I am updating my staus.
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CKGT - Well, they are not blow out amazing... which given the introduction of the new products might cause a BSPM moment. The aim of 35% growth into 2010 sounds good. Now sure what happens next, oh yes, the market will decide.
My spreadsheet revenue estimate for Q4 of 7.8M vs actual Q3 8.2M
Still cheap growing stock which hasn't quite hit Q4 "expectation" numbers.
Comments?
rich
CKGT - no comments
Well, they are not blow out amazing... which given the introduction of the new products might cause a BSPM moment. The aim of 35% growth into 2010 sounds good. Now sure what happens next, oh yes, the market will decide.
My spreadsheet revenue estimate for Q4 of 7.8M vs actual Q3 8.2M
Still cheap growing stock which hasn't quite hit Q4 "expectation" numbers.
Comments?
rich
TSTC/Street.com: Proven Small-Cap Winners: Under the Radar
They also call TSTC cheap! So there you go...
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10693263/1/proven-small-cap-winners-under-the-radar.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
rich
MR - Medical devices sector 25% growth Y/Y in China
See 2010 as being strong again- esp in China.
CC Transcript
http://seekingalpha.com/article/191582-mindray-medical-international-ltd-q4-2009-earnings-call-transcript?source=yahoo
Report
http://seekingalpha.com/article/191619-mindray-medical-reports-stellar-2009-on-strength-of-chinas-medical-device-market?source=trans_lb_articles
rich
CCGY, Trader - fair enough, no eom
rich
IBD: Coal Producers Lead Advance In Energy Sector
IBD giving mention to SCOK, LLEN and PUDA
http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article.aspx?id=522687
rich
Redman, that was a good read - interesting that they were picking out competition.
It's a head scratcher to know how you do poorly in a bubbling economy showing strong domestic consumption growth - surely advertising plays it's part?
thanks again...
rich
CCGY, Trader Hmm... you don't think that their might be some revenues for the new plant in Q4? It's a good point that they are Q1 estimates - people should be prepared to wait till Q1's results in June if margins & volumes haven't improved in Q4 vs Q3.
rich
I think people come to the board for ideas from some very knowledgeable posters and for new stock ideas. If we were to listen to the buying and selling advice of the board then you would need an infinite amount of money as it's all buys and no sells.
Advertising stocks on the board changes supply and demand to the demand side. If it wasn't worth doing then why do people advertise when they've bought a stock and keep re-advertising? Surely, one message is enough? By their nature you have to be advertising something that's cheap because you are buying with the hope that it will go higher - once it's nearer it's value what's the point in advertising it? If your a trader, what's the point in holding something that isn't going to go up? Especially, when you know another new stock is more likely to? So, it's time to churn the portfolio.
Personally, as long as everyone understands that buy messages can and do affect the PPS and that people should make their own valuation decisions - especially, it would seem, sells Then I'm sure, assuming China walks the walk, we'll all do just fine.
Once again, I feed on the ideas and the efforts of the traders I do completely acknowledge that.
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I looked at CCGY a couple of days ago and thought CCGY would really shoot if the margins improved but I didn't know what the criteria for that was. Worse case is it's worth 80 cents P/E 10 but if margins improve stand well back. Anyway, the point is it's another interesting advert coming into earnings season.
rich
CPQQ - no it won't be ready in Q4. I think it was late Q1 or in Q2 the new plant would be getting going - assuming no hangups. Expecting it to be ugly and I'm just going to grin and bear it... On yahoo they were saying it's going to do 11 cents... and I'm thinking;right, only if dilultion not shown in in Q4.
Probably need to do an estimate I'm happy with and keep some cash.
CPQQ is all about them getting the factory working on time - so keeping fingers crossed.
24 million does ring a bell... it's number I have in spreadsheet.
rich
CPQQ - any ideas on number of diluted shares?
I was thinking of phoning the company if no one had any idea?
rich
CAGC removed from geobargins as P/E 25
http://geoinvesting.com/
Now, if that can only be applied to all our stocks
rich
CCME - anyone who understands the company won't want to be out the stock when it's presented to institutional investors on Monday. Just in case it kicks off.
rich
SGZH also note the selling price per tonne went down in Q3.
Average Selling price - these are what I estimated.. I think they give them out in the 10-K
Q1 $56
Q2 $50
Q3 $44
Now, I don't know what the price per tonne of coal was in China but that's certainly a fall off. No idea how that compares to other companies but it feels low.
rich
IRP = Investor Relations Professsional
For those who have to google IRP, like me.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=13944
rich
SGZH - I believe that a power plant, who is one of their major customers stopped to be referbished for a month. The sales volumes in Q2 were 487K tonnes and the sales volumes in Q3 were 210K tonnes. So, the market, quite reasonably, doesn't fully buy into the 50% drop in volume story.
Perhaps there were other factors like overproduction / selling mixed in to Q2? SGZH claims to work closely with partners to work out what volumes they needed for next Q but perhaps it was short notice referb? Dunno... all guess work.
A good end of year report showing volumes bouncing back should do the trick. The only reasons for not maxing out coal sales during this Winter are logistical reasons.
rich
CCME approx $1 M sign on bonus + monthly payments.
Shenzhen is fourth largest in China and borders Hong Kong, i.e. a good growing area. $1M for signing up free for a few buses (7,400 * 124)... can't complain
rich
Yeah, I agree... I think they would like it to be the NAZ but like and actually happen are two different things. He commented that the NAZ has reduced it's requirements but I haven't seen a NAZ stock put on the exchange for less than $4.
I don't have much experience of IR but my guess is that they tell you what you want to hear
rich
Google Trends on China bubble
News items have shown some volume over the last year... but not much.
But the searching only increased in 2010.
http://www.google.com/trends?q=china+bubble
rich
CHGY news mean good for all coal stocks?
Sounds like it to me...
rich
Urban-rural income gap widest since opening-up
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2010-03/02/content_9524530.htm
I'm guessing more agricultural subsidies on the way....
rich
China – The Mother of All Black Swans
Not seen this posted... from mid Feb - you might be guessing from the title he's not, hmmm entirely, positive.
http://contrarianedge.com/2010/02/12/china-the-mother-of-all-black-swans/
rich
CNAM - isn't recycled steel cheaper than making steel?
rich
China reviewing how GDP calculated
Currently, you'll be aware that, local province leaders who are attached to their heads tend to inflate the GDP. China's thinking of ways to get around that... if they manage that is another matter.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-02/28/content_9514331.htm
rich
Hainan toxic cowpeas concern spreads
Chinese continue their policy of trying to poision some part of the population at anyone time. I would be sooooo organic if I lived there.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-02/27/content_9514301.htm
rich
CNAM - yeah, I can understand that. Until the earnings nail down the price the stock will be volitile - I'm thinking of how volitle PUDA traded - when finally everything was known then it's been trading fine.
With CNAM we at least have an idea of volume but not margin and I suspect it will be volitile until that is out there.
Still, I'm going to be optomistic and hope there will be a run in the Chinese stocks coming into the earnings release. Though, it may be short lived if people continue to question the long term viability of Chinese economy. Personally, I think the worries are overdone, as I believe they will overcome the short / mid term problems, but I think I'm in the minority.
rich
Yeah, difficult to say ... you apply and then you keep your fingers crossed... these things can be quick or slow.. ask LLEN that took months.
rich
CNAM - your probably more interested in TA thoughts?
My fundamental thoughts are the basic company at P/E 10 is worth $5 above that is when you start paying for the expansion. Markets, and particulary now, are a pessamistic bunch - so I would make a conservative valuation and 1/5 capacity at 6% margins or something and work that out as a target.
If the margins were good you have to wonder why they haven't tried to indicate it to the market? Anyway, not sure if Q4 will have any significant recycle numbers in it? But they could give an indication to how it's going... and that will give the market the idea. Q1 will give at least a ballpark idea of margins - so you'd expect a run into those results.
Regardless of how the market wants to value it clearly the upside is signficant by the end of the year 1/3 usage with any half decent margin can only benefit the patient investor.
Dunno, if that's anything useful or just me wittering? It's the first Weeeee I've had this year to my memory... Everyone needs a good weeeee now and again.
rich
Chinese Banks loading up capital ratio
A number of Chinese banks have raising money .....
http://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15580568
rich
LPIH released results on Feb 16th which if you believe GAAP numbers was 15 cents loss. [1]
It opened at 2.29 and closed at 2.53... in the preceeding days it's back to 2.34 [2]. I suspect market is waiting for the future earnings. I don't think describing it as "hammered" sums up the situation properly.
If people believe it made a loss surely the pps should be plummeting? But of course it didn't, since it's an imaginary loss.
Acountancy creates a framework which is meant to explain how the company is doing. Warrant charges would seem to fail to tell the story.
I have no idea how the market will take a warrant loss on the day it announces it's earnings but I'm pretty sure in the long run it going to totally discount them.
[1] http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Longwei-Petroleum-Announces-prnews-1549007467.html?x=0&.v=2
[2] http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=LPIH.OB
rich
How do you make that call? Is it that you see fewer sell block on L2? Or is it more sophisticated than that?
rich
Solar: I must admit I looked at some solar companies and thought... who the fudge has the best technology? I realised I hadn't a clue.
rich
Alt Energy vs Pharma
Western people are suspicious about Eastern medicine (probably right to be somewhat suspicious! It reminds me of a joke... Question: what do you call an alternative therapy that works? Answer: Medicine) and suspect that's why it gets a lot of flack.. CSKI, AOB, CBPO have all taken it in turns to get a kicking.
Yes, I wasn't having a go at alt energy... just pointing out why it's not faddish. Alt energy has been beaten down and investors are not starrey eyed... so probably a good time to get involved.
What's your favourite Solar play then?
rich
CNAM Playing with numbers...
By end of year... 1/3 utilisation is, say, 300,000 tonnes.... $400 per tonne.
Revenue $133,200,000
Take net margin of 5% 6,000,000 net... ( I have no idea what the margins are but they are small in their other scrap metal business)
O/S 10,097,449
So were talking 0.60 extra.
Estiamte they doing $0.50 ish for 2009.
So.. quite possible that a $5 stock could do $1 business. With the potential of growth going forward.
Now, the first few quarters of year might see low utilistion and you might have to suck that up and say "I only see this investment as a long term hold". The margin may be up or down from 5%. No idea...
Anyway... $5 is what the basic business is worth... at P/E 10 so... there's good potential for upside.
rich
Health (BSPM) vs Alternative energy
Well, I never invested in alternative energy, simply, because it was subsidised and therefore at the whim of government mandate - I don't see how I can allow for that. Government
If an alternate energy is profitable without subsidy then I would be very interested. That said if the multiples have come back down I would be very interested in alternative energy since I see less and less options going forward - energy suppliers are going to have to adapt..
ANYWAY, Health sector in China has had severe under investment - so much so that the peasants in rural areas were, in effect, without protection. This was causing a) savings to increase so a family could deal with ill relative b) severe discontent.
a) China really needs everyone spending money! (not just people in gyms)
b) China really hates discontent - they will go out their way to encourage social harmony. The rural investment in health is something like 50% increase for next 3 - 5 years (can't remember how long but they are really big on 5 year plans ) - think it began a year ago. Further they are boosting money to farmers to give them more disposible income.
I just don't see how Chinese Gov can back down on health spending. Recent reports all put health spending as vital cog.
So, I think BSPM is in the right spot - rural healthcare esp. should be good for the next few years.
Now, for BSPM.. assuming that nothing competes heavily with the Hep A drug they will do just fine in that space - but that is the risk of owning the company.
rich
Ah, the weather... was thinking about asking about that Doh!
rich
BSPM Chatted to IR...
A few interesting things he thought...
1) Gross Margins would be affected by increased geographical areas - so as the company sells further from province the gross margin comes down.
Also talked about pricing pressures in China... I guess we get some colour nearer time.
2) Hepatitis is spread by poor hygine so... more sales in rural areas.
3) The 135 day limit or whatever... isn't hard and fast.. really the investors want to see some progress towards uplisting rather than putting gun to head. I said well you've missed NAZ and he said that NAZ might be more flexible about PPS than they have in the past.
Personally, I think NAZ is long shot... but perhaps possible... and perhaps the 135 day limit isn't vital.
rich
Chatted to IR...
A few interesting things he thought...
1) Gross Margins would be affected by increased geographical areas - so as the company sells further from province the gross margin comes down.
Also talked about pricing pressures in China... I guess we get some colour nearer time.
2) Hepatitis is spread by poor hygine so... more sales in rural areas.
3) The 135 day limit or whatever... isn't hard and fast.. really the investors want to see some progress towards uplisting rather than putting gun to head. I said well you've missed NAZ and he said that NAZ might be more flexible about PPS than they have in the past.
Personally, I think NAZ is long shot... but perhaps possible... and perhaps the 135 day limit isn't vital.
rich
Yeah, I think people are selling to reposition themselves for coming results. They know the upside on BSPM is limited so they want another roll of the dice.
rich