is... a buy and hold investor of dividend US and Canadian stocks
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cash (rough number). they are maybe weeks away from production and the chances of being immediately profitable are nil. They can barely make payroll.
Tech, according to that barter arrangement the plastic is NOT free.
If it were indeed free, then JBII should use free plastic as feedstock, and demand market rate for their product. You know, basic business school stuff; once you set a pricing precedent you may be expected to give all your other customers the same deal... this is a bad start for JBII.
three hundred thousand dollars..... that can be measured in weeks... and they are months away from production.
did you ask them if they were still getting paid?
seriously? ah.. when they operate at break-even for a quarter and demonstrate profitability or at least break-even operation, deliver on promises/ statements... ... and i regard the tape business as a promise having been made...
or if their catalyst is as wonderful as they say... but can it guarantee profitability? I don't think so..
and if I was promised a lifetime supply of Poutine (Unrestricted), that wold make a difference as well.
he has a long way to go... or alot of potatoes, cheese and gravy, depending on how you look at it.
or when I see him about to make the open ocean without having sunk, hit a reef, or lost power.
I never boarded the JBI Ship. I have been watching from shore. It has not made it out of the harbor yet, too many shoals... and not a very good chart. The whole crew should get free poutine. Poutine for everyone, I say!!!
I hope he can make payroll OVER the holiday. 300k??? rofl.
I think you have been working that pump too hard. Your tires are about to explode. Very embarassing.
to my mind it makes no difference if he included the information in the recent filing or not. I don't think there is a requirement to include this information in every filing and the fact that it is not there does not make the last filing untrue. SO there.
I don't know, I can't fathom it... (Hah... fathom? .. get it... hehe). No seriously I can't imagine what he is doing. Question is, are they paying him? maybe he just has restricted shares... lol...
I know... now what stock does that remind us of? LOLOLOL
what happened today with CABN is extremely interesting. It was the target of a Hotstocked.com Pump and Dump, with news released from management same-day. I have seen this before. The news itself is relatively meaningless and cannot be held accountable for 6M share volume. To my mind, it implies that management was involved in the pump.
Now we have a poster saying that the news is what drove the stock today and touting the stock.... who is right? I have been watching this newsletter for awhile and the timing is too suspect to not think that management was involved via the news. And the tout is trying to explain the upswing today as completely news-based and saying it is going to go higher. Too funny~~~!!!!
My impression of that deal is that it is really a situation where Heddle is there to outfit a ship when a P2O Marine customer materializes. That is to say, either JBI or someone else ponies up the necessary capital to actually purchase a ship. All Heddle does is provide the service to outfit the ship with the P2O equipment.
I think there is confusion that Heddle signed on to build a fleet of P2O ships or something. Not the case. This takes capital.
So the deal is in place, and will be utilized if and when a p2O ship materializes... nothing has changed since it was announced.
Anybody interested in Pump and Dumps should check out the action today on CABN (Carbon Science). Really interesting combination of classic pump-and-Dump, newletters, and day-trading.
to maintain the price at the current level?
I know... check out the Lightning Pick:
http://www.hotstocked.com/lightning-picks/
That came out today at Market Opening. IMO the news is meaningless. It gives legitimacy to the market action and plausible deniability to management. THey were obviously in on it with.
Wash trading??
usually the news is meaningless. What it means is that management was in on the pump. The news merely gives legitimacy to the stock action, it provides a reason.
the reason for the spike today is that this stock was the subject of a Lightning Pick from Hotstocked.com. Was there some newsÉ This happens usually to give some legitimate "reason" for the trading activity....
actually, IMO things did not go so well today, not much of a price spike...
I have never said he is not legitimate. He just does not know what he is doing. There is a difference. I don't know why he is pursuing this myself... some people get them selves so far into a corner they can't turn back.
URS? I have seen that tactic before with software companies back in the 90's. They used to align themselves with big consulting firms to enhance their reputation when in fact the consulting firm would have no interest in selling the software. Not that the software was bad, just not in their culture to do it, not the way they make money, and could even take away their business.
Speaking of which, have we heard from URS lately??
No it doesn't. It means exactly what it says and it says nothing about the blending site. That blending site required a C of A for it to operate as a blending site, and that C of A is going to be particular to a blending site that unloads and loads tankers and has to worry about emissions and vacuum systems, etc. It has no jurisdiction over a P2O system that has a stack and emits whatever from that process.
And it is a pretty obvious strategic move that JBI is only realizing now to locate it's plant on a site that has some kind of permitting. No doubt it is easier to upgrade a permit or amend it than to get a new one, i will grant you that...
Very conservative? Hardly. That matrix chooses to ignore Non-Product-related cost. All it assumes is the $10/barrel, or $15, whatever. He is burning 1M/month or /quarter... what about that? what portion of that will remain as non-product cost, not part of the $15/barrel? I would think quite a bit of it. Pro forma analysis is alot more complicated than that spreadsheet would have you believe. Most of it. And a P/E of 100? Please...
Agreed but their process is somewhat different and naturally takes care of this. I think because heat is not applied (catalyst instead) Weird but true. One of the longs would know. What you are saying about oxygen is totally true.
wrt this comment:
"I can agree. A reference point may be that refineries process crude and the difference between crude and gasoline/diesel is only a few dollars. Refineries wouldn't be doing it if they couldn't make a profit from those few dollars and they use heat. Although scale probably makes a difference. "
So you are saying that the cost of crude (to the refinery) is WTI and the output gasoline/ diesel is priced only a few dollars more? I actually don't know.
The explanation may be that the WTI is just the "spot" price. That means that most of a refineries purchases of crude are at contracted prices for large orders, basically as good a price as they can get (less than WTI). The spot market would only be used as needed or for small orders. So in that sense the cost of the input crude is actually much less than WTI, thus giving the refineries their profit margin. I found a reference on how the market works once, I could perhaps produce it.
During my only experience in a refinery I learned that the plant has to be built to exacting specs. If it is more than 2% off it may as well not be built. They take great pains to make sure everything aligns when building piping plant. If the alignment is off you get flow problems and like I said anything over 2% is a failure. So... profitability must be tight... it just stands to reason.
Thoughts?
well i guess my background gives me a model to work with. How else do you consider a multi-million capital investment? I worked out previously that for an investment of 2M the return (profit) should be 800k/year for 2-3 years for it to make sense (20-30% ROI).... that is the only way I know how to look at things... believe me the costs and revenue/barrel would be key in that analysis. The ROI/ Capital Cost is the bigger picture I believe.
I know that the cost of Oil Sands crude is between $20-$30 /barrel, and that is some of the most expensive crude you can get. So it puts the $10/barrel claim into some perspective. If it ends up being higher, like $15, it is still not that great, or else the oil companies would be doing that much better... bottom line.
What is your evidence that they WILL be profitable? Isn't it normal to adopt a "show me the money" approach when investing? There is NO evidence whatsoever that this company will be profitable outside of the very basic estimating done by the CEO that they can make oil for $10/barrel and his unsubstantiated claim that he can sell it for at least WTI-3. Outside of that, we have alot of confidence, and a really good lawnmower video.
I think you are asking the wrong question.
I have stated many times that this is a very basic misrepresentation. Pepple are looking at the number given for the P2O processor of 200k and assuming that that is the capital cost of a P2O implementation. That is misleading and wrong. It is a waste of time for investors to believe that number. Y ou areonly kidding yourselves.
Cost =
- Equipment cost (includes the 200k, but there is other equipment as well)
- Engineering (Islechem?) cost. There has to be some design work done.
- Construction cost. A contractor has to build it.
- project Management.
Using the 200k as a benchmark, upping it to 300k to account for ALL equipemnt, and applying percentages to the rest, I guessed 1-1.5 M.
you are saying that without any demonstrated knowledge of how the purchasing function works in a refinery. From my understanding they set up contracts with suppliers at the best rate they can looking years ahead. There would be zero unfulfilled demand.
Then, there is the "spot" market. This is the market for small quantities that fills in the gaps in supply when required.
Question is: when is it required? How often?
I don't know... but you can't assume such a rosy view either...
"Authorized" can mean that a security classification is required, which is something that can be done for anyone (it is just paperwork). Or, it can mean that JB is the only person that the customer trusts to do it.
If that is the case (the customer only trusts JB), then they are almost certainly wanting the interpretation of the data, not just the physical reading of the tapes. If that is the case, then it is not a viable business because it is reliant on one man..
I think the original poster posted that JB liked to do algorithms in his head. I have known many technical people like that. It is an attitude that gets in the way. Anyway, if that is the case it is either not a viable business or JB is keeping information to himself for whatever reason and not wanting to document algorithms.
I am curious what exactly JBI is being paid to do here. There was a post some time back that there were two parts to the tape-reading process; reading the tapes (getting the data off them), and interpreting the data on the tapes using algorithms. The poster also posted that JB, being the smart man that he is, did the algorithms in his head to decode the data from the tapes.
And we kow that JB is the only man "authorized" to read the tapes. Actually that stands to reason, seeing as it probably requires a Top Secret classification with the US government to interpret the data.
So I am confused here.
I think that it just a matter of reading the tapes and returning them on new media. NASA or the customer wold know what the data meant and be able to interpret it. I think the technical challenge is in the tapes themselves being physically unreadable, not that the algorithms for the data are not understood.
Possibly just the act of reading the tapes requires security classifications...
or JB is playing games.
Anyway, if it is just a matter of gettign the data back to the customer it seems as if this should be a viable business without regard to authorizations.
So what is the customer paying for; step 1 or step 2....
This is the misconception by this board. The seeking of a permit has been a very effective diversion. The implication has been that somehow this is the DEC's fault and that JBI has been waiting on them. Not true... gaining a permit is simply a part of the overall plan. It requires initial consultation to understand requirements, then scheduling of a test, then issuance of permit.
The money has been spent on other things, of which this board knows precious little about. Some things came out on the last CC about tweaking, and optimizing the process, about unforeseen technical issues, etc.
This effort, which I would decribe as Detailed Design/ Prototyping, has not been communicated to investors. ALl that has been comunicated is roughly "we are waiting for a permit and it is difficult to schedule 3 parties, JBI, CRA, and the DEC". That and colecting data. I believe that that is missing the bigger picture as an Engineering/ Design project.
So your post is not really true in saying that they have spent 7M waiting for a permit. It was spent doing Engineering/ Design work. What has not happened is the clear communication of an end goal and meeting that end goal. The only end goal which was communicated was getting some permit, not an on-stream production date. And if the end goal was a permit, and that permit could have been obtained easily in Ontario all along... well I would say that the long-range and even medium range planning is suspect.
Exact a mondo. Clear as a bell. This project has been run without a clear plan as I can see it. It is investigative and exploratory.
And I don't believe they will get loans at 6%. That is pretty ridiculous when you think about it. How would you come up with a reasonable rate of return for an investor? What about thinking a reasonable ROI? One would expect 20-30% over 2 or 3 years . So that is a reasonable rate for a debt investment and that is what investors should expect. Say 15% - 20% to allow for some return for JBI. But 6%? Forget it. And that would require a clear plan that would involve construction of the last two units anywhere... and permitting.
If it were me making the investment, I would demand a contract that allowed for some kind of payment fixed to progress; in other words some up-front funds, followed by release of funds upon successful completion of major milestones like; erection of Unit #2, Erection of Unit #3, Permitting, and of course a full business analysis of the profitablility of the business. This is just normal business practise and fits with what I have seen in the public and private sectors. The public sector is very stringent on this. In my last place we had a budget of available funding over a multi-year period. That funding was released in smaller increments based on the submission and approval of a detailed plan for execution. And of course, once funding is released periodic progress reports were required... milestones achieved/ not achieved, or else further funding withheld.
Seems reasonable to me. Also, it is reality... I don't think JB would like it.
20-30% is a typical internal hurdle rate for project approval based on my experinece.
we seem to be having a misunderstanding. I guess that that post was on another board, and since I cannot post there I choose to respond here.
But, The blending plant was bought and painted in the summer. The initial procesor in NY was built this year, so the commercialization of it is on the table NOW.
so how is it that the process that I am referencing happened before i showed up?
This is from another board:
"I particularly liked this one. . .
The entire site was repainted to conform to the latest fuel blending site standards and safety standards.
Well big-guy what do have to say about that Mr. I'm-an-expert-in-everything?"
Well... 2 comments (assuming the comment is there in the filing). First of all, that means I was basically right. I don't know what the proper colors are, but I did know that there had to be some reason beyond allowing JB to ride into the haze leaving investors to defend the blending site whilst painted in the most offensive glaring colors possible. Note that the question was asked what the colors should be, and there was no response.
Another possibility: JB reads this board and realized that it is a good question, and thereby is seeking to explain the somewhat bizarre color scheme. Outlandish I know... but what about the other statement about the use of photography:
"The 20MT processor is being meticulously assembled and each assembly process is being photographed and logged so that the processes and procedures for the final operating unit can modeled, independently tested, and the put into production quickly where plastic discards are readily available"
I am about the only one who has posted about the process by which he commercializes this technology:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=55537617&txt2find=drawings
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=55373900&txt2find=drawings
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=53102810&txt2find=drawings
So am I just right, or does JB get his ideas from this board? Makes one wonder...
and no I did not eat crow for breakfast... more like steak and eggs....
You have to keep them in separate COLOR bottles, much like the piping.
Yes. This discussion of permitting has made me realize that when I was at that industrial gases company they located alot of their plants on customer premise and the reason is likely that the permitting is easier, because the customer already has permits. I will be speaking with my former managment soon, I should inquire about that.
And isn't it true that lots of P2O companies have their equipment on landfill sites, presumable for the same reason.
semantics? The Permit issue was first highlighted at the AGM, was it not?
You are right, data is data... but cross-border??
Relocation vs new build is a classic part of the "Alternatives Analysis' phase of any engineering project analysis. The poster pointed out that units 2 and 3 did not need to be disassembled, simplifying things alot.
However, that does make a bit of a waste of Unit #1, don't you think?