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# of Estimates 2
High Estimate -0.06
Low Estimate -0.16
Consensus Estimate -0.11
http://www.zacks.com/research/report.php?type=estimates&t=PEIX
Did I Miss Something,Or Does the Street Not Go By Analyst Est.
Conf. Call
I Found It Funny,that Some One Dumped All Those Shares In the
Last Second
300K Shrs.,An Attempt to Paint the Tape
At the Same Time Some One Gobbled them All Up,Above the
Opening Price.Keeping the Day Positive by .06%
Not Sure,but It Held A/H
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/peix/after-hours
We Find Out In the Morning
Pacific Ethanol Bests Q3 Expectations
http://www.citiadr.idmanagedsolutions.com/news/global_story.idms?type=scrolling&ID_NEWS=252562173
Pacific Ethanol Third Quarter Results
http://www.pacificethanol.net/site/_documents/investors/PEIXQ32012EarningsReleaseFinal.pdf
Im Holding 70,000 shrs. @ this Time
Better be Its Good,Or I Vote Against Any Shrs. for Management
Hedging On Q2 Financials
EDGAR ONLINE - PACIFIC ETHANOL, INC. (PEIX) - 10-Q - 8/14/2012
Commodity contracts Cost of goods sold $ 265
EDGAR ONLINE - PACIFIC ETHANOL, INC. (PEIX) - 10-Q - 8/14/2012
Commodity contracts Cost of goods sold $ (145 )
EDGAR ONLINE - PACIFIC ETHANOL, INC. (PEIX) - 10-Q - 8/14/2012
Commodity contracts Cost of goods sold $ 91
EDGAR ONLINE - PACIFIC ETHANOL, INC. (PEIX) - 10-Q - 8/14/2012
Commodity contracts Cost of goods sold $ 163
Im Pretty Sure They Made $ On this
Purchase Commitments – At June 30, 2012, the Company had fixed-price purchase contracts with its suppliers to purchase $5,465,000 of ethanol
Comparing
RENN,
1.Chinese Co.
a.Audits are non Verifyable
b.a VIE Meaning,you dont really Own the Stock & the co. Can be Stolen from shr. holders
All Chinese Stocks are Worthless,Including BIDU until
they Comply With SECs Inspections Of Audits.
Not a Fair Comp,Considdering PEIX did nearly $1 Billion in
Rev. Last Year & It is Verifyable
Thier Audits 10Ks & Qs are not Falsified Like Chinese co.s
Just Saying,Facts are Facts
US listed Chi Cos are Scam ridden,with Many Proven Scams
When Facts are stated & Verifyable Links are next to it,it is hardly Pumping.
It is Statement of Fact,with a Ref.
Cost Advantages In Q3
1.Yeast Tech
production yield 2 cents per gallon of ethanol produced
Yeast .02c x Q3 Production of 40,000,000 Gallons = $800,000
2.corn oil and production yield but can run from 4 to 7 cents per gallon of ethanol produced.
Magic Valley capacity to produce 60 million gallons per year/15 million per Quarter
Either
15,000,000 x .04c = $600,000
or
15,000,000 x .07c = $1,050,000
3.West Coast Ethanol Pricing adds too .163c
West Coast Ethanol $2.545
Ethanol $2.381
West Coast Ethanol
.163c x 40,000,000 per Quarter = $6.52 mln
4.Milo Cost Advantage at 1/3 Milo to 2/3 Corn Ratio
= 3.8c Per Gallon x 40,000,000 Gallons
= $1.52 Mln
5.Commodity contracts 165,5,000 Bushels Each
Pacific Ethanol Slowed Down Production,So they Probably Didnt Produce 40,000,000 Gallons Of Ethanol this Quarter.So the Multiplier Is Less than 40 mln,but You Get the Idea
Yeast=$800,000.00
+
Corn Oil=$600,000.00 to $1,050,000
+
West Coast Ethanol=$6,520,000.00
+
Milo=$1,520,000
+
Corn Commodity Contracts= ?
-----------------------------------------------------
= ?
Plan for the Best/prepared for the worst
Double
Playing It Safe
I think there Will be a Spike On Earnings,an Educated Guess.
at That Time,I Will Play It Safe.
I Plan On Selling My Trading Shrs. (at Lets Say Close to a Double),a lil less.On the Chance that I May Reload Cheaper.
I Will Hold My Core Position,In Case Its the Real Deal.
Watch For Potential Acquisition By Archer Daniels (ADM)
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 10, 2012
Innovative Pacific Ethanol (PEIX) Corn Oil Technology Getting Attention_Watch For Potential Acquisition By Archer Daniels (ADM) Predicts Sierra World Equity Review
HEADLINE: Innovative Pacific Ethanol (PEIX) Corn Oil Technology Getting Attention_Watch For Potential Acquisition By Archer Daniels (ADM) Predicts
http://sierraworldequityreview.blogspot.com/2012/11/innovative-pacific-ethanol-peix-corn.html
Calculations
Here Is What I See
Yeast+Corn Oil Add .06c to .09c per Gal
Yeast Tech
production yield 2 cents per gallon of ethanol produced.
The agreement provides terms and pricing for any purchases of the Mascoma Grain Technology, or MGT™, yeast product for use at Pacific Ethanol Columbia, a facility with annual production capacity of 40 million gallons, and also provides for the extension of these terms and pricing to three additional plants operated by Pacific Ethanol. The four Pacific Ethanol plants have a combined annual production capacity of approximately 200 million gallons.
Mascoma and Lallemand Ethanol Technology Announce Commercial Agreement with Pacific Ethanol for Drop-In MGT™ Yeast Product and Commercial Roll-Out Progress | Business Wire
Yeast .02c x Q3 Production of 40,000,000 Gallons = $800,000
Corn Oil
depending on market prices for corn oil and production yield but can run from 4 to 7 cents per gallon of ethanol produced.
Stockton Ethanol plant to upgrade facility | Recordnet.com
Magic Valley capacity to produce 60 million gallons per year/15 million per Quarter
Yeast + Corn Oil .06c to .09c
West Coast Ethanol Pricing adds too .163c
West Coast Ethanol $2.545
Ethanol $2.381
Milo at 1/3 Mixture US. Price adds too
Valley Ethanol Plants Work To Wean Themselves From Midwest Corn | Sierra2theSea
Milo December 2012 $7.06,Argentina Price Wont be the Same
Corn December 2012 $7.59
Commodity contracts 165 @ 5,000 Bushels Each
pg. 12
EDGAR ONLINE - PACIFIC ETHANOL, INC. (PEIX) - 10-Q - 8/14/2012
$800,000 for Yeast
Either
15,000,000 x .04c = $600,000
or
15,000,000 x .07c = $1,050,000
for Magic Valley Corn Oil in Q3
West Coast Ethanol
.163c x 40,000,000 = $6,520,000
Milo ?
(I Feel Like I Can Safely Say Pacific Ethanol Beat Consences Estimate of -.11c)
Yeast+Corn Oil Add .06c to .09c per Gal
Yeast Tech
production yield 2 cents per gallon of ethanol produced.
The agreement provides terms and pricing for any purchases of the Mascoma Grain Technology, or MGT™, yeast product for use at Pacific Ethanol Columbia, a facility with annual production capacity of 40 million gallons, and also provides for the extension of these terms and pricing to three additional plants operated by Pacific Ethanol. The four Pacific Ethanol plants have a combined annual production capacity of approximately 200 million gallons.
Corn Oil
depending on market prices for corn oil and production yield but can run from 4 to 7 cents per gallon of ethanol produced.
Magic Valley capacity to produce 60 million gallons per year/15 million per Quarter
Yeast + Corn Oil .06c to .09c
West Coast Ethanol Pricing adds too .163c
West Coast Ethanol $2.545
Ethanol $2.381
Milo at 1/3 Mixture US. Price adds too
Milo December 2012 $7.06
Corn December 2012 $7.59
Q2 2012 Earnings Call Transcript On Carbon Credit Selling
(Here Is What Was Said at that Time)
Paul Resnik
Excellent. I was just wondering, interesting things always happen in California. What's the current state of the implementation of the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard?
Neil M. Koehler - Chief Executive Officer, President and Director
OPIS has recently started to post both a dollars per ton and a cents per carbon point. So we're seeing more price discovery, more activity around trading of credits. We expect that to ramp up as well in 2013.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/807401-pacific-ethanol-management-discusses-q2-2012-results-earnings-call-transcript?page=5&p=qanda&l=last
FYI - the Cap & Trade Auction Of Carbon Credits Is Tuesday right After the conference call
The November 2012 auction is scheduled to take place from 10:00 AM Pacific Time (PT) until 1:00 PM PT
Pacific Ethanol Inc (NASDAQ: PEIX) will be hosted by the management at 8:00 a.m. P T/ 11:00 a.m. E T on Tuesday, November 13, 2012
Pretty Sure It Will be Mentioned In the conference call,It Got Small Mention In Q2 Conf. Call
Pacific Ethanol Inc (NASDAQ: PEIX) updated that it will release its Q3 of 2012 financial results after the market closes on Monday, November 12, 2012. A conference call event will be hosted by the management at 8:00 a.m. P T/ 11:00 a.m. E T on Tuesday, November 13, 2012. Neil Koehler, CEO, and Bryon McGregor, CFO, will provide prepared remarks by webcast followed by a question and answer session.
EPA Waiver decision the week of Nov. 12
The Environmental Protection Agency is expected to make a decision the week of Nov. 12 on which states will receive waivers from complying with the renewable fuel standard for ethanol in gasoline owing to the drought that has affected corn crops in most of the Midwest.
Larry Elworth, chief agriculture counselor to EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson, has said five states have asked EPA for waivers for ethanol in gasoline and one state has sought a waiver for biodiesel. Details of the pending decision are covered in an Oct. 3 article.
(May be a Good Week,If OBAMA Takes the Waivers Off the Table)
Other CA. Ethanol Companies Inside Buying
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2012/10/24/insider-filings-one-way-to-track-tricky-micro-cap-biotechs/
AMRS has MASSIVE Insider Buying
Amryis
All Buy
7.88M
As % of Outstanding Shares 13.41%
CDXS Also has a MASSIVE Amount Of Insider Buying
Codexis
946K
Buy/Sell Ratio 9.5 Buys to Every 1 Sell
As % of Outstanding Shares
2.55%
InPlay: Codexis beats by $0.09, beats on revs
CDXS Codexis handily beats Street consensus in Q3 earnings /consensus of (0.18),Actual (0.06)
Codexis handily beats Street consensus in Q3 earnings
Jim Lane | November 9, 2012
In California, Codexis, reported revenues for the third quarter of 2012 of $26.3 million, a 21% decrease from $33.3 million in the third quarter of 2011. Product revenue in the third quarter of 2012 was $7.1 million, a 41% decrease from $12.2 million in the prior year quarter and a 5% sequential increase from $6.8 million in the second quarter of 2012. the third quarter ended September 30, 2012. Net loss was $2.3 million, or a loss of $0.06 per share, based on 37.1 million weighted average common shares outstanding in the third quarter of 2012. This compares to a net loss of $2.7 million, or a loss of $0.08 per share during the third quarter of 2011.
Raymond James energy analyst Pavel Molchanov wrote: ” The net loss of $(0.06) per share was much better than our estimate of $(0.19) and consensus of $(0.18). Following its (amicable) divorce from Shell, Codexis is in a transitional period as it aims to reposition itself in the fuels and chemicals arena, in addition to growing its base pharma business. Balancing Codexis’ opportunity to be an early mover in cellulosic biofuels with the decidedly hazy commercialization timeline, we maintain our Market Perform rating.
“The 1,500-liter demonstration facility in Italy with partner Chemtex is progressing on track for a mid-2013 startup,” Molchanov added. “Codexis continues to work on its strain, with a particular focus on boosting yield. {Meanwhile} activity is progressing slowly with Raizen, which has yet to give clear targets for Gen2 biofuel scale-up. As we’ve mentioned before, supermajors like Shell invariably move slowly on new technologies, and that is holding true with the Raizen JV.
“As promised, Codexis went about the hard, but crucial work this quarter of strategically realigning the company for its forward growth strategy following the loss of Shell funding,” said John Nicols, President and CEO of Codexis. “In parallel, we are encouraged by solid developments in our pharma business having recently finalized a new, more profitable business arrangement with our manufacturing partner, Arch Pharmalabs. We are also developing early prospects for commercialization partners for our CodeXyme™ cellulase enzymes, which produce cellulosic sugars,” Nicols added.
http://www.biofuelsdigest.com/bdigest/2012/11/09/codexis-handily-beats-street-consensus-in-q3-earnings/
Key Points to Bloomberg Article Are Favorable
“The big number that came out this week was the stocks report,” said Jeff DeReamer, an ethanol broker at ICAP Energy in Lexington, Kentucky. “That was a pretty significant drop. Simple math
says that use went up and they’re blending more.”
the Energy Department said stockpiles fell 5.6 percent to 18.1 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 2
Ethanol production in the U.S. may fall 5.5 percent this year to an average of 860,000 barrels a day, the Energy Department said Nov. 6 in its Short Term Energy Outlook.
Ethanol Discount to Gasoline
Gasoline $2.6073 per gallon
Ethanol $2.366 a gallon
West Coast Ethanol $2.52 a gallon
West Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol is at a current level of 2.488M, down from 2.645M last week -5.94% from last week
http://ycharts.com/indicators/west_coast_ending_stocks_of_fuel_ethanol
added Whats Up With the West Coast,but It Appears Refiners Are Blending at a Rappid Clip
California Energy Commission (CEC) Giving$$$ for Cellulosic
1.Edeniq received a $3.9 million grant from the California Energy Commission (CEC) as part of California’s Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Technology Program
2.Aemetis was also granted a $1.8 million grant from the CEC to test and commercialize cellulosic ethanol at the Keyes facility
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20121108005384/en/Biofuel-Producer-Aemetis-Partners-Edeniq-Implement-Advanced
Enhanced Share Holder Value is the Measure
Im Waiting for Earn. To make a Decision
GPRE Up Graded to Out Preform
FYI
Yesterday
HUGE Ethanol Company Beats So Far ADM GPRE AMRS
GPRE Beats
Green Plains Renewable Energy Beats on Both Top and Bottom Lines - DailyFinance
AMRS beats eps est by 200% and rev est by 95%
InPlay: Amyris beats by $0.41, beats on revsBriefing.com (Tue, Nov 6)
Archer Daniels' EPS Beats
Archer Daniels' EPS Beats - Zacks.com
AMRS CA. Ethanol Co. Up 23%
Earnings Better than Expected!
10 Reasons to Own Pacific Ethanol
1.Pacific Ethanol, Inc. Announces Repayment of $10.0 Million in Unsecured Notes
2.Recieved $10 mln Revolving Credit Line (Credit Worthy)
3.Giles Haycock Zacks Analyst Says Better 2nd Half
4.E15% Ethanol Aproved and Increasing Sales
5.Pacific Ethanol has Recieved Free Carbon Credits for Being Clean Energy for the Last Year
and Will Be Selling them Nov. 14th
6.Mascoma and Lallemand Ethanol Technology Announce Commercial Agreement with Pacific Ethanol for Drop-In MGT™ Yeast Product and Commercial Roll-Out Progress | Business Wire
7.Iroquois Capital reports 8.6% passive stake in Pacific Ethanol
8.Capital Ventures reports 9.1% passive stake in Pacific Ethanol
9.Corn Oil Stockton Plant
10.Corn Oil Majic Valley Plant
11.Milo & Bolt On Cellulosic
Resource:Sierra 2 the Sea Article
12.Corn Hedge 825,000 Bushels
Resource:Q2 Financials
13.Doubled Plant Ownership at the Begining Of Q3,to Double Positive Earnings
(Confidence ?,YES!!!)
OBAMA Tommorrow,Ethanol Waiver Off the Table
Mid Nov.
It Will Remove a Lot Of Un Certainty
OBAMA Will Pick Winners Ethanol & Corn Because Of OHIO
OBAMA Will Pick Losers,Companies that Opposed Him
Just a Calculated Guess
not a Fan of Either Candidate
PEIX Selling Carbon Credits @ CA. Cap & Trade Auction Nov.14
www.energy.ca.gov/business_meetings/2012_packets/2012-10-10/Item_05_Alt_Fuels_OIR/2012-02-22_Joint_Letter_to_Commissioner_Peterman.pdf
www.arb.ca.gov/cc/capandtrade/auction/november_2012/auction_bid_guarantee_notice.pdf
Top 10 Reasons With Links to Own PEIX
Milo & Cellulosic
Valley Ethanol Plants Work To Wean Themselves From Midwest Corn | Sierra2theSea
Corn Oil Stockton
Pacific Ethanol, Inc. to Implement Corn Oil Technology at Its Stockton Plant - Yahoo! Finance
Corn Oil Majic Valley
Pacific Ethanol to produce, sell corn oil - Sacramento Business Journal
Corn Hedge 825,000 Bushels
Pacific Ethanol, Inc. (PEIX): 165 Contracts@5,000 Bushels Each 825,000 Bushels
Yeast Technology
Mascoma and Lallemand Ethanol Technology Announce Commercial Agreement with Pacific Ethanol for Drop-In MGT™ Yeast Product and Commercial Roll-Out Progress | Business Wire
Institutional Investment Increase
Iroquois Capital reports 8.6% passive stake in Pacific Ethanol - Yahoo! Finance
Capital Ventures reports 9.1% passive stake in Pacific Ethanol - Yahoo! Finance
Paid Of Senior Note Credit
Pacific Ethanol, Inc. Announces Repayment of $10.0 Million in Unsecured Notes - Yahoo! Finance
Recieved $10 mln Revolving Credit Line (Credit Worthy)
Pacific Ethanol, Inc. Announces New $10.0 Million Revolving Credit Line - Yahoo! Finance
Giles Haycock Zacks Analyst Says Better 2nd Half
Pacific Ethanol looking for better second half - Yahoo! Finance
E15% Ethanol Aproved and Increasing Sales
EPA issues final approval for sale of E15 ethanol fuel
Pacific Ethanol has Recieved Free Carbon Credits for Being Clean Energy for the Last Year
and Will Be Selling them Nov. 14th
BERCshop: Ready, Set, Bid: Previewing California’s First Greenhouse Gas Auction | BERC
Milo/Sorghum Price Argentia Compared to US Milo
Milo/Sorghum Price Argentia Compared to US On October 06, 2012
Todays US Price from Bar Chart
Corn December 2012 $7.60 Old Crop
Milo December 2012 $7.07 Old Crop
1 Bushel Equals:
Corn, Sorghum & Rye = 56 lbs.
1 Tonne (metric ton) Equals:
39.3679 bushels of Corn, Sorghum
Hammersmith Marketing Ltd - Grain Trading
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT October 06, 2012
Sorghum, FOB Texas, low tannin, GMO free
USD $302/$318 Metric Ton
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port, high tannin, GMO free
USD asked $240/bid $225 Oct/Dec Metric Ton
http://hammersmithltd.blogspot.com/2012/10/weekly-report-oct-06-2012.html
Argentina Sorghum/Milo Price October 06, 2012
Sorghum, FOB Texas, low tannin, GMO free
USD 302/318
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port, high tannin, GMO free
USD asked 240/bid 225 Oct/Dec
Current Cost Advantage Of Argentina Milo
Source:
http://hammersmithltd.blogspot.com/2012/10/weekly-report-oct-06-2012.html
Cheap Milo FeedStocks in Q3,100s Train Cars
http://sierra2thesea.net/energy/valley-ethanol-plants-work-to-wean-themselves-from-midwest-corn
165 Contracts@5,000 Bushels Each 825,000 Bushels
Known Hedge pg.12
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=8774029-7852-61464&type=sect&dcn=0001019687-12-002814
Things We Can Depend On
Known Hedge
Commodity contracts 165
Each Contract Is 5,000 Bushels
165 Contracts
x 5,000 Bushels Corn
-----------------------------------
825,000 Bushels
pg. 12 Of Q2 Financial Statement Shows 165 Corn Contracts
A. New feedstock "milo" (grain sorghum)
B. Locally grown corn and milo, and perhaps imported corn and milo.
C. Corn Oil Separation and Extraction.
D. Cellunator technology / higher ethanol yield.
E. Cellulosic ethanol from Corn Fiber / higher ethanol yield.
F. New yeast and enzyme technology / higher ethanol yield.
G. 5 MGY cellulosic ethanol "Bolt-On" on 1 dry mill or more.
H.PEIX Selling Carbon Credits @ Nov.14 Auction
J. Madera Plant with corn oil extraction & Cellunator technology. There is a lot of money in Madera plant, when it is restarted retrofitted.
If Earnings Are Positive,Double them Because they Bought 34% More Of the Plant Assets in July
And so we Could get the last 33 percent of PE Holdco purchased,Or Madera Openening.
Resources:
pg:12 Q2 SEC Report & Sierra2theSea for Hedging,Bolt On,Milo
EDGAR ONLINE - PACIFIC ETHANOL, INC. (PEIX) - 10-Q - 8/14/2012
Valley Ethanol Plants Work To Wean Themselves From Midwest Corn | Sierra2theSea
Election Gambling With Superior Odds
Final national NBC/WSJ poll Obama 48 percent, Romney 47 percent
OBAMA Is Going to Save Over 500,000 Ethanol Related Jobs In Mid November When Ethanol Waiver Gets Denied by OBAMAS EPA
ethanol waiver decision not expected to be decided till after election in mid-November.
Seeking Alpha Article
Election Gambling With Superior Odds
October 7, 2012
Long Alternative Energy
The Environmental Protection Agency is part of the executive branch. Under Obama, its requirements
for bio-diesel are bullish for producers. Renewable Energy Group (REGI), Amyris (AMRS), Sino Clean Energy (SCEI), Syntroleum Corporation (SYNM), Gevo Inc (GEVO), Pacific Ethanol (PEIX) and Biofuel Energy Corp (BIOF) are buys
http://seekingalpha.com/article/909461-election-gambling-with-superior-odds
(Lets See If Seeking Alpha Is Right ?)
Higher ethanol blends could aid storm relief East Coast
Wondering If They Will Add Higher Ethanol % to the
24 Million Gallons Of Fuel Obama Is Sending ?
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20121102/BUSINESS/311020037/Higher-ethanol-blends-could-aid-storm-relief-East-Coast
Obama Sends 24 Million Gallons Gas To Sandy
At least 8 oil refineries are closed on the East Coast
http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-gas-fuel-crisis-sandy-2012-11
US West Coast gasoline production rise
US West Coast gasoline production gained for the fourth week in a row as low inventories helped spur record spot prices in early October, and have now leaped 6.5% over year-ago levels, according to government data Thursday.
US West Coast gasoline production rise above year-ago levels: EIA data - Oil | Platts News Article & Story
ethanol on the West Coast surged 10.5 cents, or 4.3 percent, to $2.565 a gallon
Business: Washington Post Business Page, Business News
Earnings 2-Nov-12
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ce?s=PEIX+Company+Events
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port
http://hammersmithltd.blogspot.com/2012/10/weekly-report-oct-06-2012.html
Grain Trading WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT
Hammersmith Marketing Ltd - Grain Trading
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT October 06, 2012
FOB port or location specified .. prices in US$ .. in metric tones:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
Sorghum, FOB Texas, low tannin, GMO free
USD 302/318
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port, high tannin, GMO free
USD asked 240/bid 225 Oct/Dec