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Christmas will be early this year :)
How is your bet going to change if the revenue is significantly less than 15M ?
I'm "up" 30% on the current trade (initiated slightly above $6). Last trade I got caught, and had to averaged up to $5.5, exited at $2.6. The one before that I initiated at $4.16 and sold at $1.5 - cried myself to sleep because it went down to 0.6.
Overall up about 200% at this moment (back to break even at $12), but I will exit this trade at $2.5 and wait for the next pump.
Why am I not trading this one long? I could just play the opposite side and have a lower risk, higher reward? With a high degree of certainty, this stock will go to zero. It is an exit vehicle for company owners and investors that want to move on to something else - my opinion.
Trading the swings is easy money long or short, since the stock price is controlled in a band by the owners as they inch their way out. But eventually the chickens will come home to roost. And in that moment I do not want to be long with all the accumulated profits.
(Do your own research, not financial advice)
Because I'm right more often than I'm wrong?
Think of me more like a fan of Jersey Shore. I can't really watch. But I can't look away either. So I've decided to grab popcorn.
But to passively watch as money is transferred from your account to these scammers would only be half the fun. It is more enjoyable letting you know about the scam, and then you still falling for it.
To be fair, I am getting paid quite well for this. So it's not just entertainment.
Wrong. It's incredibly funny!
I'll take my chances and I love my odds.
You think there will be money left in the bank when the dust settles. LOL
No they didn't. This was plain as day visible from miles out. No lawyer is going to back you after reading all my posts. You've been warned :)
You already know what happens next. You've been told, over and over again. This stock is an exit vessel for the owners and investors of sinking ships. RCAT is skimming off the top.
Left the boat at $2.60, now riding it down again from $6. I figure they have a few more press releases up their sleeves before Dronebox launches and fails.
Since I dropped out a while back, today's move was a welcome start into a new position. Teal has been operating in the red for about 6 years now. The smart money wanted out and RCAT was the right move for them. As I have stated plenty of times: the stock only moves on acquisitions or other PRs, not on actual business results. Since acquisitions are expensive and PRs get boring, the stock price will always have more gravity than it can handle. Today's move was no surprise. I have posted here before that there will be one final pump, and that will be a good opportunity for you bagholders to get out with a bit of profit while you still can - but you won't. See you at $2.50
Keep buying! The more you believe in it, the more money it will make you!
... not.
Does the S-3 filing really mean that they are diluting shares by up to $100M, and assuming the right to issue 10M preferred shares to whomever they please?
Did I read that right?!
I didn't get out at $2.50. My plan was to get out at $2.50 if the ER is decent. ER hasn't been released yet. Therefore ...
But don't worry. Just look at TWER: There will (probably) be one final pump before the owners run for the hills ... uhm ... tax havens. So you'll have your chance to exit even. I know you won't take it. But that's not my concern.
Just think: Who has this many shares to sell. You'll get the picture.
the DOD blockage is already lifted. the article is from january.
You should look up Jeff Thompson, the RCAT CEO. He ran Towerstream from a $11k stock to the $0.5 it is right now. Doing - you guessed it - infrastructure during the dot com craze.
How can you be so right, yet so wrong? :)
Ticker OTCMKTS: TWER
The earnings report isn't out yet. The recent surge is due to the inclusion in the Russell 3k. Which is great news for the management team, as they will have blind buyers for their stock. When the ER comes out, shareholders will realize the drop in market share and expect future drop in revenue.
Keep in mind I still have a comfortable cushion. At the end of the day, I'm not the one holding stock in a technology company that has recently lost the last of its moat, most of its market share, and all of its growth potential.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/40893/pentagon-clears-some-chinese-made-drones-for-u-s-government-use
GM has 120 facilities. Even if they buy 10 drones for every facility (which is 8 too many, per facility), that still only relates to 500'000 USD in revenue. That number barely covers the CFO salary. 100'000 - 150'000 USD is more realistic, unfortunately.
That means you probably have more invested into the company than GM has. At least GM got a drone for their money.
It's called the "exit trade"
I have no intentions of talking you into selling. It's way more entertaining to know you're riding this one out. In fact, if you haven't noticed by now, I'm egging you on to hold.
Consider this: Is there more entertainment in looking at a wrecked car as you drive by, or finding a drunk person getting into the car, telling him he's going to crash (while getting ridiculed for it), conversing with him while he's driving about the stupidity of the act he's committing (while still getting ridiculed for it), seeing the tree he's about to hit, telling him he's about to hit it (and yes, still getting ridiculed for it), and then finding him later in the hospital to inform him how much money was made betting on him hitting that tree?
My bet is on the latter. Literally. I'll be standing by with popcorn in hand as this unfolds. The tree isn't far. Less than a week for the earnings, where we'll see how long they drag this out.
One could say you are... kicking rocks?
Sorry, too good to resist.
That volume was insiders abandoning ship, by the way. The earnings report will be stellar, for sure!
... or a company with a QQQ ceremony and nothing to talk about doesn't have such a promising future! Who'd have thunk it?
The day they release DroneBox their scam is over. They will drag this out for as long as they can.
Prediction time. Pure entertainment value only.
Next quarterly earnings:
Rotor Riot: 0.75M
Fatshark: 2.2M
RCat, LuGus, Skypersonic: < 0.1M
Profit: 0.1M
These are my predictions for a $1.50 exit on my short position. If we end up any lower than this, I will ride this train to $0.5. If we end up much higher, I will exit my short position at $2.50
There is zero DD that suggests that this has room to go anywhere. Every piece of information is straight from the sales pamphlet of the company itself. It's obviously sugar-coated to keep you riding this down to zero.
The stock is going below $4 after the manipulation of OTC markets is no longer allowed. That alone should speak volumes.
I never thought kicking rocks was this much fun. It's also much more rewarding when enjoying the gains with a side of the "DD" that is presented here. Please know that my smile is me laughing at you, not with you.
It doesn't imply that at all. Just because a stock is dropping doesn't mean someone is pushing it down. It could be owners offloading their shares while the valuation is stupid high, and nobody coming in to buy.
This in an industry where others are posting record numbers month after month, and RCAT has to purchase companies on your dime to keep its numbers going up.
> - has a contract with General Motors
> -has a contract w/ Aramco (biggest oil co in world)
says who? they have sold equipment to them, yes. that's not a contract.
> -has a contract with dji (biggest drone mfg)
for creating youtube videos in exchange for a bit of free gear
> -now has 5 divisions in the drone industry
All of which have declining market shares yoy. Ouch.
> -2 million in sales last qtr, largest ever
Due to purchasing companies, not from organic growth.
> - projected 16-25 million in sales next yr (My guess)
projected 7.5m in sales next year (my guess). Probably lower.
> - a stock in an exciting & up & coming industry
A company with zero sales buying existing companies with no synergies across them, and their owners sold the company because they see the writing on the wall
> Longs WILL have there DAY
... he says, failing to realize that his day was 4 months ago.
That's the spirit! Hold that bag. Grip it tight! I may kick it, instead of the rocks.
And so it begins.
The dip is easily explained. They have to keep acquiring companies to show rising revenue to justify the current P/E. When they actually launch DroneBox, the earnings will disappoint and then all the projections will make it clear that this was just a way for the founders of these companies to cash out. Their inability to compete in the market 1-2 years from now is showing.
Why would a company the size of Fatshark not buy RedCat, if the future is so bright? Why would LuGus Studio, who are in the video games business (>$100bn market) sell to a niche drone services company (< $1bn market). It really doesn't take a genius to figure this one out ...
You should have sold a long time ago. It's a scam. Why do you think the shorts are piling on. This is free money!
But hey. Buy more. A fool and his money...
Any sane person is either on the sidelines or net short. Why isnt anyone telling him to kick rocks or pound sand? He was all but laughing at the prospect of paying a 41x multiple. Hope the uplisting happens soon, there is a massive potential in shorting this one now.
The company is hired to write these articles. The piece is incredibly superficial and fits right into the "echo chamber" narrative that I've been saying. They even have some leftovers from a previous company in there. Shady copy-paste work.
I used to think that people in here are gullible. The stupidity theory becomes increasingly plausible.
I wonder what that does to the stock if debt holders can get it 80% discounted. It can only be positive!
These guys are robbing you blind, with you cheering them on.
Whenever the volume drops, so does the price. That's probably because the owners are dumping shares at a constant rate as long as price is above $0.01
OTOH, we are testing the $4.00 level which since January has been a very solid bottom. First breach yesterday. From a TA perspective, there is nothing stopping the stock from going to $2 if it stays below $4.00 for a sustained period of time (which it didn't).
So if my pump and dump theory is correct, the price will remain above $4.00, especially with the uplisting around the corner. Whoever is shorting at this price is very brave; but will eventually make profit (or "kick rocks", as you call it). My bet is as we get lower and lower to $4.00 all those people buying in after January have not seen the growth they are expecting and are divesting.
Better buy those dips, you drone industry visionaries! Caviar is pricey even in Puerto Rico!
Anyone who sees the writing on the wall? 12M in the hole in just a year.
Fatshark was acquired for 5M shares at $1.25. So the 10 year owner of a business undervalued his business by 400%?
Stock-based compensation more than half of revenue, 4x of R&D spend. "Administrative expenses" aka payouts to the owners are 10x that of marketing expenses. The drivers behind the business (engineers and marketing) must really be loving that their bosses are paying themselves out future earnings in a supposedly growing company?
Total operating expenses up 350%, in contrast R&D expenses up only 40%. 18M in the hole in just 12 months.
Y'all would have probably bought the titanic after it hit the iceberg. At twice the market rate. LOL
Funny, I keep thinking the same thing. Continuously posting material straight from RCAT and analysis based on RCAT's material is building an echo chamber of desperation. The short sellers aren't the one who had to average down - an act of desperation in and of itself. Taking information from people with a financial interest in sugar-coating it is like believing the stripper is really into you.
Either way. This forum is getting boring. I've made my position clear enough and endured sufficient insults to ensure that my return with the obligatory "Goodbye, and thanks for all the fish" post will have the desired effect. Until then, keep buying those shares, the future for this is really, really bright *nod and wink*.
There is zero demand for DroneBox in FPV. Hasn't any of you interviewed any FPV pilots?!
Either way. DroneBox will be the start of my thesis unfolding.
Fatsharks revenues were much higher in 2017 and 2018. So was their market share. Rotor Riot same. Covid has given the industry a boost, and it is becoming obvious those players can't compete. The increase in revenue was from preorders for the new product, so their underlying revenues were steady. The results are in on that, too, and it looks like DJI has them beat on pretty much every aspect. So, revenues will further decline on their primary business, and the new product line almost certainly will not make up for these losses. I expect Fatshark revenue figures to disappear from investor materials just like Rotor Riot figures have disappeared.
I am just an investor. I have no gripe against the company other than it's obviously a pump & dump and it will go to zero. The higher it goes the more it will fall, so we are rooting for the same thing - at least temporarily.
What loss? My average cost is over $6. What covering? I will add more anytime it improves my average. Disclosing my position is just common courtesy. I am not here to cheat or argue with you, I am trying to save you money. And I am interested in hearing your thoughts on my analysis. You say I dont know what I am shorting: that's precisely why I am asking these questions. Trying to learn, and compare notes. I have not received an answer to a single question thus far. Maybe I do know what I am shorting...