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wbmw: thanks for the PM. (I cannot respond via PM because that feature is available only to paid subs.)
Surprised that no one else commented on my post about AMD’s “allowance” against deferred tax assets. Although the allowance is a non-cash accounting action, it is effectively an announcement that AMD does not expect to be profitable in the foreseeable future. That would seem to be something worthy of comment by followers of INTC. Dew
>> and the second piece covered the establishment of an [AMD] allowance against deferred tax assets of $263 million. <<
I’m going out on a limb because, until we see AMD’s detailed financial statements, we won’t know for sure. But taking an “allowance against deferred tax assets” essentially means that the assets in question are being wiped off the balance sheet. Such an action is usually an ominous signal.
Here’s why: “deferred tax assets” arise from tax loss carryforwards, i.e. past operating losses which can be used to offset income taxes on future profits. However, a company must actually generate future profits in order for such tax loss carryforwards to be worth anything. Hence, a decision by a company to write down such deferred tax assets is in essence a statement that profits in the foreseeable future are unlikely to be large enough to fully utilize the tax loss carryforwards.
So you can see why this is indeed an ominous sign for AMD. FWIW. Dew
Great business model if they can pull it off. Much cheaper to sell old stuff than design and build brand new products.
Perhaps TMTA will re-christen these ol’ TM5600’s with a spiffy new tag like “TM5600E” (for “embedded”). Dew
I had assumed that the TM5600 was defunct. It hasn’t been mentioned at all in the last several conference CC’s. Anyone have a read on this?
>> NEC using the 1GHz TM5800 is great evidence that TMTA can produce the fast chip in quantity, and for OEMs other than HPQ. <<
It will be reassuring to see these NEC 1GHz-machines actually on the shelves. Huge relief that there is evidently no supply problem (?any longer).
It’s odd that the article gives a price for the NEC “eco” in the Japanese market but not for North America. The older model using a 900Hz Crusoe is widely believed to be overpriced. Dew
No idea. Why is Krispy Kreme under drugs?
Excellent analysis, wbmw. The only thing I would add is that what Hector says in an interview with the press might be somewhat different from he says (or thinks) in private. FWIW. Dew
I would be willing to wager that the mistake was on the part of the journalist – not Hector. It may sound hard to believe, but I’ve seen other reporters confuse these companies. After all, they’re both Taiwanese. (LOL)
How can I generate more interest for the Corning (GLW) MB? Greg, from the INTC MB, suggested I ask here.
Done. Thanks for suggestion.
I made one more stab on the GLW MB. Let’s see if anything comes of it. With the smattering of people here who are interested in a high-tech company like GLW, you would think there would be a critical mass within the iHUB community to keep a GLW MB going.
GLW is a lot like INTC in many ways: both companies do their critical manufacturing in-house and both aim to be the technological leader in every business they enter. GLW just happens to have been ambushed by one of the greatest crashes in the history of technology/telecom. But they are on their way back. FWIW. Dew
My comment on this week’s price action:
http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7080383&tid=glw&sid=7080383&...
It would be great to have a GLW MB on iHUB with the quality of the INTC or TMTA boards. Anyone think that’s possible?
OT Corning
I apologize for the OT posts, but wbmw and possibly a few others seem to have some interest in Corning (GLW). Moreover, the GLW MB on iHUB is devoid of activity, so posting over there is like a tree falling in the forest…
GLW is up 60% in two days and 3X (!) from its October low. If anyone is interested in more info, please let me know. (If anyone posts on the GLW MB, I will respond over there.) FWIW. Dew
wbmw: IBIS hasn’t named the recipient of their latest implanter, but the informed speculation is that it was IBM. FWIW.
Thanks, WSH. That’s consistent with what I’ve been able to determine. Regarding Franklin Covey (which was the subject of some discussion on the Yahoo MB): it’s more of a specialty store for business supplies than a computer retailer.
There was a post on Yahoo this morning which said the TC1000 will be arriving at retail outlets in the next 10 days. (I’ll believe it when I see it.)
I hope Carly et al know what they are doing. Sure looks like a missed opportunity…
>> I hope you're not counting on that for your retirement...<<
EP: as I said, IBIS is a small position.
I do not fully understand your reply. Are you saying that the 200->300mm transition won’t happen for quite a while, or are you saying that SOI isn’t the answer? T.i.a. Dew
I want to understand as much as I can about the 200->300mm migration. I have a small holding in IBIS, which stands to benefit from the transition by selling implanters for 300mm SOI production.
Thanks. I learn something every day. But I don’t understand the rationale for 90nm on 200mm. Is it just to defer cap ex for move to 300mm?
>> I believe that at 90nm, Intel is going to be 100% on 300mm wafers. <<
I had assumed that was a given for the entire industry. Would anyone do 90nm on 200mm?
OT Corning:
>> looks like [Corning] gained 20% on the news. <<
wbmw: the bigger factor today was Corning’s announcement that they sold their projection-lens operation for $850M in cash to 3M. This is probably far more than most investors thought this relatively minor part of Corning’s business was worth.
>> How much higher do you see them reaching, and do you have any analysis to back it up? <<
For some time, the price of Corning (GLW) has been driven by liquidity concerns. Today’s $850M sale helps to alleviate those concerns.
It’s hard to do any bona fide price modeling because GLW probably has more surprises coming. (For example, I expect some kind of scaling back in photonics.) Moreover, a lot depends on the prices that bond investors are willing to accept for GLW’s debt securities, which GLW has been aggressively buying back in the open market at 60 cents or less on the dollar!!
If telecom spending returns to merely its pre-bubble 1996-98 level, GLW should trade in double digits, i.e. a 4-5X return from current prices. JMHO. Dew
Corning CFO says semiconductor bottom has been reached:
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/021112/tech_corning_outlook_1.html
>>
Although the telecom market remains soft, Corning expects the fourth quarter to show robust demand for liquid crystal displays (LCD) and a rebound in demand for semiconductor products. "We believe we're at the bottom of the semiconductor cycle now," [CFO] Flaws said. The market will see "the beginning of the long-awaited recover in semis."
<<
FWIW. Dew
>> assuming ASP for the crusoe is $100 X 100,000= $US10 mil. ( revenue contributed to the total forcast revenue for Transmeta) <<
But TMTA’s ASP was only $64 during 3Q02, according to the Q&A session at the quarterly CC.
Since the Crusoes used in the FIC Tablets run at 800-933MHz, I doubt they will garner an ASP of $100. Regards, Dew
Tablet talk on the INTC MB:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=579150
wbmw: as I said in my previous post, there have a great many reviews of the HP Tablet – most of them favorable. I do not care to repeat over here what has been rather extensively debated over on Yahoo. If you like, I can point you to some of the most relevant posts and links.
The TM5800 seems to be holding its own against the competition when measured by a composite of pertinent metrics: price, application performance, form factor, power consumption, and heat. Note that I list heat separately from power consumption; although these are related in the underlying physics, they are two distinct issues in the minds of consumers. (Excessive heat has been mentioned prominently in reviews of some of the Intel-based Tablet PC’s.)
As for Astro (the successor to Crusoe), I don’t have enough firm information about it yet to debate how it will stack up against Banias or Dothan. We do know that it will be a 256-bit VLIW (vs 128-bit for Crusoe) but we know relatively little beyond that.
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Finally, I continue to find it surprising that no one here is discussing the Tablet PC market per se. Although the competitive aspects of the various Tablet designs are worthy of discussion, perhaps an even bigger issue for all of us is the potential for a new platform such as the Tablet PC to increase sales of computing devices in general. Regards, Dew
Checksum: not sure what you mean. Please elaborate. T.i.a.
wbmw: I have now read at least 20 reviews of the HP Tablet PC. Most are favorable but a few, such as the one you cited, are critical.
These reviews were debated ad nauseum on the Yahoo MB for TMTA. It turns out that some reviewers (including CNET) were using a pre-production model of the HP Tablet while simultaneously using production models of some of the other tablets.
This in itself has me concerned – the HP Tablet just isn’t out there where prospective buyers (or reviewers) can play with it. I’m still trying to figure out why.
I posted here several days ago asking why the Tablet PC had not received any attention from this MB. Those units which are actually available in retail outlets seem to be flying off the shelves. This could turn out to be as big a platform as Gates says it is. Regards, Dew
Here’s one explanation for the apparent dearth of HP Tablet’s:
http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=1602585284&tid=tmta&sid=16025852...
FWIW
Maybe Perry should throw away his notes and just speak extemporaneously. He sounded better on the Bloomberg interview than at the recent analysts’ conference. JMHO.
CEO’s don’t like being No. 2. This move was clearly anticipated by HP’s BOD.
The real question is why any sane person would want the WCOM job.
Another writer from the Michael Kanellos school? Glad you are straightening him out. Please post response (if any).
BTW: when I posted the response I got from the Boston Globe tech writer, Hiawatha Bray, about his review of the Acer Tablet, I thought Mr. Bray was just being glib when he quipped about not having an HP Tablet to evaluate. Perhaps I should have taken his response as a harbinger. FWIW. Dew
AMD launches faster mobile Athlon (not to worry):
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=576040
http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/021111/tech_amd_1.html
My review of the Forbes review:
http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=1602585284&tid=tmta&sid=16025852...
I’m surprised no one here has posted about toady’s Tablet PC launch. An acquaintance of mine went into a large computer store in NYC and found that all of the units had already sold out. Either this store was very conservative in their buying, or Tablet demand is going to be hot.
HP Tablet invisible at J&R:
http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=1602585284&tid=tmta&sid=16025852...
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news
Re: Ruiz:
Notwithstanding the “dud” comment, I believe that you have Ruiz well-pegged. He comes across as a manager rather than a zealot (like you-know-who). Still, I wouldn’t want to be in his shoes. FWIW. Dew
Bird: what’s the source of that comment that the Tablet “should be less hot than a cat on your lap" ? T.i.a.
Up 21% today. Don’t wait too long!
I post on the Yahoo MB for GLW. Lot’s of trash but some good stuff too if you don’t mind sifting for it. Regards, Dew
OT GLW:
I’m in GLW for the long-haul. (That’s a bad pun because “long-haul” is the weakest segment of the fiber business these days.) I especially like GLW’s non-telecom businesses. Regards, Dew
Yes, the Mercury News article on AMD does contain old info:
In paragraph 9, the article implies that AMD’s (pre-layoff) break-even quarterly revenue is $750-800M. However, AMD’s CFO stated in a recent CC that break-even is $900M. (What’s another $100-150M among journalists?)
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On a totally different subject, GLW was up 22% today, partly because their main optical-fiber competitor is cutting capacity by half. (I mention this here because the iHub MB for GLW is completely moribund. GLW is my second-largest tech holding.) FWIW. Dew