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Newman Commodity Channel Index,Use It
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PEIX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p25350528423
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
Introduction
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PEIX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p08190417884
Developed by Donald Lambert and featured in Commodities magazine in 1980, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is a versatile indicator that can be used to identify a new trend or warn of extreme conditions. Lambert originally developed CCI to identify cyclical turns in commodities, but the indicator can successfully applied to indices, ETFs, stocks and other securities. In general, CCI measures the current price level relative to an average price level over a given period of time. CCI is relatively high when prices are far above their average. CCI is relatively low when prices are far below their average. In this manner, CCI can be used to identify overbought and oversold levels.
nwsun Dont Know Who You Are ?
but I Dont Like Your Insinuation
Im a Stockholder & an Electrician In Cali,Who Are YOU ?
Im Long Quite a Few Shares,and Am Posting my Findings Backed Up
With Links and Information.
Not Pumping
(Posting Articles & Facts,as Well as Some Of My Thoughts)
What Are You Doing Here?
Buyer Or Seller,What Is Your Purpose Ney Sayer ?
By Your History (Maybe) Short PUMPER with No Articles,Or Facts to Back It Up.
Dont Mean to Be Rude,but I Definately Dont Like You Implicating Something thats Not.
Mind YOUR Own Buisness !
Forgot to Attach the Document
Pg42 Of Document Neil Koehler Talks Of CarbonCredits
Apparently They Have RINs Worth .05c A Piece
Also,They Are Buying & Selling Carbon Credits to Generate Profits
(Acting as a Trader Of Carbon Credits)
Ref:
On Pg.65 Neil Koehler Starts Talking About
CEPIP funding,FeedStocks(Milo),Partnerships With Mascoma,Embicon,EdeniQ,Aemetis,ZeaChem/CA.Grown Corn/
30,000 Ton Ship Of Milo,AB118,AB32,Cellulosic
Also,They Are Issued Carbon Credits as Per OPIS Website
LCFS credits are generated by selling low-carbon intensity transport fuels for use in California, such as biofuels, natural gas or low-carbon electricity. Fuel producers are rewarded with LCFS credits by the California Air Resources Board for the amount that they reduce their transport fuel’s carbon intensity below their annual target.
http://www.energy.ca.gov/2011-ALT-1/documents/2012-08-01_workshop/2012-08-01_transcript.pdf
Pg42 Of Document Neil Koehler Talks Of CarbonCredits
Apparently They Have RINs Worth .05c A Piece
Also,They Are Buying & Selling Carbon Credits to Generate Profits
(Acting as a Trader Of Carbon Credits)
Ref:
On Pg.65 Neil Koehler Starts Talking About
CEPIP funding,FeedStocks(Milo),Partnerships With Mascoma,Embicon,EdeniQ,Aemetis,ZeaChem/CA.Grown Corn/
30,000 Ton Ship Of Milo,AB118,AB32,Cellulosic
Also,They Are Issued Carbon Credits as Per OPIS Website
LCFS credits are generated by selling low-carbon intensity transport fuels for use in California, such as biofuels, natural gas or low-carbon electricity. Fuel producers are rewarded with LCFS credits by the California Air Resources Board for the amount that they reduce their transport fuel’s carbon intensity below their annual target.
Bull,There Making More than Expected On WDGS
Contacts: Christopher Cota
Pacific Ag Commodities Corporation
P. O. Box 348376
Sacramento, CA 95834
Office Phone: 916-419-8590
Cellular Phone: 530-681-5635
Fax: 916-419-8592
Call,Tell them You Have Some Cattle to Feed & You Need to Know
What WDGS Goes for per Ton.
My Previous Calc. $95 a Ton Or 1/9th Of Corn Costs Or $0.26c Per Gallon Was Wrong.
Its a lil More
producers are losing 32 cents on each gallon of the fuel made, up from 31 cents yesterday,
excluding the revenue that can be pocketed from the sale of dried distillers’ grains
data compiled by Bloomberg show
The conversion rate of corn to distillers grains is: One ton of corn produces 378 L of ethanol and 479 kg WDG (70% moisture content), or 309 kg of DDGS (10% moisture content).
479kg = 1,056 pounds
309kg = 681 Pounds
1 Bushel Of Corn Weighs 17 lbs
17 lbs x 117.64 = 2000 lbs or 1 Ton
117.64 Bushels = 1 Ton
117.64 Bushels Of Corn = 1 Ton
Dec. future 1 Bushel Corn = $7.42
$7.42 per Bushel x 117.64 Bushels = $872.88
$872.88 Worth Of Corn Produces 1.056 Tons Of Wet Distiller Grains
1 Ton Of Wet Distiller Grains Is Worth These Prices In These States
Distillers Grains Plant Prices Per Ton:
Dried Modified Wet
Iowa 245.00-270.00 120.00-135.00 82.00-92.00
Minnesota 235.00-245.00 130.00 80.00
Nebraska 282.00-285.00 135.00-142.00 97.00-115.50
South Dakota 250.00-258.00 130.00-135.50 92.00-98.00
Wisconsin 255.00-265.00 120.00-145.00 NQ
Eastern Cornbelt 248.00-260.00 123.00-130.00 NQ
Kansas 280.00-290.00 NQ 98.00-111.00
Lets Take the Middle Price for Wet Distiller Grains $95 per Ton,& Corn $872.88 per Ton
$872.88/$95 = 9.18
1/9th Of Corn Costs Are Recouped by Selling Wet Distiller Grains
(Dec '12) Ethanol $2.387
$2.387/9 = $0.26c
$0.26c Is Being Recouped from Each Gallon by Selling Wet Distiller Grains
Brazil Wont Be Exporting Ethanol for a while
Brazil Local Sugar Sale More Profitable Than Exports, Cepea Says
By Marvin G. Perez - Nov 19, 2012 12:19 PM PT
Making crystal sugar from cane was 29 percent more profitable than producing anhydrous ethanol, the type blended into gasoline, and 36 percent more advantageous than hydrous ethanol, used in flex-fuel cars, Cepea said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-19/brazil-local-sugar-sale-more-profitable-than-exports-cepea-says.html
Converting Wet Distiller Grains to $0.26c Per Gallon
producers are losing 32 cents on each gallon of the fuel made, up from 31 cents yesterday, excluding the revenue that can be pocketed from the sale of dried distillers’ grains
data compiled by Bloomberg show
The conversion rate of corn to distillers grains is: One ton of corn produces 378 L of ethanol and 479 kg WDG (70% moisture content), or 309 kg of DDGS (10% moisture content).
479kg = 1,056 pounds
309kg = 681 Pounds
1 Bushel Of Corn Weighs 17 lbs
17 lbs x 117.64 = 2000 lbs or 1 Ton
117.64 Bushels = 1 Ton
117.64 Bushels Of Corn = 1 Ton
Dec. future 1 Bushel Corn = $7.42
$7.42 per Bushel x 117.64 Bushels = $872.88
$872.88 Worth Of Corn Produces 1.056 Tons Of Wet Distiller Grains
1 Ton Of Wet Distiller Grains Is Worth These Prices In These States
Distillers Grains Plant Prices Per Ton: Dried Modified Wet
Iowa 245.00-270.00 120.00-135.00 82.00-92.00
Minnesota 235.00-245.00 130.00 80.00
Nebraska 282.00-285.00 135.00-142.00 97.00-115.50
South Dakota 250.00-258.00 130.00-135.50 92.00-98.00
Wisconsin 255.00-265.00 120.00-145.00 NQ
Eastern Cornbelt 248.00-260.00 123.00-130.00 NQ
Kansas 280.00-290.00 NQ 98.00-111.00
Lets Take the Middle Price for Wet Distiller Grains $95 per Ton,& Corn $872.88 per Ton
$872.88/$95 = 9.18
1/9th Of Corn Costs Are Recouped by Selling Wet Distiller Grains
(Dec '12) Ethanol $2.387
$2.387/9 = $0.26c
$0.26c Is Being Recouped from Each Gallon by Selling Wet Distiller Grains
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-20/ethanol-strengthens-against-gasoline-on-higher-production-costs.html
Awesome Bully !
CA. Gov. Picked Winners & Losers with AB 32
Big Oil Loses
Ethanol Wins
Pacific Ethanol Leader Bill Jones was CA. Secratary Of State,& has Signifigant Pull
This Is Why Owning PEIX Is A MUST!
Pg.4 85% E85 In California by 2020
Pg.6 Most California Oil Refiners Phased Out Over Time
http://www.cafuelfacts.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/BCG_report.pdf
The first PCAOB observations took place in late October
By Dena Aubin
NEW YORK | Thu Nov 8, 2012 5:52pm EST
(Reuters) - U.S. regulators have made another step in normalizing relations with China on oversight of corporate auditing aimed at the many Chinese companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/08/us-usa-audit-china-idUSBRE8A71DR20121108
US Listed China Stocks Bet Broke Glickenhaus ?
Glickenhaus to Close Doors, Transfer Assets to Neuberger
By Charles Stein - Oct 15, 2012
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-15/glickenhaus-co-to-transition-business-to-neuberger-berman.html
Thats Alot Of Building Complexes Sun!
Think they Will Show Any Earnings this Q,Or Maybe a PR at Least ?
The first PCAOB observations took place in late October
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/08/us-usa-audit-china-idUSBRE8A71DR20121108
Slash,I Get that GERS Produces .9
Second Gen Higher
& Neil Says Conservative .5 With thier System.
& Also Legal the Aspect Of Patent Liability.
But Why Tell Us ?
Call Neil & Co. & Explain It To Them,You Can Probably Explain It Better than GERs Can.
It Would Probably Be Good to Have,If It Works With Ediniques
Equipment.(Bolt On,Cellunator,ect...)
Good Luck Slash,Seems Like a Good System
Pay .53c for RINs/Make .3612c Per Gallon
Spend .53c for RINs & Get Nothing Or Make .3612c Per Gallon,Thats What Refiners Are Asking them Selves After the Mandate Was Upheld
RINs Cost .53c,Blending Produces 36.12 Cents per Gallon Profit
Mandate 13.2 Billion Gallons In 2012,US ethanol production falls to lowest level in 27 months
production stood at 819,000 b/d for an annualized rate of 12.56 billion ... November 12, 2012
US ethanol production falls to 9.25% of gasoline demand
Jim Lane | November 16, 2012
In Washington, the RFA’s Geoff Cooper reports that, according to EIA data, ethanol production averaged 824,000 barrels per day – or 34.61 million gallons daily. That is down 3,000 b/d from the week before. The 4-week average for ethanol production stood at 819,000 b/d for an annualized rate of 12.56 billion gallons. Overall, gasoline demand for the week averaged 374.1 million gallons daily, and daily ethanol production was 9.25% of that overall supply pool. Refineries also produced 91,961 metric tons of livestock feed, and 4.29 million pounds of corn oil daily.
13.2 billion gallons of biofuels, such as ethanol, with gasoline in 2012 and 15 billion by 2015
Ethanol’s Discount to Gasoline Expands
By Mario Parker - Nov 15, 2012 1:47 PM PT
The additive’s discount to the motor fuel widened to 36.12 cents a gallon from 33.6 cents yesterday, based on December futures prices
data compiled by Bloomberg show
13.2 Billion Mandate Gallons
-12.56 Billion Gal. Annualized Ethanol Production
___________
.64 Billion Gallons
The Question Is,Are Refiners Going to Make the 36.12 cents a gallon
Or
Buy RINs
Renewable identification numbers (RIN) prices declined significantly in the third quarter. Prices were $1.17 at the start of the quarter, dropped to $0.76 at the end of the quarter and were $0.53 on November 08, 2012
Ya Thats a Problem We Need Tariffs Back
ethanol imports for week 11/09/12
East Coast (PADD 1) 53,000 barrels per day
West Coast (PADD 5) 6,000 barrels per day
U.S. Ethanol import week 10/26/12
58.000 barrels per day
East Coast (PADD 1) 35.000 barrels per day
Gulf Coast (PADD 3) 23.000 barrels per day
3 week in a row with zero ethanol import to the West Coast (PADD 5) 0.00 barrels per day
http://www.agra-net.com/portal2/home.jsp?template=newsarticle&artid=20017993096&pubid=ag072
Brazil - Government to raise fuel ethanol mandate from June 1, 2013
Monday October 01 2012
Industry sources reported that Brazil's federal government has decided to raise the minimum blending obligation for anhydrous fuel ethanol and gasoline to 25% vol. from 20% vol. from June 1, 2013.
The June 1 date includes a possible delay for the start of the 2013/14 (Apr/Mar) campaign. If the season starts earlier, the increase in the mandate can be brought forward to May 1, 2013.
Oil Demand Fell 2.3%,Ethanol production down 14%
FYI
Ethanol Production Fell 11.7% More than Oil Demand & Still Falling.
http://www.eia.gov/oog/info/twip/festusm.gif
Production Down
Ethanol production is down 14 percent this year to 824,000 barrels a day, on pace to drop on an annual basis for the first time since 1996 as companies wrestle with declining margins for making the fuel from corn, Energy Department data show.
Based on December contracts for corn and ethanol, producers are losing 29 cents on each gallon of the fuel made, up from 28 cents yesterday, excluding the revenue that can be made from the sale of dried distillers’ grains, a byproduct of ethanol production that can be fed to livestock, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Another thing,thier not Including revenue that can be made from the sale of dried distillers’ grains
Ethanol Stockpiles Dropping,Gasoline Stocks Rising from 2012Low
Gasoline Stocks On the Increase According to Chart
gtstusm.gif (441×285)
Ethanol Inventory Chart Lowest Level Since 2011
DOE Total Fuel Ethanol Inventory Data Analysis - DOESFETH - Bloomberg
How&to Who LCFS Carbon Credits are Awarded
LCFS credits are generated by selling low-carbon intensity transport fuels for use in California, such as biofuels, natural gas or low-carbon electricity. Fuel producers are rewarded with LCFS credits by the California Air Resources Board for the amount that they reduce their transport fuel’s carbon intensity below their annual target.
Source: Argus Website
http://www.argusmedia.com/About-Argus/Press-Releases/2012/Argus-launches-California-LowCarbon-Fuel-Standard-assessment
1 gallon of gasoline produces 20 pounds of carbon
It seems impossible that a gallon of gasoline, which weighs about 6.3 pounds, could produce 20 pounds of carbon dioxide (CO2) when burned. However, most of the weight of the CO2 doesn't come from the gasoline itself, but the oxygen in the air.
When gasoline burns, the carbon and hydrogen separate. The hydrogen combines with oxygen to form water (H2O), and carbon combines with oxygen to form carbon dioxide (CO2).
A carbon atom has a weight of 12, and each oxygen atom has a weight of 16, giving each single molecule of CO2 an atomic weight of 44 (12 from carbon and 32 from oxygen).
(Ethanol Is 1/2 As Much)
US Refineing is Increasing,Ethanol Stocks Decreasing
I Posted the Charts the Other Day,& they show the
Trend
3.2 billion Gal,& the Incentive to blend is getting better
The Gap between ethanol price & Gasoline Widened today
to .38c
.38c profit or an RIN ?
RINs Produce No Profit & Actuall Cost Money to Buy
Ethanol Supply is at the Lowest Level Since Dec. 23 of
Last Year & that was the Low for 2011
Koehler said he's confident the company can meet Nasdaq's timeline.
"It's a yearlong process. We'll figure it out and get the stock back above a dollar because we're a good investment," said Koehler.
(a Month and a half ago,he Said a Year Long Process)
Insinuates they Will Seek an Extension.
http://www.sacbee.com/2012/09/27/4858812/pacific-ethanol-stock-offering.html
US Ethanol Stockpiles Lowest Since Dec.23,2011
17.9M barrels,& Falling
Doub,Better Pop&Stay Popped
With a Vote for $6 mln in Shrs. For
Management,they Must have a Plan to
Make Shr. Price Go Up Ahead Of the
Vote or It Will Not Pass.
US Gasoline Stocks Vs US Ethanol Stocks
http://www.eia.gov/oog/info/twip/festusm.gif
US Gasoline Stocks Vs US Ethanol Stocks
http://www.eia.gov/oog/info/twip/gtstusm.gif
Ethanol Inventory Chart Lowest Level Since 2011
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DOESFETH:IND
For those of you reading getreal's posts
By hartcory254 . 36 minutes ago . Permalink
Just to clarify, they did not accumulate $50,000,000 of new debt in the last 9 months. It was reallocated from long-term to current, not increased. As of 12/31/11, that portion of their long-term debt was not due w/in 12 months, so it was listed as long-term. Now it is due w/in 12 months, so the line item was moved up. This is normal and not concerning. They will simply extend the terms of the note, more than likely at more favorable rates. They are clearly not a credit risk in the eyes of lenders or they would not have recently acquired a $10M LOC. This is a normal and completely appropriate situation. Long-term debt is always issued with a balloon payment at which time new terms are determined.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
They Hedged 3.955 Million Bushels Of Feedstock
Other Derivative Instruments – The Company’s other derivative instruments consist of commodity positions. The fair value of the commodity positions are based on quoted prices on the commodity exchanges and are designated as Level 1.
The following table summarizes fair value measurements by level at September 30, 2012 (in thousands):
Assets:
Commodity contracts(1) 291
Commodity contracts(2) 500
Contracts Are 5,000 Bushels for Each Contract
500 Contracts x 5,000 Bushels = 2,500,000 Bushels
291 Contracts x 5000 Bushels = 1,455,000 Bushels
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=55030905&xref=newsalerttweet
Plus the Ship Load Of Milo they Already Recieved On Oct. 10th
Pacific Ethanol adds to $40 million revolving credit line.
The new credit line provides additional working capital to support plant operations and augments the plants
Pacific Ethanol Holding Co. LLC has added $10 million to its lines of credit, the company announced Thursday.
Credit Suisse Loan Funding LLC acted as the syndication agent for the deal. The Sacramento-based marketer and producer of low-carbon renewable fuels already was supported by a $40 million revolving credit line. The new credit line provides additional working capital to support plant operations and augments the plants’ existing credit facility, the company said.
(Think About It !)
$40 Million Credit Line/$40 Million Debt
Most Of It Unused
the Rest to Support Opperations
They Have to Buy ALOT Of Corn & Milo to Produce 160 mln Gal. Of Ethanol per Year.
This Is What the 10Q Says
They Will be Able to Restructure the credit Line,Much Of Which Is Unused
Realize,this Is Revolving Credit & Is Used and Paid Back Month to Month/Or Quarter to Quarter.
It Is Considdered Current Liabilities Even though It Unused
The Company has had and continues to have extensive communications with holders of the $39,500,000 in debt due June 25, 2013 to restructure the existing loans and any additional loans under the new $10,000,000 credit facility. The Company also continues to explore its capital raising alternatives. The Company believes that it will be able to successfully restructure the loans or raise additional capital, or both, prior to the June 25, 2013 maturity date.
---------------------------------------------------------------
the dividends
Series B Preferred Stock agreed to forebear from exercising any rights they may have with respect to the unpaid dividends until January 1, 2014
(Agreed to forbear till Jan. 1 2014)
The Revolving Credit Is Used for Hedging & Plant Maint,they Have $18.7 Million Cash to Pay Credit Payments.
Read this and get a Grasp Of It Doub
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=55030905&xref=newsalerttweet
excluding dried distillers’ grains revenue losing 30 cents
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-11-14/ethanol-weakens-against-gasoline-on-slack-use-and-ample-supply
Commodity contract Assets:
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=55030905&xref=newsalerttweet
Other Derivative Instruments – The Company’s other derivative instruments consist of commodity positions. The fair value of the commodity positions are based on quoted prices on the commodity exchanges and are designated as Level 1.
The following table summarizes fair value measurements by level at September 30, 2012 (in thousands):
Assets:
Commodity contracts(1) $ 514
Commodity contracts(1) 291
Commodity contracts(2) 500
Bloomberg: Including DDGS Producers are Profiting
Based on December contracts for corn and ethanol, producers are losing 29 cents on each gallon of the fuel made, down from 28 cents on yesterday, excluding the revenue that can be made from the sale of dried distillers’ grains, a byproduct of ethanol production that can be fed to livestock, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Dont Know Why Bloomberg Said Excluding dried distillers’ grains
revenue ?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-13/ethanol-s-discount-to-gasoline-narrows-as-production-costs-rise.html
If You Include DDGS Revenue they are Showing a .573c Profit.
DDGS Are Sold at 1/3 the Price Of Corn
Corn December 2012
$7.25/3 = $2.4176
DDGS Price per Bushel
= $2.4176
$2.4176/2.8 Gallons per Bushel
= .863c
.863c - .29c = .573c Profit per Gallon Including DDGS Revenue
Slash,Bloomberg Article/With DDGS Producers Profiting
Dont Know Why they excluded revenue from dried distillers’ grains
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=81462878
Based on December contracts for corn and ethanol, producers are losing 29 cents on each gallon of the fuel made, down from 28 cents on yesterday, excluding the revenue that can be made from the sale of dried distillers’ grains, a byproduct of ethanol production that can be fed to livestock, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Sounds Like Bloomberg Is Saying
Producers Are Making .573c Profit per Gallon On DDGS
Q4 Should Be Good as DDGS Are Sold at 1/3 the Price Of Corn
Corn December 2012
$7.25/3 = $2.4176
DDGS Price per Bushel
= $2.4176
$2.4176/2.8 Gallons per Bushel
= .863c
Based on December contracts for corn and ethanol, producers are losing 29 cents on each gallon of the fuel made, down from 28 cents on yesterday, excluding the revenue that can be made from the sale of dried distillers’ grains, a byproduct of ethanol production that can be fed to livestock, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
DDGS per Gallon .863c - losing 29 cents on each gallon of the fuel made,excluding the revenue that can be made from the sale of dried distillers’ grains, a byproduct of ethanol production that can be fed to livestock
.863c - .29c = .573c Profit per Gallon On DDGS
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-13/ethanol-s-discount-to-gasoline-narrows-as-production-costs-rise.html
What Does this Mean,DDGS is 30% Corn Price
Based on December contracts for corn and ethanol, producers are losing 29 cents on each gallon of the fuel made, down from 28 cents on yesterday, excluding the revenue that can be made from the sale of dried distillers’ grains, a byproduct of ethanol production that can be fed to livestock, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-13/ethanol-s-discount-to-gasoline-narrows-as-production-costs-rise.html
$18.7M in Cash,or $8.7M
Just thinking,they have $8.7M
Was $10M of that for Senior Notes?
# of Estimates 2
High Estimate -0.06 Paul Resnik of [indiscernible]
Low Estimate -0.16 Ian T. Gilson - Zacks Investment Research Inc.
Consensus Estimate -0.11
http://www.zacks.com/research/report.php?type=estimates&t=PEIX