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Bavi, the Mab that wouldn't stay dead. I almost liked it better when there was no hope. All we had to focus on was Avid's rapidly growing, highly profitable manufacturing business.
We don't know if Bavi and the anti-PS effort will have any commercial success or even attract a good partner, but we do know it ain't dead yet. We also know Peregrine has learned its lesson regarding the high risks associated with "going it alone."
GLTA, Paul
The biomarker news would be more meaningful if we knew what percentage of the trial patients had it. Obviously, it was not a universal thing or the Sunrise trial would have made us richer, instead poorer.
We'll just have to wait a while to find out just how important this is.
GLTA, Paul
Corp, you may be wrong. The revenue deferred from the last quarter due to the third party testing lab delay will appear in this quarter along with this quarter's expected receipts. And, as we all know the RandD expenses will be much lower than in previous years. More income, less expense. Could be in the green. Not sustainable yet, but the market wouldn't know that.
GLTA, Paul
At least Bavi is in the hands of objective, internationally respected investigators. Not only is it in their hands, but they have the benefits of knowing how patients in earlier trials have fared. No guarantee they will find anything useful. However, if they do find something useful, the results will be respected by potential partners. We'll see.
Meanwhile, we have solid reason to believe the next quarter financial results will look good. May even push Peregrine into the green. I hope we see this before the likely RS.
GLTA, Paul
CB, when the next quarter revenue comes in at $20 plus million, I hope the market responds more positively than you will.
GLTA, Paul
Given the huge Sunrise disappointment, Peregrine is forging ahead in an efficient way on the Avid and Bavituximab fronts.
As usual they ran into image damaging bad luck from the third party contractor reviewing the Avid output. This time the damage should make the next quarter look good.
There is still reason to be hopeful the share price will improve, if it can handle the inevitable reverse split without too much trouble. Remains to be seen.
GLTA, Paul
Since success with Bavi has gone from a long shot to scarcely any shot at all, the only realistic question for me is what are Avid's prospects. How fast can it grow?
I like what management has done recently. Avid II up and running. Avid III launching next year. By year end 2017 is the gross sales 25 million a quarter? Can Peregrine leverage its services to baby bios into equity positions in them?
I know the future we all wanted is not happening. I'm over it. Does Peregrine still have a chance to make us any money in the next few years?
GLTA, Paul
If Peregrine is valued based on its bank balance and Avid's earnings, we don't have much downside at this time IMO.
If Avid inks some new deals, we should see an up move. If Peregrine can salvage Bavi's tarnished reputation, we may move up.
Otherwise, we just sit, right? Of course, if you are like me, you are sitting on a substantial loss.
GLTA, Paul
Maybe Peregrine should skip the RS and just leave NASDAQ. If they did it, because they believe Avid's earnings will grow them back into NASDAQ status in a year or two I could respect the decision. However, management is too addicted to their ATM cash stream to go there.
If Peregrine did go the RS route while shutting down the ATM program for two years, maybe the share price would hold up after the RS. Asking too much?
Meanwhile dreamers, why don't you just take the company private and run it your way?
GTLA, Paul
CP, you paint an optimistic picture of Peregrine life post-RS. What you do not seem to recognize is that reverse splits are highly damaging to investor psychology. After the shock has worn off, I hope the good things you and I hope to see will happen. If they do, then a gradual recovery of the SP should follow IMO.
GLTA, Paul
Risk vs. reward to buy PPHM shares now. With the RS hanging over our heads probably too risky to buy. However, on a valuation basis Peregrine does look cheap IMO. At 210 million shares or so, at 40 cents a share, the valuation is about 84 million. Round it up to 90 million.
The corporate check book has about 60 million. So the rapidly growing Avid business is valued at less than 30 million. And the anti-PS project valued at 0.
I'm not buying. I have more than enough shares. It is nice to know that if Avid continues to grow and Bavi is worth something, some day company valuation may well exceed our current 90 million.
We'll see.
GLTA, Paul
I believe King suggested Avid could be valued at 2-5 times gross sales. So, if Avid grosses 60 million next fiscal year that would be a value of 120 to 300 million. If only Bavi could somehow equal that value in a year, we might look a lot better then than we do now.
Avid's 40% annual growth rate might restore our fortunes in two to three years without any help from Bavi.
Used up the last of my hopium.
GLTA, Paul
corp, Avid has been profitable for years on a small scale. As it has grown, it has continued to be profitable. Third party revenue with a 40% compounded growth rate for years. These are audited numbers, not some baloney management puffery.
As to drug development, yeah it has not worked. Maybe never will.
Meanwhile, I won't mind if I have to wait a year or two for my PPHM investment to get back in the black. Actually, that would be a huge return on my remaining investment. Of course risky, but I like their chances as a manufacturer with rapidly growing sales. I like it better than selling and buying another high risk bio or a no return money market, CD or treasury.
GLTA, Paul
The most important thing I took away from the CC is management's clear intention to turn Peregrine into a profitable, cash generating company. About time.
On the Avid front there were two solid items. First, 68 million in confirmed contracts. Second, the third Avid facility will come on stream mid next year. A third somewhat solid item is the intention to broaden Avid's product/services menu. Once you have a customer in the door why not sell them more stuff. It is entrepreneurial thinking we have not seen from Peregrine before.
On the drug development side the exosome testing kit project may or may not have value. We'll just have to wait a year or so to find out.
As to the Bavi project, it is noteworthy that Sunrise patients are still on Bavi. Maybe there is still hope for Bavi. We should learn something here in the next months if there is anything promising. We'll soon see.
I am not tempted to add at this time. If the share price stabilizes after the all but inevitable RS, might be time to think about adding. If you haven't sold already, I don't see any need to now.
GLTA, Paul
As a result, we feel that today’s licensing deal provides yet another important driver in our ongoing efforts to achieve profitability.”
Much as I hate to say it, the RS was inevitable since the Sunrise failure. The good news IMO is management's pivot to Avid and low cost approach to giving Bavi one more shot.
Still hope. Avid alone may be able to grow us out of the pit we now find ourselves in. Bavi may still surprise us, but it's hard to be optimistic after Sunrise.
GLTA, Paul
Nothing succeeds like success. An old adage I hope is particularly applicable to Avid. Obviously, future Avid success depends a lot on how well the Avid II expansion plays out. It also depends on the predicted Avid III expansion predicted for mid-2017.
Years ago I wondered if Avid might become the tail that wagged the dog. We'll see.
Meanwhile, it is too early to give up on Bavi. I think management is following a prudent course for Bavi by handing over the assessment to outside researchers. If they make a compelling case for going forward, a deep pocketed partner will come forward. If they don't, those of us who remain are looking at a very different investment than the moon shot Bavi looked like a few years ago.
I still hope for Bavi fireworks, but a solidly profitable, rapidly growing Avid could turn this losing investment into a winner.
GLTA, Paul
When is the next conference call? I don't know of any good news we can expect in the near term, but you never know. We do need it desperately, don't we?
GLTA, Paul
Amazing. Less than half a million dollars in shares traded. Whatever happened to my billions? The Microsoft of biotechs?
The share price below the cost of a Happy Meal, a BigNTasty!
Just thought a sobering perspective on where we are was in order.
At least Avid continues to provide good news. Avid has produced profits from third parties for years. Isn't that what business is all about? Maybe the gross will reach 100 million in a few years.
As to Bavi? Too early to stick a fork in it. Might still be worth something. One more chance at success. The contracted outside researchers should give us an answer fairly soon. Keep those by now arthritic fingers crossed.
GLTA. Paul
bcsp, much of what you say WAS true. Not so true anymore. Avid is a winner. It has been profitable for years. Its revenue is growing rapidly. Double digit growth could take revenue to 70 million is two years. The gross profit percentage is at least 40%.
Maybe Bavi-immunotherapy will pan out, maybe not. If we can't have Bavi billions, I'd rather have Avid millions than nothing at all.
GLTA, Paul
cheynew, I don't know about other shareholders but it was always clear to me that Peregrine was a highly speculative investment. All the talk of billions here clearly indicated many understood this was an all or nothing throw of the dice. Success depended not just on management skill, but whether Mother Nature wanted the anti-PS approach to be a significant cancer/virus fighter. As of now, Mother Nature has given us the cold shoulder.
The fact that Peregrine management had a fall back position in the mabufacturing space is probably just luck. But I'll take it.
A rapidly growing Avid may be worth a few bucks a share. Not a fortune but that's a lot better than a complete loss.
If Bavi-immunotherapy works out, we will make some substantial money. I don't see strong evidence this will happen, but it is still possible.
So, we go on from here. Demonizing management for being greedy seems a little hypocritical from all us would-be millionaires.
GLTA, Paul
chenzo11, you are probably right. With the reverse split hanging over our heads, it's hard to see how the SP can move up appreciably. The "however" is that Avid future profitability may support a market capitalization well above our current 100 million or so. This is certainly not a stretch when Peregrine is sitting on more than 50 million. So, buying here would take guts, but has a good chance to be profitable in a year or two.
Of course in the unlikely event that Bavi-immunotherapy actually is worth something, the SP could move much higher.
The game has changed. We are not looking at a short term big winner. We may be looking at a relatively near term solid winner. We may be looking at a mid to long term big winner. We'll see.
GLTA, Paul
Bad luck is not the same as bad management. Bavi looked good in pre-clinical and showed promise in the early phase trials, not all but some. Those butt holes in Fargo confused the issue, but the reconstructed data was good enough for the FDA.
Meanwhile, management had the good sense to move Avid from an inhouse producer of Bavi to a rapidly growing producer of biologicals using what appear to be state of the art procedures. Let's not pretend this was not smart.
As to profitability, management says they expect sustained profitability in two years. I read this to say we may see profitable quarters sooner than that.
Focusing attention on the rear view mirror does not reliably predict the future. Especially when the car has turned down a very different street.
Sorry no billions of profits. We will just have to be satisfied with millions of profits.
GLTA, Paul
Meanwhile, Avid is growing rapidly. If next year's gross will be 50-55 million, and if double digit growth is continued, Avid could be a very profitable company. While not the "Microsoft of Anything", it could make those who purchase at these levels an outsized return.
While criticizing Peregrine for nature's refusal to respond to the Bavi-chemo regime may feel good, failing to recognize the little gold mine of Avid is misleading to the uninitiated.
GLTA, Paul
Good to see Peregrine management is taking a realistic approach to advancing Bavi. If outside research provides a signal strong enough to get a BP partner, fine. In either case ramp Avid up to the max.
GLTA, Paul
Not a contest, but I do wonder when Peregrine might see its first profitable quarter. This calendar year? Calendar 2017? Sooner would be better than later. Soon enough to get investors back on board in time to prevent a reverse split? Probably not, but maybe.
Research costs are down. Revenue is up. Could be worse.
GLTA, Paul
I don't care if they get options or free trips to Disney World as long as they get the share price back over $1 without a reverse split.
Educate me if I'm wrong, but options are only exercised if the share price goes up.
Those of us who are under water, probably about 90+%, have every reason to be unhappy. However, complaining about options that only have value if our share price goes up just sound dim to me.
GLTA, Paul
bfiest, I agree the 24 months from sustainable profitability could be conservative. In view of the horrible investor experience owning their shares, I think this is a sound choice.
I agree the current share price has great potential to move up. Sadly I don't think it will happen over night. Could take a few quarters of good Avid numbers.
If the research efforts bear strong results, maybe we can still get that partnership many have waited for. Clearly Peregrine management has abandoned the "go it alone" approach. I had no problem with that approach before the Great Sunrise Halt. No longer possible under the new reality.
Would be nice if PPHM could hang onto the 50 cent level.
GLTA, Paul
I liked the PR. Pretty much what I was hoping to see from Peregrine management. They haven't dumped Bavi, but they made the simple decision to focus on what's working.
I particularly liked the Avid Phase III expansion. Nothing wrong with making a profit. Better to own a "value investment" than a no value investment.
If Bavi has value in concert with the new cancer immunotherapies, the deal with MSK and the cancer research network will confirm it.
Maybe our share price can beat the de-listing deadline. That would be sooo sweet.
As to those who have criticized my recent posts, I forgive you you're lack of perspicacity.
GLTA, Paul
Not my bigbro. I don't know that Peregrine management does not monitor this board. What makes you think they don't?
If King and company would communicate their assessment of Peregrine current condition in an honest way, maybe I wouldn't feel compelled to tell them what I think it is. As to the readers here, they don't have to read me anymore than King does.
Maybe I am just sending messages in a bottle into a sea of indifference, but I have more than money invested in Peregrine. I want them to succeed so I can make money and incidentally not look like an idiot for investing in Peregrine.
GLTA, Paul
Interest in Peregrine seems as low as the share price. Not much volume, not much posting here. Before the apologists start spinning lets face the obvious. The investing world has passed us by. Just another car wreck on the shoulder waiting for the tow truck. Even the lookie lous aren't slowing down to take a peek.
Sorry for the depressing observation. I sincerely hope Peregrine management has some understanding how low their "brand" has fallen.
Not necessarily the end of the Peregrine world, but time for management to realize they are in a new world. If they want to get back to a sunnier place, they have work to do.
Stop acting like a company on the verge of success. After the Sunrise halting success is no where in sight. Show investors three things. One, management needs to tighten the financial controls. Starting with their own comfy salaries and moving on to slash other non-Avid expenses. Do it soon. Do it publicly.
Second, show investors industry leaders recognize anti-PS value in the only way that counts, a comprehensive partnership. You know the kind serious partners negotiate: upfront money, milestone payments, royalty terms,etc.
Third, fight like hell to avoid a reverse split. If it is unavoidable, find a way to sweeten the pot for shareholders. Make it compelling.
GLTA, Paul
I applaud your eagerness to defend Peregrine, but you might want to read my post more closely. I love Avid's expansion. I suggested it might have grown even faster without Peregrine's reputation for failure in drug development.
Without the Peregrine attachment maybe Avid would be double or triple its current size.
GLTA, Paul
You have to wonder if Peregrine's poor record as a drug development company is a drag on Avid's ability to attract clients.
Maybe Peregrine could launch Avid as a separate company on Nasdaq. I wonder how the market would treat those shares.
GLTA, Paul
CP, all this scientific talk about the marvels of Bavi means nothing if it can't improve clinical outcomes to the satisfaction of the patients, the FDA, potential partners etc.
Not saying Bavi can't achieve these things, just saying we have read about all these things for years, and we are looking at a reverse split.
Until Peregrine management can come up with reasons restoring shareholder confidence, the happy talk here sounds hollow.
GLTA, Paul
bifest, I agree with most of what you say except I don't know AstraZeneca has as much input to Bavi development as you indicate. Probably would be a good thing.
I still hope management can find a way to restore investor confidence, i.e. share prices tend upward. No sign they see this as a priority.
GLTA, Paul
Senrex, the reverse split would tell me things I don't want to hear. First, Peregrine management has no short term news to prevent it. Second, Peregrine is not willing or able to create the news to prevent it. Third, Peregrine doesn't care how its shareholders will be hurt by it.
I sincerely hope Peregrine management can get the share price over a dollar without a reverse split.
GLTA, Paul
Yes, eb0783. Without partnering news, I don't see how Peregrine can get back above the $1 share minimum in time to avoid a reverse split.
Sadly without a comprehensive partnership announcement I see the share price sliding after a reverse split. Probably sliding rapidly. I don't like saying it, because I hold a bunch of shares. I just don't see the market reacting positively to any news short of a big dollar partnership or profitable quarterlies.
I have held onto my shares, because I like Avid's revenue growth and prospects. I cling to the hope that Bavi will work well with the new immunotherapies, but I do not consider it likely.
GLTA, Paul
Lets see clinical results before we invest any hope in these efforts.
As I may have mentioned before, if Peregrine management can't fund Bavi development by inking a comprehensive partnership,the kind with milestone payments, royalty agreements, etc, current shareholders will be diluted out of any meaningful benefit.
GLTA, Paul
Fear vs. greed. Some say these two attitudes determine how a stock moves. Up with greed. Down with fear. Given our current share price I don't think there is any doubt that PPHM reflects a lot more fear than greed.
So, if we ever expect to see the share price go up, Peregrine management must show investors they have little to fear and much to be greedy about.
After the Sunrise halt, some apparently don't see this as a failure like I do, management has clearly not done enough to tilt investor attitudes away from fear.
Despite the current situation I like to think Tustin is smart enough to take the steps necessary.
GTLA, Paul
I hate to be right when I am skeptical of any share price improvement. IMO there will be no share price improvement until Peregrine management shows it can operate the business in a way that respects its shareholders interests.
Sounds like Investing 101, doesn't it?
As a clarification, I see shareholder interests including: the end to the lengthy history of ownership dilution(has gone on long enough), validation via comprehensive partnership with major BP, expense reduction via upper management and board compensation cuts and other belt tightening measures(excluding Avid).
GLTA, Paul