We don't need to do all this analysis, not when we can "just" use WizeTrade<<<<

Isn't WizeTrade one of Miss Cleo's shell companies? -g-

all you can do as a trader/investor is try to identify trends and go with them

a trader is not an investor.<<<<

in the strictest sense, maybe not, but investors can't just be deers in headlights either, for lt market investors the 200dma has been a great benchmark. People that invest in a company are hoping and expecting for a return on their investment, have to have an exit strategy,
if things don't work out,
just like a sNp futures trader, riding the 60 min chart.

but the general pool that is this audience, which watches the market weekly, daily and some, every intraday tick (looking for greenie on the bid-g-)

has no other alternative, if they fight the tape very long, they will give up the gains when the market went their way, or worse.

If anyone knows of a good web hosting service (preferably free so I do not have to register), a service that allows one to upload charts and then link directly to the charts,<<<<

Lg, if you just looking to upload charts (not a website) that you can link, there are now a plethora of free sites that allow you to upload and store photos - or chart.jpg's, yahoo, epson and hp have these sites and there are many others, yahoo doesn't work well if you want to embed charts, but hp has worked for me: hpphoto.com.

Nice to hear from you.

With personal denigrations, if you please. Interpretations, opinions, observations and experiences of this nature will not be tolerated. Only fools and idiots entertain <<<<

oooh fogetta bout it, OS X is the future - osx is good, very good, it makes XP look like my ole aunt elma in her coffin -g-, i have been thru every apple operating sys since the Mac SE cost me about 3 grand =lol-, no i didn't go there on the 128k mac -lol-, i am not usually that early of an adopter -g-

eventually they will fix all those bugs in illustrator and suitcase, and quark,

I've migrated to InDesign, it's a hell of a program, it's both quark-like and pagemaker-like,

Indesign imports native photoshop and illustrator files, huge boon to graphic types like me, and it exports bullet proof PDF files that you could send to any high end press room.

. i.e. you are saying its all up to market forces alone, and there's no 'objective' way of valuing them<<<

exactly

Looking back, there was the four-year cycle that came to an end last October<<<

yes, there was, and nobody in the market timing field has seemed to recognize that in the last year,

if we are in a bear market you would expect a left translating cycle, which could mean the market would top before october 2004,

, that's a big if,

i'm not so sure that the bull market from 1974 is compleat,

and this is a wave 4 pullback,

it's hard to imagine,

but my scenario of the roman empire equals the us empire is that dow stocks are almost irrationally priced as internet stocks in 99,

it could happen,

According to the firm, 71 percent of professional graphic designers use Mac OS 9 as their principal Mac operating system, while 17 percent have OS X.<<<

In my little area of the graphics industry, i would say that it's more 90%-10% (maybe 95-5), I finally switched to X last spring, and took everything into INDesign 2.0, because it was X compatible and I liked a lot of the features, and I liked the X operating system and it's integration with the internet.

Most people in the graphics industry don't think there is anything wrong with quark 4, or OS9,

and there really isn't, it's a great production environment,

it's a lot faster than X, illustrator 10 runs slow in X, suitcase runs slow in X,

the one thing that X has over 9, is that system bombs are a thing of the past, you just escape out of the program,

thats a big time saver.

but if you have a fluid running 9, why change,

software companies had an easy sell to upgrade going into about five years ago, but now it's a much harder sell.

Apple is selling the digital lifestyle, but the people in the graphic industry who are largely based on Mac, don't care about that nonsense,

they care about getting the job out fast and cheap.

Or, hopefully, your recent posts are in jest...<<<<

a bit of jest in there, and a bit of arrogance, yes having a little fun ...

but a few points that were quite valid,

>>.Apparently you don't realize that there is more than one way to make good money in the markets.<<

there are a lot of ways to make money in the markets, but this thread is more ST, most people here are concerned about the intraday, daily or weekly,

if your a trader and watching the market daily, weekly, there are a couple of things (actually only one),

you will eventually go broke if you are on the wrong side of a multi-month move, if you are bearish or bullish

I'm looking for a 50% retracement of the S&P top to bottom and it should take 50% of the time that the drop from the 2000 top took. That's what the charts tell me at this point. The remaining question in my mind is when the correction starts.<<<<

well market-watcher, i'm sorry if i lumped you in with the rest of this thread, i don't have the time to read every post, i read a 100 posts here and there, to get a feel for the tenor of the thread, which is extremely bearish during this uptrend of the last six months,

I have been somewhat quiet about it, maybe I am a contrary indicator and now that I'm giving the bears their due, it's time for a top -g-

So what in the 'charts' tells you that we will get a 50% retrace, are you not so sure that after the next high level consolidation that the markets will make another 50% boost higher?

they thought stocks were of no value 6 months ago, they've been dead WRONG!

mmm. i think you're confusing 'value' and 'cost' here<<

NO, dood, i think your confusing 'value' with BS bear delusions OF VALUE,

THE REALITY IS:

HERE IT IS FOLKS, IT'S REALLY HERE:

Nobody buys a stock because they think it's a: quote, unquote, per se a 'value', they see a stock as a 'value' if that stock will be higher someday and they can take a profit from it, the value comes from taking a PROFIT, thats the only value of a stock,

THAT THE VALUE,

STOCKS ARE JUST PIECES OF PAPER, OR ILLUSORY PROMISSORY NOTES FROM SOME SUPPOSED MAGNANIMOUS ENTITY, to give you a return on their business, they won't send you a birthday card, nor will Bearx send you a birthday card if you bearish,

As a business person, all you care about is buying wholesale and selling retail, IT'S THE SAME THING WITH STOCKS. People that have been whining about the uptrend of the last 6 months are not business people, all they care about is satisfy their ego's of being right about the markets,

Paul A, I saw that 'blurb', but i would like to see a chart, i will post a link to a chart that is a few months old that shows a different picture

I know many on this thread think 'margin' is a 4 letter word, but after a deep bear trough 3-YEARS, where the public has been expunged from the market and people who margined themselves long during the boom, have been wiped out,

an increase of margin debt is bullish, it adds liquidity to the market, it shows that investors, who have been intolerant of risk are willing to take risks again,

AND RISK TAKING IS WHAT THE CAPITALIST SYSTEM IS ALL ABOUT,

increasing margin debt is bullish off a bear trough, as are declining p/c ratios, UNTIL THE LAST PERSON WHO WANTED TO BUY A CALL BOUGHT, UNTIL THE LAST PERSON WHO WANTED TO GO LONG A STOCK ON MARGIN BOUGHT,

only the 'wizzerd of oz' knows that information

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=1230402

I sure wouldn't invite the crowd on this thread to my garden party, after six months of new highs, nobody around here seems to be able to say a good thing about anything -g-

Don't worry about AG, he has a "clean conscience", he simply never uses it... (g).<<<<<


Zeev, all this talk about a current bubble in the stock market, in the bond market, the housing markets is that just talk.

people were talking about a bubble back in 1987, they were talking about a bubble in 96, prechter published his book, greenspan proclaimed irrational exhuberance,

it's all a bunch of talk, and speculation,

all you can do in the markets is exactly what Jerry Olsen ends all his posts with "ignore the noise"

all you can do as a trader/investor is try to identify trends and go with them, and hope like hell you can identify trend changes reasonably early and don't get to obsessed with calling a trend change to early, put an empasis on the former and de-emphasize the latter,

opinions are like a88holes, the majority of market a88holes have been wrong for the last 6 months,

the percent of actual traders that will be short and hold their shorts for a sizeable gain after a top of significance is made is miniscule, it's a low probability bet to continue to call tops,

there will be a top, but nobody, not even the wizard of oz (greenspan) knows the time or the hour -g-

OT -

from the vantage point of the wanna-be<<<<

this thing is evolving and changing daily, at this point everybody is a wanna-be, especially the media -g-

WE ARE IN A BULL MARKET

nevertheless, we're in a market. there is such a thing as value, after all. if you hear that retails owners of nasdaq stocks are going out significantly on margin now<<<<<

Do you have any stats or a chart on that?

We are in a bull market since march - and many stocks from oct., if you look at just about 98% of the charts on all three boards, you will see rising trends, and a lot of them rapidly rising trends, THATS A BULL MARKET, WHEN EVERYTHING IS GOING UP, THE 200DMA IS MOVING UP! ANYBODY that IS CALLING WHAT WE'VE SEEN IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS A BEAR MARKET NEEDS TO TAKE SOME REALITY PILLS.

VALUE is in the eye of the beholder, stocks were values a month ago, 3 months ago, 6 months ago, because they sell for more money now.

are stocks a VALUE now?, you certainly can't ask any of the perma-bears floating around calling for the end of the world and the demise of the United States ala the Roman Empire, they thought stocks were of no value 6 months ago, they've been dead WRONG!

are stocks a VALUE now, that can only be answered in the fullness of time, not by a p/e ratio, a book value, because in an irrational market that is governed by greed and fear, traditional values are worthless on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis, as we've all seen the market can be irrational for years at a time.

There is something I've been watching for, a sign of capitulation by option buyers, sizeable selloffs, like the one today have garnered a p/c ratio above .85 and closer to 1, today's was low area .75, just one day though, if the option traders stop panic buying poots on pullbacks and start going long on dips, that would worry me about the long side.

mw, i posted the lt chart of the c-bow,

we had a LT trough of bearish sentiment in spring of this year, bullish sentiment is on the rise,

WE ARE IN A BULL MARKET, I WILL REPEAT FOR THE DUMB ASS BEARS ON THIS THREAD who are married to the trend since 2000, WE ARE IN A BULL MARKET,

you can't look at the evidence and conclude anything else, 6 months of new closing highs, all time highs in the summation indexes, huge p/c ratios on minor pullbacks,,

bears had your chance to get rich buying poots and shorting into the 2002 lows, people that got bearish off the 2000- top and shorted the market got pig rich, THATS HISTORY

but the market isn't going to give anybody a free ride forever, that's past history, and people that can't switch hit will go broke, just like the bulls did buying cmgi for 200 bucks in 99.

fibait,

you have to go to itunes prefs under tha apple menu,

the best general idea to give somebody a disc is the normal cd format which is Aiff, then they can play the Cd on a normal Cd player or on a computer,

but if you are burning a CD for somebody who only wants to load them on another computer select MP3 in the itunes prefs, you can burn 1-200 songs in mp3 format on a CD, but usually only about 20 in the normal CD for (aiff)

and remember to go off and pay for some music somewhere, trading mp3's and cd's are infringing on the author's legal copyright.

It's hard to take the truth,

for professional traders, when the market is moving against you, you cut your losses quickly and re-focus your efforts,

amateur traders become enamored with their market position and ride it, until it rides them to zero.

it's the difference between gambling and taking a business risk.

if you are a reading this board and you feel you are a gambler,

it might be good for you to quit now, and go back to your daily life and daily job,

before you lose anymore of your families money,

especially if you think that Zeev or some other guru wannabee is going to make back your losses of the last 3 years.

TRust me.<<<

-lol- give me two decades of audited market returns,

other than that you're just another bullshiter crying out for help.

Best bet, would be to raise as much cash as possible now.<<<

no, i'm holding my longs for now, i don't see the kind of IE that would even turn me ST bearish, if you look back at my calls on the MDD thread i did turn ST bearish back in mid july, and even at that time I said i was only mildly bearish for a pullback, i was even irrationaly exhuberant on the downside, i thought we would get a pullback to compx 1600 and the farker only pulled back to 1650, i had to chase some long plays on the upside s**t

i am not seeing anything right now that approaches those levels of IE, of course I could be as wrong as anyone,

but the bears who have been calling for a crash for the last 6 months (haven't you been doing that?)

are not the sharpest tools in the shed.

I am not bitter. I am a person who learned my lesson from the bursting of the first bubble.<<<

but did you learn your lesson from the bursting of the bear bubble in 2002-3, or will you?

FS, your call is pure speculation, as is mine,

however, if the moving averages turn down, the p/c ratio turns up, I will be as bearish as you are,

i follow the trends, i'm too stupid to know where the market is going manana, next week or 2 years from now

I really don't care if the Dow goes to 20,000 or it goes to 2000,

i'm just a whore, and all I care about is being on the right side of the move.

(well i would be remiss if i didn't shun the idea of dow 2000 - uuuck -g-)

http://www.joinarnold.com/en/

These days everybody has a job forecasting how much more the markets will move daily and trading it with money borrowed on their mortgage, lol. I read somewhere that margin debt is now over 5 times it was a few weeks back. This is working exactly like greenspan wants, wall st is the elixir drucg, cure-all for the all economic ills. Pathetic old man, IMO. Irrational exuberance at DOW 5k and now orchestrating the most blatant irrational exhuberance that could wipe out millions of people. I wonder how he can live with his concsience, but then again people like him got none, but stupid arrogance, imo<<<<

dood, when you finally go long let me know, so I can sell all my longs and go short - lmao

you need to go take a nature walk and smell some roses, your way too bitter, it comes with the territory, shorts are not happy campers lately -lol-

What are your thoughts on the $CPC on a weekly or monthly basis...hardly bullish at the moment IMO<<<<

Bert, my favorite option guy Larry McMillan looks not at the level of the p/c ratio, but the trend, and changes of trend.

bullish sentiment is the cause for people to buy, bearish sentiment is the cause for people to sell, at turning points when sentiment reaches extremes you have a contrarian event, on a LT basis the contrarian event is a rare single point, among a thousand points, contrarian thinking is a tough bet, you have to make a single point among a thousand points.

on the long term the 200dma of c-bo p/c ratio bottomed in spring 03 and bullish sentiment is on the rise, have we reached irrational exhuberance levels, or is bullish sentiment and the bullish trend on the rise?

only augieboo knows fur shure -g-


>

Deuce, interesting that you watch the penny stocks for guidance if this run is over<<<<

The bulls should have paid attention to the level of penny stock participation in both spring-summer of 98 and most importantly 99 and 1Q 2000, it's a huge indicator of exhuberance, but we are coming off a huge bear trough, and exhuberance in pennies at this point can only point to it tops - some of the penny stocks that were created in july-october 02 are once in a lifetime buys, kind of like John Templeton buying up slews of penny's at the outbreak of WWII, of course you need some luck to get the right ones, but templeton took the sling-shot approach and bought a huge basket, the winners outshined the losers,

there is no evidence right now that we are still in the bear market that started in 2000 (and maybe you could start it in some respects in 97 or 98), and there is a lot of evidence that we are in a bull market, who cares if it's a cyclical bull market or a secular bull market,

it's definately NOT a bear market,



>>>IF the $rut breaks over 525 then we may be in a new bull market but if it fails there again then we just had a rally within a bear market.<<<<

I've been watching the small caps like a hawk, we are at resistance, and i do count elliot-waves, but they are subjective, it's easy to see a five wave top, when you are only at wave 3 of 3, it looks like the next move up should be 5 of 5 from the march lows, but there is no evidence from the option buyers that's the case right now.

I may seem bullish, but i am just as skeptical as any of the bears on this thread, but the price bars are reality, not your perceptions of what should be.

but I KNOW the market is not rational, and I don't bury myself with graham and dodd market views,

We still may be in a bubble, and the correction off the 2000 top may only be a bull market correction and we may reach irrational exhuberant heights greater than that of 2000,

the United States is in a unique position in world politics and economy, more so than the Roman Empire, the Spanish Empire or the British Empire,

who knows how high is high?

Low P/C ratios are cascading one after the other, BP are in nosebleed territory. So I am staying cautious<<<<

bp's are high, but the recent pullback in the BP's, was that of a bull market pullback, a high level consolidation, all the recent tops in the BP's of the last three years returned cycles back to the oversold 20's area.

the long term p/c ratios are not in nosebleed territory, even the equity only p/c ratio, they may be in terms of the recent three years, but again, this market acts like a bull market, high level consolidations, huge breadth thrusts, drying up of 52 week new lows.

looking at the cee-bow p/c ratio, we had something of some exhuberance into late june (21dma), which was into the middle of the consolidation, but this thing is wacky since bottoming on august 4th, you'll probably remember then all the charts that were posted on this thread claiming the 87 crash redux draweth nigh (lmao),

during the uptrend from 8/4, we have had numerous days of c-bo p/c ratios above one, which has kept the 21 dma from moving down to a new level of exhuberance, and not yet even the 'irrational' exhuberance level of late june - now no indicator works every time, and there are times that the cboe miss-times the market, but from this area, i don't see the kind of exhuberance that could make any kind of top yet, I think some of the perma-bears on this thread need to capitulate and start posting trades on penny stocks, because they not only missed the whole sixth month uptrend, but have been losing their ass short, and want to make up for it post-haste -g-




again you can't count on any indicator, but my canary in the coal mine indicator of exhuberance in pennies, is a high volume upthrust in CMGI, which isn't there yet.


The biggest watched market, the 500, has had the narrowest consolidation range since the consolidation between april and june in 98, we broke above 1015 in early sept. on big volume, the general consensus was that the big boys would come back from hamptons and sell the rally, the recent pullback retested the breakout and we are moving up,

there just isn't anything right now in my little devious mind that justifies any huge bearish stance.

I suspect, however, that those who have listened to your market concerns and who play both long and short, haven't fared nearly as well....<<<<

All veteran market traders and timers have good and bad cycles,

there is no black box or magic Zeev trading machine for speculators,

the only greater fools in the market are the ones that hand their decision making process over to someone else and then blame them for not being right, nobody should hand their decision making process over to somebody in a chat room,

now if you want to hand your money and decision making process over to a guy like Warren Buffet, who has a huge lt track record, that's different.

Well, dad's swollen testicle<<<<

Paleeeze Augie, i was just having my lunch

(now upchucking my lunch-g-)

It was a true shame this happened just as he was having a huge resurgence in 8 Simple Rules, which he was carrying. I can't imagine how Katie Sagal will now carry the show?<<<<<

Ya Derf, shame,

I can't imagine either, though they have a lot of great characters on that show,

I was just watching a bit on shows who have had cast members die and how they fared, most haven't done well, especially ones that had a central character die,

the only show that worked was when Coach died on Cheers and they brought in Woody, Coach was a great character, and Woody was also a treasure,

but it's hard to imagine Cheers without Ted Danson, or Peggy Bundy without Al Bundy . . .

I'm sure they have a lot of insurance built into those shows, it's good business sense,

john ritter's defect, was an anomaly.

I think i'll go take a trip up to venice beach this weekend and ride my bike into the sand in honor of John Ritter (Jack Tripper)

i'm sure john ritter would say the show must go on,

god bless his soul

I have had some sadness lately because of John Ritter's death,

I roamed Venice Beach in the 70's, where the famous scene of him riding on his bicycle into the sand, while staring at a gorgeus chick, appeared on the Three's Company, intro.

I'm only a couple of years younger than him,

but this guy was always positive, always uplifting, and put up and indelable character on the popular conscienceness, jack tripper, just a lovable guy, maybe not an academy award winning actor but a working mans thespian.

His new show was very good,

a great comedic and uplifting talent has made an exit left.

life is short, play hard

Santa,

the bkx has been coiling in what looks like a bull flag, I don't think it has broken out yet, but the potential is there.

The spx broke out of the 3 month trading range a couple of weeks ago and retested the breakout on lower volume,

Since the BKX is the largest component of the SPX this is a big deal, if the BKX makes a move up out of this coil, you don't want to be short,

there has been some very bearish worries keeping the bkx in tow about fannie and freddie, if those worries are bear delusions, the shorts are gonna continue to get a spankin.

However, he is also responsible for having made significant mistakes post-1999<<<<

almost all tech company CEO's were heroes pre-99 and post 99 have been made goats, it has more to do with the market for tech products and the economy than anything else, boom and bust.

While Apple was probably not in danger of going out of business in 97 - many predicted it at the time, but it's marketing strategy was in disarray, a ship without a rudder, when Jobs got re-involved with the company, he brought this ailing patient back to life, re-focused apple, brought back excitement to apple from the existing customer base and from wall st. and introduced the iMac that brought in new customers,

it's hard to imagine where apple would be today if Jobs hadn't gotten re-involved with the company.

most CEO's, Sports figures, Entertainment figures seem to garner salaries that seem out of proportion,

but that is where capitalism is at, if you can sell a product to a mass market and make a nickel on every dood on the planet those nickels add up.

I don't think you can put a price on what Steve Jobs return to apple in 97 means.

S*IT this is the only company left standing that is competing with microsoft's DOS that is now XP, thats a hell of an accomplishment.

or at least admit to it!!!<<<

Hi,
i'm deuce, and i'm a survivor-holic, hiccup, well not as bad as some, but i've entered a 12 set program -g-, at least I don't end my movie reviews with "the tribe has spoken" anymore -g-

>>>>>This isn't about 'being right vs. making money', it's about understanding why you're right when you're making money. If you can't do that, you're money making is indistinguishable from luck.<<<<<

all the so-called sophisticated smart shorts who know more about the companies, the economy, and greenspanometrics, than the longs and have been calling for a crash for the last 6 months are not understanding why they are losing money, even (in their own mind) though they are right -g-, it's been bad luck to be so 'smart' lately -g-

I don't know why anyone who is long brags about it<<<<

duh, people that are trading the long side of this market are making money, you should be asking why anybody who is short is bragging about it???????


>>>>It's been shown that, on average, shorts are much better informed about the companies they short than longs are about the stocks they are long<<<<

where has that been shown?

and has being better informed about the companies that the shorters have been shorting and getting killed on for the last six months giving them something to brag about -g-

'Gee, i know this company i shorted a 2 bucks should go bankrupt, the reason its tripled to 6 bucks is because of greenspan and those bubbleheads on tv, but it's ok because i'm a smart short, i know more about the company than that idiot bubblehead who bought it at $2 and tripled his money'

=gag=

(get a grip)

I'm still a believer in seasonal trends, though. And even if this is one of those years where it doesn't work, I think it will continue to be a strong performer over time.<<<<

seasonal trends since 97 have had an incredible track record, with the fall swoon, the end of year rally and into the spring-summer of the next year,

the one instance they didn't work was after the 9 month consolidation and the break of the 200dma in the fall of 2000,

we might have something similar in reverse here,

market celebrates by taking a gigantic dump.

WAS IT SOMETHING I SAID? {ggg}<<<<

no it was a combo-nation of too many consecutive up days and what ponkap and me have been saying -gg-

taking pot shots at the poor bears -gg-

http://www.traders-talk.com/site/mb/show_topic.asp?id=50949&folderid=1