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jetcity, what's your cost basis on INTC?
re: dslreports. i found them very useful;
unfortunately, they couldn't make sbc/pacbell a better service provider, so, when cable become available i jumped over and haven't regretted it. this is NOT to say that ATT Broadband is any less of a screwup, just that, for now, they're selling a better product.(g/ng)
cheers,
larry
hey Aug, feel your pain, went thru exact same thing. check out the diagnostics on this site. they may be of use.
http://www.dslreports.com/tools
regards,
larry
yup. it may not represent THE panic, but, it's certainly A panic.
hi max, chart link works fine.
re:'98, wasn't that the SE Asian currency meltdown coupled w/Russian debt default? i also seem to remember market snapped back relatively quickly for all the 'end-of-life-as-we-know-it' commentary. of course, we snapped back all the way to comp 5K so the history lesson is probably useless.(g)
something else i note: the current strength in CCMP's business and stock price is eerily familiar to the same behaviour from last sept. while the soxx was in the shitter CCMP was doing great, turned out to be a nice precursor of semi strength. sure, that was overdone, per usual, but, the indicator is, imho, noteworthy. but what the F do i know? right?(gg)
regards,
larry
oops, sorry max...thought i was posting to George. that chart's a doozy, anyway.
larry
man, that stoc looks like it's been flatlined for almost 2 months! at what point do we declare braindeath and move on?
larry
ps, you buying any NT wrt/Saville rec?
hi zeev, whenever you find a free minute, any opinion on CAH at present? TIA,
larry
"...A successful coup by a moderate appearing leader in that country would create,IMO, a spectacular rally in our markets."
to date, a rare to non-existent creature. that's the problem right now.
larry
speaking of Dick Armey, i believe he's also the committee head ramrodding the cabinet position charter definition for Home Security, an extremely volatile issue impacting the 'color' of defense spending.
alzo, the deadline for having baggage scan capability at all airports pushed out to 12/03. will this be positive or negative for INVN? will this give LLL more time to get in the game? inquiring minds demand answers!(gg)
larry
Aloha,OR FAB5 79-82(RIP FAB5); Folsom,CA, '90-01. worked primarily in CPU SV and CMV last 7 years.
LOL! we were the guys who always said, 'this pos aint ready for prime time' and you were the guys who always said, 'it's feature rich, ship it!' what a circus...(vbg).
sold everything after jonathan joseph pissed everybody off w/his downcycle call in summer of 2K. man, did i have sleepless nights and sweaty palms making that decision.
took the VSP option last july and glad i did. sounds like more belt tightening on the way. current compadres at site still waiting for other shoe to drop.
regards,
larry
dude! what site?
i still think the markets are reacting more to fear and less to economic reason. big equity names blew up and that has to be discounted, granted, but, at some point, that level of discounting has to be justified in relation to actual economic performance. that will happen. that's my basis for the 'nature abhors a vacuum' metaphor. Zeev senses the reaction has a good probability of excess, however shortlived. i'm certainly putting myself in a position to benefit when it does. but when the party blows up, the neighbors complain, the police arrive, i'll be out the back door before they start playing the 'bad boys' theme song.
i don't pretend to understand the technical aspects of money, what it's worth, how it's valued, the explantions flow so fast and furious these days i've dispaired keeping up. the only thing i'm at all sure of is that real commodities support real demand for real profits. although, i'd like to draw attention to the recent spectacular collapse in the OIX. it looks to be the worst in the index's history. just from an amateur's pov, it looks to be quite positive for the production/farming/transport economies. of course, jmho, bwdik.
larry
hello jbennet53, for some historical perspective on the character of markets i highly recommend, "Devil Take the Hindmost" by Edward Chancellor. for a good price and cheap shipping i also recommend these guys:
http://half.ebay.com/cat/buy/prod.cgi?cpid=5008353
cheers,
larry
hi Zeev, furthur to your analyis, 'nature abhors a vacuum', where selling pressure is creating a metaphorical vacuum on the buy side which must react regardless of current sentiment. and vacuums always fill quite rapidly.
disclaimer: not a scientist, merely a retired intel techdude, wiser but not much richer.
larry
"Maybe when this is all over, some of the politicians can become comedians!!!"
LOL, and vicy versy, alzo...
larry
"...it is one thing to point out political events that may have an impact on the markets..."
"...what I don't want to happen is the name calling as we had on other thread, nor vociferous arguments as to who is "right or wrong", let just deal with what "is" and not what we can or cannot do about it..."
exactly. i maintain that the members of this thread are fully capable of making the distinction between polemic rant and cogent observation. the example of the 'color' of the decline in the dollar is a cogent observation and, imho, necessary data to trading the markets. it can't hurt to include it in one's DD and sharing it can't hurt either. that's all i'm saying.
regards,
larry
Zeev, while i appreciate the intent of the policy and agree that polemic rants should be routed elsewhere, i disagree on the interpretation that the current market climate exists in a political vacuum. this is, clearly, untrue and to ignore the fact is disingenious.
for example, much of the unexpectedly rapid decline of the dollar is being assigned to Bush's tariffs on steel, lumber, etc. anyone here made money trading ROCK, WOR, STLD? anybody here lost money trading IP, BOW, GP? if you answered (a)yes, (b)no, then, you were paying attention to political events.
for example, anyone aware of the fact the Rep.Billy Tauzin(d-LA.) effectively shot down Arthur Levitts' attempt to implement stricter oversight rules to the accounting industry prior to ENRON collapse? No? care to guess who might be one of the louder dogs yapping in self-righteous indignation post GX, ENE, WCOM? anyone here escaped all of those issues unscathed? if you did, you were paying attention to the political trade winds.
my point, once again: times have changed. clinton/lewinsky has left the building, bush/cheney is president(regardless of democratic fury at the supreme court) and the anger and fear of 9/11 is slowly receeding to more tolerable levels. clearly, none of those topics are welcome on a trading thread nor should they be. BUT. we now live in THESE times and they ARE relevant to a trading thread, how could they not be? how can anyone here be unaware of how violently current political events, rumours, innuendos jam market sectors up and down day in and out. it makes no sense to shut down access to critical data, particularly in this election year.
i propose an amendment to the thread policy:
a. if a political issue is obviously moving the markets or threatens to, it's relevant.
b. if it's just a case of partisan brainrash, it's outtahere.
anyhow, that's my rant and i'm sticking to it.
cheers,
larry
augie, it's not your responsibility to tell people how to act or what to post here. if political issues have relevance to the trading climate, and many do these days, then those who wish to talk about those issues ARE FREE TO TALK ABOUT IT. are you getting my point?
regards,
larry
yankee, TSCO is jmho. it's a relatively lightly traded, nicely profitable outfit, queued for a 2:1 split next month. getting it in the low/mid $50 range looks good. it's currently a #1 Zack's pick. of course, that may or may not be a good thing.(g)
cheers,
larry
Zeev can take care of himself. i don't think he needs a thread cop. i paid to post here and i'll continue regardless of your acutely quivering outrage. not to put to fine a point to it: mind your own damn business, dogbert.
larry
yes. buy 100 shares of TSCO.
pretty naive if you think politics has no effect on your money in this market. it's all on the table now, bud. just ask harvey pitt.
larry
"Horsegirl, this is a no politics thread, so please take this discussion elsewhere..."
it's the weekend, augie, take off your gun and badge, pop a top on a cold one and relax.
syl80, have you got some gold 'shorties' lining up yet? you called it pretty well last time. TIA,
larry
"... historically the VIX has gone much higher." relative to the highs of oct98 and sept01 the current high is running 3rd in amplitude. i suppose another extreme exogenous event would boost it into territory you'd find more acceptable.
larry
impressive performance in heavy weather...Zeev, what do you think about the price target?
"18-Jul-02
CDW Computer (CDWC) 46.84 +1.29: Last night, company exceeded Q2 earnings estimates and affirmed Q3. Today, stock is up 2.8% on news, and getting a lift from Raymond James upgrade to STRONG BUY from Buy rating with price target of $60, citing another impressive performance in muted IT spending environment. While results were slightly ahead of estimates, business has clearly stabilized, market share gains continue, valuation is very attractive and dark cloud has been lifted from stock; says CDWC is best-positioned company in firm's universe."from Briefing.com
TIA,
larry
i had a feeling it might be a little rich, here. might be better as a short. bwdik...
thanks again,
larry
good morning Zeev, TARO currently looking good around 25/26. are you still tracking it?
thanks,
larry
some BA insight from briefings r us...
"16-Jul-02
Boeing (BA) 40.87 +1.11: While the majority of the DJIA components are trading lower again today, Boeing is bucking the trend thanks to some kind words from Morgan Stanley... As noted in an early In Play comment this morning, Morgan Stanley upgrades to Boeing to OVERWEIGHT from Underweight, noting that the company is shifting focus toward defense in 2004-05; and that recent and expected contract wins makes it one of the more compelling stocks in the defense group... Should note that BA recently announced that it had been selected by the US Army as the prime system engineering contractor to develop the Joint Tactical Radio System - a contract worth nearly $2 bln if fully executed... Other recent wins include a contract worth up to $9.2 bln for weapons-related work on F-15 fighter aircraft, and a DOT deal worth up to $1.37 bln to provide explosive detection machines at U.S. airports... In addition to the ramp in the company's defense business, Morgan notes that commercial aircraft business could also be on mend by 2004-05 providing Boeing with a possible "double-barreled" upcycle... Morgan concluded by noting that near-term risks may provide an attractive mid-$30's entry point, with a price target of $48... It doesn't happen all that often, but in this instance Briefing.com concurs with virtually every point made in the report... BA's decision years ago to diversify more broadly into the defense industry has helped it weather the commercial airline storm brought on by 9/11... With defense spending expected to trend firmly higher BA is definitely in position to win numerous contracts... And while the airline industry is still down from where it was several months ago, business is steadily improving... As long as the economy doesn't dip back into recession, business travel should begin to accelerate by late this year, early next... As profitability returns to the group, anxiety over order growth will begin to fade and BA should enjoy more meaningful multiple expansion... If you're looking for a quick, trading gain, BA may not be the best choice... But if you're looking for a reputable company with a strong management team, discounted valuations and better than market long-term growth prospects then BA is worth a hard look... Stock is currently bouncing off important support in the 40-38 area... Assuming this floor continues to hold BA is poised for a retest of upper-end of range near 50. -- Robert Walberg, Briefing.com"
interesting, possibly useful...
"16-Jul-02
Verisign (VRSN) 7.61 +0.94: Today marks the fourth trading day since we last reviewed Verisign. On Thursday July 11th, with the share price at 5.37, we touched on the company's fundamentals in the context of its earnings warning which it issued the previous night. With the shares now 42% higher, again in a matter of just four days, we felt it would be worth reviewing the reasons Verisign drew our attention, as well as how the dynamics here might carry broader market implications. What initially caught our eye on Verisign was that the shares were solidly higher -- by 8% in this instance -- despite the earnings warning issued by management the night before. When an issue trades higher on reduced guidance, it's probably a good idea to look at its valuation. In many of these situations, the market has priced in a more pessimistic forward outlook than the company's inside projections warrant. In this case, the depth of the warning wasn't all that bad. Management guided second quarter earnings to the range of $0.14 to $0.15 per share -- comfortably under the current consensus estimate for earnings of $0.18 per share, but also comfortably within the realm of 'real' operating earnings upon which a conventional valuation can be assigned. So based on its earnings warning, we estimated that full-year estimates might come down to $0.65 per share. The current Multex consensus estimate, as it turns out, is now $0.67 per share. Using either number, the current-year multiple, based on the Thursday price around 5.40, was in the range of 8.0x to 8.3x earnings. It's tough to drop much lower on a fundamental basis, which is among the reasons Verisign traded higher on its warning. From a broader market perspective, it's relatively clear that Verisign is not a company that is going to set the market tone. Yet at the same time, it doesn't take too many Verisigns posting four-day 40% gains to make it much more difficult for the Nasdaq to move lower. This isn't because Verisign itself will bolster the value of the broader index, it's because professionals take notice of such moves and attempt to position themselves ahead of the next one. -- Mike Ashbaugh, Briefing.com"
i hear ya. my recent experience w/APA has me on the 'chicken run' also. (g)
larry
LG, thanks. reason i ask is i know intel has focused on a few vendors to optomize for multithreading capability on P4 and MACR is one of them. VR(voice rec)is another area of interest.
larry
one to watch when OSX/OIX starts to turn around. it's really spooky how fast the sector fell off a cliff. was it all just speculative war premium? or is there really that much oversupply?
"16-Jul-02
Offshore Logistics (OLOG) 21.31 -0.07: Before open, Jefferies & Co initiated with Buy rating and price target of $28, believing OLOG shares are attractively valued. Firm notes that helicopter transportation industry is highly consolidated, which has helped OLOG maintain relatively stable rate structure even during down cycles; with operations in key international offshore drilling markets, believes co. is well positioned to benefit from increasing offshore drilling activity in remote locations worldwide." [from Briefing.Com]
another nice mover, closed my calls a little early yesterday, who knew?
"16-Jul-02
Human Genome (HGSI) 15.13 +1.54: Stock advances 11% after announcement of initiation of human clinical trials of therapeutic compound licensed to GlaxoSmithKline. Based on news, First Albany is reiterating Buy rating. Firm notes that GlaxoSmithKline has paid HGSI milestone payment of undisclosed size for initiation of Phase I testing of SB-462795, a potential treatment for osteoporosis; milestone helps validate premise that HGSI's large genomic database can be fertile source of novel therapeutic agents; believes news flow, which was quite slow in H102, is likely to pick up during remainder of year."
larry
i like their apps, why do you like the stock?
thanks,
larry
Finn, did you get some bounce on RD yesterday?
more dueling analists...
"16-Jul-02
09:05 ET Pfizer cut to Sell at Fulcrum, upgraded at Deutsche Securities (PFE) 28.78: Fulcrum downgrades PFE to SELL from Buy, saying that PFE and PHA alone or together do not have a sufficient number of major positive catalysts in 2002-04 to offset current and anticipated negative factors to stimulate stock advances of at least 15%; believes PFE may possibly drift downward to about firm's $26 price target. On the other hand, Deutsche Securities upgrades PFE to STRONG BUY from Buy, saying the merger with PHA will dilute PFE's dependence on any single drug, will "load the gun" again on cost savings, and gain PFE all of the profits from the lucrative COX-2 franchise; firm has increased confidence in PFE's ability to make the concensus numbers, and thinks the stock is at a much more attractive level now." from Briefing.Com
ok, it's a pos; no, it's a tog; no it's a...help!
hi zeev, PHTN has been a pretty 'q'-like trader recently. any opinion on it?
thanks,
larry
yes. i suspect headcount is the reason. we'll see.
larry