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thanks for your posts december
it is nice to have more experienced investors here
i noticed you're from canada, perhaps you bumped into wwat when QK was up there touring with the governator...
also in the future, to build board credibility, it is helpful to post links or provide more details to validate your info... thanks.
West,
I tend to agree with you when thinking about this, though either value is fine by me cuz I can wait another year if needed. I actually plan to cut only 10% loose each year based on what I know thus far.
One important note is that they project to be making 450 mil per year at the end of 2008, not necessarily 450 mil IN 2008. Not that it really matters too much, it's great either way! But it may delay the rise to a buck slightly... jmo.
thanks ITguy, that was great of you to post the real deal! concrete evidence always good on a webboard, the more the better
who's ready for another great week??? i know i am!
yeah, you are right... great point.
i certainly hope they won't need 600K a month to operate, but who knows how big they'll get and where they'll be in a few years??? =D
no apologies needed! it was a very interesting observation and i'm glad to have been able to think more about the math, it's really fascinating.
Shinebox,
Okay, I thought about it some more and have concluded the revenue growth shown is indeed exponential. Yes, the revenue value of a series of points over equal periods is a constant multiple of the previous value. This is the case even when continuously compounded interest is used. A linear growth curve would not have each point being a multiple of the preceding point over a given period; rather, it would be a constant added to the preceding value. In our case, the revenue gained in each period is increasing considerably.
Again, I may be missing something, so please correct me if I'm wrong. Thanks again for your feedback.
yes, shinebox, that is an intersting relationship from one number to the next
but if you plot the numbers versus time (months), the exponential nature of the curve can be seen.
you might be referring to something else though, so I'll think more about it and let you know tomorrow... it's off to work for me now... thanks for looking at it.
updated, proposed (verify it yourself before using it) model for swarm revenue estimate
Thanks Seeker
here is a revised model concept (PLEASE VERIFY BEFORE USING YOURSELF, I AM NOT A FINANCIAL EXPERT OR ANYTHING EVEN CLOSE, JUST BORED ON A SATURDAY MORNING).
let I = initial investment value
let x = fraction profit per month
let z = fraction withdrawn per month (i had to get a z in there!)
let Y = account value for a given month n
let R = amount withdrawn for a given month n
let n = number of months
The model is similar to before, but needs to account for the amount withdrawn
For the first month, n=1
Y1 = I*(1+x)(1-z) and R1 = z*Y1/(1-z)
For the second month, n=2
Y2 = I*[(1+x)(1-z)]*(1+x)(1-z)= I*[(1+x)(1-z)]^n
R2 = z*Y2/(1-z)
plugging this into excel for a four year period, assuming that (these are WAG's mind you)
I=$100,000
x= 0.15 (very conservative compared to values estimated on this board based on previous announcement.)
z= 0.02 (a total WAG that would probably vary over time based on company needs)
and monthly compounding
we find:
n----------Y--------------R----------Revenues per year
12-------$419,843---------$8,568--------$670,557
24-----$1,762,682--------$35,973------$2,815,286
36-----$7,400,499-------$151,031-----$11,819,785
48----$31,070,481-------$634,091-----$49,624,547
which is pretty good agreement with the value you mentioned for 2010. Important notes: R is a per month value (amount withdrawn at the end of each month); Revenues per year equals the rate of increase in account value per year based only on that previous month's performance (revenue from that month multiplied by 12) and includes both the increase in account value along with the amount withdrawn that month.
REMEMBER, THIS WAS BASED ON GUESSES ON MY PART WITH REGARD TO INITIAL INVESTMENT, WITHDRAWAL RATE, AND COMPOUNDING PERIOD. I THINK THE RATE OF RETURN IS CONSERVATIVE, BUT THAT IS MY OPINION.
hopefully this will give people a good tool (after you verify it yourself!) for analyzing future PR's regarding swarm
DO THE CALCS YOURSELF. I AM NOT A PROFESSIONAL FINANCIAL ANALYST OR ANYTHING CLOSE. THIS IS NOT TO BE TAKEN AS INVESTMENT ADVICE.
if anyone finds any errors in my logic or math, please post to the board... thanks!
woohoo! thanks milo. icing on a great week.
amazing how fast the bidding has changed, jumping from .0001 increments last week to .0005 increments (for the most part) now... it will be even more fun to watch when the increments are pennies!
have a wonderful weekend, and thanks for sharing your wonderful insights all. I've learned so much since being here and look forward to learning more.
OT: i had a physics teacher in high school who rode a harley (i think), and his license plate was FISMA :D he was a big guy, once came into my chem class, stood in front of the teacher and asked if any of us knew where our teacher was... bit of a joker, anyhow, thought you'd appreciate the humor since you like physics and harley's
good luck
that's reassuring, thanks for checking the calcs
as others have mentioned there are a variety of uncertain factors that will affect our rates of return as it grows, but pretty exciting stuff
now i am even more confused as to why the stock is trading at such a low price... i have a feeling the complexity of the language in the PRs makes it hard to understand
once those pr's are translated into numbers, look out!
til then, i'll try to accumulate!
thanks all for bringing me back into orbit, still planning to be in outer space with spooz though! :D
it will be interesting to see how the swarm project evolves with time, but it looks great for the immediate future regardless.
Imperial, sorry for the messy post... it looked good on my screen when i first posted it, but now I can't get it to look right
thanks Imperial, I would appreciate that!
so nobody raised an eyebrow at this post... ?
perhaps it was unclear... 250K invested today providing hundreds of billions in revenues in six years??? i'm still hoping for someone to challenge it because i just cannot believe the numbers, even though i'm pretty sure the calcs were correct. maybe those rates of return are just too lofty? but i based it on discussion from last night.
swarm revenue estimates (all my opinion and estimation, please do calcs yourself to check, thanks)
assumed 20% per month or 1% per day, which are pretty conservative based on last nights insightful discussion
variables defined in previous post linked above
Year n I x Y Y annual
compounding monthly
1 12 250000 20 2.2E+06 2.2E+06
2 24 250000 20 2.0E+07 1.8E+07
3 36 250000 20 1.8E+08 1.6E+08
4 48 250000 20 1.6E+09 1.4E+09
5 60 250000 20 1.4E+10 1.3E+10
6 72 250000 20 1.3E+11 1.1E+11
1 12 1000000 20 8.9E+06 8.9E+06
2 24 1000000 20 7.9E+07 7.1E+07
3 36 1000000 20 7.1E+08 6.3E+08
4 48 1000000 20 6.3E+09 5.6E+09
5 60 1000000 20 5.6E+10 5.0E+10
6 72 1000000 20 5.0E+11 4.5E+11
compounding each trading day
1 260 250000 1 3.3E+06 3.3E+06
2 520 250000 1 4.4E+07 4.1E+07
3 780 250000 1 5.9E+08 5.4E+08
4 1040 250000 1 7.8E+09 7.2E+09
5 1300 250000 1 1.0E+11 9.6E+10
6 1560 250000 1 1.4E+12 1.3E+12
1 260 1000000 1 1.3E+07 1.3E+07
2 520 1000000 1 1.8E+08 1.6E+08
3 780 1000000 1 2.3E+09 2.2E+09
4 1040 1000000 1 3.1E+10 2.9E+10
5 1300 1000000 1 4.1E+11 3.8E+11
6 1560 1000000 1 5.5E+12 5.1E+12
more reason to hold long i guess, these rates of return are unbelievable... esentially providing an order of magnitude increase in revenue each year
perhaps i did something wrong, please check and let me know, thanks
Okay, haven’t thought about this problem for a while and only have a minute to do it, so someone please correct if wrong
Let x = fraction gained per month (i.e., % gain divided by 100)
Let n = number of months
Let y = yield
Let I = orginal investment
First month, n=1
Y = I * (1+x)
Second month, n=2
Y = [I * (1+x)] (1+x) = I*(1+x)^2
The formula I come up with is Y = I * (1+x)^n
You could do this with days too, as long as you estimate x in those terms, which would get you closer to continuous compounding. sorry, no time to do a swarm example right now.
the launch is not the only pr that might come out, there are other prs that could be made at any time that could drive the price up
i might buy more, but no selling here
points taken, but i still feel that selling too early, esp at these levels, is a big mistake based on what the company is projecting
who needs the money that badly (that is investing in pinks to begin with)? I just think the cost of selling is too high at this point for it to be reasonable, especially since we don't know when all the action will take place... as this last week exemplifies
jmo
(edited) even better, 450 mil at end of 08! that is from the board up top.
SpoozToolz is projected to provide revenues of over $3 million by year-end and over $450 million yearly by end of 2008. Paul Strickland, CEO said the projections were intentionally conservative. Darryl Dennis the Chief Marketing Officer said he needs to capture only 1% of the target market to achieve projections.
-----
450 million x 0.5 (earnings/rev) / 1.5 billion (O/S) x 20 (P/E) = $3 per share
and that's BASED ON their conservative estimate! of course, the earnings/rev ratio was an estimate on my part, as was the p/e, but I think they are reasonable. Software companies often have an earnings/revenue around .27 if I recall, but most of that is due to advertising costs, which I think is not representative of spooz.
The P/E could be lower, but probably higher since it is a "new" company.
all my opinion, do your own calcs.
so why would someone sell this stock anytime soon?
lurker, thanks for bringing this info to the surface again... compelling for new buyers to go long
i think the latest numbers are actually 450 mil for the end of 09, which i think was disclosed after the TT deal... please correct me if I am wrong (anyone).
and in two years when I still have most of my shares! ;D
only 150K, my funds are a prob a bit more limited than most
scottrade
flippers on dial up connections:D
i hit the ask and lucked out, got some more at 0.0065, averaged me up to .0031 now... i know i said before that i had bought all i could afford, but it's kinda like my mom's lasagna, just can't get my fill!
mo, you'll be lucky if it drops back any
closed yesterday at the day's high for a reason
1.5 bil o/s
450 mil projected revenue in 2-3yrs
do the math
dollar plus share price is definitely possible in a year or two.
seems to me like you're trying to induce a premature pullback to get more (some) shares
you obviously know a lot about the company and have probably done the math already
prob some people trying to bring the price down this morning... start with high bid until just before market opens to keep vol low, then drop bid at opportune moment
shouldn't work unless they've got a seller in cahoots willing to give up shares at that low bid... either way, shouldn't last long, even if they succeed
Milo, sorry, i wasn't very clear... I was hoping to start a discussion on "income" vs. "net income" for a software app of this magnitude. I definitely trust Paul's estimates for revenue, but I don't think I've seen a concrete statement with regard to how this translates into earnings. It seems to me like spooz does a nice job in being efficient with product placement, advertisement, so I imagine the profits will be high.
gm all,
while waiting for launch, can someone with experience in the software industry talk about spooz revenue vs. spooz earnings and some ballpark estimates?? only if you have time and are twiddling your thumbs waiting for launch of course. thanks. i would be interested in learning more and think this topic is attractive to potential investors. from past posts, i've seen ~50-75% as a general number.
thanks.
lakers, dilution is over, so you can stop hoping and start realizing! This has been discussed on the board already. Allie, if this post has not been placed in the "important/notable posts" section above, it may be good to add it when you get the time. thanks.
Basically, Paul stated dilution is over for the foreseeable future, which is great news.
What is still generally uncertain is how financiers will play their shares or if they've all been sold already... from our recent share price increases, it seems people are generally holding.
anyhow, it's going to be a great week.
i plan to make my preliminary sell decisions after i see the forthcoming news... i am going long on this one though
based on what i know so far, i'm planning to sell 10% of my current holdings each year... partially for tax purposes, but mainly so I don't miss out on the explosive growth to come
when i look at future share price estimates, it's not worth getting my original investment out anytime soon (i averaged about 0.00275). I'm hoping my first 10% sell will be above ten cents per share and dollars for the next nine!
ONly time will tell... looking forward to a great week.
also, i am a young and inexperienced investor, so any criticisms of my approach are welcome. thanks
looks like people are trying to fiddle with the price, but no luck yet... i'm seeing no asks... interesting
=D just being conservative
conservative calcs based on conservative estimates by Spooz... so an extra decimal is certainly possible for the share price
if the product is the big hit we are expecting, it will be interesting to see what kind of acceleration that speed of Z car has!
i have a feeling though that my calcs are a bit conservative based on what I've read on this board, particularly the post from fedfunz
by my calculations, this was an average day for the next two year period...
hey fedfunz,
i thought you weren't going to post until after the launch!!!
i'm glad you decided to post, but out of curiousity, any reasons? perhaps just uncontainable excitement?
ok, it's official, i've bought all the spooz i can afford
i even sold some of my other favorite stock to buy more =D
i'm bidding at .0032 and not getting hits yet
thanks for the post fedfunz
i'm hoping to get more shares at this price! just freed up some more funds, didn't think i'd be able to do it before the launch, so i'm excited that it hasn't happened yet- sorry to all who are waiting of course