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With all the distractions... we can not lose sight that its possible... people in the trial (ph IIb NSCLC) are still living. I hope that sounds better : )
Is the comedian the ones on the side of the fence with Patrick Crutcher or on the other side? I will stay on the opposite side for the long term. You do realise your quote is from PC and you are showing your true stripes.
There was the short term long money movement up.... short term short movement down....and then there is the truth in the middle where Bavi lies....and dormant still....rearing and ready ....patiently waiting for some news from Tustin
It is a shame if this was true that during those dark days when 200 million shares were flip flopped and we have no idea how many were truly simply washed a couple times that week..... or the many more that are sitting in an account ready to be sold off to keep the price down.... or for leverage the many more that holding for the ride back up.
All we do know is people are living longer on Bavi no matter how they arrange the cards....and we sit here as all players are doing just that....arranging the deck of cards.
There are many ways to arrange this deck .....censors (wild cards) may play into the final hand but all I know is they can say what they want.... because I believe we are holding all the Aces!
Aces=MOS=eventually rise in pps=ultimately a buyout ...just how soon or long?
Depends on how many decks are involved....and how many players are involved....and how much time and patience the weakest link has and I hope the weakest link is not Peregrine!
This is prett vague....but they did come out and say the discrepancy was with the treatment arm coding.....which many longs here whom have been following this stock for many moons..... know quite well that it means the bavi arms. I did not think the company had a chance in hell to get any more cheap options until you see how this is all playing out. Additionally... those 150 million dollars worth of shares are key now the following month after the additional 8 million shares are approved for possible employee stock options because whomever the BP may be to partner would want some assurance that they are given some key cheap shares as well....whether or not it was planned is of no matter because I see this playing out exactly where the low price is ultimately going to benefit all parties. Ironically .....I find myself in the position of buying more and holding longterm again.
I wish I sold at $5 and buying back now.....maybe next time :)
I agree.... time to buy.....still waiting for some funds to be deposited into my account and hope it doesnt show up too late
ever since we dropped below a $1 ... I figured we'd be back above that key level by now and I am hoping for some news over the next few weeks to get us back above water
The news that would do it now... would be some type of merger
Investigations bring some interesting facts... : )
Sooner or later Bavi will be brought to market.....because the patients living longer will speak louder than any group trying to hold Bavi back to ...
I see said the blind man...
The good doctor clearly believes that Bavi must have some type of negative side affects?
Well.... this is simply why Bavi garners the much warranted attention: Because side affects are negligible!
Then the good Dr. assumes its Peregrines fault about bad data he says?? The lawsuit is against the 3rd party! For discrepancies in the coding.... which may or may not alter the data! ...and could alter it positively!.... Where the @#$ does this Dr practice??
Obvious ....agenda driven because any Dr who hears this Bavi story will simply hope for a better fight for solid tumor cancers.....and its time to investigate the good Dr. To see where and what topics his published journals/writings are directed towards?
WAIT......dont tell me this is just a blog doctor! Reminds me of a Dr. ..that is paid to go on TV in the wee hours of the night to associate himself with the latest and greatest wonder diet pill that works wonders! LoL
OH yes.... lets approve every diet pill known to mankind but when it comes to doubling the life of someone with NSCLC .... we have to walk the politically correct tightrope that is being held by major BP's on either end and they don't like too many people joining their party : )
Ok... time to cool down and everyone enjoy the weekend : ) and smile out there..... Bavi will be proven!
lions .. tigers ..and bears! partnerships.. buyouts... and ... and just give us some news Peregrine! : )
- Trial and Error of Botched Calls -
Team Peregrine started this season 5-0 as they climbed to $5 pps... week 6 they were blown out 52-0 by Team CSM but word has it the replacement refs really blew many calls in this game and the FDA just got rid of all the replacement refs and all is back to normal. Normally the the FDA doesn't reverse the calls made on the playing field... and the longer this stays under review we just may see a 1st FDA interference and reversal of all calls.
Sports analysts are speculating that .... even with the botched calls and minor set back.... the overall record 5-0 going forward will be plenty to get them into the next phase (III) and looking forward.... Team Peregrine may be the first team to lose this big... but at the same time no other team wants them out on the field at the same time!
Vegas has had the odds against Team Peregrine go from 250-1 at the start of this season.... all the way down to 2-1 as they started the season 5-0. After the replacement ref's botched game 6.... Vegas dropped them from 2-1 all the way back to 50-1.
Amateur Analyst Sierra has claimed that this is purely insane that they were listed as a damaged goods team... back to 50-1... and this is one bet to hop on as one "trial and error of botched calls" game is not going to ultimately stop Team Peregrine from making it to the finals!
Amateur Analyst Sierra reminds everyone that Team Avastin made it to the final a few years back after going 10-6 and Team Peregrine should go 13-3 once these botched calls are cleared up.
Only thing I can think of....is there some restriction to trading or agreement under confidentiality rules? Probably not..... but the partner possibly could have been waiting for a final deal once FDA gave the green light....and they still may be giving some BP 1st preference when this investigation is over and we can move forward
I would think a few BPs would be buying up Peregrine just on pure speculation that if they are not the ones to partner or buyout the company.... they are still in the game
Very funny.... : ) but you never know who is lurking around Peregrine headquarters these days!
Maybe the state of California is involved in a deal and they think Peregrine can help pay off its massive state debt! ...lol
I am flirting with buying more PPHM and further reduce my average....will I regret this in 1 year.... I hope not!
I dont think we can conclude its pos/neg/or neutral. Some funds buy/sell at convenient times simply to make a play on their yearly return percentages. Overall the market is up big time this year and you can never rule out some of the many reasons they would sell and buy back in again once the coding issues are finalized. I know one thing...if there is a big turn around .....many more traders and funds became well aware of Peregrine and all will be watching closely for any upward movement to get in .....again.....on a pure momentum play.
I hope all have a great weekend! Lets hope fors some IST trial data news tomow!
Must read...good post . Eom
Because its time to go long....for $22! : )
And to answer you.... its hanging in there because everyone is just waiting for the investigation by ?? ...to give some clarification and will be a wild swing back up if the MOS is atleast 3-4 months better than Avastin. If the doubling of MOS holds up as reported previously...and continues to work with other solid tumors.....then I may be able to retire!
I agree.... I am all in and not flinching.....and will continue to buy and paying to see the last card
We'll be back to $5 and then all the glass half empty folks will move on to bigger and better things and boards they can raise hell in.....and I will be regretting I didnt roll the dice and sell everything and buy option calls ....which I may have been able to triple my shares
I just want them to get a PR out with some explanation....but legal will be crafting another PR for them because of all the sharks in the water.
just a possibility....
when they started learning the "events scheduled" section from their website as we were watching .... its also a possibility that they were in the middle of studying/analyzing the coding errors ( possibly buried deep within the un-blinding of trial data? ) and once they started to see the extent of discrepancies ( but before they came to a final conclusion ) then they decided to clear the table and refocus their attention to the trial to make sure all was ok.
Then between that time they "started" to see discrepancies.... and Friday after market/ Saturday/Sunday....they now begin to "finalize" their discrepancy discovery and ultimately made the call to PR it Monday morning.
Alternatively.... during the middle of this entire fiasco.... they really could have cancelled all scheduled events because they were in talks with BP's while they were discovering this discrepancy and it was a mixed bag reasoning for cancelling the scheduled events.
Bottom line.... its going to be very..."very" difficult to find the company or BOD more than 50% at fault for not disclosing "material events" before that Monday morning. Lawyers can argue one way but the bottom line is you don't come out and claim a discrepancy on the 1st look over .... as it would need double checking by the appropriate personnel.
My conclusion: Lawsuits are dismissed.... and coding errors resolved to the satisfaction of all parties ( except the lawyers filing suit! ) and we can all go back to looking a bright future for Bavi and Peregrine. This time... we hold back on the celebrations until FDA approvals
I know... so please sell and buy back at that time. : )
I will gladly take them now and keep a long long hold on them for you.
I remember those days when I was weak and would sell on fear...The only fear one needs to have here is how many shares will you need to sell to pay the tax man.
I am not soo sure about it being classified as bad "data". They specifically said discrepancies in the "coding" which may or may not affect the outcome.
This is critical here.... because this is where the head-fake comes in.... and we could be right back at $5 as someone else bought in?
My point is who are the ones that bought in between 1.20 -1.50 ? shares were being sucked up big...big.. big time that day of reckoning and we would be sitting at .20 cents if they were not buying in that range of 1.20 - 1.50
Hopefully we soon find out
Cramer never talked about Peregrine ...it was "if"
In my opinion... I think "legal" advised the company ...after finding the errors ( and seeing how the stock price was moving up ) that it was critical they filed a lawsuit against 3rd party.
I didn't say to paint them in a the worst possible light....
but I believe they had no choice according to legal (especially with the stock price increasing ) Maybe they could have just called up the 3rd party to try and work it out but now the 3rd party is going to take Peregrine serious and help resolve the issue.
No one likes to file a lawsuit but in many cases if you don't... matters do not get taken care of in a proper manner. I do believe that its in everyones interest ( Peregrine, 3rd Party, FDA? ) to resolve this asap and move on.
Time to get back to work now.... and back to waiting for some news here
A twist is coming... but which twist is going to be handed to us?
now here is a new twist ( not that we need another ) ... Cramer all of a sudden starts to talk highly of Peregrine and makes this a classic example of a "panic press release" ...? Then we would know his buddies are locked up and loaded for the ride back up
I hope 1.50 first... but I am readying myself for additional funds if it takes a drop to .50
Ironically.... if this company just moved up slow and steady.... I would have much... much... much less shares and so when all is said and done, many of us will benefit.
The ones who truly benefit though... are those that own millions of shares between 1.20 - 1.50 recently... we may never know whom they are if multiple groups all bought under the 5% mark but I am hoping at least one has bought more and finally ready to reveal themselves.
Then this board will continue with more speculation
I can see your point... but the cost of any cancer drug ( if it beats standard of care ) will always be priced at a premium over whats existing at that time. It is another issue but all I know is if I am being treated for any medical problem.... its not my preference to want the most expensive solution but would rather want the safest and most effective.
Back to Bavituximab.... the only ones that are not hoping that Bavi is the most effective and safest are the competing BP's and they have the money to lobby the FDA and others but how effective can that be? I am not sure at this point.... but will say that Bavi has a proven track record all the way up to phase IIb.
I think we are all just waiting for some news from Peregrine... 3rd party... FDA... or anyone that may be involved.
One question to ponder: IF the 3rd party was not at fault... I would have expected them to fire back immediately with a press release and I know you can use the same excuse as Peregrine ( quiet time due to investigation ) .... but someone has to talk at some point.
open heart surgery used to be thought as a bad idea as well... till people realized the technology is here and ready. Cotara fixes the problem without the need for side affects going thru the entire body
Your learning curve will improve... maybe even by the year 2020
not to worry : )
I agree! I do believe we will all be saying why the wording of "major discrepancy"...
most likely scenario it was legal that advised that just to be sure... let me try and make an analogy.
Ford invents a new electric car and ships it out to a 3rd party for a review. Car is tested and a report comes back saying it beats all cars on the market in every standard.. safety and ride..etc. One problem... the car that was shipped back is about to be brought into to the review board for final inspection and Ford realizes that car does not start. It has worked perfectly thru the entire protocol design up till the 3rd party got their hands on it and this new car is worth billions. They file suit immediately but their legal team advises to make an announcement for "worst" case scenario.... shareholders follow with class action lawsuits.... and 2 months later 3rd party reversed some labeling on the battery connections and all is repaired and now ready for the final review.
Bavi has always been tested and proven thru every phase and step of the way up until "coding" errors of some patients control arm....due to 3rd party actions. Bavi will be back on the road in no time and will be safer than all oncology drugs that exist.
Bavi is the vehicle that is going to take down that path to fight cancer... and the entire BP field are taking notice and probably going to lobby the FDA to have Bavi be approved as an additive to all current drugs on the market. I hope Bavi can take it home all by themselves... but the BP's must be lobbying for some type of risk mitigation on their behalf.
Lets hope for some news today!
Wrong answer.... 1 OR 10 lawsuits does not matter. Once the first lawsuit is dismissed then the court has spoken. I am not saying its right ethically....because the class action suits will not be dismissed on ethics and will be based on the laws for how/when/what is disclosed to the public by biotechs from what they are officially given from 3rdthe party CRO's. Unfortunately... there is no timeline for disagreeing or how long it takes to review the 3rd parties results. Further...Peregrine stated they discovered the errors made by the 3rd party for their "end of ph IIb meeting with the FDA".... and even further.... this may be one of the largest misfortunate head-fakes that drives us right back to $5!
Simple PR tomorrow of 13D or updated trial data or another surprise from Tustin could be hours away and let the reversal begin. GLTA!
Maybe.... just maybe we are not giving the Peregrine management team and lawyer(s) the credit they may deserve. I have gone from multiple scenarios of what could have happened (even tampering) with the trial coding data.... that I am hopeful that the FDA is rather impressed and genuinely praises Peregrine for finding the discrepancy. I sincerely doubt that Peregrine purposely did this till their additional stock options were passed and voted on at the ASM. I just hope they come out with conviction ...when the quiet period is over.... to explain this unfortunate fiasco where many sold out on.....and many more are expanding their positions.
This stock has a reputation to turn quick and bite you in the A$$...for shorts and lately the longs.
My daily reminder is they wouldn't have initiated these many IST's with Bavi if they were not confident in the end game! ... MOS doubling on a placebo is false....but doubling of MOS with Bavi is our ticket to a phase III trial.
I hope we hear some info soon... anything/something out of management... was thinking about that "weeks vs months" statement.... and whats just under 2 months? 7 weeks....
I hope its not 7 weeks...
even if the mix up was "only" with the 1mg / 3 mg arms... just give us that info because then the "MOS" doubling still stands and we are moving onto Phase III
IF Peregrine will be granted those additional stock options if they get the votes at the ASM.... I suspect we just may be hearing the updated news after the ASM. September/October 2012... will be a couple months that will be retold by many of us when all is said and done!
I disagree... Peregrine was in a double blind study so they had no access to the data but they were given the results from the double blind study which were great = doubling of MOS.
SEC rules now required them to make that announcement without sitting on the great trial data of the "doubling of MOS" ... because its more likely that insider trading would be risked if they didn't announce it... and its less likely that the double blinded study wouldn't not be "completely accurate"...
this is where the problem lies... the less likely scenario happened and Peregrine discovered the errors of the 3rd party and were required to report them and needless to say = file a lawsuit just as was the likely outcome of lawsuits placed against Peregrine.
When the investigation is finished... I doubt the doubling of "MOS" can be faked or made up which is why the errors were directed towards the "coding" and once the final assessments are in... we could very likely just have an unlikely case of 3rd party error.
Could have Peregrine worded that monday morning PR differently? I hope thats answered as well.... most likely it was the politically correct "legal" wording since outside agencies were involved ... FDA?
thanks... I may just may have to settle for letting the option calls ride instead of buying more shares and hope Peregrine is allowed to speak sometime soon to give some clarification. The only answer thing that helps us now is getting some news on the other trials... or hearing the "MOS" was valid and doubled.
If you purchase "call" options for April 2013 at $5 and the company is bought out before April... what happens to those purchased options?
The road to success for Peregrine is looking like the road less traveled by many small biotechs that make it on their own or gobbled up by any number of large BP's. This road to success ... will be marked by many questions and even less answers as it seems someone is making the leap to Phase III more difficult than initially thought for Peregrine.
Why would they initiate soo many IST's and go all out ... if ... they didn't believe their lead drug candidae Bavituximab was not part of the future in fighting the many cancers with high unmet needs.
First.. "Was there a requriement to release interim results when unblinding to prevent insider trading?"
I believe they had to release the results of the unblinded study to avoid any chance of insider trading... this was a big argument against unblinding a study and the days of bio techs trading on that news before it was released are over. Ironically... we have the flip side scenario here as the trial was unblinded and the company is releasing the news the following day "as told... as written.... as the final judgement of the 3rd party"
Second....and most important to our scenario:
1) Did 3rd party hand over all paperwork regarding this trial?
2) Did 3rd party properly evaluate the entire trial?
3) Did 3rd party follow protocol ... is it possible they did not (in certain paper trails) have the right person handling the paperwork from start to finish
The FDA will basically agree completely with Peregrine that they had to make that announcement on Sept 7 after receiving the unblinded delivery from the 3rd party.
The FDA ...along with others... will now be asking how long it takes to discover the errors that were found and if those errors would have only been found with ( while ) preparing for end of ph II meeting with the FDA... IS THERE A TIME REQUIREMENT FROM PH. IIb UNBLINDED STUDY DELIVERY TILL WHEN YOU HAVE TO SCHEDULE THE MEETING WITH THE END OF PH. II MEETING?
I am not even going to speculate about what the "coding" mixup was and if it will change the fact that "real" people are living longer and no scientist or FDA official will tend to believe they are living longer on a placebo! Now what are they living longer from? Lets just say the stock would have ended up in the 10 - 50 cent range.. but surely under a dollar that Monday of hell and someone big.... bigger than big.... with deep pockets was buying.
This road to success for Peregrine is looking like not one traveled by many small biotechs that make it on their own or gobbled up by any number of large BP's.
Remember... Bavi is a game change and a pure fighter to the many cancers and some will not stop at anything to hinder that paradigm shift. I just hope Peregrine has enough fight in them and the right connections to push back.
I agree someone was buying big... but I just hope this isn't bigger than Peregrine is up to task or can handle.
Isn't it odd how the recent announcement for a join venture of 10 large BP's and they are all going to be investing money as a group to speed up advancements within the oncology field.
How interesting would it be if many smaller <5% owners popped up (oh wait... we wouldn't officially know because we're only informed with anyone owning over 5% ) .... and down the road when a buyout is worked out... a BP was actually paying back the smaller BP's that needed to invest in the joint venture and now all funds are directed towards the "honey pot" of the 10 BP joint venture where they could own Bavi under their belt and add Bavi to their oncology patent cliff drug busters and see how good it improves their current patented drug and reapply for new patents with the additive of Bavituximab and extend the patent cliff out for another 20 years.
Lots of big assumptions made here... but this is why BP's have people are on the payroll to think outside the box and I certainly hope Peregrine can find one of those thinkers for them at this moment. All I know is its highly likely that someone in the know or directed agendas could have a large position in the company or many smaller positions that we may not find out about without some DD.
I look forward to some additional statements about this law suit... along with with SEC filings shortly.
exactly what I mentioned before.... if a major BP(s) purchsed 20-40% of the company.
80 Million shares... ( 20 % purchase ) .. * 15 = 1.2 Billion
60 Million shares....( 40 % purchase ) .. * 15 = 900,000
A BP getting this company at $15 pps would certainly appease the majority and they are getting the years of work .. Imaging, Cotara, Bavi.. .and AVID! for close to a Billion.
I still am skeptical on this entire thing... and pretty odd at this point that we'd be willing to take $15 during these times? ... because I am still a firm believer that Bavi is a break-thru and could make and be worth much more.
Either way... at this point they will probably do whats best for their shareholders and I think a buyout will happen *unless* they have solid evidence of tampering going on and they work with 3rd party and FDA to pass Bavi along to Phase III with no delay
I did not want to say this .... but after looking at the big picture....imo....I believe its possible someone with deep pockets is hindering Bavis place in helping fight cancer....call it what you may but some coincidences just dont happen to the largest cancer play in the last decade
These actions by Peregrine speak volumes on how close they were ...and still are!.....and lets hope Deep pockets are on our side as well....Mr. Dart
Just when I was going to try and get away from reading the board and spend time with the kids.... I get drawn back in for Part II! I like the fact they filed immediately and brings leverage back to Peregrine to show that they know Bavi works!
FDA has them on their approval list... Im sure the FDA doesnt want the bad press and publicity over this but its coming now. Lots of deep pockets never wanted to see Bavi reach ph.III and this gets that much more interesting from here on out.
I am right beside you...I am not selling out.
The longer this takes to wrap up and give us an answer... the shorts will keep trying to force their hand. Think about it....how are people are living longer?.... Bavi
Time will tell.....