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If they continue to work 40 hour weeks @ 95% capacity they'll have a tough time making even the 480,000 yards. That will yield only 55% of their allotted 540,000 or 3,825 ounces @.4 gr per yard. Expansion is critical to meeting their goals. The extra geotube permit shows they're aware of this and that it's in the works. They'll probably start overtime first while they expand. Volume is even more critcal than gr/yard. They can be profitable @ .35 to .4 gr/yard. The real issue is how much gravel can they get through the mill.
From the Aug 15th PR:
What's really funny is you sitting on the sidelines.
Well the Grinch has arrived early this year.
How about the skirt and the falsies? The skirt looks good with the stripes from sitting on the paint.
If the results are good we should see a hefty increase followed by a retracement. It all depends on retail interest. If it tanks Robo will be wearing a barrel having had to hock his cheerleader skirt and falsies.
The low volume, drifting share price and general lack of interest may be due to the fact that too many traders got burned on the last run up and subsequent 50 mil dump. Traders is the key word; there's lots of them out there looking to make a quick profit and leave. I'm sure that no one foresaw the last week's lack of action. None of the usual suspects have shown up and we've just drifted along. However, there are a lot of eyes on this board and if Tuesday's result are even close to expectations we'll probably see a feeding frenzy. The paint ain't dry yet.
The price action and relatively low volume was certainly unexpected. Guess we'll just have to wait until the 10Q comes out. In the meantime it's interesting to see all of the conspiracy theories develop. What's been really interesting is watching Robo whine. Maybe we could give him some cheese to go with it. We've done our dd so let's see if the company comes through on our expectations.
A lot of numbers flying around today. With gold @ $1,600.00 their break even point is .219 ounces per yard, @ .30 they recover 239 ounces with a net profit of $99,451, @ .35 they recover 269 ounces with a net profit of $161,026, @ .40 they recover 308 ounces with a net profit of $222,601. Those are monthly figures based on 95% of production capacity.
The Blacfire deal gave them an infusion of $382,500.00 to finance the startup, so there was no need for dilution or creative financing. The .2 grams floating around the last couple of days is from 2007 when they shut down and the mudflow they processed in July of this year. If the recovery rate was that low, they'd have closed up shop already. Anything above .3 grams per yard is profitable.
Fox show me your math on that one. At .4 grams per yard, I came up with $876.98 as a break even price.
I think you meant 2011. Fox's glass is always more full than mine. The 6,000 ounces is achievable if they recover @.4 grams per yard. See my post #72022 about the prospective recovery rates.
I'd say 1,250 to 1,300 ounces, but you're usually more optimistic than me. Let's see what the guidance has to say.
Happy Birthday.
If they process 480,000 yards that's below their alloted 540,000 yearly limit by 60,000 yards. The 6,000 to 12,000 ounces would be .389 and .778 grams per yard. They may have been a bit too optimistic last year with the 12,000 ounces unless there's something in the 43-101 we haven't heard about.
Good figures uwf they're in very close agreement with mine. Don't try to confuse Robo with a factual analysis. He's pretty confused right now and is afraid he'll end up like the rest of us if this tanks. He even changed his signature portrait. Looks like he sat in some wet paint.
November 10th is the Marine Corps birthday. You know what happens if you have a dyslexic, agnostic, insomniac? You have someone who stays uo all night wondering if there really is a dog.
November the 10th would be nice for an early PR; then we'd have to things to celebrate.
Good post Dee. If the news is good we'll see a pretty good jump and have to deal with the flippers for a week or so. but slow and steady is fine with me. How do you like M T's plaid jeans?
This is what happens when we're bored and nothing is going in. Is the paint dry yet?
Since the October production numbers are important for the forward guidance, they may be waiting for them to be completed before issuing a statement. If it's early, I'd vote for November 10th.
EDIT: It is like watching paint dry. I usually check it in the morning and afternoon to keep the adrenalin level down.
Anything over 400 is gravy. By the end of September they should be pretty close to their stated 95% of capacity rate. The real important number in the guidance will be the October production numbers. As you said there's an additional $382,500.00 from the Blackfire deal which will show up on the 10Q. That deal gave them enough operating capital to get the operation going. The 15% legal settlement sucked, but their backs were against the wall and they made the right decision. The way this stock trades sometiomes is a study in unpredictability.
Morning fox, nice job on the dd. If their guidance numbers were at all correct 300 to 400 ounces for the third quarter is quite reasonable.
And you certainly did. As a result the dd got stickied. You're not the only one who can be devious. Let's see if we can get through a day without getting deleted. End of thread. \V/_ :)
Maybe it's a bear raid before the good news.
Speaking of predictions, your post #71406:
Just when I think I've got how this stock trades, everything chages. I think everyone is a bit surprised with the low volume over the past week and today. No one predicted that. So, we'll have to wait for the PR to see which way it's going to go. If you don't have enough patience, just wait for it. The dd is solid and we'll have to be satisfied with that for now. What I am surprised by is that none of the lurkers have shown up. Don't bundy yourself. \V/_ :)
Obviously you can't make up what's left of your mind. Post # 71621:
Weren't you one of the major contributors to that confusion for much of the last year, i.e., failed dewatering system, untried technology, management can't play with the big boys, ad infinitum? (Ha!) You can't have it both ways. (Ha!) \V/_ ;)
Whatever happened with the FINRA inquiry? Did they drop a cone of silence over it?
Morning Robo, who do we get today, Jeykll or Hyde? How was the yachting excursion on the geotubes? What's your take on the relatively low volume? \V/_ ;)
Yep, you're right-grams not ounces. Thanks for the correction.
For all those nervous Nellies out there here's some numbers that may allow you to sleep a little better. If they are getting $1,600.00 per ounce with fixed operating costs of $270,00 per month the break even recovery rate based on a 21 workday month is 0.219 ounces per yard. For each .01 increase in the recovery rate above that threshold $12,315 will be added to the bottom line. At .3 grams/yard the bottom line would be $99,451, @ .35 it's $161,026 and @ .4 it's $222,601. So even if we're below the estimated .4 by a little we'll be making money. That's based on them running the mill @ 95% capacity.
Thanks lowjack, you headed me in the right direction. It looks like they recoverd about 130 ounces in 2006 and 187 ounces in 2007. That's using $660.00 per ounce. And, it looks like the recovery rate was around .2 grams per ounce. Those are just guesstimates and are adjustable contingent upon more information. Further it confirms that they were only recovering about 50 percent of the gold in the gravel. That makes a .4 gram/yard recovery rate with the geotubes more tenable.
Thanks Airdale. It gets a bit tiring with all the carping going on about the PR's. It reminds me of when I was the treasurer for a charitable orginisation and the loudest critics of any budget proposals made were from people who couldn't balance their checkbooks and had no business experience. Let's see how they do on the next one. Mitch pays attention to his shareholders and will in all likelihood address questions we've had in the interim as he has in the past.
Robo has turned out to be an asset which I find incredibly funny. Guess the end does justify the means. He cetainly got the posting numbers up and a lot of dd in response.
One of the reasons I did the research was to see if I could find out how much gold they actually recovered in 2006-2007. There's not enough info to to make a calculation. I'm curious if any of the real longs have any information on this.
Good job Fox! I was bored this morning and went through all of the company's PR's, so I have some idea of the Herculean task that you've accomplished. Just a side note on the history. It appears that they initially thought that Oregon Gold was going to be their first cash cow. They even mined some gold during that time, but couldn't do it profitably, so they concentrated on BRCM.
You might thank Robo for getting your dander up; he's such a sneaky little devil. Maybe we can buy him a real paddle for his yachting excursion in his inner tube floating around in the geotubes. He's currently using a couple of Viewmaster's mugs for locomotion, but he does look cute in his cheerleader skirt.
What's interesting when you read the PR's Is just how close to the brink they really were. Equally fascinating is the improvement in the quality of the PR's over time. A lot of posters bitch about the current PR's, but I've found them to be pretty informative and generally well written.
Sometimes you're so transparent. Still trying to get in on the cheap? What sympathy I might have had for you just evaporated. Just buy in and quit snivelling.
Fear is the mind killer. \V/_
Friday's trading was really odd; 1,845,327 shares traded @ an average cost of $0.0461 per share; that's $85,131.13 worth of stock. Of the day's 2,478,184 total shares traded that's 74.46%. For the more knowledgable, what's going on?
Well, looks like you got the results you wanted; the board should be updated this weekend if all goes well. What's incredible is that people take you seriously. I stopped doing that a long time ago. Have a good weekend, you slick devil you. (Ha) \V/_
You've done pretty well so far; hold on a little longer. This stock is amazing; just when I think I've figured out how it trades, every thing changes and I'm back to square one. The relative low volume this week was a surprise. Next week should be interesting. It would seem that there are a lot of fence sitters out there playing the mugwump role, i.e. their mug is on one side and their wump is on the other. :)