I think one of the reasons a lot of folks have declared this a 'bear market' is the extended time it has taken (9 months) from the 10/11/07 top to the 7/15/08 bottom for this crisis and the 23-24% decline to play out.

1998 saw a similar 22% haircut due to the Russian and LTCM crisis but the bleeding was quick (3 months) and recovery even quicker.

Time will tell ... good weekend everyone.

P.S - Farooq, I'm on the camp that thinks we may still see new highs in 2009.

Bears eager to short

Looks like a lot of folks on the boards are way too eager to go short 'looking for a top' with the "assumption" that we are in bear market rally.

Nothing wrong cannabis

AIG DOW component down big ... Techs healthy with commodity monies going into tech.

ai, baby rally underway

couple days late to start ... let's see if it has legs to turn into one ugly monster :)

I've been on board since July 14/15!

Good call Blasher on inflation comments

2:35 pm : The Fed took a neutral tone in its latest directive, noting that there are both risks to inflation and growth. The Fed noted that although the economy grew in the second quarter, labor markets have "softened further" and financial markets remain under "considerable stress."

The statement was very similar to the June 25 release when the Fed also kept rates unchanged. One notable difference is in June the Fed said "upside risks to inflation and inflation expectations have increased," while the current statement says "upside risks to inflation are also of significant concern to the committee."

The FOMC believes that inflation will moderate later this year and in 2009

Yup flat weekly close for Nasdaq

7/25 was 2310.53

DELL blasting out of C/H

27-30 by 8/28 earnings?

EEM 3-1 split this morning

Got in at 128 last week and got a note from my broker this mornig ... first time seen an ETF split.

BIDU Launching A/H

+25 on earnings

Herd going nuts as oil plunges

$100 crude coming soon?

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=30780404

Too much bearishness around

means only one thing ... markets resolve UP :)

Wouldn't it surprise everyone if AAPL actually opened higher in the a.m.

Gap UP 10+ pts!!
Spin the earnings ... handidly beat estimates and always gives conservative guidance for next quarter. Jobs is just fine :)

Good point AJ

Focus more on business was because 85% of our revenues came from there and staying online/direct with the consumer can only take you so far. Especially in Asia where computer buying is a 'family experience' from a local dependable VAR.

Our consumer group driven by Ron Garriques (Ex-Motorola) is changing Dell's image from a 'cheap' brand to one that has Brand Lust ... yeah, we took that cue from Apple's sucess :)

B, Glad to hear about your +ve experience with Dell

We took our eyes off 'customer sat' and didn't enter the retail space few years ago and paid the price for it. I believe with Michael's return, the company is energized and focussed to get back on top and beat HP :)

GOOG filling that clown gap UP from last qtr with a gap down now :)

Ok, eyes on IBM and MSFT now ...

Neat AJ

Now, you could help more by being a Dell shareholder too :)

Thanks also for sharing all your work ... I have a learnt a lot from lurking around Ihub the last couple of years and as most folks here agree, you are one of the best chartists around here who is not afraid to predict and most importantly 'change course' as the 'market dynamics' change.

Thanks AJ ...

I work at Dell and it's been a painful 3 years seeing it fall from 40+ to 18 :(

Hoping the turnaround has legs to take this to $30 as the charts suggest :)

Capt, what if crude falls to the 80-100 range

in the next few weeks as per the bubble burst theory ... The herd will go nuts :)

AJ, DELL C/H targeting $30?

If it closes above previous high of $24.42 ...

GOOG will do the heavy lifting tomorrow

Dell, Intc turn today ... GOOG/MSFT tomorrow and AAPL next week.

Looks like it B

Consolidate to slight down tomorrow with ebay down ah but then it's a double whammy with MSFT & GOOG tomorrow nite for friday sparks :)

Went long monday/tuesday and holding for a while capt

Bear .. what bear? :)

Good call on Rally kickoff Poker

aj, implying month or year here or too early to tell?

Well, it's looking more and more like yesterday's lows were more than just a low for the day or the week.

Both MSFT & GOOG report thursday nite

Has that happened before? Doesn't MSFT usually report a week after GOOG.

The stage has been set for OPEX friday :)

Who let the Bulls out?

Oil breaking down below $135?

You need shorts to fuel 'covering' rallies up too :)

Today == Oct 28th 1997?

Gap down, Flush and COTH?

Investor Psyche

1. SPX 1300 (fallen from 1550) - World is ending, Financial Meltdown articles, SPX 1150 and 950 targets.

2. SPX 1420 (Up from 1300) - The Top is here ... great shorting opportunity.

3. SPX 1500 (Up from 1300) - Yippe Yippe Yay! All aboard ... SPX '1550 & beyond', 1650 targets

Hi Guys

Been real busy and out of trading the last few months - finally resurfaced and trying to catch up.

Looks like Poker has a new site going - cool.

Still Bear Market Rally or start of a 'new baby bull' - what's the concensus here?

Buy, I think what blackcloud was referring to is if we've see the top already i.e. first July high and then Oct high which fits within the 45-90 day higher high scenario.

Arjunah, are you suggesting that we could go potentially go up to the 1480 area and still make a yet another lower low into your anticipated 4.5 yr low in mid-feb?

That'll be the 4th low :)

Guess, SPX will have to make it

to 1480 by Jan 16th then for the 2003 comparison pattern to play out in full :)

That's 6 trading days counting yesterday.

Current v/s 2003 4.5 yr low

Someone else pointed out the similarities ... 3 test of the 775 -800 area lows then too (july '02, oct '02 & final in mar '03) - This time 3 tests of the 1375-1400 area (Aug '07, Nov '07 and Jan '08)

But here's another interesting fact ...

Look at first 6-8 days after each test then and now - SPX ROCKETED 100+ pts.

SPX 1480 by OE 1/18? ... Now that I've mentioned it, NOT! :)

Thanks buy_the _dips

Could you explain how the pattern measures up to 1540?

TIA

Good work Poker

We are way oversold though .... this could easily go up to 1450-60 range by next week.

I sure did PS

Let's see if the SPX closes below that on a monthly basis ... that will nail the coffin for the Bulls. Until then it's anybody's game.

We are at the bottom of the trading range (SPX 1400).

NM OEPM 4cast trend based

NM, some of your calls on a daily basis have been outstanding. However, it seems like the OEPM modelling picks up a trend and 'assumes' that it will continue for days. It's not able to pickup up changes in a whipsaw or trading range market.

A few consective up days and you have us going to DA MOON and a few down and we're into the ABYSS :)

I believe it works best when used for the next day based on today's price.

Weekly SPX close key here

1433 is the Weekly 78 SMA (Monthly 20 MA) ... close below that and Big Trouble for Bulls - let' see if they rally this into the close.

Good Call North

on the weak job report ... quite a bloodbath here!!