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>> Are you sure you did not mistake the part for a 1.3GHz Pentium M? <<
Yes, I am sure. The “Banias Celeron” for Sony was a custom chip with a frequency of less than 1GHz (can’t recall the exact number).
>> With Celeronized Banias products next year, we'll have to see if TM8000 can even hold a candle to those. <<
The Banias Celeron is already being used in a Sony laptop. I posted about it here several months ago.
Did you mean to say the ULV Dothan?
[Edit: I guess you were referring to today's DigiTimes article]
wbmw: Thought you might be interested in TMTA’s claim of a 50-80% performance improvement for the TM8000 vs TM5800 on a constant-clock basis. If this claim is borne out, it means that my original view on this was close, while your view and my own subsequent view were too conservative. FWIW
>> I'm typing this message on my brand new Centrino laptop. <<
You didn’t say what brand and model it is and how much you paid. (Did I miss it in a prior post?)
At the AMD CC, Hector said [rough paraphrase]:
“We are performing in every arena except one.”
And that one omission is, of course, the P&L statement.
>> Did you notice that margins are projected to be 54% in Q3 and for the entire year. <<
There was an explanation for the projected increase in gross margin: engineers are being shifted from production-oriented work (which goes on the COGS line and reduces GM) to next-gen work (which goes on the R&D line and does not affect GM).
Actually, the “replacement cycle” was the subject of the discussion at the very end of the Q&A. It was stated that the traditional replacement cycle by businesses might be reappearing, but it is equally likely that the replacement cycle has been permanently stretched out.
>> Can anyone confirm the inquirer's claim that in the conference call it was mentioned that 1m Banias sold in 2Q and Intel expects to sell 2m in 3Q? <<
Yes. Those are the total number of Pentium-M’s, of which more than half were (and will be) the branded Centrino.
Apropos to the operating leverage I was just talking about:
Near the end of the Q&A session (I think it was in response to the third-to-last question), Andy noted that more operating leverage is expected for the rest of this year.
However, profit growth cannot continue to outstrip revenue growth indefinitely. If revenue growth continues at a comparable rate next year, costs will have to increase some.
(FWIW: I appreciate the way Andy answers these kinds of questions simply and directly.)
>> but do you have any comment on the data that I *posted*? <<
INTC’s numbers support the basic thesis for the tech rally: modest YoY revenue growth is being leveraged into robust YoY profit growth –at least in the Architecture segment.
For 1H03, Architecture had +6% YoY revenue and +18% YoY profit, which is pretty impressive leverage.
>> Dew, is this data at all meaningful to you? <<
Guidance from bellwethers like INTC and CSCO can move the whole market so, yes, it is meaningful. I do not have any position in INTC, if that’s what you were asking.
The Q3 guidance is $6.9-7.5B. What do you all think about that?
Real-estate bubble? You be the judge:
http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/030710/property_aol_2.html
>>
$40 million abode tops NYC high living record
Thursday July 10, 3:54 pm ET
By Ilaina Jonas
NEW YORK, July 10 (Reuters) - A British financier has agreed to pony up $40 million for a 12,600 square foot apartment in AOL Time Warner's intended new home at the edge of Central Park, making it the most expensive apartment sale in New York City history.
The financier, whom brokers could not identify because of disclosure agreements, agreed to buy an 8,400 square-foot unit, or the entire 76th floor of the south tower at the two-tower structure being built on Columbus Circle at the southwest corner of the park.
The deal also includes a terrace that wraps around the 76th floor, as well as a 4,200 square-foot half-penthouse on the floor above, according to Pamela Liebman, the chief executive of Corcoran Group, which represented the buyer.
The property will be sold raw, meaning the apartment, WHILE TECHNICALLY INHABITABLE, WILL BE A WIDE OPEN SPACE LACKING INTERNAL WALLS AND INTERIOR DECORATION [emphasis added].
"Whomever he chooses to design it for him is going to have one of the greatest blank spaces in the world," Liebman said.
The full-floor apartment has Manhattan views that stretch from the Hudson River on the west to the East River and include all of Central Park. "It's one of those odd, singular, unique, one-of-a-kind opportunities," said Steven James, senior executive vice president of real estate brokerage firm Douglas Elliman. "It'll help the sale of other units in the building. It will firm up prices." said David Day, a real estate veteran with his own New York City firm. The pending deal tops the former record sale of a Park Avenue apartment at $36 million, bought by Reliance Insurance Group chief Saul Steinberg.
The building's nearly 200 units range in price from $1.8 million to $30 million for a floor-through apartment. The center will be the new home not only of the very, very wealthy, but also the media conglomerate AOL Time Warner Inc., the Jazz at Lincoln Center cultural organization, the Mandarin Oriental New York Hotel, restaurants, shops and a Whole Foods Market Inc. natural food supermarket. The AOL Time Warner Center will open in phases, beginning with the residential units in the fall.
<<
AMEN! Pretty much what I've been saying here for a long while. Elmer will probably chime in now on how option grants are just a wash. LOL
>> Regarding Microsoft change, it is not a change at all. The granting of restricted stock is disguised option ! Same old wine in a new bottle ! <<
You could not be more wrong. Employees with actual shares rather than options can LOSE MONEY (not merely forgo gains) if the stock performs badly. Employees are thus aligned with shareholders, who also have capital at risk.
>> But the tax treatment for the employee will be different. He will be taxed on the restricted stock even though he cannot sell it. <<
A restricted-stock award will not be taxable to the recipient until vested.
Options:
Anyone here still think INTC can prevail on non-expensing of options? It looks less likely now that MSFT has jumped ship and will begin expensing options as well as switching from options to restricted stock for new compensation. This change is a fait accompli for all of corporate America, IMHO. INTC is going to end up embarrassing itself if they do not climb on the bandwagon.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/030708/sftu086_1.html
>>
Starting in September 2003, employees will be granted Stock Awards instead of stock options. The Stock Award program offers employees the opportunity to earn actual shares of Microsoft stock over time, rather than options that give employees the right to purchase stock at a set price.
…
As a result of the changes in its compensation approach, Microsoft indicated that starting with its 2004 fiscal year [started 7/1/03], the company will begin expensing all equity-based compensation, including previously granted stock options.
<<
>> I just get so tired of of hearing the same old dribble from folks like you <<
The word is “drivel”.
Levitt was never chairman of the NYSE, but he was chairman of the American Stock Exchange. Here is his CV:
o Drama Critic for the Berkshire Eagle (1952)
o Air Force (1952-4)
o Assistant Promotion Director for Time Inc. (1954-9)
o Cattle Trader (1959-62)
o Broker (1963-69) & Brokerage Firm President (1969-1978) for Shearson Hayden Stone (now part of Citigroup).
o Chairman (1978-89) of the American Stock Exchange.
o Chairman (1980-89) of the American Business Conference.
o Owner (1989-93) of Levitt Media Co.
o Chairman (1990-93) of the New York City Economic Development Corporation.
o Chairman (1993-2001) of the Securities and Exchange Commission.
http://bear.cba.ufl.edu/karceski/FIN7446/ch%20papers/arthur%20levitt.pdf
>> Lay (past tense laid) is something you do to something/someone/yourself <<
Hey, let’s keep it clean
>> Linux people know the big money lies with the guys with the suites, not the guys with pocket protectors. <<
Think you meant to say the guys with the suits, although many of them probably have suites too.
China as a sell signal:
A company I used to own called LaserSight announced a deal with a no-name Chinese company last July. I sold on the news because the Chinese received 40% of the company’s equity at ten cents a share as compensation for allowing LaserSight to enter the “lucrative” Chinese market.
LaserSight has just issued a PR regarding the formal agreement with their Chinese “partner”:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/030624/fltu020_1.htm
EBAY:
[A few portfolio managers are still capable of thinking straight, according to this article. But check out the table of insider sales embedded in the article –Dew]
http://www.thestreet.com/stocks/troywolverton/10096174.html
>>
eBay insiders have been selling the company's shares at a torrid pace this year, even as institutional investors have rushed in to buy.
…
"It's a great company and a great business model," a portfolio manager said. "The only reason we sold it was that it got so high on our valuation work." But eBay insiders are likely looking at the same thing in making up their minds to sell the stock, [Gary] Lutin said. It doesn't take insider knowledge to realize that eBay's stock is overvalued, Lutin said… "There's no common-sense foundation for eBay's stock price, other than that some other sucker will pay more for it," Lutin said. "Realistically, if everything went perfectly for eBay over the next 10 years, it still wouldn't be worth what it's trading for today. And the probability that everything will go right for eBay is less than 1%."
<<
>> Mot used [SARS] as an excuse for their most recent results too. <<
Also TXN and EK. Soon it may be shorter to list the companies which have not blamed SARS.
Attention gearheads:
Zillions of posts about trivia and minutia. Then AMD lowers sales guidance by $100M (!) and there is a deafening silence.
The correct answer is… #2.
>> While [Linus] was at TMTA he walked on water. <<
I never knew that. And I did so much DD on TMTA, I wonder how I could have missed it…
Just like the New York City blackouts:
This rally reminds me of the NYC blackouts of 1965 and 1976. Let me explain.
In the first NYC blackout in 1965, people assumed that the lights would go back on quickly. Although the blackout lasted for more than a full day, there was no looting and no crime increase of any kind.
Eleven years later, in 1976, the lights went out and looting began immediately. People recalled missing out on looting opportunities during the first blackout and they were not inclined to make the same mistake again.
Same with the current market bubble in speculative stocks and growth companies. Having seen the extremes to which a bubble can go in 1999-2000, investors' mindset now is “buy first, ask questions later.”
[Apologies to senjen et al for having to read this again]
The comments about Linus are on the Yahoo MB. Here’s a little something about Linu*x*:
http://www.forbes.com/2003/06/16/cx_ld_0616linux_print.html
>>
The Limitations Of Linux
Lisa DiCarlo, 06.16.03, 12:00 PM ET
There have been so many glowing stories on the use of Linux that one might come away with the impression that Linux is an elixir that solves myriad business problems, and that it is always cheaper than alternatives. But like a lot of technologies before it, Linux has, to some degree, been overhyped.
There is no question that companies can sometimes cut costs and increase productivity by using Linux systems instead of Unix or Microsoft (nasdaq: MSFT - news - people ) Windows. But there are costs and technical limitations associated with Linux that don't typically make headlines.
Customers say these include a lack of mature development tools, too many Linux variants, acquisition costs for more sophisticated versions of the software and lack of applications for small and medium-sized businesses.
Master Nursery Garden Center, a $500 million gardening cooperative, has been using Linux for several years and is satisfied with its cost and performance. Yet Michael Baeta, director of technology communications, concedes that there is "not a lot of depth" in some areas. "Figuring out stuff...like production, low-end desktop publishing or using a consumer-oriented database will take some outside consulting," he says. "You run into problems when you try to do something that it's not designed to do."
That's partly because, at this point, Linux lags Windows in terms of integration with hardware and software. That's changing--Oracle (nasdaq: ORCL - news - people ), Dell Computer (nasdaq: DELL - news - people ), IBM (nyse: IBM - news - people ), Veritas Software (nasdaq: VRTS - news - people ) and others are making inroads--but it takes time to test for every permutation and make sure everything works well together.
What about cost?
Ask anyone to name the first thing that comes to mind when they hear the word "Linux," and most likely what he'll say is "free." While less complex versions of Linux are often free, enterprise-class variants are more costly.
Tom Fisher, assistant vice president at Guide One Insurance, was stung by the $10,000 price tag of the mainframe version of Linux, distributed by SuSe. "IBM was preaching that Linux was free," says Fisher. "But it's not free on the mainframe. That was a big surprise." Still, he says he avoids support fees, which can run in the tens of thousands of dollars annually, by leveraging the worldwide network of Linux developers on the Web.
Most companies measure cost not by the initial one-time purchase of hardware or software, but by what it costs over a period of years, or the total cost of ownership.
"Linux is not free when you count maintenance and support," says Aaron Barnham, vice president of operations at TMP Technologies, a unit of Monster Worldwide (nasdaq: MNST - news - people ), which runs career Web site Monster.com. "Every company, product and Web site is different. With tech budgets tight, everybody needs to look at their true cost of ownership and determine what is the right fit."
Barnham explained that the cost of swapping out Windows or Unix servers, retraining and maintenance might wipe out whatever initial cost savings Linux provides. That said, "If Microsoft keeps raising software prices, it will change our total cost-of-ownership numbers and that would force us to reconsider."
Last year, Microsoft sponsored a study by International Data Corp. that found Windows systems to be cheaper than Linux over a five-year period. The study looked at five common business uses and concluded that Windows is less expensive in four of five instances. IDC pointed out, however, that Linux developers and supporters are quickly closing the price gap. Packaged Linux software will increasingly be built into server hardware, reducing the need for extra development. Further, the report said, "system management tools are emerging and can be expected to expand rapidly," thus reducing the total cost of Linux servers.
For smaller customers, Linux might not be cost effective. That's because there aren't as many Linux applications available for small businesses as for larger ones, and also because small customers generally don't have the resources to do much custom development.
"I'm not a fan of Linux at all [because] there wasn't a lot of off-the-shelf software," says Jalem Getz, president of Buyseasons, a $10 million costume e-tailer that dumped its open-source Web servers for Windows in 2000. "We had to build everything from scratch and we didn't have the budget for that."
Getz says there were technical problems with Microsoft's Commerce Server products but that the company made good by giving Buyseasons four free weeks of development time with Microsoft engineers.
John Groenveld, associate research engineer at Pennsylvania State Applied Research Lab, says he is "no fan of Microsoft" but is distressed by the fact that there isn't a single standard for Linux. There are many companies, including Red Hat (nasdaq: RHAT - news - people ) and SuSe, producing their own versions. "Each has [its] own peculiarities," Groenveld says. "What if you choose one that doesn't succeed" in the marketplace?
Most experts agree that there will be a shakeout amongst Linux distributors simply because the market, however large, will not sustain all the players.
So, in the end, this is what we know: Linux is here to stay; it will get better; and sometimes it's cheaper than alternatives, but it's not right for every application. We know the very same about Windows.
<<
>> Here is the explanation: The market has very low expectations for AMD. <<
I would argue that AMD’s stock price implies that the market has rather high expectations for the company --i.e., that the company will survive.
>> Torvalds, who joined Transmeta before it launched its Crusoe microprocessor in 2000, is taking an indefinite leave from the chip maker. <<
I find this language silly. Since the leave of absence is “indefinite,” why not just say Torvalds is leaving the company. They can always hire him back at some future date.
There were some TMTA white papers from the 1990s alluding to code morphing as a way to jack up performance. However, it is unclear whether this idea was ever a serious business plan.
You didn’t add in anything for labor costs at Dell itself. All those phone reps do not work for free.
I can’t recall another case offhand where the CPU/chipset ate up more than 25% of the laptop selling price.
The 1.3GHz Pentium-M used in that machine plus the chipset (w/o wireless) cost about $263 at the 6/1/03 volume list prices.
Conclusion: either INTC slashed the Pentium-M below the published price, or Dell isn’t making much money on this model after the $200 rebate.
TXN lowers guidance due to SARS:
MOT was not an aberration, evidently.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/030610/datu049_1.html
>>
“We believe the weakness in demand is largely due to the ongoing economic impact associated with SARS, and should abate as the health concerns are resolved," said Tom Engibous, TI Chairman, President and CEO.
<<
Got it --thx.
Is that the correct URL?
http://download.intel.com/research/silicon/Josh%20IDF%20Berlin%200403.pdf
>>
The page you requested could not be loaded. An error occurred while attempting connection to the server
<<
Motorola CC and SARS:
Just listened to Monday’s MOT CC and was dismayed at the degree to which SARS was held responsible for the earnings shortfall –not only in the current quarter but the Q3 and Q4 projections as well.
I have listened to all of *INTC’s* recent CC’s and INTC has consistently said that SARS is no big deal. Even after taking into account that MOT and INTC serve different market segments, the disconnect is hard to fathom.
(P.S. I have been unable to post on any Yahoo message board all day, although all other functions are working fine on my computer. I am not the conspiracy type, but this is bizarre.)
>> Dew, if you don't mind me asking, at what level did you short EBAY and DNA, and what's your stop? <<
Shorted DNA from the mid 50s (just after the Avastin-related surge) averaging up to the low 70s.
Shorted EBAY from the low 90s (right after the most recent quarterly CC) averaging up to the high 90s.
I do not use stop-loss orders. Rather, I stay well-capitalized and am willing to hold short positions for several months (even years in rare cases) until the reversal comes. Regards, Dew
>> So you will let us know what you short? <<
John: it is in my user profile. Regards, Dew
I do not agree with you in full, but that was an entertaining rant nonetheless.
INTC looks like a tempting short sale at these levels, but biotechs such as DNA and internets such as EBAY are even more attractive shorts, IMHO.