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hot damn
i would never refer to you and cheery in the same message middy. lol.
-ach
there's that other shoe I was waiting for!
-ach
isn't that weird how it's so much more cheery around here now? what a difference a week makes.
-ach
i'll ask in a couple of days. I just sent him a bunch of questions. I don't want to pester him too much. I'll let him regroup first.
-ach
good to know amj, hopefully we learn that we have our partner lined up. Perhaps the entire cat will be let out of the bag in March with the Phase II decision and formal release of the sinopec drilling studies to the JDA. So the EEZ arrangements will need to be taken care of before that occurs??
-ach
fyi, LP says he does not think the JDA is exerting any pressure on Sinopec to submit the final report right now. The JDA is waiting for Sinopec to present the final report in March.
So only 5 more fortnights.
-ach
So I guess that makes richkan the most valuable poster to have ever appeared on this board.
I love the holiday season, it NEVER fails, year after year, to bring out the best characteristics of our wonderful ERHC family.
-ach
But if you look at that graphic, nigeria, gabon, etc. are all higher than what the JDZ rate is.
-ach
but duane morris was just supposed to be used to get the filings in order, right?
-ach
If you look at the message I responded to from s2r, I asked that question verbatim.
-ach
Both could be true. While it may be true that Sinopec did want to go to the next phase, it may also be true that they wanted to do so without disclosing the final studies on the first round of drilling, because they needed extra time for analysis or whatever else is going on.
-ach
ask and you shall receive:
Dear XXXXXXX
Sinoped as you may be aware have request some months more(till March 2011) to disclose the final report,but we believe the information is correct in light of last inputs we have received from JDA,althought it is not official.
bestr rgds
Luis Prazeres
Agência Nacional do Petróleo(National Petroleum Agency)
Avenida Nações Unidas,225 - SaoTome,SaoTomé e Principe
Tel:239 2243351
fax:239 226 937
ok, let's see if he responds.
-ach
I don't disagree. I was just reposting a question I asked back in April, to which i received no response. I still find it odd that Prazeres would tell middy they found oil at the houston roadshow.
-ach
yes, i never got a response to the question. Here is what I asked:
Mr. Prazeres,
Recently at the EEZ roadshow presentation in Houston, you indicated that there were oil shows in Blocks 3 & 4 of the JDZ. According to ERHC, there has been only gas found in each of the JDZ blocks. I am trying to determine which is correct, as it seems this results in confusion for the EEZ bid round. Was there oil found in JDZ blocks 2, 3 or 4?
my thoughts sent to LP:
Mr. Prazeres,
Thank you for your response. In light of the group of bidders that did submit, is STP considering direct negotiations with larger firms? I would assume that the bidders certainly do not have the technical expertise or financial backing to engage in costly exploration in ultra deep waters. As you told me previously, the bidding was held up for two months at the request of Asian and European firms, yet they did not bid? I would guess that the reasoning behind this would be based on the direct negotiation legislation that STP previously passed? Any thoughts you can give would be appreciated.
Regards
LP's response:
I think Sir,that you must be right.
Luis Prazeres
Agência Nacional do Petróleo(National Petroleum Agency)
Avenida Nações Unidas,225 - SaoTome,SaoTomé e Principe
Tel:239 2243351
fax:239 226 937
Prazeres told me that the list is all inclusive. I believe that statement to be true, but I also choose to believe that there is more to the story then they are prepared to reveal at this time.
-ach
Maybe they don't need to get together. Maybe behind the scenes, the majors have been told what the deal is. In my field, you can usually figure out who is going to get the contract by who they know and what meetings they've had. The bid is a formality. I can't imagine an oil major going into a bid round blind with no direction from government officials. They should know beforehand if it will be a legit bid process, or if there is a favored company.
-ach
So let me get this straight.
STP adopts direct negotiation legislation for oil licensing.
Total buys into Block 1 of JDZ.
France is financing a 600 million dollar deepwater port on Sao Tome.
Total visits the London Data room to review the EEZ information.
STP officials travel to Brazil. Encourage Petrobras' active participation in EEZ.
Per LP, European and Asian companies ask for an extension in the EEZ bidding process.
Petrobras Indicates interest in JDZ and EEZ.
Petrobras, Total and China are partners in Akpo.
No European or Asian companies bid on EEZ.
So the general thought is there is nothing going on behind the scenes and the EEZ has no interest? Sorry, I don't buy it.
-ach
S2R,
I went through all of this with Dan at the beginning of the month. It is a fruitless effort. His standard response is when the company has new guidance, it will provide that guidance to all of its shareholders.
He told me at the beginning of October, unprompted for that matter, that all of the reports needed to be filed by the end of the October. After that date passed, he would not tell me if the reports had been filed or not. It seems like that would be pretty easy info to obtain. It's a yes or no question.
-ach
please don't forget about Petorbras, Akpo's quiet partner.
-ach
you are right kownski. I went back and looked and that number is for water depth. The TD depth is left blank. what do you make of the comment in the drilling notes line?
-ach
Does noone have thoughts on this info? Did the Quest people make it up? The spread sheet says Obo-2 was drilled in April 2008 to a depth of 5580 ft? If someone could provide guidance on the drilling notes where it says "spud appr test in 3 mo's if rig available, noncommercial".
-ach
could you provide a link to this nh? This is implying that erhc will pick up the available percentages in block 3 and sinopec will pick up conoil and dana's percentages in block 4. at least tthat's what it says to me.
-ach
Here is who is behind ConOil - as far as wikipedia knows.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globacom
I would bet ConOil has more money than EEL, and they definately have more political pull. You are dealing with one of SEO's equals. I think you will have a hard time getting them out.
And don't forget that I am waiting on confirmation for Ophir in Block 3. I think they will be out. Nice people, the australians.
-ach
How is Block 2 cleaner than 4?
-ach
Thanks 2IRAs, it works now. I fixed it in the original message.
-ach
ok, so the image is in "my pictures" on ihub now, but the link doesn't seem to work when I post it. any thoughts......anyone?
-ach
Krom,
Just the opposite. Block 2 has more smaller interests compared to 3 & 4.
Block 2 has 7 companies in it, compared to 5 in Block 3 and 4 in Block 4.
If you give me your email address i'll send you a spreadsheet that shows the breakdown.
-ach
Larry,
For us non-oil folks, Is there anything else besides production casing that you would use this size for? If this was just an exploratory well and not a production well, would this type of casing be necessary?
Thanks,
-ach
Krom,
BB gave a good account of this just a few posts ago. As he stated, they would be redistributed to the remaining block partners if they want the %. We would have to worry about not being carried for the new %.
-ach
Krom,
As I said previously, the % that I gave are for the entire JDZ (1-4) so, yes, there really is 14% of the JDZ up for grabs. The actual % of the Block that each of the exiting firms holds is different then the numbers I gave. ONGC has 13.5% of Block 2, but by leaving is making available 3.4% of the entire JDZ.
Does this make sense?
-ach
Just so there is no confusion in the info I provided. The % that I gave are based on a combined total of all of Blocks 1-4. So while Afren has 4.4% of Block 1, they only have interest in 1.1% of JDZ Blocks 1-4 as a whole.
Sorry if that was confusing.
-ach
Last thoughts on who is remaining
In Block 1 you have Afren with Rilwanu Lukman, minister of Petroleum in Nigeria until March of 2010 and former Secretary General of OPEC. You also have Dangote who is the richest guy in Africa and has given a boatload of money to the PDP.
In Block 4 you have ConOil which is privately owned by Mike Adenuga Group who also owns one of the largest telecommunication companies in Africa (Globacom)
Finally in Block 2, 3 and 4 you have Sir Emeka Offor. Obviously he needs no introduction.
My point being, are these guys really going to be "pushed" out if there is money to be made in the JDZ.
Having said that, we have no official statements saying the companies that are planning on leaving will do so, and what happens to their %. Those companies that defaulted or withdrew that were nigerian I would guess were shells. What do the poewrs behind them get for leaving? The remaining Nigereian companies are the true players that actually are legitimate companies (I loosely group ERHC into that class) LOL.
-ach
As a follow up to this last message.
Regarding who is left:
In Block 1 - Afren and Sasol are legit and Dangote I think is the richest guy in Africa, so I don't consider anyone here really weak.
In Block 2 - EEL is the only one left besides ERHC and SNP
In Block 3 - I think Ophir will be out. That will leave ERHC and SNP as the only ones left standing
In Block 4 - ERHC, SNP and ConOil are the only ones left. I think ConOil might be a tough one to remove since I assume they are part of the good old boy network in Lagos.
-ach
Krom,
There is really not many left. Based on my research and some speculation (which I don't think is a stretch) here is what I have found:
16 companies in the JDZ 1-4
Sinopec, ERHC and Total combined control 73% of blocks 1-4
The rest of the players
Conoil has 6.25% (all in Block 4)
Equator has 2.25% (all in Block 2)
Sasol has 1.3% (all in Block 1)
Dangote has 1.15% (all in Block 1)
Afren has 1.1% (all in Block 1)
Ophir has 1.0% (all in Block 3) (They may be out, not sure yet)
Here is who has checked out
ONGC 3.4% (all in Block 2)
Panoro 2.5% (all in Block 3)
Equinox (Amber) 2.5%(speculate) (all in Block 3)
Dana 2.5% (all in Block 4)
MoMo (Amber) 1.25% (all in Block 2)
Foby 1.25% (all in Block 2)
A&Hatman 0.6% (all in Block 2) (speculate) but they were being carried by ONGC and EEL (Phase I only) - so I would assume they are out.
So it looks like 14% of the JDZ is up for grabs right now.
If I screwed anything up here, please let me know and I'll fix it.
-ach