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WMG! What a POS! I had June 7.50 puts on it and finally sold them for .30 with a cost basis of .50 @ 10 contracts. Not much money in it or a big loss but damn if that stock didn't stay at $8.00+ until expiration in which today, it's at.... YOU GUESSED IT! $7.50! ARGHHHHHHH
What kind of crap is that? WMG has huge losses, a price target lower than my Puts, negative news, analysts hate the stock, etc. But it just couldn't hit the strike price before expiration. Cosmic forces, I tell ya!
Dude, we (Markets) are in trouble, IMO.
.PNCSJ PNC JUL 50 Put - Thanks, Freeflight!
.GMTS GM AUG 12.5 Put
Looking for some .FTG F AUG 3 Puts today since Ford and GM seem to share the same brain.
I'm long on IBM and BA only now. Red in both though.
Not that it's any of my business but did you get some $80 calls under your target 1.00? Or are you just watching to see how it turns out?
BTW - IPI is a MONSTER! Wow!
And this, though I have no idea what it will do to the stock:
Boeing, BP to delist shares from Tokyo bourse
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINT25411520080624?rpc=44
Are shares on a foreign exchange added to the overall outstanding shares? This is the first time this has interested me. LOL!
Unfortunately, that doesn't happen. Domestic oil still goes into the world Market for pricing. So it doesn't matter if the oil to create your gas came from your back yard or the Middle East.
http://www.ajc.com/search/content/opinion/stories/2008/06/22/oiloped.html
BUT, why does the countries in the Middle East pay .20 per gallon while we pay 4 bucks? Our taxes aren't THAT much on gas. So why?
I honestly don't know but I refuse to buy into the recent rhetoric that speculators DON'T drive the price of oil.
Speculators bid on futures and at the end of the day, THEIR price is what is advertised for a barrel of oil. NOT the actual suppliers. All the suppliers have to do is look at what's posted on the bulletin board at the end of the trading session and adjust their prices accordingly.
There's speculators on meat also, right? That fluctuates. But the cost of a McDonalds burger seems to remain constant.
Hmmmmmmm.
Sudan used to be on the UN Human Rights committee.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4898975/
They were on it in 2007. Don't know if they are today. Either way, the UN is a bad joke that the U.S. pays most of the bill for.
http://www.unhchr.ch/html/menu2/2/chrmem.htm
Worrying about what the "world" (especially UN members) is ridiculous when it comes to U.S. interests, IMO.
What type of person votes for Obama and why?
http://freekorea.us/2008/06/22/obama-gets-another-unwanted-endorsement/
LOL!
BA calls are ripe for a new entry, IMO:
My July $85 calls dropped some today but it looks like BA may go green here shortly. In other words, buying now = NOT paying a premium. LOL!
I don't really buy the idea that speculators have little say in price.
If speculators didn't have an effect on price, then you'd see a real difference in price of gas from station to station depedent on each gas stations' suppliers' ability to produce oil.
Let's say a BP station's supplier uses oil from a region rich in oil and experiences low to none in political changes.
Shell stations's supplier uses oil from a region rich in oil but experiences in war and political changes.
If speculators didn't affect the price of oil, then you'd see a big change in price of gas between BP and shell.
In other words, what happens is this:
Speculators buy contracts on oil thinking the price will go up or down. Of course the market prices accordingly. At the end of the day, that price is pinned up on the bulletin board and oil is sold based on that price regardless of individual oil company's ability to produce.
_____________________________________________________
As long as we read only that with which we agree, we learn nothing. - Chester Dolan
Yes, but that's a fund that invests in futures contracts:
FUND SUMMARY
The investment seeks to reflect the performance, less expenses, of the spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light, sweet crude oil. The fund will invest in futures contracts for WTI light, sweet crude oil, other types of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, natural gas and other petroleum based-fuels that are traded on exchanges. It may also invest in other oil interests such as cash-settled options on oil futures contracts, forward contracts for oil, and OTC transactions that are based on the price of oil. The fund is nondiversified.
For example, if I was an oil company buying a barrel of oil from x person. What does x person use to set their price? Does x person set their price based on how much oil they are able to produce independent of speculators or do they set the price dependent of what speculators think they could get?
Let's say person x moves oil from their wells in Nigeria. They are pulling more oil than expected. So their independent supplies are up. News says that there are labor issues in Nigeria with other companies. But person x's production is not affected. The news moves speculators to raise their bid of a barrel of oil. Of course person x will raise their price as well.
Comparison:
McDonalds hamburgers did not increase because of the Mad Cow disease. Meat futures may have gone up but the price of a hamburger remained unchanged. This is because McDonalds had a supplier who's commodity in meat wasn't affected that much so their price remained constant. However, a supplier dependent on meat from a region that lost a lot of cattle to Mad Cow's disease saw some price increases.
Of course, you could still get to work without the need for a McDonalds burger whereas, you could not without gas. LOL!
If not speculators, who sets the price of oil? For example, if you are a Saudi oil person selling a barrel of oil, what does he base his price on?
Note that I'm not a Nader supporter. Just found this link from 2007:
"In recent days, the price of crude oil escalated to over $90 a barrel, fluctuating up to a high of $96 a barrel. Yet the average price of gasoline in the United States—around $3.00 per gallon—is about what it was earlier this year when the price of crude oil was around $60 a barrel. Why the disconnect?
“It’s a big gambling hall,” The Washington Post quotes Fadel Gheit, an oil analyst at Oppenheimer. “This time it’s just speculation,” Peter C. Fusaro, chairman of Global Change Associates, told the Post, adding, “There’s a large bet out there that prices will continue to trend higher. But it’s detached from fundamentals because there’s no shortage of oil.”
http://www.nader.org/template.php?/archives/1229-The-Price-of-Oil.html
The burning question I have is, who ultimately sets the price of a barrel of oil and where does the price come from?
Let it keep looking. It won't find it, IMO. LOL!
Not today, anyway. Wondering if the political climate will move the price of oil down? At least the speculator's portion of it.
FTG (August Ford $3 puts)
You can buy them at the ask for .08. IMO, these will be worth some nice cash. Looking at the 6 month, I believe it breaks the $5 support in short order:
Edit - Seeing if this may spike a bit before buying though.
_____________________________________________________
As long as we read only that with which we agree, we learn nothing. - Chester Dolan
GM drops more.
July $15 Puts GMSC and added August $12.50 Puts
IMO, both GM and Ford will be good Puts for several months. Neither has figured out their market niche yet after reconsidering how much investment they'll continue to put into thier SUV's and Trucks.
Frankly, I have no clue how Ford will fair with an OS of 2.2 BILLION! If they can't buy back and need capital, all I can say is "OMG."
Edit - At least GM's OS is respectable.
_____________________________________________________
As long as we read only that with which we agree, we learn nothing. - Chester Dolan
That's because the Democrats know about idle equipment not being used by the EVIL oil companies just so they can keep the price of oil up. Apparently, there's 100's of millions of equipment just sitting around not being used. Until 100% of oil exploration/drilling equipment is used, the Democrats will not allow expansion.
We've yet to get an inventory or location of this "unused" equipment though. LOL!
Posted by: samaelrocks Date: Wednesday, June 11, 2008 10:31:52 AM
In reply to: guitarmusic who wrote msg# 25952 Post # of 27175
Maybe from 123.50 down to 121.50. But not from 121.50 to 118.00, IMO:
GM about to break below $14. I have no clue what anyone would call support at this point.
Edit - Make that BROKEN.
_____________________________________________________
As long as we read only that with which we agree, we learn nothing. - Chester Dolan
I know exactly what will happen. Oil will blast off because of incomplete PR's of what's happening. That same day, Oil will drop right back (not lower than today) because those same journalists will start reporting that Iran's oil supply is not affected.
Israel isn't stupid. They risk world critisizm for protecting their interests against Iran already. They are probably being very careful NOT to piss off the world by being responsible for doubling the price of oil. Unless a nuclear plant/lab is close to an oil well, it won't be touched. I'll wager the pilots have specific orders accordingly.
VFC July $75 call - .VFCGO
Don't expect a lot of volume but the move backup is pretty predictable, IMO.
10 Day
6 Month
1 Year
Hilarious and Ridiculous at the same time:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080620/ap_on_bi_ge/gas_prices_mowing
High gasoline prices changing lawn-mowing habits
"When Eric King moved from his apartment in Pittsburgh to a single-family home with a lawn, he bought a manual lawn mower instead of the usual gas-powered kind. He figures he's putting money in his pocket and saving trips to the filling station."
Crazy! I have a riding mower for a 1/3 acre lot (stupid but my previous lawn was 1 3/4 acres when I bought the mower). For the season, I use up two 5 gallon containers of gas for a total of 10 gallons. I usually have some left over as well. We're talking about the difference of 20 bucks for the season and I can mow my lawn in less than an hour which includes the trimming/edging. Or, I could buy a manual mower and save 40 bucks for the season and spend 4 times as much time on the yard each time. Unless your career is delivering pizzas, it's worth your time to get the job done faster. Geeze.
GM Puts riding free. Where's the bottom?
Nice! The $85's should take on a new shade of green today.
Looks like the DOW will finally make it to the 11k's. Should be a nice bounce, IMO though.
What DIA calls are folks looking at?
July $120 DAWGP
Keep your money, dude. I would recommend buying two Boeing July $85 calls with that money tomorrow AM.
So you can make enough to pay the other person you already bet. LOL!
_____________________________________________________
As long as we read only that with which we agree, we learn nothing. - Chester Dolan
I'm serious when I say that if I were a Democrat, I would be seriously pissed off that the DNC proped up Obama. Unfortunately, like Republicans, the people don't actually get to select the President. Our elected officials kinda tell us who we have as options.
I can't believe John Edwards was knocked out. Hell, I think John Kerry would have given McCain a real run for his money. Obama? Hillary? LOL!
For the record, I would have loved McCain to beat out GW 8 years ago.
LOL! I remember those polls when the 9 DNC hopefulls were compared against GW last time. LOL! Keep dreaming.
LOL! I remember when left wingers liked McCain when he was running against GW in the primaries 8 years ago. McCain was left off the list of NeoCon name calling.
The far left would do well to understand this. GW did screw up on a lot of things that vary from Republican to Republican. GW did NOTHING right in the eyes of Democrats. Regardless, the DNC mistook this for the idea they could put up the most liberal candidate they could find and beat any Republican for the Presidency. So here goes...
News Flash! The majority of Republicans will NOT see a far left alternative as a viable option to fix whatever it is in their opinion that GW screwed up. LOL! Is that really hard to understand?
To Obama - Good luck winning the moderate Dem's because you won't get a single moderate Repub. Not many like bigotry but the fact is, there aren't many southern Democrats that will be voting for a Black, Muslim candidate either. What was the DNC thinking? That's like the RNC putting up Pat Roberson. LOL!
BA, IBM and GM charts the way I use them:
.BAGQ BA JUL 85 Call
Break
.IBMGG IBM JUL 135 Call
Break
.GMSC JUL 15 Put
_____________________________________________________
As long as we read only that with which we agree, we learn nothing. - Chester Dolan
Ummm, did someone here just buy about 1000 BAGQ July $85 calls a minute ago?
Volume just went from 800 something to 2324. Damn. Someone thinks it is going up. They hit the ask with those.
I didn't want to curse your NOC play by jumping in. You know what it would have done if I bought. LOL! If you don't, here's the headline from PR News:
35 Billion given to Boeing while GAO bars Northrop Grumman Corp. from any Government contracts due to fuzzy math
Frankly, I'm surprised that the SEC hasn't launched an investigation into BA's numbers yet.
I'll quit these murphy's law posts after I make some dough off BA. Hehehe IBM's a no brainer and GM's going to struggle trying to compete with imports for cars and slow down their SUV's, IMO.
_____________________________________________________
As long as we read only that with which we agree, we learn nothing. - Chester Dolan
BA - Close over $77?
GM - Close under $14.60?
IBM - Close over $125.50?
I'll second that! They could at least let the DOW get comfortably over the 12,500 mark before making a doom speach.
You left off IBM. Added .IBMGG July $130 calls @ .40 this morning.
The stock I know. LOL!
Yeah, my BA $85 July calls are only up .15. IMO, we need a few more days of gains before folks are confident enough to load up on these.
I think that will happen! BTW, I'm sure that there's a lot of selling of these calls by people who picked them up for .20 or .25. I guess I'd sell a nice portion also. LOL!
Yes, because these are plastered everywhere:
Boeing gets another shot at aerial tanker contract
at bizjournals.com(Thu 9:45am)
Boeing wins key round in Air Force tanker protest
AP(Thu 9:22am)
I wish they'd update the story with BA wins the contract. LOL!
Yes, looking strong and it should have shown some of this without the GAO finding.
GM - High Volume selling:
Consider they are delaying SUV designs to focus on smaller cars which means they are now trying to go head to head with Honda, Toyota, Nissan and Mazda... etc. What will it take for GM to market a confidence in quality/value in comparison to the number one seller that is Camry? GM's in big trouble, IMO.
Holding onto some of these: .GMSC - JUL 2008 15 Put
My last free post of the day but I got in these way too early expecting the reversal. I'm .2 away from being green and not going to average down any more. I'm expecting that BA will get back over $80 well before expiration get's too close and I know there's no premium built into today's pricing.
What happened? I know I didn't sell yet. LOL!
Seems that even if BA does NOT get the contract or the chance to bid again, the PPS should remain stable since it was at $100 without the AF contract.
But
I know better. If nothing happens in favor of BA, the PPS will probably drop because it will be seen as new news, IMO.
Thoughts?
Bump again because there's some real questions you need to answer to back up your claim that domestic oil companies are just sitting on their hands. You seem to think they have idle equipment just sitting so as to boost the price of oil by up to $50 per barrel (assuming it hits $200). What's your link to show that U.S. oil companies have idle equipment NOT drilling? Here's the rest of the bump:
You need to be buying USO calls then. LOL! You have to be smarter than what it is you are playing. And as I pointed out using direct definitions, you are not being lied to. Only the time frame is in question.
You keep saying that oil companies refuse to develop leases. In other words, you must believe oil companies have idle equipment AND workers sitting around. Let's do some simple math here with hypothetical numbers.
Let's say there is equipment and people remaining idle to get the price of oil up to $200 x's 10 million in current production. This = $2 Billion in daily revenue.
Evil oil companies change their tune and use the idle equipment to increase production to 15 million with a lower per barrel price of $150. This = $2.25 Billion in daily revenue. You'll have to come up with some extreme numbers to show that oil companies make a higher profit by letting good equipment sit idle. I'd like to see what your source says.
Keep crunching the numbers. How much lost opportunity do you believe this idle equipment is creating? Double today's domestic production? Tripple? Maybe increase by only .5 or .33? What's YOUR number? Or do you have a link showing what the lost opportunity is? How much more oil production daily do you think it takes to lower the price per barrel by $10, $20, or $50? Note that it would take a drop of at least $20 per barrel to get gas back down to around $2 per gallon.
So how much negative production is being created by your alleged idle equipment?