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Oh...it's Fri so I guess I should add that unless u r lookin for a quick scalp between now & the US close....keep your ammo at bay til late Sunday night at the earliest.
& if ya can keep yourself away, dont think about any new positions til the London open on Mon AM.
Happy Wknd all...Cheers!!
Well guess it depends on your def of steep? :0
On the 15 min side by side w/gold.....the Aussie sure looks like it's been more volitile so it's hard to say. I think it is safe however to say that it wont (at least shouldn't fundi-wise & or T/A wise....but then again as we've seen....fundi's mean squat at times) be taking quite the dramatic & fast dive that it recently did....hard to see that occuring all over again from these levels. & after Ben's words a lil earlier today ("inflation remains uncertain"...no, really? duhhhh).....me thinks the grenback may still falter some as some of you have said here recently....I've been in agreement w/that call for sometime now....& I must admit the recent dollar stength (since its' run in July) has surprised me.
It's just unreal to me that w/news like Fannie & Freddie out there that folks (the media mostly) are sayin that when (not if imo) the US finally decides to bail'em both out that mrkt will see this as bullish news & march on....& is most likely the main catalyst as to why we're seeing some strength here in the US across the board. Makes no sense to me....ITZA BAILOUT PEOPLE!!! This means things are NOT good out there. It's like they all think that this bailout is gonna be the answer to all our problems...sure, just like that bogus lil stimulus package was that bush shoved down our throats.....wadda crock that was eh.....& at least speaking for the folks on this board here....we all knew it was a joke when it was being discussed as an option. Bottom line, the stimulus pacakage as well as any Freddie & Fannie bailout is nothing more than a bandaid on a wound that needs several stitches...maybe even some minor surgery to repair some ligaments....lol & the only thing that will cure this is time....time for the housing mrkt to get healthy, or find it's bottom....which it just may have (here's hopin), time for employment to pick up a bit (& Nettles you know what bogus #'s those are...we are in agreement there as well) & somethnig that I think will really help over the long haul...the tax cuts need to be rolled over....one of the few things I find myself in agreement with as far as GOP policy goes. If Obama gets in & he allows the tax cuts to expire & all the while housing & emplyment have not picked up considerably...lookout below.
WOW.....guess I over answered your Aussie ? there....lol
So back on that Aussie note....I see the Aussie econ fundimentally much stronger than the US (main reason being is that they did not get themselves all that deep into the subprime mess) for both the short & long term...the Aussie should reach old highs once again but it seems that the greenback is gonna wanna stabilize a lil as it has been doing before the ugly reality of it all begins to set in once again here stateside.
Kinda like the stimulus package...once we're post Freedie & Fannie bailout & there's no other supporting news on the horizon...the greenback will begin to falter...& quite possibly sooner rather than later as the currency mrkt is typically more forward reacting than the equities....stuff tends to get baked in much sooner on the currency side. So my gut call is still that the greenback will be leaning more to the bearish side as it continues to make a new base in this territory....baring any other geopolitical events that could easily throw all this out the window...lol
But in short...I'm lovin the Aussie down here....should be good for a long if u r discriminating w/those those entries.
Still a tough call tho....ystrdy I went long @ 8747...& look at me now....underwater by a lil over 100 pips....OUCH!!
Thinkin of addin on to it down here....yes, I'm glutent for punishment....so pls....take my words w/the smallest of grains...as per usual ;)~
Good AM!!
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
Well my basic t/a says it's due for an uptrend...then again I suppose that all hinges upon what Helocopter Ben has ta say....perhaps it's ranging here cuz of this?
Other than that...the only other factors to consider are significant Aus & or US #'s to come out between now & then?
Other than those factors....simple T/A is a screamin buy....then again I was the one sayin that 3 weeks ago....lol
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
Ask & ye shall receive ;)~
too funny!!
Yeah....think that musta've been the longest stretch of inactivity for me....I should begin ta pick it up a bit over the next week or so.....gotta slowly get myself back up ta speed here & in a week or so I may like I have a slightly better grasp on the ebb 'n flow of it all.
Cheers!!
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
Indeed...it aint easy bein green....
sorry...couldn't resist....but u sure nailed it....exiting out of the losers is key along w/stirct money mngmt principals...no doubt.
Let the winners run & losers go....easier said than done....& if ya can find a decent brokerage that offers trailing stops....that might not be such a bad move either....that way you'll be able to hold on to the large winners for sometimes several days if you nailed the entry.
Lotz ta learn that's for sure..in fact, like most everything else....u should always be in learning mode....as the mrkts change (& in 4x they are always changing) you will need adjust accordingly. & the really tough thnig I've found is that many times, when things change, there seems to be no real rhyme or reason to it...at least at the onset.
OK...gotta run....happy ta see the board picking up here the last week or so....hope it continues.
Cheers!!
& here I thought you said a week or so ago that you don't play the Aussie....maybe it was someone else....but I coulda sworn it was you.
But if ya did decide ta jump in on da Aussie & get your feet wet...nice ta have ya along for da ride.
I see u r finding out how tircky it can be....which is 1 of the reasons why I've been on the sidelines the last week +.....all the usual trading correlations were thrown out the window a few weeks ago as far as I am concerned & quite frankly I haven't had the time to try & figure it all out....so I've taken a lil break of sorts. + it's been such a busy summer, especially the last few weeks for me that it's been next to impossible to even keep up w/the broader mrkts...let alone 4x & all the other #'s that effect all the currencies.
Another week or so after school starts back up for da lil 1's & I'll start to slowly climb back in I suppose.
In the meantime, w/re to the Aussie....if u do wanna continue playin around w/it....the best advice I can give is to be very patient & only hold out for what looks to be killer entries....be very discriminating on that chart & try to wait it out until an opp comes up that ya jus can't pass up....in this mrkt, you really gotta play it as safe as possible.
I'll try & check back in a lil later on closer to the US close.
Hope all's been well & a welcome to all the Newbie's that have joined us over the last week +....I think u will all find that 4x is an awesome way to trade....especially if ya know a lil T/A....& as compared to equities....as far as I'm concerned, there is no comparison....once I found 4x...there was no going back to equities....don't even miss it one eye oda...in fact, I think I still despise'em. ;)~
Cheers!!
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
& you will soon find, if not already....that you will always be in learning mode...assuming of course you always wanna work on improving your 4x skills.
Always a work in progress.....unless u r a bot...lol
I hear ya.....certainly warrants a lil added caution however....I just don't see (fundamentally speaking) the greenback as being fully out of the woods yet.....thinken we're still in sucker rally territory here & could very well be gettin real close to the top now.
Then again....I'm the one who thought the Aussie couldn't go much lower...2 weeks ago....lol
Off to Dog Day (well, really night...but that's what they are callin it....prolly cuz Dog Days best 'splains the A's season to date...lol) at the ballgame....yes, dogs are invited tonight so I'm taken our 2 yr old cockapoo & the the 6 yr old...human...lol Also goin w/sis & her 7 yr old King Charles Caviler....should be hoot.....aheem...make that a howl!! ;)~
& a very happy wknd all.
Cheers!!
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
& btw.....went long d'turtle @ 109.42.....
since the aussie wiped me out on both the yrly & monthly.....I did da whole enchilada.....jus messin 'round now....lol
This is what my long aussie lots did to me....I went from 300+% on the yrly to around 30% after I got called & the monthly...well lets jus say it's no longer even worth mentioning.
Guess it's time to stop playin 'round now....time to set some serious sl's & tp's....gonna see if I can give myself a 15 pip cushion on the sl's....which seems doable if I remain discipline to my style.
hey....anyone haven Oanda demo probs....connection at times seems slower than molases the last day or 2...experienc'n it right now in fact....
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
ya got dat right....sure wish I knew tho what thing(s) she as base'n her views on? Man alive did she nail that one...think that call took less than 24 hrs to materialze.
& agreed....in a trading enviornment such as this.....guess it's best to scale into positions at a much slower pace.....too damn hard ta figure out where the new channel's wanna exist.
Gotta 'love' a mrkt in correction mode...ya either gotta stay far away or go into severe caution mode....tuff times for the small fry's fo'sho.
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
Yeah the cable took a hit too I see.....
I took up a cable short the other day....Mon I think...& I must admit it was based pretty much solely on a call by the lady on Fast Money.....K-Fine they call her....Karen Finerman....she's the best regular they got there on that panel imo.
Anyway....she said to short the cable so I did....up 379 pips now from an entry of 1.9074 on 8/11.....not bad. Guess I should take some off thw table & let the rest ride a bit more.....tho not sure how much more it'll go down....should be happy with a 300+ move....hehe
Cheers!!
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
The Sage has spoken.....
thx for the words of wisdom.....once again....
indeed, Happy Trails Sensei...
Signed,
Grasshopper ;)~
That sure is 1 doozie of a decision....indeed the way insurance goes here stateside really scares many who would otherwise be very good candidates I imagine.
Indeed it is a very time consuming process once ya get goin...heck, my wife back in the day was a P.E. Major & for the 1st 2 yrs she was in the same classes as those who wanted to become MD's....I told her...heck..a few more yrs of school & you could be a Dr instead of a PE Major....lol
OK...gotta run.....tonz of stuff goin on today....everyone is finally back from the River & we got lotza things goin on....Dr appts (speakin of which...lol), grocery store....yadda yadda yadda.
Back later after the US close.
Cheers!!
All depends on what kinda 4x stick u r swingen....
leverage, size of lots, etc...that's a loaded ?
However for any 4x Newbie out there...no matter what your bankroll & leverage is.....you should begin w/the smallest of lots (micros) & the lowest of leverage & do that for quite sometime...at least til ya blow thru your demo acct a few times.....& if over time ya never blow thru your demo acct...then slowly increase your leverage & lot size til ya think ya can make a decent live go at it all.
Take your time learning the ropes... I still am....tho after 15+ mos of playin around & gettin a fairly decent feel for it all I'm jus about ready to go live myself....& I will begin w/micro lots & approx 10-1 leverage.....maybe switch up to 20-1 if my 1st few weeks of live trading are in the green.
GL!!
Hey...they know a bargain when they see it....or do they? lol
Thanks......
w/re to the comment of both xau & the euro tanking.....true for the euro....& somewhat gold...however w/re to xau....it hasn't been tanking as of late as hard as the euro...so I'm thinking that perhaps they are reallocating into xau more cautiously....perhaps they too aint so sure that xau should be where it is.....as in, maybe it should still go a lil lower from here? But as compared to the euro prior to it fallen off the ledge last week, xau seems to be a better long position.
Tho perhaps I'm still not quite completely comprehending this story as I should....I'd bow to Nettles for a better understanding of all this....I may not have it all totally right...sorry.
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
Oh...I thot xau was bought?
yes...u should be/eom
I think I pretty much just did.....
In short....seems the powers that be (central banks) have reallocated reserves moving stuff around.....selling euros at the top & in turn buying gold at what can be considered new bargain basement prices....if I understood it correctly that is...lol
Well I guess the time was right to buy some xau & sell euros...at least TA wise...but it's like I suspected & said here a week or so ago...it would most likely occur when things slow down or on very lil or no news.
As Ataglance, Jester & others have always said...
ya just gotta figure out where & when the next fix/manipulation move will be & act accordingly. If you hone your manipulation skills, that along w/basic TA will help ya tremendously trading the 4x mrkt.
Thx for sharing that piece....do ya have a link by any chance....sure would like ta read the entire piece if there's more to it....& of course it sure doesn't surprise me in the very least. Indeed...it was a great time to buy the xau & sell the euro that's for sure....& all the while the rich get richer.....& we jus try to capture a few pips up & down w/in these huge moves....same as it ever was....lol
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
Oil not "on Georgia's mind" ;)~
Cramer: Georgia's Not on Oil Market's Mind
Jim Cramer discusses why oil isn't rising over the conflict between Georgia and Russia.
http://www.thestreet.com/s/cramer-georgias-not-on-oil-markets-mind/video/cramermarketupdates/10432763.html?puc=_txtmdb
Steppin out for a few...back for the close....
Cheers!!
As for 4x....never heard of partials b4....w/so much liquidity out there I would imagine there's no such thing....well at least for we small fish. Like Nettles says.....unless you're swinging the stick of a large multi-nat bank or Govt or somethin like that..& even at that, I would guess that if a fill had to be partial, that would be agreed/negotiated upon prior to taking up a position.
I think I have read somewhere that w/re to very large lots, you actually deal w/someone live over the phone....ya call around lookin for your best price. W/large lots like that I think the way I understand it is that it's like shopping around for a car....you go from dealer to dealer to see who will give ya the best quote.
W/4x.....that's an entirely different level however...a level for which I'll never know unless I find a job one day trading for a bank or some large scale institution like that.
So if u r askin for you & your own acct.....I don't think you'll need to worry about partial fills.
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
well it's hard not ta agree that it sure has sold off quite fast 'n furious....one would think it'd have to retrace back north thru a few supports.
Of course the big ? is....where does it finally wanna base/settle down b4 it decides ta make its' move back up?
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
yeah...them & the entire eastern block....along w/most everyone else...'cept yours truly of course...I was buyin'em from'em...lol
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
Maybe even Putin & Cronies are a lil miffed too....perhaps they were also expectin a lil short term 'bang' oudda it as well?
Wonderin jus how much true effect that story has?....not much it seems.
Counter trend....I find myself goin that route too much of the time. Tho as of late w/the dollar gaining momo...it sure hasn't been all that e z ta find decent short entries...been gettin burned..havin by far my most difficult time over the past 15+ mos of doin this.
This is my 1st real significant correction that I'm goin thru....takin lotza notes & learnin a boatload on this recent correction. Def a time to step back & reevaluate sentiment....& speakin of sentiment...Nettles.....what say you? Are the dollar bulls for real this time? Sure is lookin like a bottom has been put in here.....yes, even I'm beg ta think the greenback may've seen its' lows & most likely wont be making a re-test of southern boundries.
U of the same belief...& anyone else for that matter?
There he be....right on!!
Happy ta hear all's been well & that the break has been well rec'd....always good to step back every now & then for a lil breather. However of course we're all lookin forward to your return whenever the time is right for ya.
Thx for comin up for a lil air & try not ta be such a stranger.
Oh btw....1 quick ? 4 ya.....ya know what's up w/JRB's joint? Seems he's taken it down & has put up the "Under Construction" sign.....I've been tellin folks about that board & would like ta know if anyone has a clue as to when it may be back up & runnin.
Cheers Kimosabe!!
Indeed...Fri's (at least by early afternoon est), all day Sun & then not until an hr or so into London's Monday session....give the mrkt a chance ta decide what range it wants ta channel/filter down into....always your safest bet fo'sho.
Kinda reminds me of the Dire Straits tune...Industrial Disease.
"....abolish Mon mornings & Fri afternoons....these are classic symptoms of a monetary squeeze..."
or somethin like that...lol
;)~
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
& unless you're w/a brokerage that charges a fixed spread, you can typically guage how volitile a pair is by the breadth of the spread.....usually the larger the spread, the more volitile the pair.
& even w/most fixed pip spread outfits....it's the same genl rule....if they charge ya say 3 fixed pips for the turtle (usd/jpy...which is kinda high...then again the fixed pip spread outfit are considerably higher of course) they'll charge at least 5 for the pairs like the cable or ugly sister (gbp/jpy)
Think I got all those nicknames right.....really cracked me up when the old schoolers here would always use those ref's for specific pairs...kinda miss it all.
Just checkin in real fast here (yes, I'm back home now...but w/out the girls...all by my lonesome for a coupla days.....til Sun night or Mon afternoon I think....so it's parteeee X!!!) b4 I gotta go out across the bay ta do a SFO p/up....popz & da step monster are comin in from Toronto in a lil while.
Indeed...correction mode priddy much across the board is what we're now experiencing....thus it's def not an e z mrkt ta guage...& prolly will be this way for several more days I'm guessin. Kinda strange bein it's the dog days of summer.....I thought generally speakin this is the quiet time of yr....equities, 4x, etc. Always gottas be on your toes I guess & expect anything at anytime.
But it does fall into line w/what I was sayin the other day....the pairs will move when it seems there's no real news/reasons...right out from underneath us. Then when we get news where ya think it should move the mrkt a certain direction....it either fails to move in the direction ya think it should...or making things even more frustrating/senseless, pairs move in the opposite direction ya think they should....which is why the "go w/your gut & do the opposite" strat can prove 2 b a winner....lol
Back later on for a check up & ta see where the mrkts closed....then back out tonight....off to the Raider v 9er preseason game tonight in Oak...YES.....I am ready for some FOOTBALL!!!....until approx week 5 when the Raiders will be 1-4...lol
Happy Wknd all.....& if u r brave enuff ya trade this mrkt enviornment/dynamic.....mo'powa 2 ya's ;)~
Cheers!!
Aud & Euro continue ta tank.....
how low will they go? Over the past yr + this is by far the largest moves I've yet to witness,
either go short here or stay very clear of this action....lookout below!!
Aud?Us.....
(yes....the ? was intended there)
gettin real close to the bottom of the 5 mos channel here....how much lower will it go?
I've been missen the bottom now for goin on 2 weeks.....guess I wont try to play hero here as I have been & jus simply wait for a decent base to form.....but damn if it continues ta fall off a cliff here.
OK.....last post this AM.....time to go check the line & re-bait it.
Cheers!!
Jus be sure ta answer the phone....
Vandeleigh Industries!! ;)~
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
& not but ystrdy right here on IHub (this board) I saw an ad proclaiming some Co to be the next Berkshire...no joke...maybe one of ya's also saw it? It said somethin like "Mr & Mrs Jones put 1/2 their life savings into Berkshire 35 yrs ago & now that position is worth over 300 mil....you could be next"
Dem days as we all know are gone for good....if a new upstart Co ever got that successful & big it'd be canibalized by a much larger outfit that would gobble up all the profits & turn them into losses faster than u could say "write-off" :0
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
Ya know...I think using the question mark instead of the forward slash to seperate the pairs is best.....we should make it a new board rule...hehe
& Zav....indeed....common sense has no place in this mrkt....or any other exchange for that matter.
Yeah....I like to employ the
go w/your gut & do the opposite strat...works great...especially w/4x ;)~
A very safe way ta play 4x indeed....& trading metals/commodities is a good match cuz typically the movements in that mrkt tends to be a precursor to what will occur in the currency mrkt....ie gold 'n silver.
U wanna know which direction the greenback will turn next.....watch gold....if it goes up.....most times the dollar will beg to trend down....tho that's not been quite the given as of late....still tho, not a bad barometer.
Yeah....welcome to forex...lol....
some say & are of the belief that many outfits (moreso the brokerages who tend to have less working capital) do their best to run their quotes up or down (depending on where the bulk of their clients positions are..long or short a certain pair) just beyond the nearest fib level as fibs are prolly one of the most popular trading tools for entries & exits.
Thus to combat that sneaky lil game some outfits like ta play....it's not a bad idea to set your profit points & stop losses a few pips above or below the closest fib level. & also I've heard that in genl, the smaller the position, the less likely it is that you'll get played with....so watchout when building a fairly large position....if u wanna do that on a consistent basis, it's best to spread it across a few brokerages.
Guess that's another reason ta go with a broker that's well capitalized & has a decent rep.
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
Thx Zav.....there's another good read.....
& another thing that I think is worthy of keepin in mind...keepin it simple....not overthinking thinking tends to lead to success as well.
Thx for that piece....good stuff.
looks like it was the m/m employment #'s down under....seems there's a few more shrimps bein thrown on da bar-b's ;)~
Somethin sure jus spiked da aussie north...finally...a catalyst ta kick start it for me....sheessh!!