Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
They won't miss a beat on the promotional choo-choo. There is money to be made for the nimble but I prefer substance.
The smart play would have definitely been to split 50-50 share distribution after the announcement. The junior markets are not an equal game and clearly the stronger interest was on the FOS side. I don't understand as it was clear that Baltic was the better value. Knock number one on management.
Yup. I raised the issue to IR and was met with silence. FOS got the better end of the deal.
Mmmm, this one strong like bull.
I added a couple of traders back but won't get what I wanted for this run. That is why I never go all out even if I *think* I know what is going to happen. It will test at some point though. Law of nature.
I certainly hope so Red
But not from these guys. I was approached by the IR for RAY and UTUC due to my involvement with another private board and let's just say I would not leave my wallet or my daughter alone in a room with these chaps.
I do expect to see some new teams move into the potash realm but the way I would like to see it is the same way Matysek entered, after being bought out of his previous company successfully.
These guys are scammers
Raytec was supposed to turn into a uranium company but went to sleep with investors money for several months and came out with nothing. Now they are ambulance chasing the fertilizer sector. Maybe they make the play this time but research their past as well as UTUC.OB and LRG.V before committing funds.
They will come.
I talk to a number of speculative investors on a given week and only a small few have taken positions in the juniors ferts so far. I know a lot are watching but skeptical which is par for the course. POT's earnings will help more than his swipe at start ups will hurt. The biggest pain is the dreadful undercurrent of the markets as a whole. Until the broad panic and selling abates we are all swimming upstream.
We are in a week part of the cycle it would appear so further price erosion is likely. I entered this correction with a solid core holding so while I would rather go "to da moon" I am using weakness to my advantage. I have put on one set of traders in KCL and have 3 or 4 more trades to make if it keeps going down to the 200 Day EMA. I have missed so far on ALM.V but think I will get another kick at that can. I did get some more RWD.AX at A$.45 as well. It would appear that at least Q108 is going to be tough if not Q2 as well. I know of nothing to do but plant seed for harvesting in Q3 and Q4.
He is definitely using the bully pulpit but I think he is in less of a bargaining position than he would like everyone to think he is. When it comes time to add resources these juniors have snapped up all the property that he should have been snapping up if he had vision. He (or one of the big three) will be paying up for that same property. That is my bet anyway.
I have read this several places. He doesn't want their prices bid up when he decides to buy them out (inevitable for good deposits.) These guys don't get to the top by being stupid.
This may go further too. Real hot markets overshoot. I am painfully long but not as much as I was at the peak. I will be adding on this crash but not today.
He is pumping the big boys though. I don't think you would see him mention any of the junior plays at this stage. When he does...
I will keep laddering in if it goes down. If it goes up I will probably just sit tight. I am happy with my exposure at this level. I am not a momo guy at all. Every time I chase I get burned.
Thanks earth.
Hey earth...
Is there anywhere to have discussion on Reward? I am having a hard time understanding this one and would like to be in the loop a little more. That is harder to do up here when their is no NA listing so few holders.
TIA
Added back a little ALM.V too. Got a 10% discount to my mediocre sale price so I guess that is OK. That wasn't my intention but my certainty level of a drop to the 200 isn't that high. We will see if it was smart or not.
I added back a small slice of KCL this AM. I still think odds favor a bigger consolidation but I am not sure about the NOW part of it. Maybe spring instead?
You are right about EMA vs. SMA. I always use the former which is where these things will most likely need to go to rest on occasion. I would define that as once a year when they get too extended. Is that now ow in the Spring. That I don't have an answer for but they are creaking a little here so caution for folks that like to trade is warranted. The folks with the temperament for long term trading can really just turn the monitor off and go do something more worthwhile. Personally I find that difficult. I also couldn't agree more about the fundamental underpinnings of the sector. They look bright as can be with only a horrific worldwide recession or depression dampening that. If you were in UEX.TO for a 10 bagger at $3.00 we were buying in about the same time. Do you remember the Spring correction in 2004? That was wicked and JNR, IUC, and UEX took a real beating.In the end that one only went back to the 200 Day EMA though. In 2005 it was worse. Still one could have timed those corrections horribly and bought the absolute tippy top in 2004 and they still would have made excellent money over the long haul. We are likely in a parallel time to that for the baby ferts right now. Anyway my point with all this isn't to comment on the fundies in any way just to say even with strong fundamentals you can see wicked corrections that test even the most resolute. I have seen it too many times to shrug off. Makes little difference for the patient but man can those corrections be trying.
Yep so is mine. A lot of times when I try to practice better cash management I end up leaving way too much on the table. Still looking for that balance.
Can happen for sure. I tell you though I would not want to own the chart you posted if for no other reason than the nasty divergence between price and MACD. That looks like losing momentum big time to me. I have traded some amazingly strong markets and I think it is a safe generalization to say they revert to their 200 Day MAs once during the year. There are always exceptions but I don't try to play exceptions to probability. With all that said I think the more likely time for this to happen is going into the late spring. These things have had a big run though and the sentiment was pretty crazy bullish. I would not use the B word like RocketFred because the fundamentals behind these little fellows are very supportive even at the their recent highs. They may have been pricing in success a little too far in the future but I see no reason to think this stable of juniors will not succeed.
Dunno, the timing doesn't fit and that is the one thing that I wonder about. TA says it needs to reset though. Look at that MACD. I tend go fundamental for stock selection and technical for entry/exit. TA says exit or hold. The market conditions are making decisions difficult though. Others?
Well do they or don't they?
Not a bad recovery from the lows today. Maybe a bump in the road before a real correction in late spring. They will correct at some point but the crucial element is when. What do we think of the action today?
Timeframe is open but it could come quickly the way these are moving. ALM ducked below its 200 Day in August 2007, BLR tested it twice in the same time frame, and ISX tested its 3 times in August-September. The 200 Day MA is a generalization but all strong stocks I have followed seem to go there when they retreat. I admit being tempted by KCL today.
The 200 Day is magnetic in all but the strongest cases. This could be the exception but I am betting it is not. I want to be way overweight again if it reaches that area.
Good on ya man.
I had some for a while but let it slip through my hands unfortunately. One of those bonehead moves. I have a good position in Reward and a lesser position in Legend thinking that an awakening to the situation down under could be explosive. Maybe some winnings would afford me the opportunity to finally visit your beautiful country.
Think it can drag Reward upwards too? Please?
Red: Subtle as a punch in the neck.
Pump, pump then bash. You are pretty shameless. I have sold my traders as I stated a while back and am waiting for a correction that should come to replenish. All the while I hold a solid core in case I am wrong. I think it is only fair to state ones position but to post incessantly to benefit your book is not in the spirit of the discussion I have seen. Just another opinion from the ether.
Thanks for the detail.
It does seem a bit different from Uranium mining in this manner but the general principals are clearly the same. It will be interesting to watch how quickly KCL can get this moving. The faster they can move successfully the worse Anglo's decision will look. Too bad really but these plays all evolve in their own way. (Still good and long Anglo as well as KCL though.)
Nice detail work.
For those of us who don't comb over releases it is nice to have the plan laid out plainly. Thanks for taking the time. You seem pretty knowledgeable so I want to throw out a question that maybe you can field: Is there a difference between ISL/ISR as used in US and Kazakh uranium mining vs. solution mining for potash. I did very cursory reading on this a while ago and it seemed that solution mining potash might imply different things. Any knowledge you can share in this area?
No single board moves share prices but there is definitely operation that goes on across all the boards. Some lower end IR firms will spam the message boards with sunshine (or dire forecasts depending on the desired direction) and some of the smaller penny operators do the same. I have grown accustomed to watching for cross posting and new aliases specifically to determine if something is going on in this manner. It is certainly not foolproof but can be an indicator. In the end this is not the modus operandi of the type of folks behind KCL and I was likely over zealous in my characterization here. I am kind of a contrarian's contrarian though and when everybody is whistling and high fiving I usually am more inclined to hand wringing. I do appreciate all the information that is shared here and will try not to be a wet blanket. 2007 rocked in the AG sector and I think even better times are ahead. I am not as sure about the real short term here but I am not inclined to try and play it cute either. Maintaining a nice core holding so I will be happy if we roll from here. I would also be happy to add at lower prices if they come.
Took a small position in LGDI
Went through their December presentation and it does play well to the speculative mindset. Have some questions in to IR as well and will post their reply here if it comes.
Sorry for mangling your name too.
I really do think KCL is emerging from the pack here and honestly don't understand API.TO's valuation at this point. Their are tons of intricacies to valuing deposits and early on many of them are unknowable. The largest deposit in the world isn't wort $1M if it is uneconomic. I don't think we will find that to be the case with any of the Athabasca based plays as I think the early stakers got the premium properties that will prove to be the best of the known deposits as this bull evolves. The relative merits right now come down primarily to size and depth. As they get closer other metrics will become better known. It is good to spur on the discussion with comparison. We all have to be aware that there is no way to ensure apple to apple comparisons yet. My limited knowledge and view does have me leaning towards Potash One with all current factors considered.
Stockhouse.ca
They used to be worthwhile at least in a contrary indicator kind of fashion but anymore they are much more signal than noise.
Lowdpop
Again no offense meant. I don't know anything about you except your public profile info and that is certainly not a great measure of a man (or woman.) One thing I would throw out though is the fact that I have seen this analysis on no less than a half dozen boards this morning including the boards for the comparison companies. The staunch supporters of those companies are likely going to view that a little unfavorably so don't be surprised if you raise a few eyebrows (and maybe a little ire.) In the end it matters not as I agree with the main point of your analysis which is that KCL offers the best value of the group here.
No offense folks
But when new aliases show up and cross post glowing price comparisons it is more likely to support price that is no longer rising on its own. You never know in these markets but I would be more worried about distribution here than relative valuations or the price getting away from me. I am still long a good core but all my traders are gone. I am not a seller here but not a buyer either until I see what shakes out. Long term I agree this is a great play and maybe the best of the fertilizer juniors now. Short term I think the risk is pretty elevated.
Joe Gutnick
I spoke to my friend on Joe Gutnick and he had quite the story to tell. Sounds like it started with success at a deposit called Bronzewing followed by a career with a fair amount of promotion and a bit of controversy as well. He sounds like he would fit in well with some of the Howe Street elite. Bottom line to me is that it sounds as if this guy knows what it takes to be successful but you probably would be ill advised to leave him in a room alone with your wallet. Is that a fair conclusion or do you think he is being painted in too negative a light? None of this bothers me overly as the same things have been said of Giustra, Telfer, Friedland, et. al. and one can make considerable money with them as long as situational awareness is maintained.
Not me.
Not an Aussie but pay a bit of attention to your markets. I have a friend who is a long time broke for Macquarie who will often lend me flavor for your markets. He helped me with research on Reward and sent me a writeup by Shaw.
I have not heard of Gutnik before but see he has been there for a little bit now. I need to develop a timeline but it does look like he arrived after the business switching mentioned before. Do you have any thoughts as to why they would grab a US OTC shell as opposed to taking an ASX listing?
Thanks for helping to develop the story on this one. I would really like to add another play to my stable and am getting closer on this one.