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I was afraid of this. This will work its way down again until those earnings come out NEXT QTR! JMHO!
No problem, it was my entry point to get up to my 1K share goal. Now I can sit back and ride this up to 15-20 over the next few month!
I hope so because if you look at the last few times it did this we ended up selling off, maybe this time its different. We will know if not tomorrow then surely by Friday!
Their diluting factor ....
... not happening. Look at their daily trading volume. Hasn't changed. Dead give away that their OS is still about the same!
Expect an upward move leading up to November's earnings. JMHO!
DOW is down over 400 points, market pressure making this go sub penny. If market recovers tomorrow this will go above .01 as well. JMHO!
.....Sorry,....
.....I predicted they would fall into the low teens, (.014-.011) but I am "predicting" they wont show earnings till next quarter.
I HOPE I AM WRONG!
But I've seen this before, .... on the positive side, both the industry and the company are looking strong so HOPEFULLY this time a PK stock will deliver!
Another One!
Matrix USA Rating Changes 9/2
Upgrades:
Wolverine Worldwide (NYSE: WWW) from Buy to Strong Buy, citing new financials 10Q; Stillwater Mining (NYSE: SWC) from Strong Sell to Sell, citing new financials 10Q; American Oriental Bioengineering (NYSE: AOB) from Hold to Strong Buy, citing new financials 10Q;
I hope you are right. It would make a PS jump sooner then later!
check this out:
American Oriental (AOB): Forbes quant eyes Chinese medicine
Posted Sep 10th 2008 11:30AM by Steven Halpern
Filed under: International markets, Newsletters, Stocks to Buy
Leading quantitative analyst Vahan Janjigian looks to American Oriental Bioengineering (NYSE: AOB), a maker of Chinese traditional medicines, among his latest featured stocks.
In his The Forbes Growth Investor, the advisor explains, "This market has enjoyed significant growth over the past several years due to several favorable trends." Here's his review.
"American Oriental Bioengineering is a pharmaceutical company that specializes in manufacturing and marketing plant-based traditional Chinese medicines (TCM) in China.
"Plant-based pharmaceuticals (PBP),which generated 82% of Q1 sales, are medicinal compounds derived from the leaves and roots of plants. These products, which are approved by the Chinese State Food and Drug Administration (SFDA), are used to treat various illnesses.
"The Chinese pharmaceutical market has enjoyed significant growth over the past several years due to several favorable trends.
"A booming economy has increased disposable incomes and raised living standards. As a result, demand for pharmaceutical products has risen as Chinese people have climbed up the economic ladder.
"These trends have been accompanied by greater participation in the State Basic Medical Insurance System and increased government spending on health care.
"AOB has benefited from a general preference in China for TCMs over synthetically manufactured alternatives. Complementary acquisitions have also contributed to the company's growth.
"Total revenues and net income over the past three years climbed fivefold to $160 million and $43.3 million in 2007, respectively. Q1 2008 net revenues jumped 50.7% from a year ago to $38.8 million.
"Strong OTC sales more than offset slower growth in the prescription business and falling PBN points to 67.82% due to a shift in the sales mix and higher expenses associated with the integration of an acquisition.
"Investment risks include the planned issuance of $115 million of convertible bonds,which could dilute future earnings; and the sometimes capricious nature of Chinese laws and regulations.
"However, we are focused more on potential growth. Organic sales should rise 30% in 2008. Total sales growth should exceed 50%. Net income is expected to climb at least 43%.
"The company has set aside $16.4 million to fund acquisitions that are already in the pipeline. These expected acquisitions should help AOB build scale and expand market share in China's fragmented pharmaceutical and nutraceutical markets."
I've seen it before that numbers were missed. PR comes out about events AFTER financials are suppose to be released was the hint they aren't coming out this quarter. As I said when this was in the mid 2's that it would most likely go to the low teens. If it does break below .01 that should be down there very long
Even with all the negatives this is still a viable concern, I dont think they lied about there earning (maybe stretched it a bit), and their industry is in demand while they got the OK to expand from the chinese government, right?
When you add it all up this can suprise us to the upside even if and I doubt it seriously that all AS shares will be issued any time soon. That does not happen so quickly and with their earnings they don't need to dilute so much. 5 cents is doable near term and how they handle everything it could very well work its way up to a quarter by late next spring BUT NOT AS QUICKLY AS EVERYONE THINKS.
I am guessing the financials are not quite as good as last time so they are waiting to get the numbers higher. They have to show that the shares have been diluted and I am sure they are spending money on the expansion so it all spells a not so rosey set of numbers, next Q's no doubt will look MUCH BETTER,
Again all this is my own opinion playing this market for as long as I have.
China International Bearing Industry Exhibition ....
.... will give them more exposure that could lead to even better numbers when they finally show earning, I guess those will come out Dec! They seem to be skipping this quarter as I predicted. Any PR could spike this stock at this point.
Looks like big buying at the end of this trading day.
I've seen this before many times and seems it can go either way. My bet is the earning will surpass any negatives, its just down to a waiting game now.
That sounds like a ligit company to me!
Make that a PE of 10! With 85M to grow with that cant be converted til 2015 in a growing Chinese market no mater the world economy, the PS is BS!
Look at a PE ratio of this company over the past three years. Taking its high this should peak around 17.7 and stabilize around 11 but where is it now .... 7.
Not companies fault ... the BS market we are in ... gotta wait!
Like I said:
This will go into the low teens!
DONT PANIC!
Look at AOB and STV. Look at the current induces! Both those two china plays have forward growth of 35 - 50 percent and they also have been hammered.
THIS IS A MARKET SLAUGHTER not a particular stock issue!
They sent out a PR about the conference at the end of September yet mentioned nothing of when earnings are released. This tells me they will delay (maybe Oct) and may even skip to next quarter which will be in Dec. BUT NOT TO WORRY read my previous posts.
Your on the side of the longs and that is great but
THEY WILL DILUTE
their shares bet on it! They are building warehouse space many times what they have now after Chinese government gave them the OK and that will take cash, alot of it. So take the rate that they have been diluting the last three month and keep it going for three more month. that is how I got the extra 45M shares. BET ON IT THEY WILL KEEP SELLING INTO THE MARKET.
But it doesnt mater because the share price has ALREADY reflected that and they are still way below any honest estimates! So take 120M shares at a 2.8 million in net profits and use a China discounted 10 PE. PE of STV (China cable)and AOB (China otc drugs) are above 10.
You get 23.3 cents per share but with the expanded warehouse and higher demands the bottom line profit could go up to around 5 Million/yr. And if it is perceived that China will recover recession over this next year then PE's will also move higher to around 15 so add another 50% to my target price putting it at .35 BEFORE INCREASE IN PROFITS.
And even if I am off by 100% we will still get 8-15 cents which is 400-750% return from current levels
Lastly we are entering the notorious Nov-Jan run with the Ugly Oct (which this year may very well be September) so if we miss it this month we will surely see it before early Jan. hence my using the three month forward looking target!
Suggestion: if this goes below .02 then start accumilating, I will!
Here goes:
Showtime may be a pumper, I've seen it before but ....
in time we may very well hit .50
first: history
1. Company buys back shares in hopes to increase SP
2. Finds out it doesnt work while gets OK to expand from gov.
3. Starts spending for expansion but bottom line looks ugly
4. Start a dilution process starting June 1 to find cash to expand while increasing product pricing
5. qtyly earning delayed to hide the expenses payed on expansion until they get enough from dilution and sales to show good numbers ... remember they are unadited so they can make the numbers retro if they want
Ok now evaluation:
27 Mil to 72 M since june 1 so double the delta 72-27=45 Now add 45 to the existing 72 to give you 117. start your calculations from atleast 120m OS for the next 3 month target
Use 15 PE and a forward looking profits of minimum .7Mx4=2.4 million /yr and climbing say around 2.8 million with expansion costs on say 120M shares
Now where is the target value on that ... come on and get your calculators out and tell me!
Lets get back on subject:
1. First dont use the 72M OS figure because as we wait for earnings the figure will surely go up
2. NO this wont go into the sub pennies because their revenues and profit is too much and there is now too much exposure.
3. We may see the low teens and it may touch down to 1 penny but honestly I doubt that seriously. I have held many stocks in this range and they did not have the earnings this does and when they did they popped nicely in time
OK thats it .. I may be wrong ... but I think I'm right, why?
1. Market for this product is hot.
2. Country from where this product comes from is hot
3. Financial numbers and company growth is hot
Correction .019 (In hawaii its still early for me)
One nice observation: SUPPORT LEVEL
Stock Price has flattened out around .19 this month after continual monthly drops this year. This could be forming the bottom and supports why RSI is increasing quarterly. Remember that this happened while shares were being diluted (Whether we knew it or not) thereby showing the company's actual strenth. This should be GREAT news if we may have found our support at .19 and with the AS news now out before earnings release will build up for a spring board to support at .04 - .05 area. This would be significant since it would for the first time this year change the trend to something more healthy for us to enjoy watching.
And stating again BB narrowing with good financials is both a fundimental and technical indicator that SHARE PRICE TRENDS WILL CHANGE DIRECTION AND BE GOING UP!
Lastly if the Olympics helps stir up the Chinese economy and get investors excited again then that will only help us fire this baby up. Even in PK land this co. is a top 5'er in industrial markets. Look at AOB, CSUN, and STV as indicators of a chinese market reversal.
NO! This is the pinksheet market and anyone that has been here a while knows this is this part of the game. They all do it. Endure the nature of the beast and learn how to play it! This one is better then most!
Looking at this with some shock wearing off:
about 150 million shares (suggested dilition from these levels) and a 2.5M net profits (suggested by current financials) then using a modest multiplier of 15 we are still looking at an honest forward looking PS of:
.249/share
So even if targets are missed slightly then peaks up to .15 should still be doable in the not so far future.
Mark this post!
I dont like saying I told you so because like you guys i am losing a ton.
Playing these for a long time I still get caught and have to strap on some of those steel balls to stay in the game
Yet even if these guys use up all the AS shares we are looking at a .075 price share on about 2.5m in net profit which is doable by years end.
At current OS this company is still cheap but bet on it contining to be diluted as they use the money for their expansion.
Once the initial shock of AS increase rubs off we should go back up.
No I don't see sub pennies because the financials are to great but their growing pains are giving up those higher end PS targets.
Even as shares increase Technicals still suggest this will sprint upwards due to the BB narrowing and the RSI is getting stronger so this will still move to higher ground in time but we may see low teens first.
China market is huge and growing. ALL chinese stocks are down and even Cramer on MAD Money is preplexed by this.
So hold on and don't panic, this is not pump and dump speaking but just a another investors with years of experience.
I'm in with 300K shares so you know i am losing money right along with you guys.
One more technical point:
The bollinger Bands have narrowed and the last three month RSI was stronger then the previous three month.
This shows me the stock is winding up before a healthy upward trend (normal market)or atleast some decent spikes (Pinksheet world) are within reach in the next few month. Of course this is if the financials continue to impress otherwise this is nothing more then another dilution nightmare.
I understand they need money to do their expansion but I hope they didnt forget us. Readjusted pricing and increased sales are all good but the bottom line debt needs to be controlled or that and the stock dilution will eat away any significant share price increase.
At this point with the volume as we have been seeing it I would do the numbers to the maximum AS instead of the current OS. Its seems more common sense that there is dilution from looking at the trading volume so better to take the worst case senerio. That being said this price seems to still have a healthy upside potential even if financials are delayed for some reason fo all the reasons stated in previous posts.
The CMF and accum/diff charts show a fundimental change in the share technicals. This could be a good sign that we wont see the stock perform as it did in the last several month but start to climb back up to more reasonable levels for a company with this kind of revenues. JMHO.
Hourly technicals (Hourly interval for 10 days using SlowStoc, RSI, BollingerB's and trendlines) looks to go higher over the next few days. It may very well break 0.035 by next Monday-Tues. JMHO!
It looks like china stock out of favor. My three companies are all expanding, increasing revs, profits but prices are dropping, go figure. AOB, STV CJGH.
Take advantage and buy here. I did, 10K at .095. If they take it lower I may just buy more!
They say in the markets that history never really repeats itself exactly. Well we have been here before at the end of April. I hope we dont repeat the selloff. The news is different, the atmosphere more upbeat so there is every reason history, chartwise will not be repeated. I sure hope so, got a lot of shares riding on this as a presume most of you!
For sure if their earning report is accurate and they can produce the same next quarter, then it won't mater where this goes short term, will it?
Have we exhausted all the sellers?
Shooting for another 20K at .11 lets see if they will go for it!
Well guys and gals, just picked up 20K more at .125 if you are watching the L2 screen! Why not huh? or was that a wasted trade?
PrettyN, is that a DAZ 3D character? Do you do animations with Poser or DAZ Studio?
STV standing in Industry
"Webcast Alert: Diversified Investing with Asian Companies (China Digital TV Holding Co., Ltd.)"
This financial review by CFO is fantastic with over 50% forcasted growth for several years. Incentives from Government to help carriers like tax rebates and free broadcast of Olympic games. Service to carriers including engineers at site, expanding technolgy to video game market, HDTV and more. Shows potential customer base is still huge and domination in industry obvious. They are used as a standard as well. The potential is far to obvious for anyone to be worried about their investment here and I now believe what economical worries will be short lived. Shy of any major stock dilutions or major dollar adverse valuation changes, any short term correction will be just that short term, JMHO.
No response to the latest news! Come on guys! They retracted the dilution but kept the buy back! Is GOD hearing my prayers or what, THANKYOU .... up we go!
How do you see how the World Olympics will effect the chinese economy or will it, in your opinion? Also will the new acquisition of the 6.6 million subscribers work for or against the companies current balance sheets, meaning did they buy debt or assets?
I have to do the reality check myself. I see a company working into the #5 slot on companies in this industry, they are going into their stronger quarters as they are growing year over year. They bought companies with unique drugs that are controlled by the government that should put them in favor and the Chinese will continue to get sick no mater what the economy does! The company's PPS low at its worst situation (IMO) was 7.5 and we are not really that far from that number, while the upside is percentage wise alot higher (18-25). The odds look great to me! I see a possible stock dilution maybe of 10-15% in the short to medium term so I dont see why it need to correct much farther from here. Again its just my opinion!
It appears the private offering stated this morning caused the sentiment to get the short sellers to do their deed. No worries. The momentum wont be stopped, only delayed for a bit.
NEWS!
American Oriental Bioengineering Announces US$75 Million Share Repurchase Program
That should add another 10% to the share value. Correction on the PE forcast. This stock never went above 25 but the forward increasing earnings in the better seasons will make up for it and this discount due to buyback will not hurt.
Company is trying give its shareholders VALUE!