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Angelo- Yes for years I drank the IPCI cool aid. But now I realize they are doing a very poor job. Only two doses of Focalin gained approval- that is short sighted in my opinion. Pretty soon the 10 years will be up and they will have only two doses approved... And at that time a two dose approval is worth pretty much nothing. If the Odidi's were planning for the future, they would have done something to get the other doses of Focalin XR approved. But once again they chose to sit back and watch and do nothing.
And no I am not shorting the stock. You are right it was my mistake investing in IPCI. But the Odidi's need to be held accountable for their actions but even more so for their inactions...
Angelo- The one thing I know is the only Focalin doses that IPCI received approval on were 15 and 30 mg. The other doses that IPCI submitted had tentative approval but that approval was lifted due to new requirements. IPCI or PAR has never done anything to get those IPCI doses approved. All the other doses that received approval are under the PAR ANDA. The agreement allows IPCI a share in profits for doses under both PAR and IPCI ANDA. I believe the agreement is for 10 years. So what happens after 10 years? My guess is no more profit sharing for IPCI and they can do whatever they want with their ANDA approvals. But they probably will only have two doses approved...
And a few more of the odidis failings - inability to partner pipeline, inability to license technology and patents and lastly they are working with no one to apply their ip to other peoples products.
And a few more of the odidis failings - inability to partner pipeline, inability to license technology and patents and lastly they are working with no one to apply their ip to other peoples products.
Angelo and trend- the reason odidis ignore the price is they have no clue and are in over their heads. Prior to ipci neither one had experience managing a company other than a small scientist consulting firm. Over the years at ipci they have a strong history of poor strategic decisions, mismanagement and inability to work with fda effectively. Take a look at the progress since first focalin approval. Pretty much nothing... Now do you see my point?
Tilator- It is around. Not sure where to find it though. Parts of it were pasted on IHUB way back when.
Tilator- Because I have seen the PAR contract posted online. It shows just about everything except percentages. It had milestone payments, higher percentages for exclusivity, but I never saw anything about payment percentages being higher over time. Go out and find the contract and look for yourself.
Tilator- Percentage on PAR deal is likely not going up. With all doses on market though, IPCI should get $4-5M in revenue on Focalin XR for FY 2018. What is so sad is analysts were calling for ridiculously high numbers on Seroquel XR. I said they were way too high. I said $3M per quarter. Now it looks like my estimate was way too high as well...
Tilator- What I heard is PAR deal paid a lot upfront, thus profit share is low. The MNK deal was less upfront but higher percentage of profits. The problem I see with the MNK deal is that MNK has not established a significant market presence- poor sales numbers... The problem I see with ANDAs in general is too much competition and thus eroding generics prices.
Tilator- So who is responsible for these bad deals?
wimike- How about ANDA bonuses are not paid out until two items are met:
1. Company is profitable.
2. Relevant ANDA is commercialized and on the market being sold.
Tilator- You won't find anyplace that says that publicly. But trust me... Years ago there was a lot of talk about generics bringing in lots of money. This next quarter you will understand what I am saying. Seroquel revenues are going to disappoint very, very badly. I hope I am wrong but in my opinion IPCI will be lucky to hit $1.5M in total revenue for this next quarter. Go back and look what analysts were calling for earlier this year. Many, many multiples of $1.5M. Last quarter Seroquel revenue was almost non existent.
Over the years I have heard:
1. Focalin XR would bring them to CFP status. Well it never did...
2. Seroquel XR would make them profitable in 2017. Not going to happen...
3. we are waiting for approvals to partner as we can negotiate better deals then. Uh, how about those great deals they negotiated on Gluco and Keppra.
Oh... Have you heard anything from the VP of Commercial Operations? I am guessing not... Must be out banging on doors working on all those commercial deals. NOT!
Samsa- And they never ever consider partnering with someone and licensing out the technology. The patents will be expired before Odidi finally figures that out.
Fabius- I think Odidi is arrogant to the fact that he has no concept on how to run the company. He is delusional... For some reason he thinks his patents and his pipeline will be worth something someday. Unfortunately he has no clue on how to determine what products there is a market for and what products there is not a market for. He now admits the ANDA pipleline was the wring direction as the market for generics changed. However he did not adapt quickly enough to the change in markets. Now he says the company is focusing on NDAs. Namely Rexista and Regabatin. We all know that Regabatin is on the shelf and collecting dust. How can Odidi not see he is failing in the NDA realm as well. Take a look at this interview from February 2017:
https://www.midasletter.com/2017/02/intellipharmaceutics-ceo-dr-issa-odidi-preventing-overdose-death-oxycodone-fentanyl/
Odidi toots his own horn on three things:
1. Rexista
2. All the applications for PODRAS. Here is an exact quote And then there are several combination products that are coming for opiates, these are based on our PODRAS technology, the abuse deterrent technology and the overdose technology. And then we are looking at several other once-a-day products with regards to hydromorphone,oxymorphone and hydrocodone. And like I said earlier, there are several more we haven’t made public, and therefore I won’t be able to talk about them.
3. Regabatin
But since this interview, we have heard absolutely nothing on items 2 and 3. Odidi is a man of A LOT OF TALK BUT VERY LITTLE ACTION.
Fabius- that is the message that needs to be delivered. Odid has not kept his promises and delivered. His strategic vision was poor and he can not be trusted to be the future vision of the company.
blue- contingency plan? I am sure they haven't even realized what you just posted let alone a contingency plan!
Fabius- IPCI has a proven track record... A proven track record of not delivering... Sad but true!
Doog- Right... The shorts are in control because IPCI does not deliver. If IPCI starts to deliver it will change, but until then... Shorts will continue to win.
fmgrana- The big problem with IPCI is they have no idea on how to commercialize and monetize their technology. I have no idea what the VP of Commercial Operations does at IPCI. You are right, he should be exploring emerging markets like Amazon, etc. But sadly I think this VP does absolutely nothing to try and market products/IP/design services, etc. THINK ABOUT IT. ONE COMMERCIAL DEAL WITH MNK SINCE PAR DEAL... Makes you wonder...
Doog- I am sure you remember Dr. Odidi's interview where he mentioned all the applications... OK, yes we get it... But what is Dr. Odidi doing to try to license PODRAS/ADF technologies to other companies? Or work with these companies to apply this technology to their product? Sadly I think he is all talk and no action in this regard.
Impact- Looks real good so far. I have one more:
1. In an interview earlier this year, Dr. Odidi talked about all the other drugs PODRAS and the ADF technology can be applied to. Has any progress been made with these applications or were they just talk? Are there ongoing negotiations with other pharma companies to apply the PODRAS/ADF to other drugs?
Impact- Certainly naked shorting is a possibility. But it also might be a shareholder that owns quite a few shares that shorts against their position. I suspect that someone(or a group that owns a few hundred thousand shares) is constantly shorting and covering against their position. I believe these same people have been doing this for years...
Trend- That is indeed an interesting theory. The discovery of the lawsuit will have access to all trading records... So stay tuned!
TREND- My understanding is there won't be any further updates until next year. I was told that IPCI got earliest court date possible. So everything is moving as fast as it can- albeit very slow- but as fast as possible.
Fred and others- Do you have an estimate for revenue seen by IPCI for Focalin XR for 2018? My guess would be $1-1.25M per quarter. Anyone think it could be higher?
Fabius- Ipci good news it goes down. Ipci bad news it goes down even more Actually I think we are about to switch directions. It probably will show support between 80-85 and that will be a triple bottom.
Wimike - I think we also need to let them know that the odidis have been the strategic vision. Their market analysis and Anda pipeline has failed. Why should the company trust them with making strategic plans for the future? They failed and did not respond adequately when the market made it clear the andas were not the answer. Why should they continue to be the vision for the future? They love to go out and get their patents on shareholders dime but never do anything to monetize them. They have failed and it is time for them to step down.
Impact - I will admit I was not sure you would follow through. But you did... Thank you and I will get you my questions by Thursday.
Tilator- Why don't you call and ask to speak to Akempyon directly. Introduce yourself and then give him your proposal verbally. Then see what he says... I would like to hear reasons why they are or why they are not interested. If you are not willing to call and speak to him, I am guessing you are not serious with your proposal.
wimike- I urge you to let them know. I have been and been telling them other shareholders feel the same. So if no one but me tells them this, they might think they are only hearing it from a few. I think everyone should make a point to hold them accountable often.
Agreed wimike. Please let them know it too.
doog- I am hoping you and everyone else is letting IPCI know that the lack of progress and updates is unacceptable. I have been and hope everyone that has not will join in this effort.
tilator- The remaining ANDAs will be approved. It has been a back and forth with the FDA and that is why it has taken this long. We will see some approved soon- my guess only.
Fred - I am pretty sure the previous numbers stating $500k per week are way off... Your latest numbers are much closer to reality and may still be high...
How does VP of Commercial Operations keep his job at IPCI. One deal since PAR... Boy talk about dead weight. All I can think of is these two things:
1. VP Commercial Operations is just that terrible
2. Odidi blocks every deal this guy comes up with. If this is the case it kinda proves the theory that Odidi is a blatant micro manager of the whole company...
Fabius- I think you got something that is pretty close to accurate with prescription numbers... I think Astra Zeneca does have both a generic(possibly authorized generic or something like that) as well as a branded product. I think the vast majority of what they are probably selling is the branded product. But that is just a guess on my part.
Fred- Those numbers are a lot different than those posted last week. I know there was problem with the past numbers. But what is the difference in how you arrived at the ones this week?
Angelo- Looks like EGLT is close to filing an NDA. Probably next year some time. My guess is shortly after they do, they will be sued by Purdue as well.
Agreed Samsa
Fabius- Thank you for posting those numbers. The one question I have is why is Astra Zeneca so low? Is it because they are categorized under a branded product and branded Seroquel XR is filtered out od that list? I would expect they still have a very good market share with the branded product.
All that being said, I think everyone should prepare for very poor revenue numbers this Q. It is very hard for me to estimate Seroquel numbers but I think they will be under $0.5M in revenue for IPCI. I think Focalin will be about $1M. So I am estimating current Q to come in between $1-1.5M total revenue for IPCI.
And yes, I think this current unearthing that the Bloomberg numbers talked about on here are way to high explains why last Q was so disappointing.