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After that report, we may wake up to a quarter point cut on Monday am.
Buzz
What happened to all those hurricanes? Didn't the "experts" predict 4 would make landfall in US this year?
Buzz
I will say this, from the bearish, sarcastic camp. I heard an analyst on CNBC this week say that technology stocks represented the best bargain in ten years. The guy looked kinda young, so I can only guess he was in the mailroom in 2003 when LRCX was at 8.50, YHOO at 6.00, etc, etc, etc. I think tech was a much better bargain at that time, lol.
Buzz
If he does, make sure to get very very long at today's close.
;)
Buzz
Dow currently at 13,155. Closer to 14 than 12 for the moment. May get as low as 12,800 in the next week or so, but will rally from there. 12,600 hard bottom, IMO.
Buzz
Scenarios:
Fed leaves rates where they are. Market knee jerk is down for a day or two, then "hey, things must not be that bad". Market rally.
Fed cuts 1/4: Market gets what it think it wants, we get a little rally, then trade sideways into earnings.
Fed cuts 1/2: Knee jerk, way up, yay they cut rates. Then reality sets in. Shit, they suddenly cut a 1/2? Things must be a lot worse than we think. Tankola.
Buzz
Welcome to the board. How did you find us?
When all is said and done, the market really couldn't give a shit about the subprime problem. It's a minor burp in the overall economy. The Republicans have 3 things going for them and that's it:
1. A strong stock market.
2. A pretty decent overall economy with low unemployment.
3. Fear of a terrorist attack, and the belief that they're keeping us safe from a constant threat.
That's it. And the easiest for them to control is number 1.
THE FED PUMPED 31 BILLION INTO THE FINANCIAL MARKETS TODAY! After the big drop yesterday, they weren't about to let the markets crash.
Don't fight the fed.
Buzz
Dow isn't goign anywhere near 12,000 anytime soon, IMO. Should see 14,000 again in the next 6 weeks.
Buzz
I actually think they will cut, then we'll get a rally. If they don't, the language for October will be important. However, they did state today "although we may cut rates in Sept, we don't see the same pressing need the market does".
Now, when everyone finishes interpreting that, it may simply mean the subprime situation doesn't realy affect anything but the subprime market, so get over it. The economy is relatively strong but inflation slightly higher than the fed would like. So when all is said and done, at some point, the market will just say screw it and go up.
If it does tank, it will bottom out in Oct, IMO, for a nice rally into the new year.
Buzz
Have you ever driven behind, near, or around an NG powered vehicle? Some of the shuttles at LAX are powered by NG. It smells like Brig's bathroom after a binge of Mexican food and Guiness.
Buzz
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Though recent distress in financial markets has "deepened" the housing slump, the overall economy has seen little impact so far, the U.S. Federal Reserve said Wednesday. That assessment, contained in the latest Beige Book, suggests that while a rate cut in two weeks may still be likely, officials may not see the same need for aggressive easing that financial markets expect.
Don't be surprised if the markets close green today after the beige book. All the markets care about right now is a rate cut. All else is meaningless. If the fed hints at a rate cut, we could easily see new highs on the SPX in the coming weeks.
Buzz
Zeptepi is an Ancient Egyptian term. Mythologically, zeptepi refers to THE first time - the time when the world was created and the Gods walked the earth. This was a time of perfection, when all was well and everything worked as it should.
3. No political debates during trading hours.
Blame AG. It's amazing to me that in all of this, no one seems to point the finger at him, excpet maybe Cramer during one of his meltdowns. He ENCOURAGED people to do just that to feed the economy. Personally, I think we're still a year away from seeing the real fall out from this.
Buzz
Unless we have a black Monday. ;) eom
Write the damn checks and deny everything, lol.
Buzz
Capital One may have additional problems. A friend of mine just sold his car to a guy who had financing through capital one auto financing. He went to deposit the check at Wells Fargo, who said they'd place a 4 to 6 week hold on the check because they've had problems with capital one checks.
Buzz
Lacker speaking at 12:30 EDT will be the key for tomorrow. If he hints the fed will cut in Sept, look for a big short sqeeze. If not, could be a big down day, especially if Redbook retail numbers are weak in the am.
Buzz
I don't own any data at current time, haven't even looked at them in a few months. I wouldn't be a buyer right now.
Buzz
I just feel fortunate I wasn't on your dear john list! I guess that means you still love me.
Buzz
If financials continue to rally, which is still in question since the discount rate doesn't have much to do with anything, so Bernanke just threw everyone a bone on friday, but if they do continue to rally, AACC is one to watch, possibly buy here.
Buzz
HDSN one to watch. They posted a net loss due to one time charges related to debt repurchase. Without that, they actually had a 50% increase in net earnings for the Q. With the recent heatwave on the east coast, their third Q numbers should be very strong, their seasonally strongest. Buy any time and just wait for a run ahead of early Nov. earnings.
Buzz
I always do. eom
UBET, HAUP, TSTC on close watch now. eom
Well, one would have to think DATA's a buyout target at current prices. They have features in their suite of products that would enhance oracle or eres. As I said months ago, however, ERES is the cream of the crop in that sector and wish I had held from 6.50. DATA's burn rate means more dilution for them to ever get to cash flow positive.
Buzz
Back from vacation. Did I miss much, or just the usual boring early August trading? ;)
Buzz
Outta here on vaca now for two weeks. Back on the 20th. Be safe all.
Buzz
FBR Analyst Cuts AHM Target to Zero
Thursday August 2, 4:16 pm ET
Friedman Billings Ramsey Analyst Cuts Price Target on American Home Mortgage to Zero
NEW YORK (AP) -- A Friedman Billings Ramsey analyst on Thursday said American Home Mortgage Investment Corp.'s stock is probably worthless.
Friedman Billings Ramsey analyst Paul J. Miller Jr. cut his price target on the Melville, N.Y.-based mortgage lender's shares to zero from $3. American Home Mortgage Investment specialized in home equity and so-called Alt-A loans, the latter of which refers to loans in which borrowers do not have to document their income and assets
You make a good yes man. eom
My call was "closer to 1400 than 1500" and we tagged 1440 today, one day after I thought.
Buzz
SPY calls, weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
Started scaling into some SPY longs via options at 1440 support on SPX. That may be the bottom, but if it breaks, the 1410 area should be the next support.
Missed it by ONE day, lol, the closer to 1400 than 1500. Oh well.
Buzz
Or one day. eom
Nice reaction on RADN today. Might look at MTEX as well after their earnings miss. Good company for a longer term hold.
Buzz
You are ao friggin weird. eom
Lst's just say they are both "soft" in key areas.
Buzz
Edit, 20x current rev. Fat, drunk fingers. Now I know what Brig feels like.
Buzz
PLC, never reports earnings as early as the 2nd, but decided to this Q. My guess is they have EU approval for renalguard to co-announce, and update on fda approval. Stock is trading at less than 2x cash with a minimal burn rate, changed to new distributor for laser line during mid q last q so new sales won't kick in until this q, and renal guard sales are projected at about 200x current revenue.
Buz