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CTGI:
Don't know if this has been discussed here before, but it may be worth a look:
http://www.investor.reuters.com/CompanyOverview.aspx?ticker=CTGI&target=%2fstocks%2fquickinfo%2f...
http://www.investor.reuters.com/CompanyFinancialHighlights.aspx?ticker=CTGI&target=%2fstocks%2ff...
Earnings are seasonal, and loaded into final three quarters. But year over year Q1 looks very good, and revenue growth is impressive for several years.
Steve
CGCP:
According to Reuters and NASCAQ websites this company has had losses for each of the past 4 quarters.
I have spent time looking into them this morning under the assumption that they qualified for mention on this board. Is there something subtle I am missing?
Steve
MSGI re VPHM:
But for the conversion shares, I think we would be well north of $10 already. And at this pace the conversion shares will not be holding us back much longer.
Steve
VPHM:
As anticipated, the company has filed another 8-K:
"Between June 1, 2005 and June 6, 2005, ViroPharma Incorporated received notices from holders of its 6% Convertible Senior Secured Notes due 2009 (the "Senior Convertible Notes") electing to voluntarily convert $11,800,000 principal amount of the Senior Convertible Notes into 4,720,000 shares of common stock at the conversion rate of one share of common stock for each $2.50 in principal amount of the Senior Convertible Notes. Following the conversions described above, approximately $49.4 million principal amount of the Senior Convertible Notes remained outstanding."
During the same 4 market day period, the stock was up about 35%. Pretty impressive.
I will not be surprised if it turns out that we chewed through another 1.5 million conversion shares today.
Steve
cliffvb re VPHM:
Nothing I have read suggests that there is anything seasonal about Vancocin, and I doubt that it is.
Steve
MSGI re VPHM:
I think this is the clearest indication you could have that Vancocin sales are just fine this quarter.
Waiting for another 8-K to see how much more conversion has taken place. With the volume in recent days, I am anticipating that a considerable number have been converted (and sold). We shall see.
Steve
VPHM:
Another insider purchase: 12,500 shares at $5.48.
http://phoenix.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=92320&p=irol-SECText&TEXT=aHR0cDovL2NjYm4uMT...
Steve
USEG:
To the best of my knowledge, USEG has never had earnings.
There is an excellent board on iHub, Uranium Exploration, for those interested. Incidentally, the spot price for uranium has gone through the roof in 2005. Articles like the one Bobwins recently shared are appearing almost daily in one place or another. For example:
http://www.kitcometals.com/commentaries/appel/jun032005.html
http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=92853
Spot prices are announced on a weekly basis:
http://uxc.com/
Steve
cliffvb, others re VPHM:
You may have seen the following post on Yahoo VPHM message board from poster who follows the stock closely:
"Keep in mind, VPHM's guidance assumed no growth in prescriptions in 2005. It included only the price increases. Prescription growth is increasing at an accelerating pace. I think after factoring in the growth in sales due to increased prescription growth less the incremental cost of goods sold, the net incremental revenues that management did not factor in will at least equal the non operating net expenses that managemnet could not quantify due to the unknowns regarding conversion of the Senior Notes. As a result, if you do the simple math, you arrive at fully diluted EPS of $.95 a share. The foregoing assumes prescription growth will continue to increase through the remainder of the year and cover, but not exceed the net non operating expenses. If it exceeds non operating expenses and management's guidance on total operating expenses is still valid (adjusted for increased cost of goods sold), fully diluted EPS may be as much as $1.15 for 2005."
Thus, it appears that price increase at end of March is in the most recent company projections.
Steve
roguedolphin re "one stop":
I like Reuters.
http://today.reuters.com/news/default.aspx
Steve
MSGI re IIJI:
I saw this stock mentioned on Yahoo board for VPHM, and am still trying to make sense of the numbers. I gather from your post that you are staying away for now?
Thanks.
Steve
researcher59 re ETEC:
Bought some in late March, early April. Average price per share $1.45. Wondering what to do if stock gets to $2.00 before earnings are announced, and wondering when that might be.
Thanks.
Steve
hweb2 re ETEC:
Quietly moving toward $1.70. I have assumed that earnings will be released at month end. Do you think sooner?
Thanks.
Steve
MSGI re PDGE:
You are probably right. What I'm hoping of course is the only difference between PDGE and other stocks that have taken off recently is that earnings are a month later due to unusual fiscal year.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=3m&s=ERS&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=pdge.ob
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=VPHM&t=3m&l=off&z=m&q=l&c=pdge.ob
In any event, as they say on the poker shows, I am "pot committed."
Steve
Knowledge re ACRG:
Thanks much.
Steve
PDGE and insurance:
From the insurance information institute:
http://www.iii.org/media/hottopics/insurance/mold2/
Steve
VPHM:
Interesting comment on SI board for VPHM re Pleconaril:
"It was already known that oral plec was barely getting to concentrations where inhibition of 'hormonal birth control' was a problem. It is therefore not much of a surprise that the pilot studies showed that intranasal delivery didn't result in systemic levels which will be problematic."
Steve
ACRG:
Interesting post on Raging Bull ACRG board, suggesting the company might be a potential acquisition candidate.
Would be interested in any reactions from those here more familiar with the company/industry.
TIA
Steve
MSGI and mandjb re PDGE:
My take on mold remediation is different. I think it is going to be a huge industry.
My guess is that in areas of the country affected by the problem, you will soon have a "mold inspection" -- mandated by law and/or demanded by the market -- whenever a piece of real estate is sold. This issue will be dealt with like any other environmental/remediation issue (i.e., soil contamination, termites) between the parties to the buy/sell transaction -- whether or not insurance is available to participate.
Commercial, industrial and multi-unit residential property owners face a very real exposure now, and, if remediation is needed, it must be undertaken, again regardless of insurance coverage. If known mold problems are ignored, the plaintiffs' side of the dispute will be represented by more than Len's ambulance chasers. And the plaintiffs' bar will not care whether the property owners have insurance or not.
The area is currently unregulated in most states. If you think the plaintiffs' bar has been hard on this issue, wait until the legislatures get ahold of it. My guess is that an inspection and/or a disclosure will be mandated.
Insurance will emerge at all levels -- residential, commercial, whatever -- to deal with this, just as it has in California for earthquakes. It may be expensive, but someone will sell it. And those with an exposure to third parties would be wise to buy it.
My biggest concern is competition. Whatever PDGE has to offer, is there any reason why someone bigger can't offer the same thing? That's why I have been interested in PDGE's acquisition strategy, and disappointed that it seems to be behind schedule. I also wonder if PDGE might be an attractive acquisition candidate itself.
Frankly, I am expecting the numbers for Q1 to hold up. If IPII is any indication, lots of revenues from the 2004 Florida hurricanes were received/booked in early 2005. Or, maybe this is just wishful thinking, since every share I've purchased is currently under water (moldy).
All JMHO and FWIW.
Steve
johnlw re IUC:
Thanks much. Shows how little I know about investing in Canadian companies.
Will read with great interest.
Steve
IUC.TO:
I have been to IUC website and printed out the "IUC Information Summary" from March, 2004. Is there anywhere I can go to get more recent and/or additional financial information on the company.
TIA
Steve
New to this board. Own shares in BHP and decided it was time I learned something about uranium and the potential investment opportunities surrounding it. Very happy to have found this board, and the high level of discussion it contains. Especially appreciate posts 952-954 by trosh1, the compilation of posters' collective thoughts.
Steve
OT: Bobwins re uranium:
I have added the Uranium Exploration board here to my favorites list. Will be sifting through posts from the last 2 or 3 months to see what posters are talking about.
Whatever resistance is encountered in the U. S., in emerging economies of Asia nuclear power seems to me to be inevitable. That is the message I took from the article you shared with this board.
I agree that BHP is a play on all minerals. But price paid for WMC is clear indication of where they think things are headed. I won't be surprised to see other "small" companies that have uranium assets swallowed up by the big boys. Now I just have to find out more about who the "small" players are.
Thanks again.
Steve
OT: Bobwins re uranium prices:
Article on uranium prices much appreciated.
I own shares of BHP which, as you probably know, is on the verge of closing its deal for WMC. Link below is to a "report" from WMC website, "Developing the World's Biggest Uranium Resource." Obviously self-promotional, but contains some interesting information.
http://www.wmc.com/pubpres/index.htm
Have you invested in Uranium Participation Fund? How about CCJ? Is there a small cap play available?
Thanks.
Steve
VPHM:
From Yahoo board, a conservative view of the future from SG Cowan:
"From Briefing 6/3
09:14 VPHM ViroPharma initiated at SG Cowen (5.08 )
SG Gowen initiates coverage of VPHM, saying the co's recent acquisition of oral Vancocin from Eli Lilly has quietly launched the co into profitability. They view the acquisition as highly strategic and well timed, as aggressive price increases and scrip trends suggest Vancocin rev will grow by at least 45% in 2005. Beyond 2005, firm anticipates continued trends will support 15% top-line and 20% bottom-line growth. Applying a multiple of x on their fully taxed, 2006 diluted EPS est of $0.50, or a 10x multiple on their fully taxed 2008 diluted EPS est of $0.80, suggests 70-80%+ upside relative to the mkt over the next 12 months."
VPHM premarket:
Premarket activity encouraging:
http://quotes.nasdaq.com/quote.dll?mode=frameset&kind=&symbol=VPHM&symbol=CNXT&symbo...
Steve
kipp440 re VPHM:
I have listened to 3 of the 4 recent conferences. The FBR presentation yesterday, with slide show, is well worth the time. Viropharma has an excellent website, and you can access presentations through the website.
1. Vancocin: There is one product, Vancocin, that is being marketed. The CEO refers to "strong net sales" and describes prior guidance(i.e., May 3 raised guidance!) as "conservative." He states that, while they thought deal with Eli Lilly was a good one, they now know it is an "excellent one" -- an understatement in my book. My impression -- only an impression -- is that the company will be raising guidance again, possibly before Q2 earnings are announced in August. Insiders are buying the heck out of this stock, and they are privy to information on a monthly basis that gives them a good sense of net sales for Q2; my assumption is that if May 3 guidance is too conservative, they will want to get info out sooner rather than later. However, in these presentations they have not released any sales numbers beyond Q1 numbers that were the subject of Q1 PR.
2. Pipeline: I know next to nothing about the science. With that caveat, they have two apparently promising drugs in development. For both drugs, they are in joint venture arrangements with major pharmas. The company seems particularly excited about HCV-796, for hepatitis C infected patients. But it is in phase 1, and I assume that the trip from here to market, even if future trials go well, will be a long one.
3. Pleconaril: Possible cure for the common cold. Notwithstanding what is said in Newsweek article, VPHM has sold all ownership and development rights to Schering Plough. VPHM does have a contractual right to certain progress payments on the achievement, if ever, of certain development milestones, and to "high single digit" royalties if/when the product goes to market. In the fall Schering Plough is supposed to announce its intentions regarding Pleconaril. Could be interesting . . .
Impressions from presentations, FWIW:
* This management team is very good. They seem capable of taking advantage of the company's good fortune resulting from Vancocin deal.
* Company is focused on shareholder value. After all, many insiders have reached into their own pockets to buy shares on the open market.
Hope this helps.
Steve
MSGI re VPHM:
I'm happy with the zip code I'm in, but you're right, this story could get big enough to warrant mention on that board. The Newsweek article is the kind of thing that sets off the biotech momo crowd; it doesn't matter that the article is inaccurate. If you drop in at the Yahoo board, you can get a sneak preview of the irrational exuberance likely to build around this stock.
If the stock keeps going up like this, I have no idea where to sell. I should have more such problems.
I can't get over the fact that we are talking about this company on a value investing board! Unreal.
Steve
wadegarret re VPHM:
According to yesterday's presentation at Friedman Billings Ramsey growth conference:
* Total current principal balance of debt: $159.9 million, consisting of $98.9 million in 2007 subordinated convertibles, $61.0 million in 2009 senior convertibles.
* Total current cash or cash equivalents: $56.6 million.
Regarding paydown this quarter of $29 million in 2007 subordinated convertibles, according to PR $11.8 million was funded through cash generated when initial investors in the 2009 senior convertibles exercised their option in April 2005 to purchase additional senior convertibles (i.e., $11.8 million is in the $61 million noted for 2009 senior convertibles). The balance was funded through cash flow generated by Vancocin sales.
Regarding cash position generally:
* On March 10, company guidance indicated that company expected to be "at least cash flow neutral" in 2005.
* On May 3, company guidance indicated that company expected to be "cash flow positive in 2005 from operating activities."
* In yesterday's presentation, I understood CEO to say that company is cash flow positive now.
FWIW, the company has repeatedly stated that it is looking at financing alternatives going forward that will not be dilutive to shareholders.
Hope this is helpful/responsive.
Steve
niles_crane3, VPHM and Newsweek:
Link to (somewhat inaccurate) Newsweek article:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8017666/site/newsweek/
Bobwins, JATO now?
Steve
cliffvb re VPHM:
There is a helluva lot of conversion stock to chew through, so you may yet have a chance to buy cheaper. But if we can hold above $5, one distinct possibility is that we will never see the $4s again.
Incidentally, I tried to find out if $10.1 million in Vancocin sales for April was to wholesalers or retail. Can't determine, but best guess is that IMS Health measures prescriptions (i.e., retail).
So, the number may not be as good as it seemed to me at first look.
Steve
Bobwins re VPHM:
Beginning to look like JATO, do you think?
Steve
VPHM:
Another insider buy, 10,000 shares at $4.10.
Steve
VPHM:
Another 8-K filed after the close today. Combining the 8-Ks from 5/31 and 6/1, during the period May 24 through June 1 a total of $6,475,000 in debt converted into 2,590,000 shares of common stock.
I also note that VPHM has been on the Regulation SHO Threshold Security List ("naked short selling list") for 13 consecutive trading days and tomorrow is subject to mandatory close out requirements.
All things considered the stock has held up pretty well during the past couple of weeks.
Another presentation tomorrow morning -- Friedman, Billings, Ramsey Growth Investor Conference.
Steve
MSGI re VPHM:
I think the sales number is absolutely terrific.
With regard to the convertibles, I assume that anyone electing to convert now must be interested in selling now -- or wants to be positioned so as to be able to sell very promptly. The conversions described in today's 8-K (i.e., the conversions occurring on May 24-26) undoubtedly account for a lot of the selling that took place last week, and may account for some of the selling today. But I don't think any of the selling today was a market reaction to the 8-K. I get SEC alerts by email direct from the company, and news of the 8-K filing was emailed to me after the close.
Incidentally, the company can force a conversion of up to 25% in any calendar quarter under certain conditions. From the latest 10-Q:
"Subject to certain limitations, the senior convertible notes are convertible into shares of common stock at the option of the holder at any time prior to maturity at a conversion rate of $2.50 per share, subject to adjustment upon certain events. The Company may elect to automatically convert in any calendar quarter up to twenty-five percent of the principal amount of the senior convertible notes into shares of its common stock if the daily volume weighted average price of the Company’s stock exceeds $3.75 per share, subject to adjustment upon certain events, for 20 trading days during any 30 trading day period, ending within 5 days of the notice of automatic conversion. If the investors voluntarily convert the senior convertible notes or if the Company effects an auto-conversion of the senior convertible notes prior to October 18, 2007, then the Company will make an additional payment on the principal amount converted equal to three full years of interest, less any interest actually paid or provided for prior to the conversion date. In the case of a voluntary conversion by the investors, the Company must make this payment in cash. If the Company effects an auto-conversion, the Company may, at its option and if certain conditions are satisfied, make the additional payment with shares of its common stock. . . ."
My guess (and sincere hope) is that the company will exercise this right of automatic conversion to the fullest extent permitted, and that about 20 trading days or so from today the option to auto-convert 25% in Q2 will be available. My assumption is that, if/whenever the company auto-converts, it will pay the make-whole interest payment with stock.
The 8-K today is not news, except insofar as it explains who some of the sellers probably were last week and today. The earnings we have been discussing are fully diluted. Frankly, I for one would like to see as much of this overhang converted as soon as possible. Once the debt is converted, the former noteholders, now common shareholders, will face the same difficult sell decision that I think everyone is going to have in this stock, and I don't care what they decide to do. I just want to be rid of those (i.e., the current noteholders) that are free to speculate on the stock, assured of a guaranteed rate of return. Right now they are a very real deterrent to those who would purchase the stock, a deterrent that cannot be quantified. If conversion creates selling pressure, so be it. I think the fundamentals are going to be very powerful -- can absorb the converted shares -- and I am not looking to exit this stock any time soon.
All IMHO and FWIW.
Steve
cliffvb re VPHM:
On May 3 the company raised guidance, projecting net sales of $74-$79 million for all of 2005. Sales in Q1 were $21.1 million, and my assumption -- perhaps incorrect -- is that the $10.1 million for April reported in IMS Health (i.e., per briefing.com and Piper Jaffray) brings the total to $31.2 for the first 4 months of 2005. If so, net sales for 2005 should top $100 million easy, as April sales have nothing to do with filling the pipeline, and there is nothing seasonal about this disease.
FWIW, I will not be surprised if the company raises guidance again before Q2 earnings are announced.
Steve
VPHM:
Reported on Yahoo message board:
"From Briefing.com 5/31
Piper Jaffray notes that IMS Health shows Vancocin sales for April were a strong $10.1 mil, the strongest month recorded for Vancocin, and therefore the firm raises their target for ViroPharma to $7 from $5."
This sales number is extremely good news IMHO. It would not surprise me if the company raises guidance again soon.
Steve
OT Len re Yahoo Finance Disaster:
I have never used the Yahoo "highlights" link, but if I understand what used to be there, you can get 4-year revenue and earnings info in summary format at Reuters website, at "Financial Highlights" link. In larger stocks the same link will also show 2005 and 2006 analysts projections for both numbers. There is a time lag -- perhaps a week or two -- between a given company's PR and the reflection of new info at the Reuter's summary.
For NASDAQ stocks, revenue and earnings info is available on NASDAQ websight under "Revenue/EPS Summary." I have the impression that info at NASDAQ is more timely.
Hope this is helpful.
Steve
OT -- Bobwins re JATO
Ah . . . Boeing B-47.
I am indeed a baby boomer, but very young in investor years.
A good acronym for the investor world. Thanks.
Steve
Bobwins re VPHM:
Letting my (abundant) ignorance show yet again: "JATO" -- wuzzat?
Thanks.
Steve