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Yes, both $SPX and FAS continue Down.
I'll be on vacation for awhile.
Both $SPX and FAS continue Down at the 1600 (NYT) close.
$SPX intraday will be Up if it moves above 950.
FAS is struggling with resistance at the 10.20 region.
Let's see what the final hour brings.
$SPX and FAS (intraday model) continue Down, since yesterday. . . but, $SPX not by much.
"Going to rest for a few days until the price
vs the 200 DMA is clear."
I feel the same.
Will the 200 DMA region be support or resistance?
EOD, of course, both $SPX and FAS are Up.
Ok, so now $SPX is intraday Down, too.
$SPX needs a diet of financials to survive. . .we know that.
No food, no thriving.
FAS officially turned intraday Down about 1410 (NYT).
I'll take EW more seriously when 5 or more EW proponents (blind to each other) predict the market reliably and above "flip the coin" numbers for, say, 5 or 10 years or more.
Until then it's just another version of numerology for me.
I do believe the market is orderly and causal, just that it's beyond the skills of humans to predict as suggested above.
Like all things the market is fully caused. It's just that post-diction is a piece of cake compared to prediction.
Hence, nature (past and present events) has caused me to be a trend follower/tracker. I strive to tag along.
Even then there are enough goofs to make me feel humble.
My intraday model is set to sell euphoria, so exited about 15 min ago.
Watching now.
Is there evidence EW can predict market highs and lows consistently above chance level?
. . .or does it post-dict market moves?
;)
EOD $SPX and FAS: Up.
EOD model revised.
$SPX is moving Up with FAS.
FAS has whipped. (And may do it again.)
$SPX may whip, too, if financials continue to strengthen.
Both are now Down.
Will they whip?
Questions are forever.
$SPX and FAS are on the edge of turning lower intraday.
Will it happen?
EOD $SPX and FAS: Neutral.
Weekly: Both Up.
$SPX and FAS are now intraday Up.
$SPX was positioned for a rally about an hour ago but the financials didn't comply.
Both continue Down.
Hong Kong Up over 5% and US Futures mildly positive.
$SPX may turn Up sooner rather than later Thursday.
A video and a prediction / speculation by a trader regarding $SPX:
http://broadcast.ino.com/education/sp_500_17week_cycle/
FAS has joined the party. Now intraday Down.
Let's see if it whips.
$SPX intraday Down since about 1210 (NYT).
We are now in that part of the economic cycle where good news moves the market, sometimes like a hair trigger to start buying.
Consumer confidence is important, very important, given positive or negative consumer activity contributes about 65-70% or so to the economy.
Intraday, $SPX and FAS turned Up shortly after the opening today.
EOD trend: $SPX and FAS, Down.
Weekly trend: $SPX and FAS, Up.
TREND1, How do you decide on the dimensions and placement of the boxes?
Note once a box is entered the down or up trend may continue for some time, e.g., consider the spans about 17 February to 9 March or 16 March to 20 April 2009.
Both $SPX and FAS are now intraday Down.
So far, this is a "go no-where" rally.
Chart wise, intraday, both $SPX and FAS are still Up.
. . .but, I suspect, not for long.
Both $SPX and FAS turned intraday Up late today.
Will there be follow-through tomorrow?
Futures are Up at this time; Japan and Hong Kong are Down.
FAS has turned Down again.
The chart decided, did its job.
FAS turned Up about 1120 (NYT).
I'm skeptical this will continue, but I don't decide, that task falls within the chart's job description.
$SPX continues Down.
Although $SPX whipped earlier today, presently, both $SPX and FAS continue intraday Down.
$SPX has been intraday Down since just after 1500 (NYT).
Will it whip? Stay tuned.
$SPX and FAS continue Up, EOD.
FAS intraday turned Down about 1200 (NYT).
$SPX has an early warning of directional change, but is still Up.
Those who enjoy information, data and analysis will be drawn to Wolfram Alpha which launches this evening.
See the demo link referenced in the following post:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=37859048
Very impressive!
TREND1, No, I have not made the kind of comparison you did with BGU and BGZ.
My work with FAS and FAZ is short term, swings of 2 to 5 days, or, now and then, day trades.
I'm interested in those two because of the importance of the financial sector for these times, and the sizable momentum and percentage moves those two make. They're often at or very near the top and bottom of my watch list in percentage gain or loss for most of the day.
. . .and they both perform well in my intraday model, which is currently Up for FAS, but showing some signs of straining.
My inclination is to keep things as simple as possible. iHub has helped teach me that, since it abounds in over-analysis, some of it quite confusing for decision making.
I took a 14% gain in FAS today, since I'm not sure how closely I'll be able to watch tomorrow's action.
I go long FAS for swing trades, rarely day trade FAZ at this point in the (apparent) economic cycle.
I love those big percentage moves, especially up, but of course it works either way, IF one is on the right side of the market.
My impression is that bond and equities are both overextended here and due for a pullback.
I've traded CHY and PHK this year to advantage, but I could see each pullback 10% or more.
However, IF the recession ends this year, we could easily see a run of "buy the dips" going forward.
The past two months have shown how risky it is to be short (or long, eg., FAZ or BGZ).
The charts will tell the tale.
BTW: For my EOD model, XLF led FAS Up, turning Up on 29 April.
Thanks, TREND1.
I'm now flat regarding FAS. I also reduced my position in XLF.
For the EOD model, FAS was flat between 20 April and 1 May when it turned Up. I'm eager to see when the FAS EOD turns Down, officially.
Will it be today? Or is it going to be a wild period of "buy the dips" in the financials?