I am updating my staus.
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Hi Forinda,
Well as we know the Chinese gov would like china companies to challenge the world in alternative energy - they would also comitted to reduce the carbon intensity of Chinese produced energy. GCHT have some impressive MOU's I'm not sure if they are binding documents (others may know this) - I would say that *probably* GCHT will be a good story.
SIAF - we know that agriculture is the most important focus for China going forward - they need to be able to feed the people without importing food and they need the peasants to become richer to deal with disparity between the rich cities and the poor agricultural region. We also know that the food industry in China keep managing to posion their clients, not a clever move.
Assuming, as I would say with any company, SIAF is legitimate I think it will make money - they have given an EPS target - most companies just give a net income target - the point being that dilution is around the corner.
If GCHT story comes true it will do very well. SIAF looks like it has the numbers to back it up now - 80 cents in 2012 is an $8 stock at P/E 10 - 4 times your today money. If they are also still growing then perhaps they deserve higher P/E. Personally, I prefer SIAF now. But events could change this.....
Oh yes, the only wrinkle in the SIAF story is there is a big SIAF seller in a relatively small volume stock... the rumour being Bellmont (a financier) is selling stock... but hey that's why it's cheap at the moment. IF this is true and he clears out the way... we get the uplisting to OTC in March / April... things should start rocking... Investing is never easy
rich
SCOK - I bet you can see them but don't want to take them
Whose man enough to take on the Beast from the East!
rich
I don't know what I'm looking for - I put it into search engine and nothing returned.
I appreciate that this speculative stock is floating on thin air at the moment but I haven't read substantive critisim either - everything seems aimed to scare; rather than inform investors of the problems.
rich
CHTL - don't disagree some stocks are investments and some of them are dice rolls - this is the latter. A 4G network is so fundamental to China's development I can't see how they would not get it going... buy hey... life's full of surprises.
I suspect if someone started buying 10's of millions of shares it would be obvious the deal was on and would soon flash upto $3... dunno -that's my guess...
rich
SKBI - Oh I remember SKBI, was suddenly unappealing after already falling during the China slump. Appologies were given for the speed of response, due to illness, but the reasons ended up being sentiment rather than fundamentals - which was a change of tack from Geo - which seemed until then more about finding cheap stocks and holding.
The result was leeming like selling going on as people searched for news - this was just after CBPO and people were getting the two mixed up.
rich
CHTL - amending financing
- received $10 million from Isaac
They've changed when they need the cash - having staged the amounts rather than in 2 blocks. They also seem to have shared the amount evenly between the 2 investors.
CHTL Receivng Money...
Originally
By March 1, 2010, ChinaTel will have received $241 million, and the balance of $399 million by June 1, 2010
Now [2]
Under the terms of its SPA Amendment, Excel will pay an installment of $239 million by March 31; 2010 and the remaining balance of $80 million by December 31, 2010. Under its SPA Amendment, Isaac elected to accelerate its second installment payment of $10 million to March 5, 2010, instead of March 31, 2010 as called for under the original SPA. Isaac will pay an additional $20 million by March 31, 2010; $129 million by June 1, 2010; $80 million by September 30, 2010; and the balance of $80 million by December 31, 2010. The dates and amounts of each investor's installment payments were structured to meet the existing needs of ChinaTel's wireless broadband network deployment schedule.
Financers
Originally
Excel Era Limited $480 M for 160 M shares
Isaac $160 million for 53 M shares
Now
Isaac 106.4 M Shares
Excel 106.4 M Shares
[1] http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ChinaTel-Closes-US640-Million-prnews-3945653742.html?x=0&.v=1
[2] http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ChinaTel-Closes-US640-Million-prnews-3945653742.html?x=0&.v=1
CHTL - amending financing
- received $10 million from Isaac
They've changed when they need the cash - having staged the amounts rather than in 2 blocks. They also seem to have shared the amount evenly between the 2 investors.
CHTL Receivng Money...
Originally
By March 1, 2010, ChinaTel will have received $241 million, and the balance of $399 million by June 1, 2010
Now [2]
Under the terms of its SPA Amendment, Excel will pay an installment of $239 million by March 31; 2010 and the remaining balance of $80 million by December 31, 2010. Under its SPA Amendment, Isaac elected to accelerate its second installment payment of $10 million to March 5, 2010, instead of March 31, 2010 as called for under the original SPA. Isaac will pay an additional $20 million by March 31, 2010; $129 million by June 1, 2010; $80 million by September 30, 2010; and the balance of $80 million by December 31, 2010. The dates and amounts of each investor's installment payments were structured to meet the existing needs of ChinaTel's wireless broadband network deployment schedule.
Financers
Originally
Excel Era Limited $480 M for 160 M shares
Isaac $160 million for 53 M shares
Now
Isaac 106.4 M Shares
Excel 106.4 M Shares
[1] http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ChinaTel-Closes-US640-Million-prnews-3945653742.html?x=0&.v=1
[2] http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ChinaTel-Closes-US640-Million-prnews-3945653742.html?x=0&.v=1
BFAR Pros and cons
Pro
- Very Cheap 10 cent last quarter
- Growing - 28% growth targeted for 2010 & 2011
Cons
- Needs some cash (10m) to expand chain vs Market cap of 50M * pps
- Reverse Merger people had heafty slice and are probably a big seller that needs to be cleared
- Recent Resignation of Auditors - always adds question mark - might result in NT filing
-------------
8K with presentation
http://www.otcmarkets.com/edgar/GetFilingHtml?FilingID=6851279
Missing anything?
rich
VISN - transcript of cc
http://seekingalpha.com/article/191631-visionchina-media-inc-q4-2009-earnings-call-transcript
rich
BFAR - someone asking questions on yahoo... valueseeker? Doesn't he post on ihuB....
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_B/threadview?m=tm&bn=85875&tid=35&mid=35&tof=1&frt=2
1. In the Wall Street Transcript interview they said that the 360 new drug stores were aquired with stock.
But in the 10Q they say they were newly opened (with what money?).
2. Their inventories and Property, Plant and Equipment did not go up after opening/aquiring 360 drug stores? That makes no sense.
3. In their Company Profile they state:
"In 2008, the total revenue of BioPharm Asia’s China branches reached to $94 million USD, and $14 million USD generated in after-tax income approximately. Total 383 chain drug stores...
Yet in your 10q for the third quarter 2009 they give 2008 sales for the first nine months as only $51.8 million, and no drug stores before May 2009?
China is misread by bulls and bears alike
Balanced peice from FT... from 25th Feb
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/483333fe-224a-11df-9a72-00144feab49a.html?nclick_check=1
rich
I'll add it to my todo list...I've got a note that they are expanding the distribution? Is that right? You think its more than 100% undervalued?
rich
Right e'ho... I will talk to the IR again. No need to lie to investors is there?
rich
CNAM - diluted looks like 14.7 Million...
Just checked 10-Q after being PM'd - that 12M prolly not enough - strike was $5 hence not added to diluted in the last 10-Q.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1410711/000144878809000226/cnam_10-q3q2009.htm
rich
CNAM, Bogus...
Yes, that's probably a better way of approaching it... Q4 will be discounted until nearer the time...
12 M diluted is it? I had 10.. It's a wonder I make any money! Probably working out Q2's number and doing 4 times that would give a degree of security.
I assume the market will be looking for management to repeat their claims during the year / updating their capacity usage. They need to reassure the market that these volumes are standard. They also need to confirm that 2011 should be as least as good as 2010 - I'm impressed that one contract can take up 1/4 of capacity - I would have to bet that others will come.
They need us to have a clue about margins - as we know markets are pessimistic in valuations when given the option.
rich
CNAM... ok the contract begins March so for all we know they started work in March and did nothing for Jan and Feb.
The contract calls for the delivery of up to 23,000 metric tons of scrap steel per month for 10 months beginning in March of 2010.
Additionally, management anticipates reaching a full capacity run rate sometime in the fourth quarter of 2010.
They are doing 23K a month and doing the full capacity in Q4. Full capacity for the quarter will be 250K for the 1M a year device.
Q1 23,000
Q2 69,000
Q3 69,000
Q4 250,000
-----------------
FY 411,000
-----------------
That's full year 2010 of 411K.... by my maths. That's more than a 1/3 and anything that was told by IR previous is out of date. By my maths management have said they are going to do 4/10 ths capacity.
Additionaly, I don't see how you can ramp up from 69K one quarter to 250K the next. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some additional numbers above those during the year as they worked up to Q4.
rich
Indeed 35% when he phoned... buy now they are saying 100% Q4... how they get from 1/3rds to 3/3rds in the year I don't know but I think the 1/3rd information is now obsolute.
To be precise in my terminology I say run rate... so by Q4 of this year they will be running at $2.50 earings assuming 5% margins. so Q4 2010 + Q1 - 3 2011 they should earn $2.50.
Additionally, management anticipates reaching a full capacity run rate sometime in the fourth quarter of 2010.
rich
CNAM - no-one knows the margins but the base buying and selling scrap metal business is at P/E 10 $5 and in 2008 that had margins of 6%.
By the end of the year they think they will be doing $400 M in revenues - 5% of that is 20M net income run rate. I've got O/S of 10 M here so that's $2 + $0.50 ish earnings. P/E 10 anyone
So, if you hold on for the year you should be in profit assuming they execute the plan and assuming they are profitable - I've no reason to believe they are not profitable - even 2.5% is $1.50 in earnings.
I make no comment about what will happend during the day.
rich
Could be... but I always assume that the things they don't tell you in a PR are are neutral or negative - improved margins in this case wasn't mentioed. Still, I'm sure they've done the sums and the 50% volume will make up for it - could also be a more scalable solution?
I wish there were more agriculture plays like this to spread the risk! I'm still nervous about Pink status... will consider adding when it's OTC.
rich
SGZH - yeah I like the fact that they did there earnings on a reduced volume compared to 2008. If they can get 2008's volumes with 2009's prices... then that would be a great storm.
Risk... logistics of getting coal moved during winter + dodgey Q3. I like the risk reward proposition for this one.
rich
50% More cattle at lower risk... I assume the margins take a hit for having someone look after the beef, hmm, I mean cows - but does sound integuing.
rich
CNAM 400K premarket..
rich
SCOK SinoCoking believes it can acquire each of these targets at an attractive purchase price and without the need for significant outside capital, using internally-generated cash flow and its own common stock
I'm guessing own common stock means dilution of some sort?
CHGY - I didn't buy any as I thought I had enough coal ... turns out you can't have enough coal in your portfolio
rich
CNAM - teach me for not having pre-market!
SCOK - It depends if they do the consolidation in a timely manner that doesn't require additional funds, I guess. Any delay in getting the mines under it's control could see a drop in PPS, be it temporary, until they sort it out. Certainly, that was our experience with PUDA.
I was wondering why they can handle so many mines so quickly while PUDA only trying to handle 2 a year? I'm guessing it's because they just take control of them rather than upgrade them.
rich
Understood., but in affect they are diluting the value of their holdings. Changing inc dividend for lower PPS due to increased dilution. Ho hum.
Dividend does make it stand out though....
rich
Shougang Steel profit down 10%
They made a loss in Q4.. and blamed steel prices. Don't know what other steel companies have reported.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2010-03/04/content_9539310.htm
rich
In the presentation they talked about 9 million ish shares and 0 warrants...( page 22) but clearly they have warrants (others said 15 million). So is O/S 24 M?
rich
CCLTF - that was good powerpoint... would you say that their competitive advantage is the brand and perhaps some patents (their thin cermaics make only a couple of % of revenues).
Obviously, I like it more now it's gone up 20%! But that's me all over.. (no position )
rich
China’s staggering appetite for coal imports, illustrated
China is the yellow one on the graph. Basically, Europe is backing off coal for more natural gas. China is bringing on the Shanxi province again so near term there's pressure on prices but long term that yellow section is growing ominiously .
http://blogs.ft.com/energy-source/2010/03/03/chinas-staggering-appetite-for-coal-imports-illustrated/
rich
CAGC - has a competition moat - it's registered as a "Green company" getting green registered means going through a board of people - one of which is CGA's CEO - I don't think they are going to let lots of companies become Green listed... I think there's 4 China national companies (CGA, YONG, CAGC and some other one... can't remember).
Anyway, point is your not going to see large multinational compaines gobbling up the space. There's lots of mum and pop companies without the Green logo etc supplying fertilisers... these are the people that are going to lose out as China scales up an important industry, organic/green fertilizers.
rich
Or indeed why release a dividend policy if you need to raise cash?
rich
I don't doubt that it's legally enforcable - the IR put forward the idea that the important thing for the investors was that BSPM was moving towards uplisting.
From the investors point of view what's better AMEX now or NAZDAQ in a couple of extra months? I would go for the NAZ later as the returns are likely to be higher.
I haven't delt with IR firms much so I don't know if they are in the habit of selling you dreams or giving legitimate rationale. Either way they should clear it up for investors at the CC.
Personally, I prefer AMEX now over a 12% pentality Equally, either a reverse split or patience of waiting till the PPS criteria is met for NAZ would be better for the long term growth of the company.
rich
CCLWF / CCLTF - is sucess tied to the housing market? People move in and want new ceramics?
Just thinking if this is a risk? Or do I worry too much?
rich
Yeah, I haven't read the filings in a long time and forgotten. Clearly I need to include this on my spreadsheet.
Yes, it's all very well telling us in a timely manner the first take on results but you would hope they could get their story straight as well. I can think of lots of reasons for shortfall in revenue but would much prefer the management to put their ideas out; I guess we will have to wait with uncertainty.
rich
Ok, I haven't obviously haven't checked, Q1 was 21% - last year was I've got 21% for the FY. Do you agree that CKGT will be benefitting from a higher margin going forward or are there one time charges again?
rich
CKGT - the only thing stopping them geobarganing it last time was growth rate < 30% - well the guidance tops that so my guess is that it will become bargain.
rich
CKGT - yep indeed... interesting trading... at least they gave the "hope" of a better 2010 instead of waiting till the stock dropped like BSPM.
rich
Q2 margins were 22% and Q3 were 37% - this is explained with higher margin products so if they can get nearer to Q3's margin next year the income growth will be very solid indeed. I'll play with the numbers...
rich
Sounds about right... numbers were inline but expectations were higher. They do need to explain the drop in gross margin (other than chatting to someone on the phone) but they have the confidence to give net incomes for 2010.
I've got lots already though... hmmm....
rich