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We are only days away from SpoozToolz V2.0. This is very exciting. I am amazed we are still in the pps doldrums.
I am eager to try this product out when it is available. I tried the SpoozToolz V1.0 software and was impressed. I am anxious to see what new features V2.0 brings with it.
Has anyone else on here taken the SpoozToolz for a spin? Just curious. I considered it to be part of my due diligence of Spooz. Kick the tires and see how it does.
cwoody
BIG Volume today. You need to go back to March when this stock was in the 0.04 range to find such a large volume day. SPZI is gaining some much needed interest. This is good.
cwoody
LOL. If you take a look at prior southendstockpickers.com recommendations, they had XKEM as a "MEGA BONUS BUY" back in December with a target of $0.45 in the short term and $7 in the long term. XKEM is still at $0.02.
I am long on Spooz, and I have done my DD. However, I never appreciate the pump-and-dump crowd. Yes, it will elevate stock price in the short term, but what happens then?
I still think we are poised at a very oportune point in the road for Spooz. The shares are cheap, the product launch is very soon, a new revenue stream and possibly an uplisting. What is there not to like?
I hope southendstockpickers got this one right.....
cwoody
The latest PRs are a great step in the direction of solidifying a top product. I think everyone here who saw the last bump up on STv1 knows what we need is not just a strong product launch but one which makes $$. I think this stock will only jump up to those multi-penny values when we have some PRs announcing large sales agreements that guarantee a revenue stream into Spooz.
cwoody
Keeping busy with other activities and quietly accumulating Spooz. I still like what I see and I am patiently waiting.
Gee... Wild rumors on RB are far more accurate than calling the company? Sometimes I wonder how people do their DD. Ha!
woody
I also had an order open all day for a buy at 0.004. No luck. Perhaps Monday.
woody
Interesting development. Typically such "private label" concepts are intially driven by a customer. I wonder if they have one for FractalZ....
-woody
Yep. Picked up a few more bargain basement shares.
Anyone with shares under 0.02 will do well over the next few weeks...
cwoody
If the Ameritrade deal works out and news is posted relative to AMTD (Ameritrade), we will get a ton of exposure. Seems like the SPZI news posts don't make much of a splash except with the 1200 current holders (us). We need new investors. Everyone here is loaded to the teeth.
cwoody
I like what I hear. I guess the most amazing aspect of all this is the PPS. You would expect a gradual rise over time with the number of product releases and partnerships lined up. We may get a major spike up rather than a gradual climb. Fine with me. I'm all in.
cwoody
Ok. So he filed to sell up to 2.6M shares and only has transacted about 400K. This amount is small. In the Sept-05 report from Spooz, it looks like Paul has 169M shares which sounds about right for a CEO/founder.
Even if he did sell 2.6M shares, it is a drop in the bucket for what he owns, and amounts to very little return. Perhaps he needed to pay for the wedding? If I saw him unloading 30,40 or 50M shares, I might be much more nervous.
cwoody
I couldn't agree more Allie. It is a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor.
cwoody
Thanks drifter. I see all these posts complaining about the current pps, and trying to calculate what it should be. The current pps is what it should be until we have big news, audited financials and product revenue.
Many investors wont touch this stock until it starts to put these items together. When they do, we should skyrocket.
We will go up, but it will take some effort.
So why are we at these levels?
IMHO for a few reasons:
1) Who is Spooz? They are not very well known. We need a few very BIG PRs, such as landing a large brokerage to make a splash large enough to be seen by many new investors.
2) Can we trust what we hear from Spooz management? To solve this, Spooz will need to go fully audited - they are in the process and hopefully we will see results soon.
3) Product revenue - this will come with Spooz Toolz V2 and Fractal Cubed. Both really cool products. But we aren't likely to see much until next year as far as revenue.
Spooz has an interesting year ahead of them. They are going to release newer versions of products, make new partnerships, and drive revenue/sales and move in the direction of profitability.
In my mind, this is the ground floor, so hold on. The current PPS fluctuates with very light volume, but we seem to have a solid floor at 0.01. I do not think it will be long before we start to see the volume tick up as it gets greater exposure.
cwoody
pinksheets.com will post monthly data. If you look up SPZI you will see:
Symbol Security Name Venue Month/Year Short Interest Percentage Change Average Daily Share Volume Days to Cover
SPZI SPOOZ INC Pink Sheets 08/2006 84,018 1945.23 1,046,270 1.00
cwoody
Allie, no ptoblem on the repost. Sorry I got you confused with Wing.
Quite heavy volume to start the day off. Perhaps we may head into the positive territory?
Wing I do not mind you reposting. Anything I say on here is fair game.
cwoody
If anyone relies on message boards for their buy and sell indicators, they should just send me their money instead. I have a bridge forsale.
cwoody
I have seen too many fake companies on the pink sheets. I tend to steer clear of investment firms, mining and oil on the pinksheets. Too difficult to determine their stories. I stay in my area of expertise, technology, which is software, energy, networking and hardware. Maybe some pharmaceutical as well.
With software comapnies it is easier to determine if their story is true or not. Try the software. I would have expected everyone on here to try it on the 2 week free trial as part of their DD.
I was impressed with the ease of use and how fast it was. I have used and worked with many professional trading software packages in the past, either helping individuals get them running smoothly, or trying them out. The common problem with all of them is that they are all cumbersome, slow, and very very proprietary. Try to do something like hook something up that is out of the ordinary, and you will be out of luck. They are expensive to boot.
Spooz will rule this market in time. It is cheap, fast and it ties directly into a Microsoft product which simplifies the upgrade path and limits the number of technical issues they may see. It also allows for easy upgrade, and the ability to work with other 3rd party modules. Something nobody else has.
I have worked with software similar to the SPooz tools in other areas of the industry. For example, data aquisition. I have used products that allow me to capture analog signal data directly into Excel. Far better than proprietary software since it allowed me to graph and calculate with the data with my own functions along with their pre-defined functions. Ultimate flexibility and ease of use.
cwoody
Both software tools have a HUGE potenital. I think the numbers they posted in their latest release for revenue targets are very conservative. I wouldn't be surprised to see them exceed targets by a large margin.
I think this is an awesome piece of software. Very powerful and extensible. Not only can this be used in securities trading, but in many other markets for prediciting. They will need to market this well, but it can become a big seller.
I like Spooz Toolz as well. I have used the latest version via the 2 week trial demo, and it is very powerful and very fast.
Overall, Spooz has a very very good portfolio of products. Now it is time to make some $$!
cwoody
I agree with you Wing. Hebroots does not bring valid arguments to this or the Spooz bb. His antangonizing posts on the Spooz BB are quite sad. Paul set up that forum for valid questions and discussions, not sensless bashing.
He claims he owns shares, and I bet when the PPS does rise, he will be the first to take credit for his superior DD ability and cheer his supposed massive gains.
cwoody
Do you actually own any of this stock Hebroots? How much lunch money did you sink into it?
You are correct. This would assume about 15K seats. Also not out of the question depending on which brokers they strike deals up with. This would bode well for the CY'08 revenue projections pushing them into the 15M+ area assuming no additional growth. Assuming growth, we could see 30M+. Not too shabby. Again, all speculation on my part.
I anxiously await news of broker deals and financial audits. This will give us a good idea of the internal burn rate for current activities and how deep their pockets are for a marketing blitz. It will also give us some meat to determine how many seats they could sell.
How to get to $7M+ in revenue: Anyone can do the math, but at $89/month per product (Spooz Toolz and Fractal Cubed), they would only need to sell 7000 seats total to exceed the $7M in revenue projections.
One nice brokerage deal would probably push them beyond this number. Plus I bet they will realize revenue from add on products to Spooz Toolz.
Spooz Toolz V2, Fractal Cubed and any upgrades to those two will be a nice portfolio of products to sell next year. I think they can top their $7M estimate.
cwoody
My bet is that we will not see profitability in '07. Any revenue $7M or more will be driven back into company growth and marketing efforts.
Does this discourage me? No. The only path to true growth requires spending $$ to grow your market. Marketing their software, hiring support and sales perople, as well as more developers are all in the future. I want this company to grow, and not be content with just $7M in sales. I want to see a path to many 10s of millions in revenue and earnings to follow.
cwoody
I agree with you that a PSR (price to sales ratio) for $7M would not be favorable. We would probably be overvalued at this point. The important point here is that they will now start to realize sales revenue.
What I think needs to be considered is the "potential sales" for a year or two from now. The sales growth will be most important. Can a $7M sales the first year grow to $15M+ the following year? When will a company become profitable?
I expect it will be a year or two before Spooz will become profitable. It will be expensive to market their product to grow their sales revenue. Can they experience tripple digit growth? Can they get to profitibility in a year or two? All valid questions.
cwoody
I have to use the AON as well. I have been burned in the past with fills that are worth less than the commission and even by end of day, unable to fill the remainder.
I have had bad luck with Spooz buy orders only getting filled with 500 shares before the MMs drive the ask up.
cwoody
$7M revenue target for '07... interesting...
Taken from the blog - interesting read!!!
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Technical Analysis RIP
A battle rages between those who say the financial markets are theoretically impossible to beat and those who say, “Hey, look at me, I’m a billionaire.” On one side are the Nobel laureates, ensconced in the University of Chicago Business School, who are renowned for developing equations describing “efficient”, that is, unbeatable markets. On the other side are the speculators who beat them year in, year out with techniques “proven” not to work. But what if there were a system that did work, a method for finding patterns in chaos, for predicting trillion-dollar markets that most people assume are random? The predictors who discover this Holy Grail will be lords of the realm. They will possess a wonder-working money machine capable of producing a sweet fountain of cash. They will be rich, famous, and free. - The Predictors
Say Goodbye to Technical Analysis as We Know It
I have been a trader for some 25 years. I have held seats on exchanges, developed complex theoretical models for trading options, engaged in sophisticated arbitrage techniques and developed dozens of trading models and systems. I have traded futures, stocks, options on futures, stock options, ETFs, Forex, Mutual Funds, Bonds, and almost every commodity imaginable including Levis blue jeans. All of my experience leads me to some conclusions about the markets, and one of them is that, as a price predictor, “technical analysis” is one of the most successful scams ever thrust on a public willing to risk almost anything for a mere glimpse of the Holy Grail.
The irony of technical analysis is that marketers efforts to sell predictive qualities to the public have been so successful that technical analysis can not be ignored. The fact that technicals predict a target price for a market, and the fact that the market reaches that price may not be coincidental. It is my belief that technical analysis is worthless in predicting future events from history, but that it can give insight into how other traders might react under various market conditions. If the S&P 500 establishes a break through a long-standing uptrend line, an acceleration of declining prices is likely to be established by traders, not because the line was there, but because everyone knows the line was there. In a certain way, technical analysis is a self fulfilling prophecy only because so many people have been sold a bill of goods.
I can see how this happened. I am, and have always been, fascinated with charts. Bar charts, candlesticks, market profiles, equivolume … you name it. In fact, I believe there is a certain artistic quality to price charts. It is easy to understand why people would be compelled to play with charts especially when the alternative would be to develop the skills to read a one-inch wide strip of paper endlessly produced by a ticker tape machine. I imagine the first technical analysis began with someone drawing a trendline on a bar chart that represented the price history of a stock of interest to them. Then came the pattern recognition techniques where multiple lines were drawn on a chart to outline recognizable forms given creative names like “bull flag”, “bear pennant”, or “head and shoulders”.
The next step in the evolutionary process was the realization that all of these lines could be described mathematically and that data could be analyzed through various applications of statistical techniques. The billions of man years spent in research since the 1950s have provided us with a plethora of technical tools that have the ability to project prices into the future using zero delay stochastic filters and Gaussian distribution models. It’s telling that the S&P 500 future (the “Spooz”) suffered a single day price move of six standard deviations only five years after its inception, something that should statistically occur once in thousands of years.
Why did technical analysis evolve as it did? I believe the answer is simple. It evolved because there was nothing else at that time to rely upon. There were no powerful computers that could crunch enough numbers to define a system as dynamic and complex as the markets. It evolved in the same way that the railroads developed as a viable form of transportation. If you wanted to get from north to south quickly, you had no choice but to buy a ticket on the City of New Orleans. In the same way as the railroads went for public transportation (please note that I still ride a train every day), the time is through for the astute trader. Technical analysis based upon Gaussian statistical models has sadly, become old and stale for the astute trader desiring an edge in this century.
The Holy Grail?
Does the Holy Grail really exist? What an irrelevant question. The fact is that it is highly unlikely we will ever know the answer to that question. However, if I answer the question, “Yes, there certainly is a Holy Grail”, it would be most difficult for anyone to argue because I may be able to prove there is a Grail, while no one can prove there isn’t one. The reason for this argument is that we have entered into a new age with the advent of powerful, generally available computers. These computers provide us a window to view systems in ways we couldn’t even imagine twenty years ago.
The reason technical analysis, as it is generally employed, does not work, is because the underlying premise is flawed. The mathematical basis of modern technical analysis attempts to define straight lines in a statistical world that assumes prices are distributed normally. The problem is that prices (like almost anything else in nature) are not distributed normally. This was proven again, like many times before, in October of 1987. Fortunately, there is a new mathematics that is 10,000 times more accurate at predicting price behavior than the methods we have discussed here.
Chaos theory has only been in existence since the early 1990s. The fact that its discovery and development coincides with the computer revolution is not coincidental. Chaos is a new mathematics that explains curved lines rather than straight ones. In other words, Chaos addresses non-linear complex systems. The markets are proven to be non-linear complex systems.
Ceres
Ceres is the traders bar located on the ground floor of the Chicago Board of Trade. In its heyday, Ceres was arguably one of the world’s Meccas for traders to meet and discuss anything and everything having to do with trading, not to mention that Ceres provides the most potent liquid refreshment available anywhere. I met Erik Long in Ceres many years ago. When I was introduced to him he was talking with a commercial real estate broker who was seeking Erik’s ideas on the theoretical valuation of unimproved real estate. I sat and listened to Erik’s ideas on predictors in a non-linear world. I was totally fascinated by what he had to say and the eloquence with which he said it.
Long after the real estate broker left us, Erik and I were still talking. I took the position that undeveloped real estate could be valued in exactly the same way as a deep in-the-money call option. He was debating my ideas at a much higher level than anyone before and hitting every curve ball I threw at him out of the park. Erik Long and I formed a friendship that evening that will last a lifetime, not to mention the money we will make together by employing his ideas to trade the financial markets.
On October 16th, Spooz will introduce market price predictive technology that heretofore only existed in the most secretive corners of deep-pocketed institutions. For the first time, Spooz will be proud to introduce the public to chaos theory and fractal time series analysis in the same form as it was applied shortly after chaos was developed in the early 1990s and technical analysis, as we knew it, can rest in peace.
The Spooz Holy Grail
I can hear some of you thinking, “Nice story, Paul, but let’s cut to the chase.”
Spooz looks for technologies that are in their early stages of development but that have a huge potential in the market place.
1. October 16 - Fractalz³ EOD – This product represents for its target market a first-to-market advantage. Spooz currently has a multi-faceted marketing plan that will pre-sell this product directly and through brokers. The introductory price will be $89 per month including end-of-day (EOD) historical data from the Spooz servers. The markets covered will be domestic equities, options, futures and Forex. Although Fractalz³ has been operational for some time, Spooz will utilize the auto update feature extensively. Spooz will supply technical support for the brokers and direct sales. The marketing plan will be supported by email, web advertising, value added resellers, brokerage distribution channels and direct sales. See www.fractalz3.com.
2. Early Q1 2007 – SpoozToolz v. 2.0 – This product represents a first-to-market at almost every level, with the possible exception of low latency, institutional proprietary trading. (In reality, we will achieve entry to this market because we believe it will come to us as a result of our middleware component that removes the lion’s share of the processing requirements from Excel. This middleware provides the ability to create large spreadsheets containing complex math at high computational speeds. The SpoozToolz Application middleware is, in and of itself, a potential enterprise product offering.) The product will be offered at an introductory price of $89 per month. The marketing plan will be supported by email, direct mail, trade publication advertising, value added resellers, brokerage distribution cannels and direct sales. Our research, together with other industry knowledge, leads us to believe that it is possible for sales of this product to become explosive in the latter half of 2007. Spooz has conservatively projected 2007 sales at approximately $7 million, however, we believe the potential exists for them to be far greater.
3. Early Q1 - Fractalz³ v. 1.00 – This product will employ the same math as the EOD product except that it can be applied to bid/ask data and market depth. It will utilize SpoozToolz as its electronic execution platform, will employ Excel as its GUI, and will communicate with SpoozToolz through the SpoozToolz Application API. Fractalz³ will become the first “third-party” application to Spooz.
4. Early Q1 – Extended Options Module – This product is another “third party” application that allows options traders to build complex trading models by employing several different theoretical valuation models, or for that matter, your own if you are fortunate enough to have one lying around. This application will allow users to calculate and graph risk sensitivities and complex positions in an Excel environment which, again, provides a first-to-market advantage. Extended options will be deployed in the form of a modular plug-in and priced as an add-on to the base $89 SpoozToolz.
As of this writing, all development is on schedule and multiple patents are being penned.
By the end of Q1 next year, Spooz will launch several software products that will establish the underpinnings of a complimentary product portfolio that will appeal to a huge global market, and this, represents Holy Grail for Spooz.
www.spooz.com
At first I thought this was a joke, but it doesn't look that way. Time to start tossing a few questions his way.
Is this a new Spooz Website? http://www.spoozcts.com/
cwoody
Tempers are starting to flare. Always an issue when there is much on the line. From what I saw, the ASK has been at 0.014 all day and the BID has been at 0.011 (or 0.012) most of the day.
My buy executed at 0.014 today.
-cwoody
Last time I pulled the all or none off, all I got was 500 shares before they bumped the ask up. Damn MMs
For several hours this afternoon I saw the ask at 0.013, yet I couldn't get a fill of about 200K shares at 0.013. I cannot imagine anyone having success flipping this stock at these levels.
couldn't get a fill @ .013 today. Trying to add to my position. Maybe tomorrow.
a pps rise is upon us, and I am tempted to say we may never see these levels again.
cwoody