Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Ya “contract-shmontract”. But at least according to them they are hooking aramco sites up now. “According to them”. So MOU or contract or whatever.
A month or two back got an email back. But waiting for a reply since. Don’t know if they are in a blackout. Could try the analysts, but they don’t really respond to nobodies. Not sure that they would know anything more than us anyway.
You just got to think about the situation. The price is down more today because someone ditched some shares in a stock with low volume and large spreads. The only thing that has changed is we still don’t have the debt financing, which is obviously relevant.
On the yahoo board there is someone talking about them doing lay offs for the autopro project engineers. But like why keep a zero revenue head count. So there is that.
All I know is we have a Saudi contract, with Saudi financing. I just don’t see that offer without the saudis doing the math and seeing the investment opportunities here. The last two years has been a management debacle that has been brutal. For sure Covid has been part of it. Maybe if there was no Covid, we would be at 150k assets or something by now. But the financing sure was painful over the last two years, patiently waiting for assets to start connecting again. Every quarter a disappointment.
I’m just so disappointed that this could have been a home run 10 bagger and its like they kept putting the pitcher at bat over and over again. So at this point I’m psychologically giving up on worrying about this. I’m so disappointed that I don’t care anymore and I own a shit ton of shares.
Ya, I went into home capital when that bank run was happening for no reason. I believe I actually bottom ticked that one with several $10k’s, which is my only bottom tick. Then they got a loan from buffett. I also went into Aimia when that was at the bottom, knowing that air Canada would probably buy them out. So I’ve been here before, but this is different because I don’t k is what to believe from mcmeekin. Like are things actually getting better? I can keep a 90k target. But history tells me that targets don’t mean much in this company…
But we are at the point where the shares are not worth selling. Basically an option on the bull case of aramco asset growth… which is why the Saudi money has no problem betting on convertible debentures…
I wouldn’t be surprised if the underwriting fee went down from 8 to 7% because of how long this is taking. You would think you pay someone a commission to make the first f-1 go through… if this ever does go through, the conversion better not change to $1 on those prefs.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but the only reason they need the SEC is because they want the prefs and the warrants to go the exchange. Otherwise they would just be able to do the deal correct? Like to raise normal debt, you don’t need and SEC approval?
Like all tech got hammered, but I feel like these guys did it to themselves. Other stuff was at like 50x sales and went to 5x, but this wasn’t even a valuation problem. Their only hope is getting this debt figured out. I was looking how long it took to get the original listing and how long other F1s take in general. I think this debauchery is normal, but they should have factored this in a year ago. But who knows…
https://www.orrick.com/en/Insights/2018/06/Tips-for-Successful-SEC-Staff-Review-of-Your-IPO
There won't be a rebate if they don't have the money to pay for the setups at 30 locations....
This is worse than Elon's "Funding Secured"
And they got the 15M in April and May, so half way through the Q. They paid back 4M in other debt in last Q. So I don't know how they burned through 12M in Q2. I just don't know how this fits on their balance sheet because those assets are held by a sub, but should flow through, and technically Carbon has rights to certain payments on those assets. But we don't see asset purchases in any financials.... So I dont know if there is some weird accounting rule that you get the debt to show up but no assets?
Brian Kinstlinger — Analyst, Alliance Global Partners
And then the last thing I want to talk about and then I'll get back into queue with one more question probably is the $15 million of funding from Carbon Royalty, that's to fund the first 50 dealerships. Can these funds also be used for other purposes, or only the dealership? And is that separate from—
Russ McMeekin — Co-Founder, President, and Chief Executive Officer, mCloud Technologies Corp.
Only dealerships
------
I don't know what this means because what is work associated with dealerships and internal activities to support starting up the dealerships? How much do they spend on dealership hardware etc of the 15M? Shouldn't they recognize initialization money? When....
Ok, thanks I remember that now. So it's US investors who are registered in the US who will participate, and it looks like some are:
06/27/2022
...
The Company has received and responded to comments toward the anticipated clearing of the registration statement and anticipates completing the offering following the registration statement becoming effective, with proceeds largely from existing and additional strategic investors....
I did a PDF comparison between the two last F1's (aug vs sept). The only change is the lowered fees, some updated stock price history, some changes to the annual financials, and the removal of a bunch of references that are now just linked to in the previous version.
So I don't really know what the technical hold up is because they just seem to have updated the F1 with a more recent information and made the deal a bit "less worse" than it already is...
So if I understand correctly, probably some of the old debt investors might want to stick around and the new instrument doesn't allow a roll over for the old debenture holders. So what's the delay then? The old holders figuring out how to roll? Or the SEC allowing them to roll?
Or am I off base here?
Plus I don't understand this agnity thing. Was the agnity an IP revenue source? losing that doesn't remove any "assets" in the asset count right?
Ya in this last quarter, they burned through a lot more cash (12.4M) than Q1 (3.8M). The thing that gets me is they did the Agnity revenue adjustment last quarter but the transaction occurred after for 6M right? But I don't think that revenue adjustment had nothing to do with the cashflow.
It's always something.... The something never ends!
Brian Kinstlinger — Analyst, Alliance Global Partners
And then the last thing I want to talk about and then I'll get back into queue with one more question probably is the $15 million of funding from Carbon Royalty, that's to fund the first 50 dealerships. Can these funds also be used for other purposes, or only the dealership? And is that separate from—
Russ McMeekin — Co-Founder, President, and Chief Executive Officer, mCloud Technologies Corp.
Only dealerships.
Brian Kinstlinger — Analyst, Alliance Global Partners
Only the dealership. So this $15 million in funding is different from what at least I thought I understood was a Middle East organization providing strategic funding. Is that right?
Russ McMeekin — Co-Founder, President, and Chief Executive Officer, mCloud Technologies Corp
Correct. The F-1 file, the perpetual preferred structure is a structure that fits all investment types, Sharia, you name it. And so that structure is not just for U.S., but it's also for the Middle East. It fits the requirements of the Middle East, but it is not the same as Carbon Royalty. I understood was a Middle East organization providing strategic funding. Is that right?
Ya it doesn't make sense because now we are in a negative equity partly because of that. We got the 15M USD that is held by the sub and it shows up as a liabilty, but you would think that the cash or assets purchased would be assets. Maybe there is some weird asset recognition rule for that? But that is not how accounting works in my head... I don't think they spent the 15M in 3 months? That is more than the op cash flow burn...
I thought the CR loan money could only be used for CR activities and not general business expenses.
Is the SEC holding up the funding because it’s Saudi money? Or is there something else going on?
I don’t think Russ actually bullshits. I think he actually believes what he’s saying. You have to be confident to a certain extent to run a public company. So I think it’s more about gaging his confidence in his speech. I agree that he sounded more confident in achieving 90k. The only thing that really matters to me at this point is operating cash flow. What is an asset anymore. What is MMR anymore, 50, 100, 150?
I’ve heard the words “back loaded” before and been disappointed
I feel like Im about to get a root canal in the waiting room for this CC...
More connections same effective revenue ignoring that one thing. 90k still a target? 3000 new assets…. Do assets even add revenue anymore?
Would be surprised if we did any real connections. We are 4.5 months past Q1 and if we were doing more than 1200/m we would hit the “magic” 70k. I feel like they would have issued a press release. Plus Russ’s caricature of around 1000 per month was another thing to be disappointed in.
Just very disappointed. Get to profitability. Stop the drama.
It’s like these guys can’t do a single thing right. Like they can fly to Saudi and get a deal done, but then they sit on it. They can make new products and then sit on it. Now they are sorting out financing and siting on it. It’s like a constant stream of disappointment. Then russ talks up the future. I like optimism, but at what point do you give up?
Warrants don’t dilute if the price keeps going lower and lower lol. Hope this thing goes to zero so I don’t have to worry about it anymore and can move my focus onto other things.
Ya from the horses mouth. But keep in mind you don’t tend to trust a horse that bucks you off every ride.
Ya. Its like a jigsaw puzzle with 50 extra pieces sometimes.
Apparently SEC approval took longer than anticipated. Should be done next week according to MCLD.
I think a lot of those old contracts were what 3 year contracts so they should jump up from the low MMR to the higher $150? Was there a lot of cheap proof of concept MMR to early adopters? So maybe in two years we are at the $100-150 blended average MMR?
Ya I agree with DVP. I think it is just an example of an asymmetric bet. Before Covid, they started to do 5k connections per Q. If they can get back on that track, the business will take off. For example, if they get to 150k assets in two years:
150,000 Assets
$150mmr/asset X 12 = $1800/year
If they dilute to 50M shares, that's $5.4 revenue per share. You can put whatever margin you want on that and a 10-15x cashflow to get to a fair value. Or put a 2-3x revenue on it. I think if it can grow again, it's a $20-30 target. And large growth from there. But like DVP said, I thought that would happen a year ago. Lots of great deals in the pipeline. Lots of potential right now coming up. Management sucks at times, but if you didn't have Russ, you wouldn't have the Saudi deal or some others. I've been pissed off a number of times, but Business isn't always roses.
My average cost is not $10. The current price still has very low optimism. It could get lower again. So if you believe in the product, which I do, it's easy to buy. But I'm still frustrated.
Ya each pref comes with 1/2 a warrant
Didn't it switch from a convertible to straight debt plus warrants or something?
The only tech stock with momentum now lol.
Prob cuz they said they already did 1-2k connections in april/may. So some investors may think they are getting back on track. Although they weren't just off the track before, but shut down the train and took a holliday.
So 1k/month based on no saudi, ev dealers, or wind, etc. Hopefully those things ramp them up at least double/month. I would be happy with 80k assets by the end of the year. Heck at this point 70k. What's the break even now. I bet that is higher now too. I wish they would undersell and over deliver.
couple 1,000 assets in april/may so far sounds better....
After listening to the last CC, I think I understand the EV model. What they did is reach a deal with Carbon Royalty to establish these EV contracts, tie a debt financing to the contract and pull out the future revenue early. I think they can pull Carbon loans back to the main corp. That's why Carbon has rights to the revenue from the EV deals. The EV deals are 20 year deals with the dealerships. I don't think the 15M has anything to do with the actual dealership infrastructure of solar and batteries, etc. At least Russ was saying things like "it changes the model. now we get virtuall all the revenue up front with these contracts". Remember hearing that before lol?
I'm trying to find that presentation that had the total assets by end of 2022.... it seems to have vanished...
Revenue is an accounting number that is reported based on accounting rules. Their revenue recognition has to pass a test. The test includes "is the asset up and running?". In spite of the assets being down, it they are still collecting monthly fees or already collected money etc.
is hope a good investment strategy lol?