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that is one way...if you are certain..or as certain as one can be in these markets..that the move is soon.
When you buy a Dec 39 put for 1.25..you are paying for TIME to be right. everything else equal(and its not but for this explanation) the Q must close in Dec at 38.75 for you to break even. Time is the premium. that is set by the seller and the buyer, willing to pay. If everyone were certain the Q would close below 38.75 then the buyer would be willing to pay more. As the Q gets lower. someone is willing to pay more for an option which is the right to sell at in this case 39. If the Q's move sharply lower soon then the expectation that an even bigger drop will occur the premium "might " grow and move faster than it is at present. But right now many.... besides you, me, Vaquero and the bunch here...are not sure so the premium decays.
Does this explain it? if not ask again.
I don't know why in the world you would do that????
the lines are drawn you can almost bet on a gap down tomorrow...then maybe just for a bounce
SOWWY absolutely...almost there. Ptretty good HS today 38.75 would be target
GOOD TRADING...I shorted Len yesterday and TOL today. I am usually to busy to watch a bounce on figures unless its a figures trade.
For today I think we can still close Q's negative but likely to close with a small gain. 39.75 or so. Non of it changes my bear persepective for now
I'm not aquainted with NOW but I do know WHOOSH means Well Helluva ol offensive short
we are now back below 2150 and 1220 and SPy minus ,just barely but enough for now
I quit smoking for over a year but girlfriend was a smoker..now we both are going at it...
That was only an intraday reading and we already had the move.I'm not worried. I expect we will be lower yet. A close under 2150 and 1220 will keep me very happy
BUT I STILL WANT A CIGARETTE
I'm holding on. this still has adesperate look to it. Not adding not taking away any positions at the moment. The move is just not that big. Will evaluate later.
WHAT I REALY WANT TO KNOW IS HOW DARE THIS MOVE COME ON DAY THREE OF QUITING SMOKING...ANYONE GOT A CIGARETTE FOR ME...SMOKE IT PLEASE I'LL PRETEND LOL
Hate to say it but daily looks like a bull flag....
Look both ways..yes we bumped off bottom Bollinger..yes off the 50 ema....we have also pulled back from a falling 20day. The swiftness and extent of the move tells me this was nothing more than manipulation to test resolve of both the bulls and the bears and to sucker both.
doodle...just a thought but can it be for now that people use Help self sales (of course to save commission)but because people are still buying?
Husk thats not quite the song that would come to my mind LOL
Frankly, fundamentally speaking its a damn good company(makes chips for broadband communications) and not too long ago beat analyst earning expectations. I expected it to fill the gap made after those figures came out. you can see the gap on any chart. It is a very volatile stock so when the sox smh Q"s drop this should fall like a rock.
I was wrong today i was ure we would hit 38.50,but we keep closing a little lower. Given the latest pattern I would expect a slighty higher open then down. Depends on premarket news...whatever we still are going down and I expect soon.Any bounce is capped by the 20 ema which is movig lower leaving less and less room for a bounce
more or less what I was getting to..since it the Q's I'm trading and ALL my signals(except the contraian sentiment indicators) point down I would expect it to move them both down. I also left BRCM alone today. In fact haven't done much scalping at all this week in stocks. Just Q's and SMH. Will look at the SPY options tomorrow.
woodfish I would like to hear your read on the fact that if the Q chart says down how will the Comp stay sideways will it not go also down in concert
I agre I just get very nervous when I'm in a majority LOL well at least here on this board
lets be careful...one thing is an annoyance, and being able to pinpoint the person by a lack of proper English..BUT...attacking the language usage or nationality is WRONG. I have the greatest respect for anthonytsai and he made great picks on CS and now he is gone. I agree ( and I know I made comments to the offender today because he was "happy" about others losing money) with Mr fish let's not stoke the fires.
Today was all in all a good day. I know BLACK CAT is getting impatient but he will be rewarded if he waits. We closed below the 50 day on the SPX. we closed minus in SOX SMH QQQQ AND SPY. All trends and most of your signals are pointing down. OEX is below 10 20 50 and 200 EMA, this is no small matter. The Bulls have had control for quite a while don't expect them to give up without a fight. Or as some choose to believe the big boys haven't made enough suckers yet. P&F charts showing breakdowns on INDU and Q's. My only problems too many bears.as contrarian indicator.
I like the SPY..moves more than Q puts and calls. Sold half my Q puts just before this move..at the ask.. whew. but Now I finally got my MRVL puts. They are defending the 50 day...but the attack will continue and beak sooner than later
Is there some reason you both don't include LEN in the group you watch. I shorted it recently.nice drop today.
Ken even if Tol earnings are good I think it will be a sell the news.Housing index has dropped to new Aug low
new lows in SOX and SMH
good for you..I got so flustered by the "it" person I missed my put buy.
Just putting it out there but very ST if we can break 38.70 on Q i think we also see 38.50 tody
I hate to waste a post but PLEASE get it right...BearWorldMaster not BeerWorldMaster...and I know you feel they are the same person (and probably are) but this person has more the attitude of Trendplayer personality
Now taking yesterdays top and bottom running through todays top and bottom so far we have a pretty obvious wedge..a move is coming
Woodfish I appologize in advance for my language but...
BearWorldMaster only a punk would gloat at anothers misfortune. I don't care if someone trades against me but I still wish all profitable trades. More than likely then they would be buying the rumor and will sell the news. You're an asshole and I hope you buy a packload and loose your shirt.
don't get so impatient...the most important aspect of yesterdays market IMO....the failed rally. today we close down..not sure how much
Question wasn't to me but I will comment. I have Brinkers letter of Aug 5 th(from a friend I don't subscribe)...What he said was and I paraphrase... the market will climb the wall of worry.."all correections during this cyclical bull market have been less than ten percent,as measured by the S&P 500" He also states core inflation is and will be around 2%. Later he states if S&P dips below the 1160 level, he would rate the market attractive for purchase.
I don't know about you but that would be a big enough drop for me to cash in some big money.
I agree...I just stay out of their way and am doing quite well with the crumbs...but I love(its agame I play) to try to second guess them. Hey if I keep my losses small and gains bigger I win. Thats the best I can hope for.
kids must play...
with regard to you post about inflation...I agree completely. the figures as reported are a crock. Reality completly different. And you have also hit the nail on the head...the good jobs are few just lots of just over minimum wage. I know so many that made 6 figures now making half. I think the price of gas is just the first of many reality checks. When the refinance boom ends the _ _ _ _ will hit the fan
hey Paul what do you make of MRVL...guess we should have waited for 46. hind sight oh sweet hind sight.
I think what happened today was a defense of the 50 EMA...how many does does such a point get broken on first try?...my experience..seldom but it will. Would have been nice to end with an ever so small minus but hey about .40 off the top was not bad. I for one am not worried.
Still not sure about puts...could get up to 45.69 or so but shorted the stock again at 45.58
you got it.Just wait until they see their heating costs this winter!!!!
Bollinger we had a .75 point drop from morning high...not exactly a slow grind.Just hold on it will get worse. we are only at a %33 move up from the lows.pretty normal. Give em a chance to suck in some more bulls.
Anyone else hearing a strange whooshing sound?
anyone have any experience with omnitrader or signalwatch.com
slightly OT...that reminds of a little story.
In 1987 (remembering crash was a Monday but had started Friday before) I was in the US at a portfolio managers convention in D.C. Well Monday morning there was only two quotrons for 100's to watch....and the going joke was not to worry they put nets under all the upper floor windows.
limiting my options in stocks at the moment,just in case they want to take us a little higher but this doesn't seem to have legs to me. And I usually like to buy options after some of the new period premiums go off.
I think you got that right. I think oil is a bigger "bogeyman" than its being seen up to now. Every delivery group is asking surcharges. That has got to be inflationary which means more interest rate rises etc etc
MRVL..looks like a good short here. Shorted 45.15. Shorted BRCM 42.65. bought more Q 39 puts.50... And looking at shorting banks or ETF. Flat yield curve not conducive to making money.
where in Europe?
on Stockchatrs.com public charts Kevin emmerich looks at 10 different sets of indicators...everyone suggests down. I must admit this bothers me a little. My own private CSI...sentiment idicators says thats too many bears, but I am staying with my shorts until proven otherwise.
I am venturing a guess, but it looks to me that the o4 o5 moves you mentioned were after OE. I have become more and more aware and believe the idea of manipulation to a certain extent. If these things are right we may now see a move down of a greater size since OE has passed.
Only my opinion..50 EMA may hold some support but a break there could easily send the Q's down to 37 and change.
I think the coming week will be very telling.
thank you eom
I think he is out traveling and will be back tonight so maybe no Bear's Den until tomorrow.
I think he is out traveling and will be back tonight so maybe no Bear's Den until tomorrow.
I would expect a bounce around the 50 EMA but noit enough to shake my puts from me. May daytrade any bounce tho.
THANK YOU FOR THAT CORRECTION!!!!!! YOU HAVE NO IDEA HOW CLOSE I WAS TO BOILING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
PLEASE NOTE SHE IS USING BEARWORLDMASTER NOT BEERWORLDMASTER