Trading the Forex
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yep and I am stuck in it for now
I think he is trying to make me relapse lol haven't scalped in a long time but I did love the thrill
well I am in the red on GU right now and I might get out of EU to get in AU we'll see
OK I might have to go try it on oanda then.
yeah I agree being very stubborn we'll see what happens at the bell though
looks good there, so are you saying that when it breaks above or below the cloud you go in?
GU is being stubborn but might ride this eu down a little further for now
GU looks like it set up to have a nice fall here imo
Euro Shrugs Off a Miss in German Retail Sales
German Retail Sales missed expectations printing at -0.9% versus forecasts of a flat reading, but rose 3.1% on a year over year basis in real terms. The annual figures were slightly exaggerated by the fact that June had on extra shopping day in comparison with 2009. Overall, sales of food and tobacco were up 1.0% on the year while non-food items rose 5.1%.
Today’s miss on the Retail Sales front was the first piece of economic data from EZ to disappoint this week, suggesting that final demand in the region’s largest economy remains muted as consumers recover from the worst recession in post war history. So far this year’s Retail Sales results have been highly uneven with 3 months down, three up and one month flat indicating that retail demand is still attempting to stabilize before it can begin to increase steadily as growth improves.
The markets however, ignored the news on the consumer front as EUR/USD rebounded off its Asian session lows to trade at 1.3075 at the European open. With little other event risk on the calendar today with the exception of EU unemployment due at 9:00GMT the pair could trade sideways consolidating its recent gains. The primary focus of the day will be US GDP data due 12:30 GMT which could have strong impact on risk flows for the rest of the day.
Top Stories
* German Retail Sales miss their mark -0.9% vs. 0.0% eyed
* Chinese PMI rumored to have slipped below 50
* Nikkei drops -1.64%, Europe lower -0.6%
* Oil drops below $78/bbl
* Gold quiet at $1168/oz.
Overnight Eco
* AUD Private Sector Credit m/m 0.2% vs. 0.4%
* JPY Manufacturing PMI 52.8 vs. 53.9
* JPY Household Spending y/y 0.5% vs. -0.8%
* JPY Tokyo Core CPI y/y -1.3% vs. -1.2%
* JPY Prelim Industrial Production m/m -1.5% vs. 0.2%
* JPY Housing Starts y/y 0.6% vs. 1.7%
* NZD Building Consents m/m 3.5% vs. -9.5%
* EUR German Retail Sales m/m -0.9% vs. 0.0%
* EUR Unemployment Rate 10%
* GBP GfK Consumer Confidence -22 vs. -21
Event Risk on Tap
* CAD GDP m/m
* USD Advance GDP q/q
* USD Advance GDP Price Index q/q
* USD Employment Cost Index q/q
* USD Chicago PMI
* USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
* USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
Price Action
* USD/JPY conitinues to move lower to 86.30 as fears over US growth weigh
* AUD/USD remains within reach of .9000 on month end flows
* GBP/USD quiet around 1.5600
* EUR/USD drops below 1.3050 as profit taking kicks in
Euro ran into a wall of profit taking falling against the dollar and all the other major currencies in early European trade today, after German Retail Sales missed their mark and risk aversion fears spread ahead of the US GDP data due later in the day. German Retail Sales printed at -0.9% versus expectations of a flat number producing the first negative economic surprise from the region this week. The data was especially shocking given the improvement in consumer sentiment surveys and better than expected readings in business and labor market gauges. The news suggests that the final demand in the 16 member union remains fragile as the consumer attempts to recover for the worst recession in the post war era.
The sharp decline in the Retail Sales numbers took the wind out of the euro rally and after staging a modest attempt to retake the 1.3100 handle, the pair came under heavy selling assault dropping to a low of 1.3027 before finding near term support. As we noted earlier, “So far this year’s Retail Sales results have been highly uneven with 3 months down, three up and one month flat indicating that retail demand is still attempting to stabilize before it can begin to increase steadily as growth improves.” Meanwhile, the pressure on the euro is likely to remain for the rest of the night and could accelerate if the US GDP data prints below expectations, reviving fears of a global slowdown in growth in H2 of 2010.
The risk trade was also hampered by rumors that next week’s Chinese PMI data may print below 50 indicating a slip into contraction territory in more than a year. If that were the case that would certainly trigger more risk aversion flows with USD/JPY likely slipping to test the 85.00 figure in the foreseeable future. The pair made a feeble attempt to break above the 88.00 handle this week, but yesterday’s dour US Durable Goods numbers quashed any hopes for a sustained rally as US yields once again slipped below 3% on the 10 year.
Today in North America the GDP data at 12:30 GMT and the Chicago PMI readings at 13:45 GMT could prove to be the critical factors to directionality as we move into the weekend. The GDP is forecast at 2.5% versus 2.7% the period prior, but with deterioration in US retail sales and trade in Q2, the possibility of weaker than projected print in relatively high. Furthermore, while the GDP news will offer the market a look at the past, the Chicago PMI report could provide traders with a glimpse of the future and to that extent may be the more important piece of news to consider. Expectations are already low at 56.1 versus 59.1 but if the PMI report prints even lower it could unleash a larger wave of profit taking into the close of the week with USD/JPY likely breaking the 86.00 barrier while euro gives up the 1.3000 figure that it took out just yesterday.
FX Upcoming
Currency GMT EST Release Expected Prior
CAD 12:30 8:30 GDP m/m 0.1% 0.0%
USD 12:30 8:30 Advance GDP q/q 2.5% 2.7%
USD 12:30 8:30 Advance GDP Price Index q/q 1.1% 1.1%
USD 12:30 8:30 Employment Cost Index q/q 0.5% 0.6%
USD 13:45 9:45 Chicago PMI 56.1 59.1
USD 13:55 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 67.5 66.5
USD 13:55 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 2.9%
yeah but too bad I couldn't go in because I was already in 2 other trades. can't over leverage
yes sir no pr more pr's while they dump millions to billions of shares on us. The more we put in the forex the more we get out
boom my friend our GU and EU trades are sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeet
Love waking up like that
congrats love to hear that keep on truckin on
AUD/USD Technically Topped Out
After drifting down to .8900 support during yesterday's NA session, the AUD/USD posted a relatively aggressive rally during Asian trading finally topping out near 90.40 prior to today's NA open. This unsuccessful effort to eclipse last week's top near 90.70--just below major daily pattern completion near .9100--suggests a potential shift in longer-term momentum especially considering yesterday's dovish NZD fundamentals which were highlighted in this morning's NZD feature, " Kiwi Lower off RBNZ Statement - End of Commdollar Rally?"
Most notably, GFT's director of currency research, Boris Schlossberg, states, "With both the RBA and the RBNZ now likely to remain stationary well into the fall, as their respective economies absorb the latest round of monetary tightening, the Aussie and the kiwi may begin to underperform the other high beta FX currencies as speculative interest moves elsewhere. Although both commdollars sport relatively high yields, the lack of any further rate hikes for the foreseeable future could cap the upside going forward."
From a technical standpoint, this means the AUD/USD is at a tipping point. The dovish concerns Boris points out suggest the current top just below major bearish geometric pattern completion at .9100 may hold (see daily chart below) meaning more aggressive traders may look to establish a short position near current levels (~.90) , whereas more conservative traders may look to hold off and either wait for a final drive to pattern completion and short the AUD/NZD at .9094, or wait for prices to close below current bull trend line support (see 8hr chart). A relatively conservative target of .8817 sits just above initial 38.2% support of CD, however, extended targets of .8600 and .8450 may come into play.
Potential strategy: Sell if prices rally to .9094 risking .9178 targeting .8817.
37 DAYS UNTIL COLLEGE FOOTBALL BABY OOOOOOOOOOH YEEEEEEEEEEAH!!!!!
I agree completely
yeah but eventually there will have to be a retrace soon imo
EU is looking better also right now
GU looking better right now
sounds sweet to me
lloooooooooooolllllllllllllllllll
WELL lets pray to to the forex gods to intervene lol
Jobless Claims and IMF on China
Apparently the SIXTH time is the charm for the EUR/USD, which has finally burst comfortably through the 1.30 level. At this point, a deep retracement would be needed to cause the EUR/USD to end the NY trading session below 1.30. Anything can happen during the North American session but with no major event risk left for the day, the better than expected jobless claims report favors a move above 1.31.
The latest jobless claims report shows improvement in the U.S. labor market. Even though weekly jobless claims and the less volatile 4 week moving average remains above 450k, the fact that claims did not rise for the second week in a row is a relief. Weekly claims fell 11k to 457k. However it is cold relief as the amount of continuing claims rose by 1.8 percent to 4.565 million. The unemployment roll remains massive and it will take some time before it comes down from stratosphere, letting the rays of sunshine back into the U.S. economy. Despite the better than expected jobless claims report and the pickup in risk appetite, the dollar continued to sell-off against the Japanese Yen after Bernanke put a knife through the dollar last week.
Flip-flopping by the IMF?
Meanwhile, the IMF continues to make comments about the China and its currency after their annual staff consultations with the Chinese government. Earlier this week in the summary of their annual review on Chinese policies, it appeared that the IMF softened their tone on Yuan revaluation by saying that the Yuan is only undervalued and not "substantially undervalued." However this morning, the IMF returned to their view of substantial undervaluation of the Yuan. This flip-flopping is a clear indication of how difficult it is for foreign bodies to get their hands Yuan policy. The IMF believes that over the next 5 years, China's current account surplus will reach 8 percent of GDP, a forecast that China does not agree with. Unsurprisingly, the IMF and China also disagreed on the currency. The IMF said this morning that the People's Bank of China believes inflation is benign and therefore they see "less need" to raise interest rates. After China announced a more flexible Yuan policy before the G20 meeting, some economy watchers believed they would follow up with a rate hike later this year but the IMF's latest comments suggest otherwise because the PBoC is worried that higher rates would spur capital inflow.
ok I'm in 1.3082 yes the daily is at 3124 major resistance
I will join you there it's on a 1200 pip run gotta end soon imo
IHUB was working half the time yesterday
Top Stories
* RBNZ Hikes Rates to 3% but signals a halt to future hikes
* Germnan unemployment in line at -20K
* Shanghai hits 2 month high, Europe up mildly
* Oil slips below $77/bbl
* Gold at $1166/oz. last
Overnight Eco
* JPY Retail Sales y/y 3.2% vs . 3.3%
* NZD Official Cash Rate 3.0%
* NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
* NZD Trade Balance 276M vs. 359M
* EUR German Unemployment Change
* GBP Nationwide HPI m/m -0.5% vs. -0.2%
* GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 0.6B vs. 1.3B eyed
* GBP Final Mortgage Approvals 48K as expected
Event Risk on Tap
* CAD RMPI m/m expected at 1.1%
* CAD IPPI m/m expected at 0.6%
* USD Unemployment Claims expected at 456K
Price Action
* USD/JPY drops back to 87.10 before bouncing as margin rule change triggers liquidation
* AUD/USD recovers .9000 as risk appetite rises
* GBP/USD holds above 1.5600 in quiet trade but decline net lending weighs slightly
* EUR/USD takes out 1.3050 as eco data shows improvement
Risk FX enjoyed a mild rally in early European trade but failure to produce yet another upside economic surprise caused EUR/USD to stall just ahead of the key 1.3050 level. (Note as we go press the euro has taken out the 1.3050 handily and now looks ready to target 1.3100) German unemployment reported right in line with expectations as -20,000 jobless were taken off the rolls versus forecast of -19,000 while the adjusted unemployment rate remained at 7.6%.
The markets were primed for another upside reading given the strong PMI and IFO reports last week, and the in-line print took some of the momentum away from the bulls. However, the labor data tonight continue to point to an improving economic picture in Eurozone’s largest economy and provides further fundamental support for the euro. The decline in joblessness along with better readings from sentiment surveys suggest that tomorrow’s German Retail Sales could beat expectations and add yet more momentum to the virtuous cycle as the consumer joins the economic recovery in the region.
The single currency made yet another run at 1.3050 level at the start of European trade but just failed to take out stops. Nevertheless, barring any sudden waves of risk aversion, currency traders now believe it is only matter of time that the level will fall given the generally positive risk environment in capital markets today as the Shanghai index hit a 2 month high. (Note as we go press the euro has taken out the 1.3050 handily and now looks ready to target 1.3100)
In Asia Pacific the news a bit more subdued as the RBNZ raised rates as expected to 3% but offered a more somber outlook on the future stating that “the pace and extent of further official rate increases is likely to be more moderate than projected in the June statement.” We noted yesterday that given the weak reading in NBNZ confidence survey the chances of RNBZ halt were high. Today’s New Zealand Trade Balance data which missed the mark by printing at 276M versus 359M eyed, suggests that kiwi economy is indeed slowing down with exports declining by more than 9%.
In North America today, the focus will fall on the weekly jobless claims number with markets anticipating an improvement to 457K from 464K the period prior. If the number exceeds the estimates and breaks below the key 450K level, it could spur another wave of risk assumption and push the EUR/USD through 1.3100 in early New York trade. As we wrote yesterday, with fears over the double dip recession scenario quickly evaporating, currency markets have adopted a clear pro-risk bias and any eco data that even mildly supports that thesis is likely to provide a boost for high beta FX.
FX Upcoming
Currency GMT EST Release Expected Prior
CAD 12:30 8:30 RMPI m/m 1.1% -7.2%
CAD 12:30 8:30 IPPI m/m 0.6% 0.3%
USD 12:30 8:30 Unemployment Claims 456K 464K
out NJ with 100pips, not so much with GU lol
62 would be a nice place to exit but don't know if I can hold that long lol
well right now it looks like GU & NJ were good short entries so we are fine and in the green so far
EU just can't break 1.30 for nothing right now
Durable Goods and Beige Book to Weigh on Risk
Currencies are trading heavy this morning with the U.S. dollar retreating further against the Japanese Yen after the surprise decline in durable goods orders. With the Federal Reserve releasing the Beige Book report today, a cloud will be hovering over the financial markets, preventing any meaningful rallies. Given Bernanke's warning of an "unusually uncertain" economic outlook, we expect the individual Fed districts to report softer economic activity.
Durable goods orders dropped 1.0 percent in the month of June against a forecast for a rise of 1.0 percent. Although transportation orders contributed to the drop in, demand still fell 0.6 percent which indicates that in general, orders for products made to last for a more than 5 years has weakened. In particular, orders for nondefense aircrafts fell 25.6 percent while orders for computers and electronics dropped 4.1 percent. Durable goods orders can be very volatile because of its sensitivity to demand for big ticket items. This morning, Boeing announced that second quarter profit fell 21 percent due to lower aircraft deliveries. Their backlog is also down 0.4 percent which is in line with today's weaker report on durable goods orders. However Boeing is expected to make up deliveries throughout the year and double its full year profit which suggests that durable goods orders could pick in the coming months.
GU could go higher but it's nearing a top imo
NJ short is looking good I took a short on GU at 56 so lets roll
just went short on it
about to go short on that bad boy
NJ watching for a top here
GU watching closely for an entry here
man you hit the nail on the head with that one