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Is Martin Schkreli the "hedge fund" version of Sheff ie., a complete pump/dump clown that for some reason has a following?
Why would any legit hedge fund manager be posting stuff like that via a Twitter account?
EXEL just started dumping on large volume.
Any idea why?
Update: apparently Martin Shkreli said something negative about them. Why does anyone give this guy any credence???
more $EXEL... from what i've seen the company has gone from 100 to 60 to 40mg due to tox. the therapeutic index is probably best at 0mg.
2 minutes ago
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Martin Shkreli
MartinShkreli Martin Shkreli
this is their only product and evidently the dose they planned is too toxic to give. ~$1bn market cap and their only product. ruh oh
15 minutes ago
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Martin Shkreli
MartinShkreli Martin Shkreli
EXEL drops dose in clinical trial - this is a disaster - stock should be down 20%
Thanks. I don't own the stock so I haven't paid much attention to the full details. Phase 2 looked pretty good though. It's one of the stocks I am looking to get involved with...
LOL, well, I guess if you want to rely on Gene Marcial, some beat writer for Forbes, to get information, so be it.
I will stick to clinicaltrials.gov, SEC filings, and corporate literature from ZIOP to see where the trials are.
Personally, I see the term "early stage" as something along the lines of a Phase 1 trial. AP26113---that's early stage.
FWIW, the PICASSO III trial is due to have their final data readout June 2012.
http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01168791?term=PICASSO+III&rank=1
I'm surprised GSCO hasn't picked up Ariad in terms of research rating. Oh wait. Berger probably told them they don't need any financing so GSCO has no reason to pick up coverage on ARIA.
Yeah. It really all depends on the doctors prescribing it. Other than the academics who were involved in the study, I haven't seen an overwhelming response to the drug from the sarcoma community.
Good thing Ariad has Ponatinib...
in early clinical trials for advanced sarcoma
I honestly believe Rida sales are going to be beyond minimal. I am not sure they will even come remotely close to what analysts have modeled.
Tomorrow's opening and closing prints.
Just because someone always has to make the assinine comment of "there must be news on the way. there was a huge buy on the opening (or close)!!!! News coming Monday morning!!" ....(even though, lol, that person always fails to realize there is another side to the trade but its ALWAYS a buy if the print is big)--------tomorrow is QUAD WITCHING and its very likely the majority of liquid stocks with ties to an ETF, Index, or options market are going to have large prints on the opening or close, and Ariad likely will as well.
I find it really embarrassing when I see those types of comments on message threads. Especially ones that are supposed to be more "sophisticated" than pumper boards like Yahoo.
It allowed for, what I hope to be, great trading opportunties.
OT: UBS 2 B loss, possible trade...
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/ubs-and-big-trade
LOL! We were just talking about that here.
You're only "rogue" until you lose an assload of money.
Surely, there is a Risk Manager on the desk who can monitor what is going on (unless this trade was an "error" and they went long/short overnight hopong to close it out in another session).
UBS probably (likely from reports) had a massive trade on the Swiss Franc and it went against them overnight when the Swiss pegged the currency.
I have stated numerous times that Merck is probably the weakest oncology pharmaceutical out there. Personally, I think they are a bunch of clowns, and yes, their stock price reflects that view.
I never said it wasn't possible, all I said was it makes it less likely IMO.
If Merck US was made partner on Pona, then I would say that substantially increases Merck's chances of owning Ariad, fully, at some point in the future. Personally, I don't think the relationship is all that great between Berger and Merck management, in my opinion.
I would be looking at the Portugal CML Conference next week for the bounce (with follow-up data to the Phase 1 '534 trial). Has a median duration been reached?
There is ZERO buying interest here. ZERO.
A sell of 2,000 knocks it down a nickel, a buy of 2,000 brings it up a nickel. No real players at all.
Disappointing to say the least. The lack of clarity on NCI trial is simply pathetic.
Sure is ugly. FCSC shareholders should be invested in REV with all the lipstick they're gonna need to primp up that pig again.
Lost in all of this is the fact Ariad hasn't (and didn't) do a financing, yet.
Berger seems to think (a) it's going higher (although, he has no control over macro events, and he may be regretting not financing at $12), or (b) he knows a deal is coming which will fund operations.
if he tries to go this alone and commercialize this drug or any others throughout the world on his own I think we are looking at some problems
OT: $2 billion loss UBS trader
According to Financial Times, who cyberstalked this trader's Facebook Page, the following is a quote from the trader on September 6:
"However, the final message left by the trader on his own Facebook page on September 6 simply read “need a miracle”."
I start getting vile as my size increases, lol.
I think that if they partner Ponatinib with some other company OTHER than Merck, it pretty much takes a buyout off the table IMO.
Any time you have a company with multiple partners, in multiple drugs, it just begins to really complicate matters in M&A.
Not to say it hasn't been done, it's just less likely.
Merck posted two new trials in ridaforolimus in September, 2011 (one in combo with DALO, the other single agent, both in solid tumors).
Did they give up on the endometrial indication? I haven't been able to gather ANY information on this indication whatsoever.
I don't blame them if they want to abandon the single-agent path, but, they sure are taking their turtle-time with it.
Knowing how greedy Berger is, I doubt they will partner in EU.
Merck USA, or Merck KGaA?
There is a difference.
how many times I'd heard the word "MACRO"
Just watch the EU/USD chart to see where this turdling is going. No conviction at all just drifting with the macro trade on.
OK, what would you like to talk about? How many times can we repeat the same stuff we already know about Ponatinib, Ridaforolimus, and the yet to be in clinical trial, AP26113? Until Ariad actually starts producing some news via medical conferences or partnerships or whatever, ARIA stock is a victim of the macro-global economics...which is relevant IMO to the way this pig is trading. (because regardless of what ARIA has in the pipe, if the macro-global markets go to hell and funds drop equities across the board, ARIA will not be spared in the slightest bit)
How do you avoid massive capital loss should YOU invest in[buy] those low-interest 10 year bonds AND interest rates then increase?
IOWs, who will buy those bonds?
If I were the Treasury Secretary, right now, I would be issuing as many long term bonds as possible. Hell, I'd issue a trillion dollars worth of them. It's FREAKIN' AMAZING to me when yields are at 3.50-3.80% on the long end, and they move up 20 basis points, the market panics. A few years back, people used to think 5% on the long end was wonderful. Now they cry if they move up a few basis points and we ARE AT THE LOWEST THIS COUNTRY HAS EVER SEEN.
Now that we have these uber low rates, issue as much debt as possible...
LOL, it is pretty trival...especially on an anonymous message board.
Personally, I think IF we get back to 13.50, the stock gets to around 13.30-13.60, and then pulls back a little, for a month or so, up until ASH where it will launch. Assuming the macro environment is friendly. If not, we don't get to 13.50 at all and continue floundering around here or lower.
Considering I sold my whole position in July, at, literally 5-10 cents away from the TOP, why is it not plausible that anyone on this board owned stock at 3.00-4.00, and then averaged down tremendously below 2.00, and bought even below 1.00, when it was trading there due to sheer panic in the markets ( like we have these days) when it was well known on the CML boards that 534 was working much better than Gleevec?
I suppose you think I lied when I stated, on the very day, that day, when, where and why I sold my entire position which I had, right? LOL at you.
I would rather buy it higher, knowing momentum is on my side, than continuing to "average down", which I hate doing.
I'm actually fine with what I have in ARIA right now. Yeah, it won't make me rich, but I picked up four new positions with the balance of cash from my sale back on July 25th (which, looking back at the chart - what a trade....what luck).
I'm not missing the boat at all.
I own ARIA in the low 8's, as I said a few weeks ago. I'm just not buying the entire position back.
Stock correlations 98%
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/stock-correlations-soar-972-heres-why
article from Zero Hedge quoting Reuters.
Tim Geithner, in his third third annual pilgrimage to Europe, the first two of which concluded with one after another more discredited stress tests (because in Mark-To-Unicorn America they worked sooooo well), has a slightly different message to the locals on how to run their failed monetary union. From Reuters: "Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is likely to urge euro zone finance ministers on Friday to speed up ratification of changes to their bailout fund and consider boosting its size, an EU source said on Tuesday. The official said Washington was worried that the euro zone was not acting fast enough to enhance the EFSF fund and that the stability of the global financial system was at stake. He is likely to tell the ministers that they should consider increasing the size of the EFSF to equip it better for the needs of potential bank recapitalization. "He will probably tell Germany to give up its resistance to an increase in the size of the EFSF," the source said. A well connected fund source told Reuters Geithner had been pushing for a solution for European banks along the lines of the TARP program in the United States, but had not made much headway." Translation: Germany has to immediately throw billions more of taxpayer money into the insolvent bank pit (just like America did), or else Tiny Tim will get angry. Well, if Germany's ruling class was against pledging over 100% of its GDP to bailout Greece and the other insolvents, it will surely be persuaded to commit political suicide after the last man standing from Obama's administration, who still inexplicably has not been fired for gross incompetence (and also prosecuted for tax evasion), has his say. And just as the short selling ban lasted all of one week before Europe's banks tumbled, even a favorable uptake of the idiot's proposals will at best lead to a 24 hour spike in prices followed by what will likely be the terminal tumble into the abyss of failed Keynesian-Bernankian experimentation.
The biggest problem is that the EU doesn't want to create a TARP-type of structure, which will devalue their currency because they will likely need to print money. They're really clueless when it comes to solving this problem...when all they really need to do is call Ben Bernanke and ask him for the blueprint on how to be saved from a massive depression like we almost had in 2008.
They're too worried about devaluing their currency than solving their problem which is in essence simply kicking the can down the road..waiting for something miraculous to happen.