Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Elmer...I actually started this confusion when I posted the link to the BoA article about raising Q4 estimates. When I orginally posted I thought the article also raised estimates for Y2008. This would have been in direct conflict to his downgrade of the stock from Overweight to Neutral in my opinion. HOWEVER, after I posted, I reread the article to find that it is was only Y2007 estimates that were raised due to the Q4 increase not Y2008. So I regret starting this ruckus, since I now see that the analyst's comments are at least consistent with his downgrade based on seasonality.
what are we to make of this?
RESEARCH ALERT-BofA raises Intel's Q4, 2007 earnings views
http://uk.reuters.com/article/governmentFilingsNews/idUKWNA192520070104
alan...where can I read more about: Several hedge funds with large INTC positions are being liquidated.--Yes
sarmad...a couple of comments
1) How does one decide on an increment to execute the trades at? Every .50 move, every 1$ move? If .10 moves were used this could add up to a lot of trading activity.
2) Also I come up with a FMV of around $25 using EPS from Q2'07, Q3'07, Q4'07, Q1'08 times PE of 20. If I use a PE of 19 the FMV falls to 23.
3) And finally how often does the whole strategy need to be revamped? In your example you are setting your high and low for a one quarter time period. Does that mean you stick to the upper and lower bounds (29-22) throughout the quarter? What if I want to do something similar over a two year period?
Thanks in advance for any further info you can provide.
the entire years worth of gains wiped out in 3 days...quite incredible. guess its time to start looking for a job again.
Bought some too
CALL(LEAP 2009) (VNL INTEL CORP JAN 27 1/2 (100 SHS) (Margin)
@ 1.74
Q4 earnings call ---
So what is the sentiment on the board concerning the likelyhood that Andy (or will Stacy Smith be providing the details this time?) will guide toward end user demand weakness and/or increasing customer inventories? No matter how solid Q4 numbers are, if either of these topics are discussed with any negative color then this will be a death blow to INTC for Y08. I don't want to endure another year of dead money in INTC and am searching for an exit strategy. I also don't really want to sell now if we can find support at $22-23, but any negative comments that confirm the comments in the JP Morgan downgrade will take the stock lower IMO, so selling at around $23-24 may be the best option. Opinions?
>> I expect this is going to be a blowout quarter
It seems BofA is already looking past the success of Q4 and focusing on problems in Q1. Very disappointing. My AMD puts are the only think working for me now, but I have also acquired additional INTC shares today @ 25.40
smoothh20...maybe drives AMD out of the direct market
But wouldn't it make sense that a change in the AMD business model (driven by the pressure that Intel is excerting) would provide additional pricing power that would increase the 'E' in the PE ratio? And if so, shouldn't that be viewed as a major inflection point that would drive growth for the next several years? Add to that the benefits that a new market might provide (i.e. UMPC, WiMax) and I think you have a compelling case for stock price appreciation, no?
maybe someone should tell that analyst that Intel has a 'supercalafragilisticexpealadoucious microchip system'
uh oh...AMD has an advanced microchip system?
after Stifel Nicolaus & Co. analyst Cody Acree said in a note to investors that there were encouraging signs of growth.
He said he recently learned that AMD is working with chip maker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. in test production of desktop processors that use an advanced microchip system.
He noted delays in production for other AMD chip lines but said he had confidence that AMD would improve performance and volumes.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071210/semiconductors_sector_snap.html?.v=2
Some of the defective chips were later turned into key rings by Intel....
Yep, I have one of those. Some time after the Pentium flaw debacle, I worked in a group that was created to try to avoid such a situation from re-occurring. The group's charter was to give away complete systems (with the newest Intel parts) to gamers and users in academia and business so that they could put the systems through their own rigorous testing before they were released as production parts to OEMs etc.. It was mostly a PR moved but boy did people all over the world 'sign up' in a hurry. Who wouldn't want a brand new Nehalem based system before anyone else?
I'm very happy I have held my my Jan 09 7.50 puts, which now have a good chance of actually being in the money next year. Now if only I'd held on to my APPL and VMW during that last down draft.
hilarious <eom>
OT: fair enough. BTW I won't let our political differences affect my enjoyment of your posts here. :->
OT...and this?
And speaking of which, Hector carries a lot of similarities with Mr. Executor in Chief....
No sorry, don't see that similarity at all. It is one thing to disagree with the politics of President Bush, but making this comparison just seems like a cheap shot to me.
OT: hmmmm...I would have to disagree with you there.
with the state of the country in the wake of George Bush
I am quite happy with the state of the country under the leadership of President Bush. Are there some problems in the country that haven't been addressed? Yes, but overall I am satisfied with this administration's policies of limited government intervention and strong military presence internationally.
Sarmad...that's not what I picked up from Abbey Joseph Cohen (perennial bull market cheerleader for GS). She was on CNBC yesterday presenting GS view for continued upside in the US stock market despite troubles in the credit markets etc.
but the timing... OUCH!
But haven't you seen Office Space?
"We've found that its better to do these things on a Friday, less chance of an incident"
Just replace "Friday" with "the Friday before Christmas"
AMD shares rise on analyst upgrade...lol
At the end of the 'upgrade' he says this:
However, Berenbaum warned that long-term investors should avoid the stock, and advised hedge funds to look at Intel (Charts, Fortune 500) or Nvidia Corp. (Charts) instead.
lol, reminds me of the old adage: with friends (upgrades) like this, who needs enemies (downgrades)?
http://money.cnn.com/2007/12/03/technology/bc.apfn.apfn.advancedmic.ap/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote
good point! you may be right <eom>
another naysayer has joined the fray:
Baird & Co. analyst Tristan Gerra sent a largely downbeat message in a note to investors.
Gerra also warned of mixed signals on chips used in notebook computers.
He said that while distributors report strong notebook sales, certain notebook component makers mentioned a recent weakness in orders. One component supplier Gerra spoke to said the drop was as high as 5 percent to 8 percent compared with the same quarter last year.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071130/semiconductors_sector_snap.html?.v=1
I thought this was interesting enough to bring over to this board. Any thoughts on the importance of this or is it insignificant?
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=24922290
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=24945666
re: AMD Aims Higher Price-Points with Forthcoming Phenom Chips
Wouldn't this indicate that Intel can also raise the prices of their desktop skus? And wouldn't this indicate an end to the so called 'price war'?
This seems like big news to me, no?
trash talking by Hector etal, I don't think there is any reconciliation possible.
Although whenever money is involved, almost anything is possible. As a shareholder I expect my CEO to maxmize shareholder value even at the expense of appearing to lose face. At the same time, if driving the final nails into the coffin is the way to that then I am for that as well.
Or is it a gesture to suggest to Intel, 'we have given up on market share and would like to start become profitable again, are you guys interested in playing a new game?'
I heard the same on CNBC...sounded like GS made a general 'hand wave' over the entire tech sector to reduce expectations for 2008, so while it's affecting all large cap tech today, I don't see it as anything significant.
Just a general tech sell off I think....it seems GS lowered expectations for most technology companies for 08 and that along with the dell disappointment last night has dell, intel, cisco, rim even apple down today. Nothing to worry about this time IMO.
D of U...today Cingular announced some new initiative to 'open up' their CDMA network to 3rd party applications. I don't have a link yet but was wondering if you heard this announcement and whether it has any ramifications for WiMax (and Intel in particular).
near term view of INTC....
After a few years of fighting the micro economic battle (i.e. industry fundamentals, INTC vs. AMD etc.) to move the price of INTC higher and finally starting to win that battle, it seems the game has changed on us. We are now fighting a macro economic battle to move the price higher. These total market sell offs have moved INTC down 10% or so and I'm having trouble seeing how further talk of recession, credit crisis, cost of oil, weak dollar etc. will not send the market down further (and INTC with it) in the next 3 months. So my question is this; can the strengthening fundamentals of Intel Corp. buck the macro trend that is taking the whole market down and allow INTC to remain in the $24-$26 into Q1/Q2 of next year? Or will the macro trends continue to punish INTC and take the stock another 10% lower into the $21-$23 range?
re: stock market jitters
The entire market is having jitters,which is a dangerous sign to me, and I think that we will be seeing a lot more market corrrections/drops in the coming year.
I see things just a little different here. I expect another leg down before EOY. This next leg down (next week maybe the week after), will be the near term capitulation that results in an oversold condition IMO. Any good news after that from individual companies will be rewarded with slight bounces off those new low levels but nothing exciting (INTC should participate in some small bounces off the new low).
The general market will remain flat at these new low levels until wall street 'invents a new story' for why retail investors should buy stocks. That story is currently impossible to make up without some imperical evidence of some kind to support it. So until we get something like oil becoming bearish, a new stance by the Fed or a surprise performance by the consumer (i.e. surprise retail spending), I am expecting a flat market (after the next leg down that is) for quite a while (6-9 months?).
In the interest of full disclosure, most all my gains over the past 12 months have already been taken out. I sold long positions at low limits during both the August meltdown and this one. On the plus side, I bought a bottle of Blantons last night and will be looking to it again tonight for inspiration.
Happy Thanksgiving to all on this board and to the INTC longs on this board in particular. After all it is truly a great country we live in.
Guys, Alexis Glick is as sharp as a tack, but even the smartest people can look stupid when fed bad information. When she was on CNBC for a breif while I was amazed by her experience and insights into stock market internals. I thought she was the heir apparent to Maria B. until foxnews stole her away.
uh...don't cheat yourself, that should be 14 times over! You see 5 doesn't go into 2....
actually really ROFLAO
smoothwater, CNBC has been talking about hafnium in several segments this morning. Bill Griffith (CNBC) even said that everyone would be talking about hafnium at tonight's cocktail parties. Somehow I doubt it.
Service Oriented Architecture - a trend in application development shops to expose an API to other applications so that calls can be made over http or soap to return results or make updates etc. An example would be an HR application that exposes a GetEmployeeDetails method over http to other departmental applications so they can pass in an employee id and get back employee details etc.
Wow! You didn't even stop off at 'the correction' phase let alone 'the capitulation' phase of a reversal and went right to a bear market. NASDAQ is down about 7% and S&P about 5% in the last 3 days not even a correction yet (10%).
you forgot VMWare down 10.5%. ouch!
Tried to buy some INTC Dec 30 calls at a bargain price with a limit order just below the current ask. Wouldn't you know the stock immediatly bounced off its lows and I got nothin. At the same time I tried to sell my AMD APR 9 puts at a price just above the bid and needless to say I still got em.
'hopelessly biased' is just not accurate IMO. I think most of us on this board are genuinely interested in hearing both the pros and cons of INVESTING in intc. But currently most of us are optimistic on the long position of this stock and aren't really hearing any strong arguments to disuade us. Other than macroeconomic factors, is there any reason that this stock will not reach $32 by Q2'08? I gladly invite any and all posts that convincingly argue that it won't.