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Gleno, It takes time to tell the whole story - so will see where All this goes. For me the story that needs to be told is the resolve to Greed and Corruption. At this time I do not know if the protest will have long Legs – (go from a protest status to a full blown movement) but I would continue to support, so long as it’s a Peoples issue and not a Left leaning issue.
'blasher'
>>> protestors/terrorists
really blasher...terrorist...?
Ben & Jerry’s Support Occupy Wall Street Movement
# The inequity that exists between classes in our country is simply immoral.
# We are in an unemployment crisis. Almost 14 million people are unemployed. Nearly 20% of African American men are unemployed. Over 25% of our nation’s youth are unemployed.
# Many workers who have jobs have to work 2 or 3 of them just to scrape by.
# Higher education is almost impossible to obtain without going deeply in debt.
# Corporations are permitted to spend unlimited resources to influence elections while stockpiling a trillion dollars rather than hiring people.
http://www.benjerry.com/activism/occupy-movement/
What types of demands?
They will want leaders who accept responsibility and accountability for their actions, and who have value sets that prompt them to care more about those they represent than they do about themselves.
They will want an end to taxpayer bailouts, and an end to corporate governance structures that allow the positions of CEO and president of the board to be held by the same individual. It also has not been lost on protestors that back in 1965 CEO pay was 24 times greater than the average employee’s pay—and today is 300 times greater.
These protestors will also want our media to assume better responsibility for providing accurate, complete information rather than poisoning sound bites that fuel political frenzy and divert attention from critical matters that shape our nation’s future.
And finally, they’ll likely look for stiff penalties for offshore jobs creation while unemployment festers in the United States, and an end to the abdication of political leadership that has led to Washington gridlock.
Protestors may not yet define a unifying goal, but they are not confused about the fact that living conditions for the average American are rapidly deteriorating. And, what’s more, no one appears to be listening.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/on-leadership/what-occupy-wall-street-demands-of-our-leaders/2011/10/11/gIQAjHtZcL_story.html
Virtual Trades Close SHORT QQQ
Position; holding PSQ Nov11 35 Call 50 $1.15
10/10 close PSQ Nov11 35 Call 50 $0.50 (-$3,402.01)
note to self; review lessons learn before creating next technical analysis
Virtual Trades Close SHORT QQQ
bought PSQ 150 at $33.08 >>> SELL PSQ 150 Market DAY 32.83 (for a loss)
rationale; Simplify learning account
Position; holding PSQ Nov11 35 Call 50 $1.15
rationale; price at resistance
Account Value: begin; $25690.00 - Current; $24,143.34
northam; 2010 Bear compared
would you please explain the similarities...
In 2011 chart (5) we got a lower low - in 2010 chart (4) we did not
northam43' SPX Daily confirmed Phase 2
Oh crap - i just shorted QQQ (Virtual) -
If im on the wrong side I will have to open a second short position or sell for loss
Virtual Trades SHORT QQQ
PSQ 150 at $33.08
and PSQ Nov11 35 Call 50 $1.15
rationale; OverBought Hourly Stoch
Account Value: begin; $25690.00 Current; $24,439.42
Rant
this guy is ranting about the national debt
its a good video regardless of your political likes
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10150311478847717
SPX and Total Put/Call Comparison
These are charts of 2011 SPX and Total Put/Call - for comparison
According to online experts - A High put call ratio is a sign that the market is overSold and a Low put call ratio indicates that the market is overBought and extreme conditions could see a price correction.
However; I think Put/Call ratio (regardless of high/low number) is best used when it is aligned with other extreme readings – such as an oversold/overbought Stoch. Also; put/call by itself is Not a buy/sell signal but an Alert that we are at Extremes and a change is coming.
revise Put/Call message
I need further analysis regarding put/call before using it as a decisive indicator... I was lucky with my previous calls so I concluded – but higher or lower numbers do not necessarily mean contrarian… In other words, im removing put/calls from my purchase analysis (for now)
northam43' the upside is the winner
what time frame?
I see a pull back on the hourly - duration & dept unknown, but still a pull back - based on overbought stoch... imo
Put/Call is 1.30
that put/call is bearish to me - what it means is that if you have a Sell signal and it is in alignment then the power is on your side...
Bull vs Bear
I know most of you guys here are in the bear camp but I believe the evidence points to SPX 1074 as the bottom for this round (1-3 months). I dont see anything (at the moment) that trumps the big white candle from Tuesdays rally... (see chart)
Please note that im not pumping my chest cause its green day. Im pumping my chest cause i see evidence mounting for the bull case. My only bear side analysis is that this rally has no fundamental rationale...
SPX Chart
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p49422353091
'northam43' Weekly EMA 3
thats cool - its all falling into place... and i dont want to get too excited but the evidence is mounting that was the bottom.... We'll see on confirmation
northam; Say No to big drop by Friday
... Looks to me that the evidence is mounting for that bottom – but we’ll see, when your system confirms...
- I believe our U.S. Congress has outlived its usefulness.
– I don’t say that in a mean way, Im saying it cause it needs to be said. Congress has become so dysfunctional that it no-longer functions as a representative of the people.
'northam43' 2010 Weekly Bear.
yesterdays big white candle on SPX daily plus a follow up today.... I think there is a chance we put in the weekly low so Im keeping an eye on your weekly phase updates....
bbgold'
thanks - appreciate the tip. I looked at that board and I like what i see - especially the .."...Buying Calls at LOD and Support and Puts at HOD..." So I will be checking in there now-and-then but I will be posting trades here for the most part...
northam;
hope thats cool with you that I post my virtual trades here on your board....
Torqputty - Virtual Trades
Beginning this month I will practice options trading
Virtual trading in Options Express by charles-shwab
I will Virtual trade options and index ultra shares.
The system is; northams SPX cycle – Channels - Hourly & Daily Stoch – Put/Call
The trading indexes are IWM QQQ QLD TQQQ QLD - SPXU QID etc –no single stocks
No day trades (for the most part) No more than two trades a day
A Trade; open and close - or open & open new (incase I enter too early)
Begin with $25K and no more than 25% of fund total on a single trade
Gains and losses displayed
The purpose; to TEST personal ability to trade options – to build confidence using a consistent and known system and display results for all to see. Gauging Success; It doesn’t matter at this juncture if I win, lose or draw. (win is preferred) What matters is learning, building trust in trades, proving the system actually works for me (not for anyone else) and to know what to do when I make a wrong trade.
Yesterdays eod Rally
does anyone know what the catalyst (the rationale) for yesterdays eod rally?
'northam43' - re; SPX 2010 Bear & 2011 Bear
… are you comparing the similarities....?
Comment; If those are similar paths (which is possible) - Then I would need to revisit/review my current bias (which is VERY bearish) based on SPX continuation pattern and breakdown of support at SPX 1100. - I believe price will go down to 975 S&P.
So the question is; when will your SPX system confirm that these are similar paths - and 2) what would be the fundamental catalyst that support that analysis?
SPX Charts
These charts are borrow public charts
The first is S&P 400 – it shows the downside continuation pattern has materialized. Most indexs show a similar pattern.
Second chart is SPY – showing trendlines – most notable on this chart is the MACD TLBSS - it is at the top of the chart. It usually means the macd would continue towards the bottom of chart.
Last Chart is SPX channel with hourly stoch – it shows that price is oversold on the hourly and that we should see a pause or small bounce.
Overall opinion; I think SPX has definitely broke to the downside and the catalyst is Greek fear and recession. On a positive note for bulls, the hourly charts show chances of small bounces but ya gotta pay attention.
S&P400
SPY
SPX
put/call ratio 1.45
we broke support on SPX plus put/call is up to 1.45
We will see if things improve (for bulls) as the day progress but I see little to No upside so long as put/call numbers are above 1.2
northam43
do you have a downside target on SPX Daily Phase 1
SPX comment
... at this juncture Im looking for a break of or a bounce at SPX support.
Also; im looking for direction from news plus keeping an eye on put/call ratio
O/T Obama
You guys (conservatives) are Always blaming O and libs for the current state of affairs. I think There is some truth to all that criticism but in my opinion they are half truths. And half truths do not complete the story.
First of All, Obama did not bring us to our current state of affairs all by him self. He had lots of help from dems and republicans alike. One man could not – cannot - down a country that is Not Already ripe for chaos.
And 2) regarding the rich; Yes I agree that O is using ‘class warfare’ to further his cause but when the truth be told - the rich have always screwed the not so rich. Its the nature of that beast and O is capitalizing. Also; I support the rich being rich but how rich is rich enough. Is it right for a ceo to make huge salaries but the company is not so profitable. Is it cool for oil companies like exxon and shell to make $7.5 billion and $8.4 billion in profits - plus where did they siphon the profits… wheres the balance? - And to make matters worse, I think O is in it for the rich.
All im saying here; there’s lots of blame to go around, the rich can definitely afford to give - and the USA is still the best nation regardless of the negative headlines.
northam43
this is your system - so if you say we hit low then we hit low...
Ive been keeping a good eye on put/call and building confidence using small trades. And so I can say with a degree of confidence that put/call has went neutral or is not at its extremes.
For me; I initiate my bet whet put/call is at extremes, the stoch is at extremes and SPX cycles has met or exceeded target... Simply when All is in alignment
thats my input for the week - have a great weekend...!!!
Nice sell-off in that last hour
...put/call now goes into neutral - so the sell pressure should ease going forward pending new negative News
this tells me; that if the SPX cycles is at or near its downside target then the probability of price pausing and then going back up is good...
I like posting channels, patterns and ewave charts here at SPX cycles...
but they are always In-Support-Of the current updates. I use channels and hourly stochs and look for alignment with the SPX updates and if they match then baam I initiate my bet. In my opinion; we should post any and every system so long as it supports SPX cycles – stay under the umbrella of and does Not override it. Other boards are cool but the topics all over the place and egos are high. Again, the reason I like this board is that its focused and the system is consistent...
Dow Theory - Greece Trumps Reliable Stock Signal
according to the news; - "... there is reason to believe while the transport activity is an important economic bellwether, it may not matter to the markets.... " http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Dow-Theory-Dead-Greece-Trumps-cnbc-3508272807.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
basically they're saying it doesnt matter if transports are in the dumps the markets should rally - but Im Not so sure that I want to believe that story; in my opinion saving greece is Not enough because the problem is bigger than greece.
northam; I know we dont talk news here but this news supports the current market condition. And in my opinion the market is looking for direction = so price will stay in this range until we have a catalyst
re; northam43 daily projected low
heres my take; using your projected low 1128.27,
the SPX hourly stoch is oversold and price is moving towards support but not towards the lower channel
- the COMPs stoch is oversold and price is at the lower channel. usually means buy QQQ (go long)
The unknown for me is how much put/call (real time) will effect price to downside
I have no recommendation and have made no bets; but if I did - I would long QQQ for a quick ride up.
CBOE put to call is high
.... tells me theres a sell off coming
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPC&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p77355952655
Several Charts
I borrowed several charts from reliable chartists. The common theme is that were are Still inside the triangle. We're still triangulating, Undecided if price trend should continue and break to new lows or Change and become bullish.
The first chart is $COMP 40 Day Hourly. Im using it as an advance warning to what the SPX may do. It is inside its up slope channel and the hourly stoch is about to become oversold. It Typically means BUY when channel and stoch are oversold. - So If (and I say If) the COMP bounces on its lower line then it would help pause the SPX from further downside.... However if $COMP price breaks its lower channel then it could push $SPX to a new weekly low stated by northams SPX Cycles...
SPY
SOX
INDU
DJI continuation pattern chart
Here is a continuation pattern provided by elliot wave theorist. It shows the price of 1937-1938 Dow Jones Industrials. It is suppose to simulate the current downside market. In my opinion, we are at the juncture (the lower line) for this pattern to take effect, to confirm that current price is a continuation pattern.
This is Not a post regarding waves.... Im just using their chart.
Good Job northam43
I see you are very focused... and thats what I like about following spx cycles and this board.
SPX Hourly charts
here are a couple of borrowed S&P charts to support the 'Extended' hourly cycle. In both cases the price is at or near the upper line plus the Stochs are O/B..... My opinion is that price will return towards the lower line or as a minimum pause right here and wait for news to drive it. The bet is; closed my long positions...