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I'm not up on this, did the insider percentage have to be reduced further before uplisting? Isn't there a maximum insider percentage allowed by AMEX?
Some big long positions in that filing -- e.g., 1.8M shares under the sole control of a popular member on this board.
Zester - a couple months ago you said you were a long. What's your true disclosure -- you seem to post more frequently when prices drop than when they rise. There isn't anyone here who doesn't check the price on LPIH, so it really isn't that dramatic when you make continual announcements on how close to the "abyss" this cash cow is. Maybe full disclosure of your position at the bottom of your post might help give some perspective.
The uplisting should still happen, breaking 2 in mid-day shouldn't be a problem as long as it closes above 2 for 30 days. Correct me if I'm wrong. And so what if it does close below 2, more opportunity to buy as the fools bail out. If the uplist is delayed 30 days, it won't really change their business model, it will just give a boost to the EPS from the money added back in from outstanding warrants revalued lower on June 30th versus March 30. That might actually be a good thing for longs.
LPIH will hold the same minimum floor it's held for months now. With quarterly cash flows already triple from early last year, projected annual revenues are far higher for FY2011, regardless of current market sentiment. There are a lot of investors out there who are aware of this, relative to the number of publically traded shares, so there are buyers willing to grab this undervalued stock acting as a safety net. The trading range of LPIH never drops below 2 because it's ALREADY undervalued substantially (partly because of priced-in aversion to paying too much for a stock with substantial warrants/preferreds); likewise that is the same reason LPIH cannot easily hold a move above 3 very long. That may change after uplisting.
Since the last management change occurred to prepare LPIH for uplisting, I've sold a bunch of other stocks and moved in to LPIH. The conservative stocks did not pull back as hard as LPIH, but compared to oil stocks, LPIH is about even (I'm down 7 percent from my basis price). Regardless of uplisting, that fifteen cents per share will be wiped out in a couple days of trending, just not sure when it will all start. Comfortable with holding for as long as it takes, but since I'm now very overweight 3-times more than I'd normally be in any one microcap stock, because of the uplisting anticipation, I am keeping a very close eye on LPIH developments, in case of something totally out-of-the-blue, such as accouting irregularities or facility accident, etc. knock on wood...
Added this morning, broke all my allocation percentage rules. Not many other things in my portfolio now left to sell other than IRAs, LOL
I added more shares - couldn't resist at this price and being so close to uplisting. The forward P/E being in the 3s, which is ridiculously priced for such a high demand product in China. Once the uplisting happens and oil gets back to "normal", which it undoubtedly will this year, we are talking about tripling the current share price just to place LPIH back into the P/E range considered typical for china oil and gas microcaps when the markets are not undergoing correction.
LPIH is selling into an entirely domestic customer demand that is increasing at a good clip in China, so it's valuation really shouldn't correlate with the overall china market correction and US market correction due to Greece, but yet because of sentiment it does. Therefore, this month's market correction makes LPIH an even better value, basically a steal at this price.
Glen, OT - where are you now with your "going to cash" plan that you mentioned on your BLOG the other day. Because of impending uplisting, LPIH did not slide with other microcaps in China, but of course it would have already had a larger upside move than it has appeared so far if the markets (China as well as US/Europe) weren't contracting to the extent of the last couple weeks.
I'm half the farm in LPIH, but zero in other microcaps, so how close do you think is the market to the next low point for buy-in prices for other energy-related microcaps in china? P/E valuations in the only two relatives of LPIH (NEP and CBEH) are now down into the high 7s, which we haven't seen for a long time (since last fall for NEP and since before uplisting for CBEH). I realize NEP is not an ideal benchmark because negative mareket sentiment comes from their accounting errors and awaited resubmissions that have not yet materialized. But the Hong Kong Exchange keeps dropping (another 5 percent Sunday night) and oil keeps dropping. I'd like to time opening new positions in CBEH and NEP, or possibly other microcaps in China as prices drop. To open new positions I'd be selling the big China oil majors, Kunlun Energy, PTR, and China Oilfield Services (already sold CEO).
Last 60 minutes to buy before earnings are announced before the next open. And uplisting could happen anytime on the heels of earnings. Back up the truck before it all kicks in.
Disclaimer: Bet the farm, tank farm, that is...
Ignoring temporary up at the open today, I just put in a lower bid at 2.19, turned off my computer and forgot about it. With the overall market volatility in play right now, I guessed at SOME point today we'd hit the target.
And yes, there are a lot of day traders in on this, but they can get burned just like the average person. The part I don't like is when they only buy the first 500 shares of my bid then the price goes up a penny, then no one will buy the lion's share.
Couldn't resist adding 15K today. I've broken all of my allocation percentage rules, LOL. In a week when earnings come out it will pull out of this range, regardless of market conditions...then hopefully uplist is just around the corner...
Still holding LPIH as well. I analyzed risk and portfolio scenarios many times with LPIH in the last few weeks. The company has been in business since 1995, has more than doubled capacity in the last few months, in a region with growing demand, even if China has a dip the overall oil usage is still gonna be up. Plus, the CFO Crane has uplisted other China companies successfully, so uplisting should happen. Crane has also handled the accounting for warrants properly (unlike NEP, where their accounting did not properly handle multiple issues).
My idea is that as a worst case, until uplisting this stock is stuck in a trading range, going up on earnings and on news reports, going down on conversions. I am not going to sweat being down 8% from my basis price, as I've owned LPIH from 2.25 up to 3.20, then down to 2.05, then back up to 3, now back at 2.32.
Since the Dec.31 report came out mid-February, there should be a filing of the Q ending March 31 released in less than 2 weeks. Since the stock price at the end of 3/31 was about equal to the price on 12/31, the warrants won't negatively impact EPS this time, so the new facility's revenues should look pretty to the bottom line for this Q.
I see this stock climbing three hills one after the other -- First, earnings should make the stock price drift up for a week or two. Second, the market makers and news outlets will write about the earnings while also advertizing impending uplisting on SeekingAlpha, TheStreet, and a few other places, which should bring the price to around $3 to $3.30. Third, when the actual announcement of uplist happens, we'll see another $0.50 sharp spike in the course of the next 2 days, and after that, continued drifting upwards over 30 days to 60 days to a short-term peak around $4 to $4.70, give or take. After that it is anyone's guess, and will depend on the earnings through June 30 that are published around mid-August.
The only thing that might be a minor setback is if we have a world "fear-contango" regarding Greece and Spain. But that will only be temporary till uplist.
"saw dilution according to the charts" ... I believe the answer, but to enlighten me, how do I read the simple ETrade volume charts (red/green/black) and price chart and confidently make that conclusion? (This is a newbie question, but since it applies to LPIH I'll post it here, I'm not embarrassed.)
Topped off the truck with another 5K at $2.46. I'm gonna stop loading now that I'm at 50K.
It's good to know the floor on this stock is around 2.10 - 2.20, having just dropped from 3 to 2.46. I'm now $0.06/share below my basis price, but clearly, this baby WILL go up at the right time, more likely sooner than later. I wish I'd filled more of the truck at 2.1 instead of multiple trips at various prices between 2.1 and 2.89. But with uplisting application done, and with Crane's ability to get stocks uplisted, that changes the reward/risk game. Despite being loaded up now, I still am hearing the bells and lights flashing SALE!, SALE!, SALE! each time LPIH drifts temporarily lower, LOL.
I think every stock has slightly different uplist performance. The China market correlation is smaller for a petroleum company than other industries. Second, to have a strong, sustainable pop upon uplisting, the next earnings has to look strong as well. I think we all agree the news of March 31 quarter's results will look good, so the release of that earnings on or about mid-May will be a positive catalyst to PPS. Short term, if LPIH uplists within a month of mid-May, give or take, that should be the biggest predictor of how strong of a pop the stock will see. Further down the road, whether to hold or sell LPIH, the next important indicator will be the June 30th quarter's earnings, which get reported in Mid-August. Hopefully, revenues will be up even further, but GAAP adjustments due to PPS changes since the previous quarter will not weigh too heavily on the EPS
Well, it does put the stock at a relative low sale price. However, I had more fun backing up the truck to load up at 2.10 a while back than today at 2.67, but we are much closer to uplisting now, so it's worth it. I'm at 40K shares.
Goodie, everything in the market just went on sale, blue light special. The trouble is, everything in my wallet just got smaller at the same time.
Looking at MapofTheMarket, it sure does make you wonder how the heck Goldman Sachs testifying can be one of the primary drivers of making the market sink today, yet their company is green, not red. Hilarious:
http://www.smartmoney.com/map-of-the-market/
Bought one last slice of the LPIH pie today.
Since the uplisting application is official news, there's no better time to be in the money than right now. This time I sold holdings of my Roth IRA and replaced it with LPIH, since it might help mitigate an even larger tax bill after it doubles or triples.
Talk about a conviction buy, it's now 30% of my portfolio, despite me being a diversified investor with normally around 25 individual holdings.
Yes, that is fantastic news, thanks. I never was a "doubting Thomas", but just wanted to see it in concrete because this kind of news travels fast and will suck in new investors like a black hole. That should push LPIH into the low to mid-3's very soon. I am wondering if I have enough time for stock sale settlement in my Roth and to buy LPIH before it is actually approved. In a Roth you cannot buy on margin and I've already contributed the max for 2010.
I do believe LPIH is uplisting very soon, meanwhile I'm trying to get a better handle on WHEN. I'm done adding shares (currently 25% of portfolio). I'd like to own more, but hey, I'm age 52, and what if their property had an explosion tomorrow or some kind of totally unpredictable fraud exposed -- although I seriously doubt that with Crane and LPIH company history. But my point is no one knows everything.
I'm trying to brush up my tracking skills for identifying uplisting candidates. I do know about directors being appointed and those SECfilings being a clue. But as for the actual date of application, I only see the date of official approval for uplisting in the SEC filings. I also read Redchip and Geoinvesting and a lot of other websites, but I've never seen a public website showing the news each time someone applies -- I have googled up and down and searched NYSE and NASDAQ and don't see applications received anywhere as public knowledge.
Sorry about the humor. I didn't suspect you as being a pumper FWIW, I just try to drill down message board disucssions to identify the underlying factual sources since so much of what's posted is hearsay and many message boards are full of pumpers and bashers. GLTA
"it's public knowledge if you know where to look at"
You still didn't answer my question.
Traderfan, in the spirit of honest pumping, exactly what source of information do you have to substantiate that the listing app has been filed?
NEP filing Form 8K includes 2008 and 3 Qs of 2009:
http://secfilings.com/searchresultswide.aspx?link=1&filingid=7193154
This week I added 23 percent and 48 percent to my previous LPIH holdings. General sentiment is that uplisting of LPIH is going to come anytime now, since all the independent director annoucements are finished, the next big news will blindside those whose tanks aren't full yet. I'd rather be in at these prices than scrambling for a few shares as the price climbs almost a buck per share the very next morning after uplisting is announced.
I learned a lesson with LLEN.OB -- had heard their uplist was planned, but I didn't see how LLEN was any more special than the numerous other coal companies out there...boy was I wrong. Now I pay attention to the sheep that announce their plans before they leap over the OTC fence to the major exchange. I have 25 percent of the farm on this baby.
I stand corrected, I missed one of the names in the filing. Thanks for the info. So they are pretty darn close, just need that Form 3 and the blessing of the AMEX Gods.
If they did announce number 3, where is the announcement found? I only see 2 names listed in the link that I already knew about.
From what I read, they haven't completely qualified at 2$/share. The link to AMEX uplisting states that only applies for above $50M companies. But, here's the catch, according to AMEX listing requirements they need THREE DIRECTORS if they are greater than $25M, and they can get away with 2 only if they qualify under the small business definition with less than $25M.
Can someone tell me if I have counted incorrectly? The last SEC filing and forum responses indicate LPIH only has TWO DIRECTORS. So there will be time for another clue with an advance SEC filing before they can uplist, right or wrong?
My average basis is 2.18, but the difference between that and the current range of 2.6 to 2.11 is pretty slim and will be all but forgotten when positive news on Q revenue is released. Since the SEC filing from last Q caused a stir but the stock held resistance, I am not worried. It's tempting to feel some impatience with wanting to put that money to work faster somewhere else, but as they say, you can't time the market, and this stock is enough of a sure thing over the next 12 months that I'd reather be in with dead money for a couple months then miss half of the 50 percent upside that is pretty close to guaranteed unless the management decides to print free warrants for pretty girls again.
If Crane is now an asset, I guess it makes sense to do a little due dilligence. He has a company in MA and just last year moved to Beijing to open an office to focus all his efforts on china companies. SEC Filings, uplistings, IPOS, etc. are all his specialty it seems.
Link:
http://www.jcraneco.com/about.html
In response to the seeking alpha concerns, I am wondering if this message board really exists. Can we really tell the difference between posters who are secret spies from RedChip working in their boiler-rooms all day with a thesaurus trying to invent more marketing hype, or perhaps spies who own warrants and just want them to run up in value so they can sell, or perhaps real investors who just want everyone to recognize this company has real merits? All are in a sense manipulating opinion...Hey, wait, that last category includes me, LOL
spelling error, I meant to say "3-bagger", LOL. It means share price increases to 3 times the price paid.
If the uplisting and the forward 3.5 P/E both come true, we should have a 3-banger from the current price.
If non-cash charges are so irrelevant, then why did the accounting for stock warrants hammer down the other popular china oil play, Longwei Petroleum (LPIH) right after earnings came out this month. Yet, NEP is caught with 2 years of listing warrants as equities instead of liabilities. Shouldn't that an immediate effect on NEP's stock price like it did with LPIH? Or is that shock price drop waiting to happen when the revised filings are released? I do realize NEP has a longer history than LPIH and it's business sounds a little more involved than just filling up storage tanks, yet both are in a good market sector and positioned to generate lots of cash.
Does anyone have any insight why one stock can get hammered so much worse than another over this kind of issue?