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I seem to remember that Tai Med is partially invested in by the Chinese government and is a Hong Kong registered company. Not sure if that means anything but wouldn't that make it difficult to partner or buy-out by a BP? I honestly don't know - i'm just thinking CYDY might be a much more available acquisition than Tai Med to BP.
I think you are negatively biased, of course there are risks but to just assume CYDY is too small so GILD is not interested? the value is in the product - anyone buying CYDY only wants a developed pro140, they could care less about the mgmt or any other assets of the company. as for your previous post - there are risks that not every patient will show 100% efficacy and one may die for some reason. but what drug in clinical trails does not have the same risks? pro 140 just needs to meet the criteria set by the FDA - nothing more. The FDA has clearly set a reasonable path for pro140 that is more easily achieved than what it has shown in its past trials.
Am i wrong i stating that investing in biotechs is risky? do you really think every detail of this treatment, approval process and company mgmt is going to be perfect with no risk? I do appreciate you questioning possible issues for our education but i think we all know that there is risk and if we (or you) can't accept it - don't invest in this.
I agree - the way things are aligning the risk in this is getting smaller. we are close!
When i say it would be shocking to not get it, i'm referring to the HIV positive community more than us investors. HIV positive individuals need pro140 badly.
Reading the purpose of BTD, it would be shocking if the FDA did not approve it for pro140.
correct me if i'm wrong - but i remember last year in a conf. call that Nader said orphan drug and breakthrough were not that important because they were already getting accelerated attention in their trials from the FDA. I would think the re-applying for these may have been encouraged by the FDA to bring attention to these programs for special treatment in clinical trials. It makes me think that approval on both is more of a sure thing.
what is the point of your post pears? we know that if the sky falls that would be bad.
I did not see the post - what are you referring to? if it is not for public consumption at this point i understand
This is interesting, do you think cytodyn is gearing up to distribute pro140 once BLA is done?
I just can't believe the perfect storm that is going on - GILD's earnings and stock price shows they are up against the ropes product wise and with tons of cash ready. 1-2 years ago i worried that BP may not care about cytodyn because they are making huge profits without worry, now that trend has changed. Glaxo is going to take a large amount of market share from GILD. If you were at GILD and looking at the situation and there is this small biotech with a product so far along the clinical trial stages that could reverse this trend immediately how can you not take advantage of it? Rarely can a publicly traded company have a solution so obvious. check out this article:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4045702-gilead-will-free-fall-spite-carl-icahn
I like your thinking, this is also just US market so it could be much more than that worldwide.
got it - thanks! i do realize that this is as basic as it gets and that i'm sure there will be far more details when that day arrives. (notice i said when, not if - i'm optimistic)
Am i wrong in calculating the buyout share price based on roughly 250 mil shares owned including warrants and options total? I thought that that would mean $4/share per billion buyout - does that make sense?
I have to believe that at some point a decision maker at GILD will realize that if the competition grabs pro140 before they do it will look very bad for everyone in the acquisitions department. CROI may not have much impact in the near term but it absolutely sets the "this is what we have, what have you got?" stage for the HIV industry.
Thanks for posting this, i have learned a lot from your posts. your knowledge of why the SP is what it is takes much of the stress out of trying to figure out why good news and progress is not represented in the SP. thanks for bridging the smart investing and the opportunity of pro140!
I would imagine cnbc gets thousands of requests for a mention of a publicly traded company on any of there shows. worth the effort, Thanks!
I think the best we could hope for is for Cramer to talk about GILD and bring up CYDY as an acquisition possibility. I doubt he would talk at any length about an OTC. would be nice to get a new crowd of optimistic investors!
writing in all caps and using exclamation points does not make your statements facts. you don't know who is buying or selling any more than anyone else. you can have an opinion but please don't portray your statements as fact.
I'm not sure about that - i think the opposite. Nader seems to be indicating a buyout is the goal. there is no plans for ramping up any internal infrastructure to support on-going operations beyond clinical trials. why would a BP want the mgmt? i would think they want the approved pro140 with no strings attached. just my opinion however.
I feel this management change is great news and might have been the plan for some time. Why have such a valuable member of the board not be in a position to directly steer the partnership/buyout process? this means Nader is more focused on the advancement of pro140's approval which he has moved at a fast pace. The uncertainty in Nader's ability to negotiate these deals has been solved in a formal way. I think this is the source of their confidence.
I agree with you, it could move things in the right direction and there is no reason to not take the opportunity. I just want to temper the expectation that this is a huge binary event, microbe was really pumped up in its significance beforehand and it turned out to be no significance.
I agree, conferences are just building blocks for moving in the right direction and keeping your name out there. not a catalyst but helps build value for the future.
well said bluehorseshoe. exactly what i was thinking!
the % BO in other BP deals is not relevant - we have no idea what the stock price was, how it got there or what the market potential that drove the buy out. I have only heard buy out estimates for pro 140 at 3 billion and up, 1.2 billion would be a steal. this is based on market size - nothing else.
I really think buy outs are based on market size and stage of development. % over a stock price is making a lot of assumptions about how the company pumps the stock or many other factors. cytodyn is a tiny 4-5 employee company - the stock price is not used to determine the selling price of pro 140.
last September there were a lot of investment articles about Gild raising cash for acquisitions.
http://www.thecountrycaller.com/34211-gilead-sciences-inc-gild-debt-offering-implies-that-a-deal-may-be-imminent/
I agree, middle of last year Nader and Mike were adamant about raising the stock price organically or reverse split to get uplisted and then all of a sudden that disappeared - Why? i think you are on to something and i think we all realized that the stock price and what market we are in does not matter in this type of buy out. I'm not sure why they are pursuing other indications for pro 140 if there is a rough deal already just based on HIV market. I think they have milestones that need to be met and this deal is done.
thanks for posting - that is great news.
I don't think comparing other BO's premium over share price really applies in this type of stock. CYDY is developing a product that could have a huge market - the value is the potential and how close that potential is to reality. What a tiny company does to help/hurt today's stock price has very little to do with setting a BO price.
I was the one to ask that question and The CFO and Nader did not really answer it. I did not think they would but i wanted to drive home the need to not just do capitol raises whenever the checking account is low. I wanted some indication that they can meet milestones and generate data that will move the SP higher before they raise capitol. I do like the idea that they feel a BO will happen sooner - but that is just a hope.
keep in mind, even if pro 140 is around $36k/year, insurance companies will still love it knowing they are not on the hook for the cost to treat all of the other side effects the HAART treatments cause.
I've heard in the past from Nader that the market size $ is based on the $36k/year estimate. I don't think they are going for selling pro140 for less than what the current cost is in existing care. I also don't think it matters because i don't see any plans by mgmt to ramp up the company to handle actual sales. they are going to be bought out or possible license out to others.
even though i like everyone want the trials to move as fast as possible - it is better to make sure we have the right patients so the data is the best possible with few questions on pro 140's benefit.
It has been discussed a few times - our hope is a buyout (i think i speak also for cytodyn mgmt). A buyout seems to be contingent on a larger data set to prove the market size for pro 140. that larger data set comes from the 300 mono patients. bringing pro 140 to market is many millions of cost and much longer time frame to start producing revenue.
this is what stood out to me:
"Iām delighted to share that we have received positive animal data in a colon cancer model and in a well established model for multiple sclerosis, an autoimmune disease." that's new and big news! I also feel that the pushed back milestone in the adjunct is a little dissapointing but i also feel the data from the 300 in the mono is more important.
i'm not in the medical or scientific field - just pulling from the internet. It looks to me like some patients were one tropism and became dual tropism or were dual and went to one tropism. remember - pro 140 is for the ccr5 strain only - which is a vast majority of cases. I'm not sure but i think "finding out why" is more about patient screening and tropism changes than pro 140 function. I think Nader is more interested in making sure the trial is testing pro 140 in the correct patients and not having incorrect patients skew the data in the trial.
this is what i found, and i do believe this was discussed before:
"According to the researchers, 10 of the 15 patients who were allowed to continue monotherapy with PRO 140 after the initial 12 weeks have now achieved virologic suppression for approximately 1.5 years. Maddon said four patients in the extension study experienced virologic failure ā three of whom were receiving concomitant medications for concurrent infections, which may have contributed to the treatment failures ā and one patient who had a viral load of 40 copies/mL at last visit withdrew from the study after relocating." - from the ASM microbe conference
and this:
"The phase IIb enrolled 40 patients, and to whittle this down to the most promising, with the goal of carrying these most promising candidates through to the above mentioned extension. Of the 40, 35 were classed as evaluable, and 20 of these completed the 12-week viral load suppression period and became eligible for the extension. Fifteen of these 20 carried forward into the extension. Four of these 15 were disqualified (for reasons not related to the drug) and one was a treatment failure, so the extension ended up with 10 evaluables. One of these just reached a full two years of viral load suppression (the holy grail in this sort of therapy) and the remaining patients are all approaching this period." from insider financial
I think you are reading Nader's statment wrong, non-responders are not 50% and the treatment path for those patients may not be pro 140 because pro 140 is specific toward the ccr5 strain. the HAART treatments have serious side effects that pro 140 does not have, patients who are on HAART would be very interested in being only on pro 140.
I really do not want this board to turn into "either you are with us or against us" type of cult. constructive comments positive or negative should be welcome if they encourage knowledge. BTW, it was you who was so negative leading up to the dilution sell-off. you may have been right but what was frustrating is that you credit "'lil birdies". not very helpful to us who prefer tangible information.