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Thanks Sendme.
Using a 5 min chart.
w/following indicators.
RSI
CCI
Full Stoch
Stoch RSI
MACD
Keep up the good work!
Nice job pointing out 3x top from last march ok. time to use rsi and scalps those tops as I wait for reversal!
sanka sendme
Interesting read:
June 30th, 2017, 03:51 AM
Welcome to Black Energy Crash Friday, oil for certain, doubtful about natural gas.
COLUMN-U.S. shale producers are drilling themselves into a hole: Kemp - Reuters News
30-Jun-2017 15:04:14
John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own
By John Kemp
LONDON, June 30 (Reuters) - U.S. shale firms are drilling themselves into a deep hole despite warnings from industry leaders about the risk of flooding the market with too much crude.
Drilling and production are rising. Prices are declining. Companies are barely breaking even or losing money. Costs are starting to rise. And share prices are sliding.
Current oil prices are not sustainable according to Harold Hamm, the chief executive of Continental Resources, said in an interview on June 28.
Prices need to be above $50 per barrel to be sustainable and below $40 would force producers to idle rigs, Hamm said ("Harold Hamm warns oil prices below $40 will idle U.S. drilling", CNBC, June 28).
"While this period of adjustment is going on, drillers don't want to drill themselves into oblivion. Back up, and be prudent and use some discipline," he urged rival chief executives.
Many of Continental's leases are in North Dakota's Bakken and Oklahoma, where wells are typically more expensive to drill and yield less oil than some other shale plays.
The resurgence in shale drilling over the last year has been concentrated in the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico, where costs are much lower and yields higher.
There are now almost 370 rigs drilling for oil in the Permian compared with 50 in the Bakken, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes.
The number of rigs drilling in the Permian has almost tripled since the end of April 2016, and the Permian now accounts for almost half of the rigs drilling for oil in the United States.
But even in the Permian, shale firms have struggled to make money with oil prices stuck below $50, raising questions about the sustainability of the drilling boom.
Many shale drillers claim they can drill wells profitability even with benchmark WTI prices below $50 as a result of significant cost reductions and improvements in efficiency.
But most shale firms were still losing money or at best breaking even in the first quarter of 2017, even before the renewed slump in prices.
Pioneer Resources says it has the largest acreage in the prolific Spraberry/Wolfcamp section of the Permian and low average royalty and acreage costs.
Pioneer has been praised by equity analysts for its active hedging programme that aims to protect cash flow from short-term volatility in oil prices.
But the company reported losses (negative net income) of $273 million in 2015 and $556 million in 2016.
Pioneer reported a further loss of $42 million in the first quarter of 2017, despite the substantial rise in oil prices compared the same period a year earlier.
Continental lost $354 million in 2015 and $400 million in 2016 before just about breaking even with net income of less than $0.5 million in the first quarter of 2017.
EOG Resources, another prominent producer, reported a loss of $4.5 billion in 2015 and $1.1 billion in 2016 before turning a small profit of $29 million in first quarter 2017.
Since the first quarter, WTI prices have fallen by more than $3.50 per barrel, or 7 percent, from an average of $51.78 in January-March to just $48.14 in April-June, intensifying pressure on shale producers even further.
Many shale firms have hedging programmes that should protect them from the decline in prices in the short term, but most have hedged only a small proportion of next year's production.
The current calendar strip allows producers to lock in WTI prices at just $48 for 2018, so most are waiting for a renewed rise in forward prices.
But every week they wait, their hedging cover declines by around 2 percent, assuming they have an average hedge maturity of 12 months.
In the meantime, producers are braced for cost inflation, with the major oilfield services firms pressing for price increases by the end of the year and into 2018.
Since WTI prices peaked in late February, shale producers have added more than 150 extra rigs drilling for oil.
The rig count is up by 430 over the last 12 months even though WTI prices are now $3 per barrel lower.
But share prices for all the major producers are sliding. Pioneer's share price is down almost 15 percent since the start of the year. Continental is down 39 percent. EOG has fallen 13 percent.
Many shale producers seem to be relying on OPEC to bail them out by cutting its own output further to drive WTI prices back above $50 per barrel.
But it not be rational for OPEC to cut output if the only consequence was to encourage continued growth in U.S. shale. Key OPEC producers appear unenthusiastic about further cuts.
If something cannot go on forever, it will stop. The slide in oil prices over the last four months is sending a signal to shale firms about the need to moderate drilling and production programmes.
Either the drilling boom moderates very soon, or WTI prices are likely to fall below $40 per barrel to make it stop.
Related columns:
"Oil traders hunt for shale's pain threshold", Reuters, June 21
"OPEC and U.S. shale drillers are on collision course", Reuters, June 14
"U.S. oil rig count to peak soon unless WTI prices rise", Reuters, May 31
Wow. You'll get another chance, they will need to split soon getting to expensive!
Been there done that. Its exhilarating on steroids. It was early in my trading experience with VIX tools. Dang near dangerous to your health!
Now XIV or VMIN like WZ plays are safer tools in a bull market. Or a market with plunge protection as it appears we are in! If I see XIV at 30 after severe correction. Im loading and staying!
NG 2.70 lets go!
Me too. sure hope LABD isn't getting away from us
I cant handle those vix spikes getting to old for that shit lol.. CNBC was shorting market had some big time bear on during lunch!
Im short UGAZ at 12.80~sh and Long DGAZ at 24.90..I think im holding through weekend eh?
Well here's what I think. Im in DGAZ for a scalp up to next week report.
I think UGAZ will go down to 11.0/11.50 then pop again to 12.50/12.75..If they dont take her up next week. UGAZ can see 10.50 or lower before climbing into shoulder season.
My opinion only!
The issue is that next weeks report is going to be bearish. It was 67 degree yesterday in NYC is cool today. Is been cool all week! Pool pump running no one going in. Need to break out the heater!
They may try to squeeze the large short position who knows. Im betting UGAZ does not breech 13.20. Loading DGAz bit by bit!
scottrade wont allow short on UGAZ haha
opps need to buy more lower UGAZ wont breech 13.30
Pick up DGAZ at 24.90
sold 63.15
bought jdst 61.15
Wow! Hell of a job there! Quite nice. I disagree with you though... I expect USD to drop overnight helping gold and miners. Miner results tonight and tomorrow I'm expecting will be good... good news for JNUG. But at 18.70$? Hell of a price right there.
NP - will wait for a good JDST entry the GDX twins always pullback after a beastly run!
Oil - producers enjoyed these high prices and are hedging these (can't find my link no more....). Basically means they don't expect prices to raise much further.... but I honestly don't give a damn. I'll be holding these dwt's long term.... expecting $42 - 39 in oil between now and Sept, giving us $40+ DWT
Wow 40 in DWT I was thinking about that last night only got to 35 in my thoughts but 40+ is very possible.
Anyhoot! Congrats! Nice work!!!
Nice job WZ:
Was busy and couldn't watch til eod. Got DWT at $28.0099 at 3:59:32. Should have waited til 3:59:45 would have got 27's...
I scalped dwt twice today once pm then when she hit 27.80 sold the pop in am now back in at 27.90 small load waiting to see if she goes lower in the am.
That JNUG though. Had a sell order at $18.49 for my $16.75's. Didn't think it would jump that much!!!
I had JDST on Thursday/Friday at 64.00 sold yesteday at 68.00 bought Jnug this morning and sold it at 18.70. (dont think she goes much higher tomorrow looking to buy jdst again for a scalp)
And VIX!!! Green finally! Down about 30% so far.... quite happy we got green!!!
Vix dont like me staying away from that!
Tomorrow should be fun. Oil down, markets down, gold up, VIX up and Natty..... I'll guess up. It's really just a guessing game at this point.
Natty loaded the 11.82 selling half now in AM at 12.22. I think we can buy UGAZ tomorrow ~12.00. think NG pops with report. looking to sell UGAZ at 11.50/11.75. Then load the boat with DGAZ.
Love this game! lol ty wz
Nice loaded at 11.82 as well. Getting ready to dump my jnug boat soon. scalping dwt from 27.90 One heck of a day!
Sanka just flipped looking for low 28 again then I hold for till next week
sold PM for small gain, now buying the 27's
Nice I filled at 29.38. Looking for more tomorrow! How long the wait couple of weeks before taking off again?
WZ have you bought DWT yet?
TIA
Congrats very difficult to trade NG in consolidation/sideways season.
Im looking to buy at 11.50 or lower for a scalp leading into or after bullish report. However I will sell the pop. Dont think UGAZ goes pass 13.20 on the pop. But thats me and what im doing!
For all I know yesterday 11.56 was bottom for now!
Nice ty sendme.. Nice call on JDST$ yesterday! Looking for entry in LABD also! Although I believe patience is critical if market stay up BIO will be up!
NG will be down to yesterdays low or lower. Thats where Im hoping on.
Nice job Guta. Waiting to add UGAZ tomorrow!
If it closed today it would not hurt UGAZ much/ at all. Unless of course they pull it up to the current spot.
We are in backwardation regarding roll over this should help or not hurt UGAZ.(note we've been in backwardation for a couple of days and still NG going down.) The bigger issue is the downward trend. 2.60 is possible/ not likely but possible!
Spot-3.03
NG -2.93
August-2.938
Sept- 2.926
Me think sub 2.80 is coming if is before or after report is the question! Safe bet is to wait for Low this week to enter UGAZ...
I view swap dealers and merchants, producers and commercials the same. Swap dealers are middle men in the NG deal charging a fee!
This is the group that carries more weight. When they go long it is said that sonner or later the NG prices will rice.
If healthcare bill takes on a partisan approach. Biotech's are in for some pain. Could happen after Republican approve repeal alone and ask democrats to get involved. Democrats will propose single payer and restrictions to drug companies.
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/democrats-open-single-payer-health-insurance-party-leader/story?id=48791105
Nice job thanks Sendme
This weeks COT:
Commercial Producers:
Long = 3,327,843
Short= 4,290,311
Note:
"If the commercials are net long, you can expect the market to turn higher at some point in the future. However, it is critical as part of your trading plan to use a timing trigger to go long because the commercials can stay in losing positions for a long-time as they average down their cost. Unless you have deep pockets, this is a risky strategy."
The issue here is that the commercial are net short as of last week! which means more down side!
Large Speculators:
Long = 1,028,169
Short = 82,853
Note:
"When the net position of the large speculators is at an extreme, expect the market to move in the opposite direction of the net position of the large speculators. For example, if the large speculators are net long and the net position is at an extreme and prices have been moving up, expect the price of the commodity to correct down".
So I would say you can expect more down side. I say till first week of August.
Banks: The CFTC has not updated bank position this week yet..hmmmmm!
Open interest up 52.3K More players!
History of COT Reports last 5 weeks:
As you can see the Commercial shorts and Large Speculators have dominated for the last 5 weeks.. Which Eludes to NG going down eh?
NG chart for last 5 weeks:
So going into June 20th NG has gone down from 3.20 to 2.85. From June 20 till now it is trading sideways up and downs. So I would say the COT is pretty much accurate although reactive and not pro-active!
Enjoy your weekend!
Here's what I think/hope will happen stating sometime in August.
You see the similarities? NG went up from March until everyone thought it would take off in late may heading into June/July hot weather. Not! It has gone straight down with a small pop/sideways action here and there.
Refer to 2013 chart:
So now we enter August 2017 everyone is thinking NG will go down since we are trading Sept contracts and we are moving into shoulder season large NG injection cool weather eh. Not, I bet that NG is going to take off in August representing a late summer run or the run we should of had in late May. It is going to continue to go up into shoulder season with a drop/sideways action just like we had in the summer 2017. Shoulder season will be choppy until Nov or cold weather presents its evil head.
Note: commercial and producers of NG will take advantage of season to raise NG prices as buyers look to buy early before winter season.
Thats my story Dollar and Im sticking to it. Plan to get even...
NG 2013 to 2014 Cool summer and Cold winter scenario:
NG 2017 Cool Summer possible Cold winter scenario:
Here are the top 10 holdings for IBB: Link has the rest of portfolio.
Im still waiting for end of July or IBB 330+ to load LABD. Although I bought a tad at 5.95..
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-nasdaq-biotechnology-etf
All driven by weather! right now down. Your doing a great job of playing in between the lines keep up the good work.