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I don't mind the minimum ATM selling.... I mean lets just say 130M shares OS.
If we are going to be the Microsoft of biotech Arena in the future.... 100M or 130M or 150M or 250M shares don't mean much at all once all the splits come down the pipeline.
Lets look at Microsoft now... with a market cap of 240B and OS of 8.4B and current share price of about $30.
At 240B market cap (partnered and longterm 7+ years out)... we would settle in around $1,800 pps
Lets just assume 100B for middle term (partnered and 5-7 years out)... 100B shares / $130M gives us a pps of $ 769
Lets just assume 50B for short term (partnered and 3-5)... 50B shares / $130M gives us a pps of $ 384
Lets just assume 25B for shorter term ( on the initial assumption of multiple approvals / "Breakthru" approval and partnership(s) ) 25B market cap / $130M gives us a pps of $ 192
Lets just assume 12.5B for shorter term ( multiple FDA approvals and partnership(s) ) and market cap of $ 12.5B / $130M gives us a pps of $96
Lets just assume 1-10B for the shortest of terms...getting 1st Bavi phase III approval and no partner initially ---would give market cap of approximately 1B -- 1B / $130M would give us a pps of atleast $7.69
All in my opinion... and if we are heading into the Microsoft of the biotech Arena... this is the direction we will end up so I agree with the assumption that anything from $50-100 is a sell out and I'll sell what I need to sell ... many will sell according to age and mortgages... etc...etc... and if you are able to hold longterm.... you just may walk away or leave your kids/family enough so they don't have to worry about their blood pressure as they watch bio tech stocks fluctuate with the wind.
Enough of my opinions....I think its time for a week or so break of the board... will be back once we have a "new" analyst initiate a buy rating.
See you all then... glta!
One theory for the record....
Is there a possibility that Peregrine would find it beneficial to wait and gather as much full data trial details ( mainly and specifially MOS details !! ) as it would be beneficial in this manner:
I am not going into what happened or who was at blame/partial blame for initial "major discrepancies" which we today learned as "discrepancies" (For the record again... what happens to the stock price 9/24 if the wording "major" was left out ... hmmm )
So here goes... first read this:
http://www.bioportfolio.com/news/article/1229151/Fda-Accepting-breakthrough-Applications.html
FDA as of Nov 8, 2012 starts a new program... accepts applications where if you have a "breakthru" drug .... then we have like a monopoly game "pass immediately by your next set of trials and stop into the FDA office and collect your FDA approval!"
Now lets take a step back... you telling me that Garnick with his connections at the FDA over the many years didn't sense this was coming down the pipeline back near that dreaded day of 9/24 ? I am not saying that the company was lying about not having major discrepancies.... is it possible many drug companies get the overall stats and #'s of trials and release them before doing their final wrap up for the FDA end of phase II / beginning of phase III session with the FDA? maybe its possible that in the bio tech circle... the quicker you get into the FDA .. and out of the FDA office... and onto trials ... you can start making money.. right?
Well here we are at this period of time... 9/24 ... Is it to the benefit of Peregrine to quickly escalate into a Phase III trial design and then sit around haggling with the Partner(s) about who was going to get the best deal in up front money/back end money... regional partnerships... etc..etc..?
Is it possible that if Garnick knew about the "breakthru" application process in the works... as smart as a man Peregrine has hired.... they came to the conclusion that maybe they should "make sure" (all discrepancies) are taken care of with all of the data and maybe they should just double check the paper trail/patient trail/all vials of blood/medication or to whatever extend they are going thru to have the best damn final report available for the FDA.
Oh... and by the way... by the time this is completed they just may have hundreds of more files ready of Bavi trial data and just so happens that with all this data it just may be enough to file for that early "breakthru" designation with the FDA.
Oh... and by the way.... by the time this is completed, they now have "MUCH" more leverage in upfront money... sideways moneys... and backend money... and money wherever you look!
Oh... and by the way.... by this time, IF a partner is in the "know" it gives them a heads up to get primed and ready.
Oh... and by the way.... by this time.. it gives Peregrine management some extra time to hire some Sr. Medical Writer for FDA mamby pamby paperwork that needs to be filed and referred to the SEC.
Oh... and by the way ... does this give Peregrine just a little more time to lock in more low priced options ( not that it was planned ... but it could just work out that way )
Oh... and by the way.... if you still have a negative outlook on Peregrine Pharmaceuticals... please read all the material that all the much more knowledgable fellas have in many other posts in this thread because this is just my opinion.. my theory... and I'm sticking with it till we hit $117.
GLTA!
You are correct... with the positive trend that the 1st line Bavi lung trial is heading and gets FDA approval .... the 2nd line wouldn't matter to finish the data to get to the FDA since we'd already have locked in the 1st line with Bavi : )
MOS still increasing across the board....thats all I need to know!
we'll see $117 before we see $1.17
I agree.... and it seems as if they wanted to hold the 30M in cash on hand lately and if they sold just enough to maintain that 30M and still give a positive outlook for MOS and advancing partnering talks I am totally find with that.
I know the pessimists or anyone invested in the last 10 years have been listening to "partnering talks".... but the last 1-2 years are different where there is no way the company rolls the dice on initiating multiple trials with Bavi before the 1st one can set up the remaining trials "IF" they were not completely confident that the early signals led them to take this route. Each time they say partnering talks..... its obvious in my opinion that they could have made a deal many months ago on the BP terms but they are deciding to hold out to make the deal on Peregrine's terms which I agree and think they should! One of the BP's that would be more than happy to have Bavi as part of its pipeline will break free and make that investment into the future how cancer treatment is researched, developed, modified and finally treated. To many a surprise..... it may just roll back around to allowing our immune system perform the job it was always meant to do!
Bavituximab is the future.... and many more whom were skeptical will be reminded of this in about 2 hours.
Good luck to everyone!
Thanks for the reply... and that gives a much better understanding of global drug markets!... and I do have complete faith in how Peregrine will further construct partnership deals because the pipeline will truly be the largest of its kind within .... or I should say... surrounding the entire...largest unmet medical fields of oncology.
GLTA!
AF must be preparing two articles for Peregrine.... IMHO he will have to post how he can't believe the positive results that Peregrine has released and he will not change his mind until a BP agrees to a partnership and puts up the money. 1 out of 5 drugs make it to FDA approval and now with Cotara heading into phase III and Bavi results around the corner and heading to hopeful quick phase III or early approval it puts Peregrine on the very very short list to go from small bio tech to major BP
This makes our partner/buyout potential partners go from not only the biggest 20 or so BP's... but stretches this into the biggest 50 BP's and very possibly a multiple BP partner/buyout where one large BP is mainly focused in US and the other BP is mainly focused outside the US
All in my opinion.... because gaining hold of the entire pipeline is a rather large set of trials to be put in motion and the quicker the trials are placed into motion... the quicker the return for all parties and cancer patients!
More leverage for Peregrine Pharmaceuticals...
Besides the hopeful outlook for doubling of "MOS" of multiple cancer trials currently.... the successful partnership and/or buyout will still hinge on Peregrine finding and agreeing to a lucrative deal with a BP that doesn't have hidden agendas and of course to have politics on their side and its trending that way as well as many BP's are being watched by the FTC on some of the secret deals they make to keep competitors drugs at bay for a little longer
http://ycharts.com/analysis/story/big_pharma_gains_another_foe_on_paytodelay_deals_31_state_ags_file_supreme_court_brief
"Yet another group is speaking out against so-called pay-to-delay deals between brand-name and generic drugmakers. A group of 31 state attorneys general has filed a friend-of-the-court brief supporting a recent request by the US Federal Trade Commission to have the US Supreme Court review these controversial agreements."
I believe politically there is soo much attention on the health care budget and big pharma that its going to be very difficult for a BP that has a drug on the market to stop the entrance of competing drugs. This snow ball effect will surely help Peregrine because we are not talking about just cancer drugs... this effects any drug which eventually decreases a BP's profits all around and they need to find new ways to boost revenues and I see this as a big boost for Peregrine because one of the many BP's will want to jump on the Bavi pipeline before its too late and IMHO we will have a partner/buyout sooner than later.
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Goldmine find CJ! No wonder why AF follows this board ....so he can learn the facts and then twist the story for their agenda. I am looking forward to Monday
CP...I dont think you are being greedy because if we the shareholders dont receive a proper return on investment then the BP thats involved in talks is receiving a much higher return on investment before the deal is even signed.
IMHO....I think it all comes down to how long we hold out for a buyer and the longer we hold out the buyout price becomes more than most could have imagined and having 1000 shares will be seen as a large amount. Problem #1 is will the regional partnerships as foreseen already by King be accepted globally? Or will some be too greedy to accept this plan as it may need to be played with different laws....and agencies that are not equal worldwide.
Let the games begin....again.....
I agree and I can't see how anyone could disagree. There is simply not any other drug out there such as Bavi that is trending towards "MOS" figures that can even compare and then you add on top of that minimal/no side effects and its a clear path breakthru for cancer patients.
IMO .... we are trending towards a major after hours rise Monday and spike up Tuesday morning. Then we're back to debating on how high we could go. I only want to hear a Steve King speaking in confidence and laying out a plan that we can achieve and we just may be talking about regional partnerships all over again.
GLTA Monday! : )
Good post and its a must read.... as said Peregrine just may be the right bio tech with the right pipeline at the right time for multiple FDA approvals.
The latest job opening for Sr. Medical Writer specifically states:
"Your expertise is essential for building clinical reports, investigator brochures, summary of safety and efficacy documents, and other documents that may be submitted to the Food and Drug Administration or other organizations for publication and/or presentation as we prepare to revolutionize patient therapies for brain, lung and pancreatic cancer. We would look to your experience for the production of high-quality clinical documents to help our rapid approval process with the FDA."
http://www.peregrineinc.com/about-us/careers.html?task=view&id=57
Its shocking to me that the stock price is this low for soo long.... its not going to be a shock to me once we quickly rise back to $5 and much higher grounds!
I didn't want to be the one who started the price expectations again... but here we are and I will say that I do agree with you and those who don't just have to remind themselves the depth of a pipeline that is being established with Bavi. This is not even mentioning Cotara .. imaging... and Avid.
By the time all is said and done... Avid could very well be a profitable stand along company.
Its the ideal package buyout if I ever seen one with your own in house manufacturing capabilities and imaging that could very well be the key to early detection and early detection is half the battle for any cancer!
Cotara... well thats an added bonus and just remember the days when open heart surgery used to be thought of as impossible or something you wouldn't want to even attempt but now you get on average 10 years life extension for the 1st bypass... another 10 years for the 2nd bypass and Cotara will be the key for a much longer life ahead for any GBM cancer patient.
I still wonder way back for those Department of Defense contracts we were involved in and much of the filings were sealed lock and key so we don't know much about some of the filings and the more that comes out of these Bavi trials.... if they would somehow play another important part of future renewed contracts or even investments into the company.
The future is bright for Peregrine and 2013 will be known for many cancer research breakthru's.
8K - Dec 6th - re: compensation arrangements...
possibly caused by the company and Mr. Gorgas were unable to come to an agreement for pay once leaving the company ...though an added lump sum payment for healthcare (including dependants) for a nine-month period
(a) a lump sum payment in an amount equal to six or nine months (the "Benefit Period") of the participant’s annual base salary in effect at the time of the eligible termination, with the number of months applicable to each participant determined by the Committee in the case of "officers" of the Company (as defined in Rule 16a-1(f) of the Exchange Act) and by the Company’s Chief Executive Officer or the Company’s President in the case of all other employees; and (b) a lump sum payment in an amount equal to the estimated cost of continuing the participant’s health care coverage and the coverage of the participant’s dependents who are covered at the time of the eligible termination under the Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1985, as amended, for the Benefit Period. The Compensation Committee assigned a nine-month Benefit Period to Mr. Gorgas.
Thats when the upgrades start to roll in....
Cramer in the video mentions a few times that RIMM was getting too high and needed to be brought down .......this only reminds me of AF as PPHM was making its big move and he wrote negative after negative article as I can likewise hear him say that PPHM is too high. All have a good weekend!
exactly my thoughts.... and we just have to realize that just about every biotech has their hiccups and I'd rather get a pullback like this from $5.50 to $1 instead of getting a pullback for some type of error later on from $50 to $5.
Let me put it like this.....many investors have put Peregrine management through a fine microscope from every aspect of the company and as ironic as it may sound.... it might just have been the best thing that could have happened to allow Peregrine to come out of this stronger in the long term.
Sometimes when there is no pressure on at all and you make it big you simply don't know how to handle some key situations. One improvement that is noticeable is the public speaking of Steven King from just a few years ago till this past summer. Overall... they are heading in the right direction and they are heads and shoulders above any other small biotech out there for their market cap at this point.
They are not just pushing a drug (Bavi) through trials for help in placing a bandaid up aginst one particular cancer as other companies try to do(for that is all they can do)..... they are pushing Bavi through trials to absolutely transform and rewrite how to fight all cancers!
GLTA! .... what the heck happened to my 1.60 peak and 1.45 close : ) Good things come to those who wait.
I can hear the frustration now from the AF friends that dialed up his cell phone before he dived into another article regarding little old Peregrine. Now... the tables are about to be turned for good.
We will all feel much better by days end.... as the swing up looks like it is about to start : )
good to show that every once in a while just for a reminder to everyone how the game is played....
now for the close for the day.... I say we will hit 1.60 and settle back to 1.45 for the close
Good analysis and I will favor your outlook of:
"Now assume for a moment you are at the table as a BP, would you like that good news would bring other, already excluded, BPs back to the table with tempting offers that could force you to re-evaluate yours! You would make it clear to Peregrine that you do not want that, possibly even putting something against it that Peregrine likes/wants."
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Peregrine IMO most likely has that partner that suits each company best and sticking with them thru this.... as for the partner: They just want to make sure that the data continued to trend their way and the way it all turned out: 1) BP partner got a few extra months of insurance and 2) they also got Cotara phase III ready agreement from FDA and 3) Peregrine has to keep everyone at bay and calm on all fronts until the genie is let out of the bottle.
Monday just may be the beginning of connecting more dots that is plainly right in front of our eyes as AF and friends try to distract as much as they can to use the liquidity in this stock to make a few more bucks before we move upward and onward towards a Bavi pipeline that just may yet prove to be worth the wait!
Good points regarding the "MOS" of the IST trials and I would suspect that reaching "MOS" is a material event and it would have had to been PR'd if it was reached by this point ( especially with the "coding errors" and risk of lawyers looking for any type of negligence in when and what was reported )
Bottom line they would no way hold back an "MOS" of any other trials since they already stated that the discrepancies didn't effect any of their other trials so I believe we are at the point where all the positive trends are going to be reported on any other trial which would indicate the same positive trends for the 2nd line NSCLC in case they are unable to untwist whatever discrepancies they found.
What do we have left ? We end up with a Bavi pipeline that has been delayed x months... a stock price that was deflated and torn down only to start the uptrend again ... and it does happen to many Bio tech stocks as we are all aware. I like to take the optimistic approach and as I said before... I'd rather have a hiccup this early in the rapid growth of Peregrine instead of a hiccup such as DNDN made and lost most of their steam for months
Lawmakers May Relax FDA Drug Conflict Rules
http://www.pharmacistelink.com/index.php/medicaremedicaid-and-healthcare-legislation/83-lawmakers-may-relax-fda-drug-conflict-rules
FDA under pressure.. Peregrine could have the right cancer pipeline at the right time.....
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=fda-under-pressure-to-relax-drug-rules
"FDA advisers at last week’s meeting did recommend approval of telavancin (Vibativ) — a derivative of vancomycin — for the treatment of hospital-acquired pneumonia when alternative drugs are not suitable. But that vote came nearly two years after the FDA had rejected the drug for a second time because clinical data did not measure up to the agency’s guidelines.
“The agency has painted itself into a statistical corner,” says Scott Hopkins, chief medical officer of Rib-X, a drug company in New Haven, Connecticut
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The most probably cause to approve Bavi's pipeline... Median Overall Survival and Less/No Side effects from standard of care
This is the argument that Peregrine needs to sell to the FDA and we just may be the right drug company.... with the right drug pipeline.... at the right time.... and you think BP's foresee this possibility? I hope so
Back to Basics... lastly....
its all about money.. for the traders.. investors... except for the patients whom are going to be the real winners as their lives depend on these trials.
and for Peregrine to move forward and reach their goals.... a partnership must be excecuted and fast. IF they have truly been in talks ... now they gain some additional leverage with Cotara and can use that at the bargaining table to atleast get some upfront money while Bavi trials progress or an alternative option is re-do a bank loan using Cotara
Either way.... Peregrine best show up on the conference call and sound like they did at the end of summer conference call where you could "hear" the confidence in their voice and lets move forward
As for tomorrow... hopefully we get some surprise news ... my bet will be on a bank loan or private loan to squash any use of the ATM
GLTA!
Back to Basics... 2nd ...
Now this opens the door on other fronts as seen in the recent job openings that appeared out of Peregrines site: Exec Assistant and Sr. Medical Writer
"Your expertise is essential for building clinical reports, investigator brochures, summary of safety and efficacy documents, and other documents that may be submitted to the Food and Drug Administration or other organizations for publication and/or presentation as we prepare to revolutionize patient therapies for brain, lung and pancreatic cancer."
..... Now we have Cotara phase III... some job openings with the mentioning of brain, lung and pancreatic cancer within the job descriptions.
This is of significance because IMHO its giving well deserved credit into the Cotara program... and Bavi pipeline of trials such as for Lung and Pancreatic cancers.
I see the dots.... and IMO... these job descriptions are simply adding more dots to the overall puzzle and I know its easy to make excuses as AF does to simply call it a "hoax", but he is doing what he does best....stir the pot for the sole purpose of attracting more visitors to his articles he posts.
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Now for what its all about and comes down to... partnership....
Back to Basics... 1st ...
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/peregrine-fda-agree-on-brain-cancer-drug-study-2012-12-05?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts
Peregrine has come to an agreement with the FDA on a Cotara Phase III trial with as many as 300 patients and more importantly... with the recent relaxed FDA rules.... if all is trending positive early in the Phase III the approval can be handed much earlier than expected.
"Cotara has been granted orphan drug status and Fast Track designation by the FDA and orphan drug designation by European regulators. Cotara is a targeted therapy that delivers a high dose of radiation directly into the brain tumor while sparing radiation exposure to healthy brain tissue."
"we are now beginning to plan for this global registration study while continuing partnering discussions."
The Phase III trial is expected to compare two dose levels of Cotara in as many as to 300 patients."
Hopefully this will make the run starting with some good results Monday
I didn't think there were that many on the east coast... south of Maine... 1.5 hours away in Mass
Good post....all I know is once the genie is out of bottle all hell will break loose within the BP's that were about to make a deal and lost out in the bidding war. We will be partnered and there just yet may be that buyout in some form or the other.
I totally agree the flexible design that Cotara is approved on with the FDA is the selling point to an upcoming partner .... the FDA has just recently over the last couple months are relaxing the rules on going the distance with ph I / II / III and with the unmet need that comes with Bavi and its safety profile its another pipeline that can be approved for all solid tumors
The dots are being connected.... and IMHO its the fear that is coming out of the pessimists with their own agenda that should be hint #1 that good things are around the corner that they will continue to drive the stock down when possible till the fat lady sings!
Isn't it odd that its taking such a large amount of shares to drive this stock down? If you didn't sell after 9/24 you are not selling now..... in my opinion.
The more you see negative articles.... the more pissed off some people are that this stock is not diving down further, which is why AF needs to drop to his knees to call PPHM a "hoax".
When you can actually see the "fear" in their writings.... they are only fearful they are not able to maximize profits as they thought they could.
Smile out there... because the road to riches doesn't exist without any bumps.
Hope to see you all at the other end with more shares than we had when we started.
Cotara - brain surgery much more advanced over past 5 years
.."Furthermore, dual modality imaging contrast was developed by conjugating 800CW-PGN635 to magnetic iron oxide nanoparticles"
Here an article about Peregrines Imaging program... notice the acknowledgement on the bottom: "Acknowledgments: We thank Peregrine Pharmaceuticals Inc., Tustin, CA, for the provision of PGN635 antibody. This work was supported in part by NCI 1R21 CA141348-01A1 and NIH CTSA Grant UL1 RR024982 and by the Meredith D. Chesler Foundation, Dallas, TX. Imaging was conducted by the Southwestern Small Animal Imaging Research Program (U24 CA126608), DOE grant #DE-FG02-05CH11280, and NIH BTRP # P41-RR02584."
http://www.wmicmeeting.org/2011/2011abstracts/data/papers/P663.html
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Similar approach... using "nanoparticles"...
.."About 14,000 people are diagnosed annually with brain cancer in the United States. Of those cases, about 3,000 are glioblastomas, the most aggressive form of brain tumor. The prognosis for glioblastoma is bleak: the median survival time without treatment is three months."
http://med.stanford.edu/ism/2012/april/nanoparticle.html
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All and all... Peregrine is much further along at this point... now FDA approving their phase III and I consider this much more important since its just an added bonus to go along with the Bavi platform for our future partner
IMHO... I expect the pps to continue to trend up... after the games being played play themselves out of their short positions and reload on the long side
I agree... its a positive step for Peregrine! I would like to know how many meetings that they had with the FDA over the past 6 months on Cotara and how many with the FDA on Bavi trials and how many FDA meetings on Bavi 2nd line NSCLC discrepancies.
Bottom line.... we know Peregrine were in talks for partnerships and my guess is Cotara was part of the talks. Since Cotara is now slated for a phase III that is acceptable ( say we show positive results on the first 30-50 patients the FDA can then have the option to give us an FDA approval much earlier than the 300 patient trial design )
What may happen next is those in the game for Bavi.... will be settling up quick since Cotara is Phase III ready and makes money available to keep the ATM at bay OR does King surprise us with another positive bank loan using the Cotara program as collateral???? that is a very likely scenario since it would show that they are confident! confident! and more confident! in Bavi to lay down the rights to Cotara as collateral.
Lets go Peregrine... they better sound "confident" as they did end of summer CC and lay out a solid plan to give the analysts enough momentum as well to start laying out some higher pps targets.
DD.. you never read the full article? : )
It clearly states in the last paragraph ( as Bavi is not being shelved! )
"Cotara and our lead oncology therapeutic candidate, bavituximab both represent significant opportunities. With key data from Phase II bavituximab clinical trials in several oncology indications set to read out in the coming months and the opportunity to advance Cotara into a pivotal trial, we have number of potentially significant value drivers on the horizon. We look forward to updating you further as we continue to make progress in our late stage clinical programs."
I like the sounds of that ! " Agreement Allows for Phase III Trial Planning While Advancing Partnering Discussions"...
question is the partnering discussions they are talking about were just for the Cotara program? I tend not to think so....
I would say the partnering discussions was for everything on the plate that Peregrine has to offer and Cotara is just one more incentive for our future partner. This surely moves talks along in the right direction.
CC monday... I hope King gives us some nice surprises during the call
Save those emails golfho for the final day when Bavi gets its 1st FDA approval
Great post.... and this is just another connecting of the numerous dots that Peregrine has crafted and I want to say the future of Peregrine will be astonishing! .... then on the other hand I just get the feeling that the more dots that are connected that the leverage on a buyout swings Peregrines way along with a price tag they are unable to refuse.
Thanks! Well now I wonder if they felt options representing 2M shares was a good deal .... they probably have added more to that # by now.
I still want the Inst. ownership to approach the 30-40% mark and hopefully soon to stabilize ... each leg up we move I am hoping the stock stabilizes a little bit each move up
GLTA and looking forward to a PR in the a.m. to start connecting more of these dots!
Is it verified/confirmed that Ayer Capital does actually hold 20,000 call options ? I just looked and there were a lot of calls purchased today.... the most I could find in total seemed to be in april 2.50's over 20,000 calls... and 5's over 20,000 calls...
Was there any Ayer Capital links that directly shows them owning the call options?
If they continue to buy more... as long as its under 10% of shares outstanding....do they have to file each time? I was thinking no until they reach the 10% or 15% point....?