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Looks like Hancock stepped up and bought shares.
https://ir.avidbio.com/node/20596/html
Looks like document date is 12/13/2023. Anyone know did he have 30 days to report? Why so long to report?
Oh no, did Nick forget to kiss Larry's ring?
Now we know who controls the share price of every stock in the universe lol
including Avid.
Found this post about Avid very interesting on stocktwits. Did some research on Codexis's ECO Synthesis platform. Could this be a direction for Avid in 2024? We'll see?
https://stocktwits.com/valueforme/message/556316928
How can CDMOs succeed in 2024 and beyond?
Great Webinar for Avid's commercial team. Nick, please forward to Matt!
https://www.evaluate.com/thought-leadership/multimedia/how-can-cdmos-succeed-2024-and-beyond
Enjoy! Happy New Year and hopes for success for Avid's commercial team in 2024!!!
I remember back in the PPHM days we financed our drug trials for Bavi by selling shares through the ATM and diluting everyone's equity position. When anyone asked why we didn't borrow money instead of dilution of shares we we're told that's just the way early stage pharma companies do financing of drug development.
Now we're being told early stage drug development is only done by borrowing money and interest rates are too high so we are not getting orders???
Are high interest rates an excuse for poor sales plan execution? Something to ponder
The reason we are around $6-7 instead of $16-17 or $26-27 is because we have a lackluster commercial team that has underperformed during the expansion period. Sold $35mil(8.75% of capacity) last quarter and we have a 191mil backlog going 5 quarters forward (less than 50% of capacity) So we are now paying full expenses to run half full resulting in a loss.
Manufacturing organizations have never been good at sales but I am worried we have a culture problem with the commercial team.
Title's of the 5 or 6 members are all Senior Directors??? Their boss Chief Commercial and CEO praised them in the CC for "another successful quarter selling 9% of capacity for the quarter??? If that's success we are in big trouble. One excuse after another for not having business lined up and ready to go when manufacturing was completed.
This Commercial Team has to step up and fill out the capacity fast or Nick should bring in people with the right relationships in the industry that can do it!
TCLN if there's enough space on the tombstone
Hi eb hope your doing well. Englander is not new but I think his position in the new 13G filed Dec 12 2023 is. Below are the only 13G or 13G/A's on Edgar.
https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=0000704562
His companies took a position on 1st half on 2020 and reported it July 16, 2020 Share price was around $5-7 per share. A year and a half before the share price jumped into the $30's Oct 2021. As a hedge fund here to make money I believe Englander's companies would have sold some or all of their holdings at a nice profit. Now has taken a new or increased position in Avid.
Also something to think about that his companies are known for is: convertible arbitrage (taking advantage of price differentials between a company's stock price and convertible bond or stock warrant price)
13G JULY 16, 2020
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/704562/000131924420000101/CDMO_SC13G.htm
Integrated Core Strategies (US) LLC 2,828,890
Integrated Assets II LLC 163,101
ICS Opportunities, Ltd. 394
Millennium International Management LP 163,495
Millennium Management LLC, Millennium Group Management LLC, Israel A. Englander 2,992,385
13G/A DEC 31 2020
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/704562/000131924421000021/CDMO_SC13GA1.htm
Integrated Assets II LLC 651,711 ===> Integrated Core Strategies (US) LLC
13G DEC 12 2023
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/704562/000131924423000064/CDMO_SC13G_Dec2023.htm
Integrated Core Strategies (US) LLC 3,200,730
Millennium Management LLC, Millennium Group Management LLC, Israel A. Englander 4,595,027
Our new shareholder Israel Englander is a very interesting person. Looks like he has many friends in the healthcare industry?
https://news.weill.cornell.edu/news/2023/12/transformational-gift-from-israel-englander-to-expand-weill-cornell-medicine-research
Very wealthy also
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-03/billionaire-israel-englander-bought-paul-allen-s-french-villa
Welcome Izzy!
Or until the sales team learns how to sell out available capacity.
Oct. 28, 2021 the day before we were added to the S&P smallcap 600 we traded 13,750,000 shares
I was disappointed in the Q2 numbers just like everyone else. I also heard all the Optimistic things in the future. If top management is so optimistic about the future for Avid and the PPS today, would you think all top management will be placing orders on the open market for some cheap shares? The Q2 numbers are out and they are free to purchase now. All of their stock options are worthless at this share price. their RSU's are not worth much. If revenue. margins and profit(or lack of) remain as guidance suggests they will not get much of a bonus for FY 2024.
One would think we should see many 8K's in the next few weeks. It's time to really see how true Top managements optimism really is. IMO
The first one to go should be Matthew Kwietniak-Chief Commercial Officer and the entire sales crew(most of them have fancy titles like Senior Director of Sales and Business Development)
From what I see, they hang around trade shows and "expand the Avid Brand" I'm sorry but trade show are the most worthless form of Marketing known to man.
I think Nick has done a great job leading the capacity expansion. Matt was hired Oct 2021 and put together this worthless commercial team that has completely Failed. IMO
Wow what a dud!!
Just a thought that has crossed my mind. Was Nick brought in to build it for a predetermined buyer? The money to build it came very easily and cheaply?
The money ($125 mil)came from trading profits made going from $10 to $20 prior to being added to SP 600. Then selling 24 million shares week of Oct. 24 2021 for an avg of $30/share
A 100% buyout premium now is about ten bucks a share
Something to ponder over a few glasses of Cab.
Any buyout price would be determined by the buyer and some shareholders. Basically, the buyer and Blackrock, Vanguard, T. Rowe and State St. The profits will always be below industry standards if we're only half full. That's what teed me off about the "corporate presentation" it must have been done by "Captain Obvious" it didn't address the real issue!
This expansion was planned and executed brilliantly by Nick and others at Avid. They have had 2 Years to develop a sales strategy to quickly and efficiently fill the new capacity. Sales plans are executed with no excuses. There is either no sales plan or it's not being executed well. Matthew Kwietniak should get on the CC and explain the situation with no excuses. (and not that we're waiting for one big chunk of business and then everything will be alright) That's not a sales strategy!
If this sales situation is not corrected my fear is a year from now we will be looking at FY2025 revenue guidance is under $200 million and the big boys mentioned above throw in the towel and allow the company to go for single digits or low teens.
Basically everything in the 8K corporate presentation are things we already know. We know if the company increases revenue the margins will get better. We know is we fill capacity we will have a profitable company(at full capacity very profitable) WE NEED NEW BUSINESS!
Dec. 6, 2022 our FY 2023 revenue guidance was $145-$150 million
One year later as of today before the CC our FY 2024 revenue guidance is $145-$165 million
I look on Linkedin and most of our 6 or 7 members of our commercial team have been on board more than a year.
If Matthew Kwietniak Chief Commercial Officer is not on the CC this afternoon explaining how Avid's sales team will move forward and fill the capacity, I will be very disappointed.
I was in sales for over 40 years in good markets and bad markets but I was always expected to produce! NO EXCUSES!
They have had the Mammaliam CGMP expansion available for sale for over a year
We need a large increase in guidance to around $200 million and Q rev move towards $50 million fast or we are in deep do do. Short term.
We playing with fire here. If we don't increase rev fast we risk someone swooping in and buying us for a price nobody will like.
Oh yeah I forgot saying they use algorithms makes everything on the up and up. lol
Larry Fink et al. has the exact same information as us individual investors. wink wink
I looked back at trading Oct 21, 2021 when CDMO was added to the S & P smallcap 600 and it looks like 20+ million shares were traded over average in 4 days after the addition. It looks to me like some 20 million shares over average were traded 45 days before deletion was announced last Friday. The fact there was systematic continued controlled volume selling since early Sept. Looks to me like the "Big Boys" in the "Boys Club" get early notice to what companies will be deleted from indexes so adjustments can be made before hand. All in my opinion of course!
IMO a earnings report released on Tuesday shows more positivity and management confidence than one released on Thursday. Just my opinion.
Now with the increased volume of late, could there be something else brewing?????
I don't think anyone has talked about S & P small cap 600 rebalancing? With our market cap hovering around 300mil and S & P 600 requirement
being 850mil (could have been lowered to 750mil) could the anticipation of being kick out of the index be the "something else brewing" ?
Thursday earnings report... now we know why we're at $5
They are starting to show off the new VV facility.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ispe-greater-los-angeles-area-chapter_viralvector-cdmo-biotechnology-activity-7130911097674493952-KdKu?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
If Q2 results are decent I would also think we would see a flurry of buying by insiders after release. Looking at their stock awards and earlier stock options, the value of insiders equity has been decreased quite a bit.
Wonder if we will get a PR after the close announcing the CC for 2Q results on Dec 5th. Hope so!
I agree with you completely but there is a 3rd scenario. Our brand new manufacturing facilities and PD capabilities are worth a lot more to an established CDMO than the current market cap. I just hope another entity is not accumulating at this low price then make a low-ball offer. I just hope the large institutional holders aren't willing to get out in the teens. Or I have also thought someone could buy us and sell Mammalian manufacturing and VV manufacturing separately?
Time will tell
This is a great article about what's going on in the CDMO industry
2023: The Year of Re-alignment, Yet All Data Points to Green Shoots Ahead for 2024
An in-depth analysis of the health of the CRO/CDMO sector.
https://www.contractpharma.com/contents/view_online-exclusives/2023-10-23/2023-the-year-of-re-alignment-yet-all-data-points-to-green-shoots-ahead-for-2024/
Even Warren Buffett is cheating. With the big guys cheating know wonder us little guys can’t make a buck.
Yellow-bellyflyer hates Avid so much his literally shaking.
You can't answer the questions
Where will price be on Dec 5th?
2nd quarter guidance?
Backlog?
Maybe we should start saying Yellow-belly flyer?
Ok Mr know-it-all. If your so smart at what price will CDMO be at on Dec 5th the day that the 2nd quarter results are released?
I say $10/share what is your guess?
How about guidance? I say it's raised to $165mil-$185mil your guess?
Backlog over 200mil your guess?
Come on show us what you got!!!
I guess some will risk being out of the stock at release of 2nd quarter results if their trying for a tax loss.
I'm thinking the selling will continue until Friday. The last day to get out of CDMO then get back into it before the CC on Dec 5th.(30 day wash rule/early tax loss selling) The volume started to increase by 2-300,000 shares on Oct 11th and has continued. The price will linger in the 5's until Nov 13th with lower than average volume. On Monday Nov13th the price and volume will start to increase until Dec 4th when the price will be around $10 because the entity will be buying back the shares they sold Oct 11th - Nov 3rd. The Dec 5th CC results will determine the directions after that.
That's my guess
With the next CC with quarterly results anticipated to Dec 5th or around that date, would any entity want to be involved in a 30 day tax loss trade on Dec 5th? Could all his downward activity be early tax loss selling to be concluded before an event that could move CDMO upwards?
The 30 day wash rule means any tax loss selling would need to be done before friday and re-purchased by Dec 4th to avoid Dec 5th CC results.
Sometine to thik about?
Cubby workin hard today
No Transcript but here's a link to the replay.
https://east.virtualshareholdermeeting.com/vsm/web?pvskey=CDMO2023
I think a transcript would fit on a postage stamp lol
Basically the stock award value is worth zero to Nick right now so can't be characterized as Nick made $5,112,128 in stock this year!
The $5,112,128 represents Performance Stock Units "PSU" and will only achieve any value if Nick performs over the next 3 years.
From 14A Filed Aug 28 2023
For fiscal year 2023, the following amounts represent the aggregate grant date fair value of the PSU awards assuming achievement of maximum (200%) payout with respect to such PSU awards: Mr. Green - $5,112,128; Mr. Hart - $1,217,171; Mr. Richieri - $547,724; Mr. Kwietniak - $730,299; and Mr. Ziebell - $730,299. The PSUs are described more fully under the “Compensation Discussion and Analysis — Components of Our Fiscal Year 2023 Executive Compensation Program — Long-Term Equity Incentive Awards”. For all awards, the amounts in this column do not correspond to the actual value that may be recognized by each NEO. The assumptions used in determining the grant date fair values of the stock and option awards are set forth in Note 6 “Equity Compensation Plans” in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended April 30, 2023, filed with the SEC on June 21, 2023.
From 10-K filed June 21, 2023
Performance Stock Units
The Compensation Committee of the Board of Directors grants PSUs to our executives. The PSUs are subject to annual vesting over three consecutive fiscal year performance periods with the first one-third vesting on April 30 of the year following the grant date, and each successive one-third vesting on April 30 of the following two years respectively (each a “Performance Period”). Each PSU that vests represent the right to receive one share of our common stock. The number of shares that will vest for each Performance Period, if any, is based upon the attainment of certain predetermined financial metrics for each such Performance Period. Depending on the actual financial metrics achieved relative to the target financial metrics for such Performance Periods, the number of PSUs issued could range from 0% to 200% of the target amount. The number of granted shares included in the table below is based on a maximum 200% achievement of each financial metric during each Performance Period (the “Maximum Performance Target”). If a financial metric is achieved at a rate below the Maximum Performance Target, or is not achieved, the corresponding portion of the PSUs that do not vest are forfeited.
So to conclude, Fact-Nick's actual value of his "PSU's" in 2023 is ZERO! So, saying Nick made $5,112,128 in stock this year is false. The PSUs will not gain any value until April 30, 2024 and only if Nick performs!! If he does not meet performance goals he's PSUs with not vest and will become worthless because they will be forfeited.
I see you haven't read the 14A, so you have no idea what Nick makes
Good Grief! open mouth and insert foot
Please look at the 14A to see the real numbers for Nick>
Thanks!!
Well that was worthless, nothing different than what he said last quarterly call.
We are sitting around waiting for a drug to get approved so we can start making it?