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One piece from the podcast I found interesting was the reference to having access to a 15,000 SF facility. As of the last Q they reported leasing 8,000 SF, but I recall elsewhere there had been talk of an expansion that would approximately double their footprint.
Has anyone had any luck digging into Sam Berry's background/qualifications? I haven't been able to learn much about his background prior to BBRW.
You said last night that you’re going to continue to accumulate shares as the price drops. Just looking to improve the pricing on those extra shares?
Mr. Chang is an exec at Sterling Global, which I understand to be affiliated with Resort Savers/Phoenix Rising, which has had a recent run and (depending on whom you ask) may do so again.
No idea the status of this shell, but I’ve loaded up some shares over the last couple weeks in spite of the O/S being higher than when there was more buzz in 2H20. Rationale being that Sterling seems like a high-quality sponsor and if you’re going to dabble in shell plays, this seems like a good one.
Can't wait to see this Q. Anything better than a total disaster would be proof of concept that PGAS is significantly undervalued. Whether that would bring the attention this needs to break through is an open question that I feel unqualified to answer, because it still amazes me that the PPS was beaten down so badly the past few days. Nonetheless, if a little more patience is required to see this ticker reach something closer to fair value, there have been greater tragedies.
Great post!
Interesting, thanks. It does look like he owns all of the Series A pref. What is strange is that the last Q shows conversion of about 61k Series A shares to common. I could very well believe that he means that he has retained ownership of all of his shares. Lots to like about Jef but precision in communication does not seem to be the strongest attribute.
There are also 1,000 Series B (control) shares that seem to have been returned to Treasury from Rushford pursuant to the merger. Seems that those shares are in corporate as opposed to individual ownership.
From a technical (or any other) standpoint, what is different about how BBRW is trading now versus July ~14-23, which preceded the most recent spike? Only difference I can see is that now we have a high likelihood of an imminent filing.
Fair enough. I was referring to issuance of new shares through an offering. I agree that new debt issuance and certain types of new share issuance must only be reported retroactively in the Q and that creates a blind spot here.
The reason I see new notes as a moot point re: near-term O/S (although certainly relevant to value longer-term), is that we would expect new notes to have 2021+ maturities. That is the case for the new notes disclosed in the last Q under subsequent events. So that's unhelpful from a liabilities on the B/S standpoint, but the related dilution is a 2021 problem.
When we see the Q, we should have a better sense of whether BBRW is turning the corner on sales volume, margins, accumulating sufficient capital reserves to accomplish strategic objectives (repurchases, repayment of debt, etc.) or not.
Correct. Closing PPS as of 3/31, the as of date in the Q where it references 1.5B shares convertible, was $0.0030. Since it seems beyond dispute that the majority of the 1.5B have converted (hence the dilution), it also follows that the majority of shares converted when PPS was above .003, since we have traded generally above that level. Therefore, if anything the # shares ultimately converted related to those specific notes could be <1.5B (before factoring in prepayments for the couple of notes not yet due, etc.).
Good factor to point out, and one that should be net favorable to BBRW shareholders in this instance.
I don't think it's a big assumption for dilution to end. The new shares have to be coming from somewhere: conversion of notes, new issuance, or conversion of pref shares being the main potential sources.
I am not aware of any new issuances occurring. As I've said previously, one of my articles of faith is that BBRW mgmt is not dumb enough to convert any meaningful # of shares right now, and presumably that would result in a beneficial ownership change filing if in any material amount. So that leaves note conversions. As of the last Q, there was a 1.5B share overhang. Once those are done and absent new notes, it's a matter of where could new shares come from?
Right. So the other side of that coin would be to factor in what all of that dilution means for the balance sheet and shareholders' equity. BBRW has been carrying a big derivative liability on the books, and they are also subject to seeing some big valuation swings that hit net income. Absent new notes/dilution from other sources, the conversions we have been witnessing each serve to extinguish some portion of that derivative liability.
My interpretation is that the underlying notes were a consequence of the merger and then also needing working capital more recently. The increase in O/S is an unfortunate consequence of dealing with those situations, but again no surprises (to me, anyway) based on everything that was disclosed previously. My expectation is that, with legacy issues from the merger and the Covid shutdown in the rear-view mirror, we are substantially done with the heavy dilution. Time and the Q will tell, though.
Thank you, I am aware of that resource. Does that memorialize historical O/S data? That is what the other poster was looking for and the guidance I was attempting to provide.
Usually the filing will include the O/S as of the most recent practicable date on the bottom of the first page. So we should see some form of update from the last one on OTCmarkets.com.
I'm aware, thanks. I was telling him what the prior month's O/S was since the previous update is no longer visible.
I don't think anyone who really dug into the last Q thought that 1.2B O/S represented the end of dilution, not given the 1.5B sh convertible overhang that was reported. Others with a shorter-term perspective can disagree, but I do believe that we are in the final stages of dilution. I'd love to grab more shares at the precise bottom here, but in the grand scheme of things I really don't care if that's .0035 or .0029 (or whatever), not very material to my position nor strategy. Feels very close, and similar to the recent .01 spike; this time, if we have ANYTHING positive in the Q, I suspect there will be much more staying power to the run, such that we see a paradigm shift in terms of how people view this company. That is feasible in large part because people are so down on BBRW, but feasible (IMO) nonetheless.
I'm not aware of one. You would have to pull it from a combination of filings and otcmarkets.com (the latter for current month only). For instance, the Q1 10-Q notes O/S as of filing date, plus as of the last day of the quarter (potentially last day of previous quarter as well, don't have it in front of me now).
Others can fact check me but O/S was 509M as of the prior otcmarkets.com update, going from memory.
Great stuff - loving the updates from the interview! Haven't been able to listen first-hand yet so thank you to all the posters summarizing and posting highlights.
R2T, I’m flattered but certainly far from the most informed around here. Chalk my relative silence up to getting my butt kicked at the ol’ day job and temporary obsession with some crypto plays.
I’m definitely in this through earnings and expect I’ll keep a decent amount of shares longer. Full disclosure, because I started buying this before the Q1 earnings crash, my basis is around 0.01. If I were in your shoes at .004, heck yeah I’d sell some at +150% or in that zip code. What proportion is your call, but would never fault someone for capitalizing on a great entry.
I continue to be optimistic about Q2 financials and BBRW generally. As jaesmooth and others have emphasized, there is more to interpreting the Q than just revenue, but there’s really only one direction to go in that department if these guys are for real (as I believe they are). I do worry that if the O/S count has ticked up slightly (which is possible and would not alarm me), that could trigger panic and overshadow even good news in the Q. That fear is mitigated by the fact that I’ve gotten comfortable with a longer time horizon here given why I believe to be substantial potential upside in the longer term.
There’s still hair on the ball, although not IMO enough to warrant the histrionics we’ve read here. Based on everything I know today, I’m rolling with my intact sell orders for this, based on which I would sell ~1/3 of my shares in the ~0.02-0.06 range for 1.75x initial capital invested. By my usual standards, that’s a very optimistic exit trajectory, but based on all the research and my own personal circumstances, I would rather wait than cash out a substantial portion of my shares so far below what I believe could be near-/intermediate-term PPS levels.
Only one man’s opinion, but rest assured my candle for BBRW hasn’t dimmed. Happy trading!
And I am asking what information in their next Q would constitute verification in your mind? $1M in revenue? $5M?
Darkside, what revenue multiple would you apply to value a company such as BBRW? If you don't have one, what other metric(s) would you say are more appropriate? I understand that you think this is a scam, but I want to give you an opportunity to defend your thought process beyond stating that you don't find their PRs credible. What quantum of Q2 reported revenue would cause you to reconsider your opinion of BBRW and the prospects of shareholders who bought in at the levels represented on this board ($.04, .01, .025, etc.)?
You're not kidding! Fingers crossed for a satisfying and profitable end to the week!
Terrible volume today, but the trade data is showing it as almost all buys. I just raised the price on all my sell orders. This reminds me of the trading last Thur/Fri before the spike up into the .07s.
This feels like we're in the loading zone. Seeing a lot of trades with prices out to the fifth decimal. Others with more technical analysis chops can call the point/price of reversal, but it seems close.
Looks like more bot-type posting on Twitter. Makes me think there is some sort of a pump coming, in addition to whatever else the market will do before and after earnings.
There was a ~couple week period in July during which some gigantic t-trades, apparently buys, were being posted practically every day. The two leading theories to explain this were buyback or MMs loading the stockpiles. General sentiment seems to be that no repurchasing has occurred (yet). If so, it seems plausible that MMs, having had ample opportunity to load up on shares in the mid .00s, are now incentivized to let this run and maximize their profit from the accumulated inventory.
Throw in decent revenue/earnings in excess of billings/AR growth reported in the next 10-q and all of a sudden BBRW would be perceived as a great, emerging opportunity again. People overlook that, essentially, the investor credibility gap is the result of one bad Q. The 1H20 dream of BBRW was built on revenue growth; one $2m quarter would = 400% Y/Y run rate annualized, which could very well result in people going bananas.
Points being I don’t think it’s that far fetched and I see more and more forces aligning long here.
What makes you confident that it hasn't already started?
Thanks for the mechanical engineering perspective. I am decidedly unqualified to assess BBRW in that department!
You may have already come across this, but a fellow with the handle fab_motors on Intragram appears to be one of their welders and posts a lot of detailed pictures of work in progress. I'd be curious if you've seen his posts and whether they support your opinion of BBRW's craftsmanship.
Thanks for your responses to clarify your positions.
Here's where I have the breakdown in terms of agreeing with your logic. I do not believe that any of the PR statements have materially and conclusively been disproved at this juncture. In part, that is because of how carefully worded the PRs were.
It's fair for me to note that none of the PR statements can really be proven conclusively to be true, either, although I obviously fall in the more optimistic camp there and have presented evidence in certain cases.
Just by way of example, I have wondered if the Q/Q increase in A/R related to completion of the first CBD extraction systems. I don't know, but I think it's (way) too early to say that it was all smoke.
Hobo Joe, respectfully, how often do you read Qs? A going concern tag isn’t something to strive for, but is incredibly common in growth (and plenty of established, perceived to be solid) companies.
One-day chart so far looks like Zorro dropped acid and went to town.
Anyone have strong opinions about NITE (MM)? Huge block on the ask and a very significant bid .0002 below it.
Agree with you there — a PR alone is acceptable disclosure.
Tiger, to your question, everything I’ve read says a PR suffices.
In addition to the heads up element, disclosure of plans to do an open market buyback is a requirement to comply with securities law. Definitely not my area of expertise but it falls under rule 10b-18.
I agree. Left relatively unsaid in all the discussion about the (apparent) note conversions is how dramatically they should clean up BBRW’s balance sheet. The derivative liability has been a millstone around the neck of shareholder equity for BBRW, as well as an uncontrollable factor hitting net income (by virtue of valuation changes). If that balance is significantly reduced, as I believe many of us suspect, it would both objectively improve the B/S and subjectively simplify the story of the BrewBilt value proposition. Worth noting that since many of the notes seem to have converted since 6/30, that’s probably a Q3 reduction, but nonetheless another piece of good news on the horizon.
Side note: In looking back at the last 10-Q, impressive how Jef & Co. mitigated a ~$300k Q/Q revenue loss into a ~$20k Q/Q operating loss increase, seemingly without payroll being reduced (meaning that however many dudes Jimmy saw working there are appreciative and want to see the business thrive). Meanwhile their gross margin, however crummy the sales, went from ~7% to ~44%.
We’ll know one way or another what BrewBilt is all about sometime in 2020, but these last couple weeks, as well as deeper digging further back, have made me more optimistic than ever about our chances here.
Great to hear - thank you!
Could you get a sense of how much equipment is in various stages of completion in the shop?
Yes, disappointing day. At least the ask is back up to .049 now
Yeah it sure seems that way. I do wonder if some of those asks are icebergs and/or if there's a little bit of a "lull them into the open field" trap happening. Nonetheless, happy to a potential path and thrilled with any price jumps we can gain/sustain before earnings.
We are getting jerked around it seems but think we're moving toward breaking free -- I feel like we catch back up to that buy. Right now it's any which way but loose!
You are a true team player! Starting to look really nice.
Seems like more eyes coming...volume is fantastic. Ask just moved to .055 - nice!
Good summary. Seems like our biggest challenge right now (besides lack of awareness) if CDEL, in particular, trying to tamp it down. Their ask is almost a full cent lower than next lowest right now, until NITE came in and undercut.
I think this will get the momentum we need to get a very solid run going, but it's probably going to be agonizing as we see-saw for a while.
I'm fine with whatever price today. Not interested in a technical reversal, interested in a reported revenue-based spike, and I'm willing to wait for it.
What stinks about today is the volume. Hopefully it picks up as the PPS enters folks' loading zone.