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OK, I misunderstood your post, but it's part of the overall equation and we can't do much about it. Our best defenses are good recovery rates and production numbers. \V/_ :)
Robo, you never cease to amaze me. Good post.
I see we're back to the Moped picture. You can paint it Pacific Gold blue and white after you take the training wheels off. \V/_ :)
Give it a break. MM's make money on volume not share price. Your argument will have more validity when the volume is high. Right now it's chump change to them. |V/_
Welcome to the board. Take a look at the newly updated ibox; there's a lot of good information there. The board's a little edgy because of the delay, but you only have a four day window now to to make your decision. Your kind of like the guy looking at the urinal with a quarter in it; saying to yourself, "It ain't worth it." Throw another quarter in now and it may be worth it. \V/_ ;)
Whatever happened to the share lock theory that was floating around last August? Given the relative stability of the share price with the delayed 10Q and longs sucking up cheap shares. It may be more of a possibility this time around. Of course that theory excludes bundy and stamplicker. The MM's have to have some shares available for their after announcement bear raid. No buyout this year. A more likely but still remote possibility might be a joint venture with a major at BRCM. It would have to depend on the terms, but there would be significant advantages. It would provide an influx of needed capital for expansion, technical and managerial expertise, and cheaper refinery costs to name a few. It's just a thought, I'm interested in seeing what others think on this. Idle hands are the devil's workshop. MT has even taken up painting to fill up the hours while he waits. Can't say much for his color choices though.
Hinky, how are you doing? Don't quit just short of the miracle.
Where's lowtrade?
\V/_ :)
Naw, something new this time; maybe black and blue for bruised investor sentiment. Slow drying would seem to be appropriate. \V/_ ;)
Right on fox; 3,365,487 shares traded isn't what I call massive. Those who own are holding, those who want to buy are waiting. I stiill am not happy about the delay, but some of this stuff is just silly. Lot's of talk about a buyout today. The majors want to see sustained production over a period of time with confirmed resources.
We know they're producing; the question is how much. The delay may well be justified but the effect doesn't help the perception of the company. The long term outlook is good. The short term sucks.
Thought you took a vow of silence.
Morning wolverine; I follow an oil stock that has followers who have been invested with the company for years. The posters are eternally optimistic and keep trying to shore each others belief in the company. The truth is that the company is poorly managed, has a clepto Nigerian major stock holder and has lost 200% of its value this year. I'm not saying that the example applies to PCFG but there's an eerie similarity to the post streams for the two stocks. I'm not saying that PCFG is about to go under or anything like that. At best the fact that they're late is annoying. There are a number of possible reasons why they're late, good, bad, silly, reasonable, unreasonable. However, there are certain times in life where being on time is important. It's like being at a wedding and the groom hasn't shown up. The vultures are already starting to circle and it's time for the patient to wake up and say I ain't dead yet.
I can't see any reason to sell at these prices and I'd be buying now if I had the powder. The question is, "Where's the beef?"
Well, we wanted volume; looks like we got it today. Semper Fi \V/_
Management didn't screw us, but they did screw up by not getting the 10Q out on time. We need to stop putting lipstick on a pig here. Put yourself in the shoes of a potential investor. Why should they buy when there is so much unknown? If I were sitting on the sidelines, I'd bide my time and wait until I could see the actual numbers. There was no run up this time because people were waiting for the production results. The longer they wait the lower the share price will be. In this case no news is bad news. For those of us who have done the dd it's still a good investment. But to a newer or retail investor it's still too risky to make the leap. What we'll attract until the actual report is out are day traders, bottom feeders and flippers. Do we really want that? All this speculation about delaying the announcement to screw the shorts and MM's is just pure BS. If they were actually doing that it would be borderline, if not actually, illegal. The best way to screw them would be to publish good results and let the market do it for them.
I'm still cautiously optimistic, but I'm also a little pissed.
One good result of this lash up is that Robo has taken a vow of silence for the interim.
Dee, I hope you're right. The board has done an excellent job of trying to hold down negativitiy and I applaud those who've stepped up to the plate. There are a couple of things that need to be out in the open. Uncertainty in the market is a killer. We can do all the dd in the world and make reasonable conclusions from that dd, but when it comes down to it investing in a stock is a matter of faith, faith in management, faith in the company's potential, faith that our investment will grow. Today's events have shaken that faith. If you think about it, it really isn't our job to do damage control; it's the company's. To avoid a public relations disaster they need to get something out in the next 24 hour period to restore confidence. In other words they need to cowboy up and tell us why the dog ate their homework. Every day that they delay we'll see an exponential rise in doubt. Right now the silence is deafening.
I don't want to soumd too negative, but we need somethig from the company now to shore up investor confidence.
Kinda like brown side out, huh. Semper Fi. Dee Dog may have been a Squid but he's OK in my book. Lot of Lookie Lous on the board, but no significant buying pressure. \V/_
Smart man.
MT Pockets:
Puce is a color from reddish to purplish brown. Derived from the French word for flea. By extension the color of a flea. Try going to Home Depot and asking for a color swatch of puce; make sure you have bail money before you go though. Somehow, it seemed appropriate for Robo.
Speaking of Robo, he may be right. There's been a lot of whistling in the dark with the the delay. I've moved a bit closer to neutral pending the filing. If they wait until next Monday to get it out, we'll see a pretty big hit on the share price. If that happens vallium sales will double over the next week, maybe even a few heart attacks and a couple commitments to mental health units. The longer they wait the worse it will get and add credence to the naysayers. Today's posts have an eerie similarity to those leading up to the August 15th announcement. I feel for you guys who are married; I can just see the. "I told you so," stare over the kitchen table. The last time they did this was August 14th 2008.
Anyway, what I can afford is already committed and my fingers are still crossed like the rest of the longs. Never a dull moment. I'd try another suppository, but they taste awful.
\V/_ :( :)
Just got back from the VA. Looks like a couple of more coats of paint. Next time try Robo's cheerleader colors, puce and vermillion. With the filing of the extension he may be getting rid of his short skirt and pom poms. Thanks for the offer, but the clinic gave me some suppositories. For all the good they did for me, I could have shoved them up my butt. Looks like it's going to be a circus until the 10Q comes out. Let's see who the real longs are. The Bundy curse is still working. Time for a nap. Wake me up when we get there.
JT: Thanks for the PM. As always good to hear from you.
\V/_ ;)
Thank goodness I've got a VA appointment this morning; maybe I could stop by the mental health unit and see if they can do something about my condescending attitude. \V/_ ;)
Morning Dee, damn paint isn't dry yet; did MT sneak in during the night and add an extra coat. Looks as if today is going to be like summer vacation with the kids in the backseat asking. "Are we there yet?"
Morning fox, your Patriots won and my Bears did too, so a good start to the week. You're right I think it would be hilarious if we were all off on our projections/ A little humility is good for the soul, especially mine. Fifteen minutes and we're off to the races.
[Edit] For anyone who has an L2, it would be nice if you posted it off and on during the day if the action gets heavy.
Very professional update. Clear, concise, easy to follow, comprehensive, even spiffy if I might say so. Well done! \V/_ :)
You have a point and it's well taken. Adding 2 hours to the work day would keep production in the daylight hours. Ultimately, expansion is the way go; the question is when will it occur and how long will it take? Let's enjoy today and tomorrow; for my part, I'll hold off on this thread until we get the company's guidance and 10 Q when we'll have more substantive information.
Overtime is a short term solution. It would take at least a month or two to get a second shift trained and up to speed. So in the near term it would be the best way to increase output. Working an additional 2 hours per day and an occasional Saturday wouldn't be a safety hazard. There have been a number of studies on overtime by a lot of institutions on this and the consensus is that the safety and production aren't impacted significantly when working a ten hour day. After ten hours, productivity falls of a cliff and accidents skyrocket. If they go to a ten hour shift and work an eight hour shift every other Saturday each month that would give them approximately 69.57 extra hours of production every month. With the plant running @ 95% capacity or 142.5 yards per hour. That would add around 9,914 yards to the monthly production numbers; not enough to get to the 40,000 yards per month target, but a step in the right direction. I'm in full agreement with you that a second shift is a good idea, but the use of overtime in the very near term would help significantly in getting to the desired 480,000 annual rate. So, in the interim it may not be "absolutely the worst thing they could do." How's that for thinking out of the box? It could even be a pretty good idea.
[Edit] No such luck. \V/_ :)
Your off by a factor of ten because you're using .03 and .04 instead of .3 and .4 grams per cubic yard, that should give you better estimates. Doing that will move your decimal point one slot to the left. I've made that mistake a couple of times myself. I've always gone by the theory if it looks wrong, it probably is. Your thinking is good though and if you move the decimal your numbers will be in the ball park. \V/_ :)
Commendations are the one thing I don't need. Self respect based on the opinion of others is bound to fail from the start.
OK, we're making progress. I'd like for you to reconsider your statement:
You should be.
Now that's a real knee slapper:
Good, the old Robo we love to hate is back. How about the one where you saw Mitch salting the mud pile with a shot gun full of nuggets to fool us unwitting investors into thinking we have a real gold mine. Sometimes people just don't appreciate your warped sense of humor. MT has a new pair of plaid jeans he's willing to sell you to go along with your tie died T-shirt. \V/_ ;)
Fox I realize your fuse is a lot shorter than mine and I hope you haven't gotten too frustrated with this thread. I had a long career as an aviation manufacturing engineer/production planner so this kind of calculation is my baliwick. When I first set up the spread sheet, I almost immediately realized that they wouldn't be capable of meeting their estimated production projections without overtime or increased plant capacity. Since increasing plant capacity would take time and a signifcant amount of money, overtime would be the best possible current solution. Your quote shows that the company is aware of this. So, I don't think that there's any argument there. The question is how much would that overtime effect the $270,000 monthly cost of production. Additional man hours at time and a half would be significant. That's been my primary point all along.
Second, I learned that rounding off numbers can get you in trouble faster than you might think. Each time you round off when doing your calculations will skew you predictions significantly, and it gets skewed every time you round off in the process. The process is cumulative and logrithimic in nature. For accurate estimates the rounding off should be done at the end of the process not during the process. I always try to use the best numbers available to decrease the margin of error as much as possible. In my post# 72417 I pointed out that there were some significant discrepancies. Please reread that post and let me know if there's an error in my calculation based on a 40 hour week. Try your calculations with my numbers and see what you come up with.
As to the issue of stockpiling gravel, they're using three forty ton trucks. so each 4 mile trip they make from the mine site to the mill they'll be delivering 120 tons or 80 yards of material. If they make 15 round trips per truck per day that works out to 1,200 yards per day which is the plant's current 100% capacity. If they process @ 95% capacity (1,140 yards/day) They'd have an extra 60 yards per day added to the stockpile. That would add up to approximately 1,304 yards per month or 1.14 days worth of gravel, hardly enough to meet the deficit from their stated goals. So if they work overtime they'll have to run the trucks too.
OK, all that being said take some time off and enjoy the weekend; we'll know soon enough who's figures were closer to the actual output. If you wantthe last word you can have it, I won't mind a bit. |V/_
Good you caught the assumption about the 350 yards at the start of August. That was an educated guess on my part based on the following:
This has turned into something of a food fight, so I'll try to be as gentle as I can with my critique. There is an error in your calculations, you use 750 yards per day for the entire month of August and 1,000 yard for the entire month of September. The PR states:
It matters at least marginally because overtime will effect the $270,00.00 fixed costs as well as increase maintenance costs. Expansion will be a large capital expense. I suspect that they were using the 200 yards per hour figure when they made their projections.
The problem is in the following equation:
There was some debate on this when I put the spreadsheet out and I opted to go with the more conservative number. The 10.5 ounces would be the first few days in August. Feel free to use 30 ounces. Geaux PCFG \V/_ What do you think of Robo's new pic?
I wasn't clear in my post by profitable I meant they'd be making money in our expected range. They could break even at around .2 grams per yard; I won't quibble with your .15 figure. The break even point will vary with the price of gold. At 95% of full production they'd process about 24,000 yards per month with a 40 hour week, thus the need for overtime or expansion to meet their production goals.
Best coined word of the week award,"premature stockulators."
Actually it's not conservative; the throughput was lowered in the Aug 15th guidance.
The plant's capacity is 150 yards per hour times 8 hours time 95% equals 1,128 yards per day.
Yep. I've been saying that since September when I started the spread sheet. Look down near the bottom @ the 2012 projections.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aoc-yrSZRiCVdF83dlNNNUQtN0w1UHRBaWJKSHUxWEE&hl=en_US#gid=0
I liked the old one better.