not too big. That sounds like a very good thing to do.
IOW, they must raise cash, or get a grant in this quarter.
aha, well, indeed it does, in this study.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/25369767/?i=1&from=mesencephalic%20astrocyte-derived%20neurotrophic%20factor
This says that MANF by itself will not work for PD. both cdnf and manf together may work.
and back again
.0791 now.
http://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT02017340
This is part of an ongoing Phase III study. See the link.
you have obviously not been reading my posts.
only the shadow knows when it will start, or maybe you could re read my last few posts.
aha, the interim peak has not been topped ( after the rebound from the low ) Whether you like it or not, the pps is going down, a death cross ensued, and even on the 2 year weekly chart, the very long term uptrend is now DOWN.
lol.
Also, a successful retest is a VERY good thing. I would be happy to buy on a successful retest. I would not be happy to buy on the day of a death cross or the breaking of an 18 month trend by a second measure. Booo death cross, boo breaking long term trend, yea successful retest.
LWOL.
The pps continues to rocket up there, towards a RETEST.
http://www.barchart.com/opinions/stocks/AMBS
Aha, well, I will see you down at around 6 cents and WELL based before any triggers are pulled. Check the chart, the barchart opinion and you will see that the retest is in place. I did not have a chance to read today's release but I see the pps is not up.
This retest should be an excellent time to buy. When the 50 day crosses below the 200 day that is one of the most negative signs you can have.
There may not be a retest, but well, I am not betting against it.
Now, there is more than likely positive news ahead, so it will be a good time to buy.
With this price action the VERY long term trend on the weekly price chart also broke down.
http://ih.advfn.com/exchanges/USOTC/AMBS/chart/streaming?period=10
You have to enter weekly once you click on that link to get the weekly chart and draw the trend line, which is now broken.
The traders are speaking, the long term trend is not UP any longer, and it had been up for a long time for a biotech stock.
.0962 50 day MA
.0972 200 day MA.
the 50 day MA is lower than the 200 day MA.
aha, Manf was not on JN's mind in dec 2013. lol.
There is a really big hole in that article, it is the absence of MANF.
Now, that does not mean that MANF will be denied orphan status, it just means that JN did not think that AMBS warranted inclusion in his article on orphan status, and he is one of the biggest AMBS backers.
Now, biotechs are BEST when anticipating news, and so while the orphan status indication is not going to come tomorrow, an anticipation by the market that it will come is great for those who want to be in the stock.
Regardless of the presence of that graph showing increased chances for eventual approval, I have more reservations that MANF will ever get to the clinic.
Some will say that means I am against MANF. That is not true, you never know until you test, and they will be testing MANF. Right now, that is where the value lies.
oh sorry, the MACD is positive now, it was at par the other day.
.09755 50 day
.09721 200 day
On this chart, MACD remains negative.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMBS&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p41158873564
One or two more days of sideways action and the death cross will ensue. The pps is below the 200 day, so that would take some doing to avoid a death cross.
There is clearly no break either way yet.
I would still be surprised if the .067 did not retest. If it does, it is not a bad thing, it it retests and holds it could not be better for the stock.
what brought on this realistic scenario? The tea leaves depend on whether or not the death cross ensues and the MACD crosses over. We are at an inflection point.
Now, your prediction is NOT out of line, but right now, it could go either way.
The pps is certainly not hammering anything at the moment. A SUCCESSFUL retest of the pps is a VERY good thing. I am not sure if the retest will be successful, we will have to see. right now the pps is in a range. After such a dramatic fall in pps, the move is to base, unless you are an AMBS cultist and then of course the pps will go right back up.
.0984 50 day MA .0972 200 day MA. They are getting pretty close to one another. the MACD IS at par, and so a continued pps at this level will cause a roll over there as well.
what are the details on that 153 million share issue?
well ,first of all, he is not talking about AMBS. Secondly, most studies have great numbers at first that rather rapidly decline. However, we all hope that numbers like this hold up. Of course, if they did, then the meager revenue that Lympro might garner would go away.
the pps of a $60 million company can be manipulated pretty easily. I believe that is what Sol has been saying. At the latest, in early 2015, the company will need the facility.
In the meantime, researchers like Fumi who is working on WS, can find ways around using MANF. As Fumi has done.
yes, according to the longs, the pps is always going up. That means that somewhere around half the time, they are wrong. That is what makes this so easy.
now, a blockbuster announcement, like a grant would change everything. Its been two years since the company reported on the last study that got a grant, And so it is almost three years since they got their last grant.
Publish or perish. And if you can't find anything good to publish, it severely hurts your credibility. They would not be continuing with this Lympro study if the number of patients studied to date made a difference.
Finally, using any evaluation method, Lympro Ad v healthy controls has never been in the 90s sen and spec, so I am not holding my breath on better results.
JN is certainly free to report that the company expects better results, but that is not offering a sentient opinion. Do the same thing and expecting better results is not a healthy way to proceed.
the pattern means nothing unless there is confirmation. That is basic technical analysis. AND there was no confirmation.
Meanwhile, the 50 day is .0989 and the 200 day is .0971.
as the death cross ensues, the MACD will also roll over.
tick tock, tick tock.
but there are no quotes, because there were none. I did say that it was on the weekly, but you needed confirmation. And it is not on the daily. The second statement I made after I checked the daily chart.
Now, if you take the weekly, there is still time for confirmation, If you take the daily, then there is no confirmation.
As far as things go, on the daily, the retest is ongoing.
Frankly, we will not know until a short time passes, if Ambs winds up in a V bottom, it will be one of those VERY rare moves.
retest is onging.
While the 50 MA on the weekly chart is BELOW the 200 da MA, on the daily chart it is above. a retest will result in a death cross since the current 50 day MA on the daily chart is .10 v .097 for the 200 day MA. Essentially, the 50 day MA = the 200 Day MA at this point.
It looks like the market is putting the hammer down, on the pps, and an elephant is sitting on it as well, and maybe there is some shorting going on, you never know.
maybe the retest will finish today? I doubt it. but we are out of the 8s and into the 7s now.
I will put my accuracy rate of predictions up against anyone. When I write that they delete those as off topic so I just edited it.
But I do not mind saying it. It is true.
lol, you can go back and copy paste that statement I guess. I did not make it, nor did I edit it.
If you had listened to me, you would have sold at 18-19 cents. Sorry that you are at or below your cost basis, and trying to defend your stock.
I am just an observer and occasional participant.
When the stock bases, it will be a buy again.