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the bigger question will be how the fed agencies react, and congress. If the feds lapse back into doing little to nothing after this, down we go again. If there's any kind of follow through, heck SHWZ could rally another 25% from here and make it back to a buck!
The frustrating thing is they could do all that and more and in the end, might still end up at 50 cents or lower for a stretch of time going forward. They are already and have been one of the few well-managed and well-executing MSOs by comparison and yet that has meant absolutely nothing to their share price for a couple years now - except I suppose, not falling to 60 cents sooner than this. The stock is now at the lowest it's been, going all the way back to 2018. We've seen good ERs not move this stock, we've seen favorable news not move this stock, we've seen some modest pops when the fed looks likely to do something only to watch it always fall further than it was prior to the latest fed head-fake on safe banking or de-regulation. Unless something real happens with safe banking, this slip downward in my opinion continues, and it's unlikely that is happening this year, so we're looking at 6 months perhaps of skidding south. I'd kill even for a non-sensical exuberant rush higher on some half-baked fed promise, just to take some shares off the table and begin flipping or putting the money elsewhere. Otherwise, thumb-twiddling, until some time later next year. Hope I'm wrong, but I don't see anything changing here for over 6 to 9 months except slipping downward.
thanks - this is solid DD. I hope like you the focus is on organic growth, until (when/if) safe banking gets passed.
I understand the risk. and i believe shwz is still one of the best in the sector. that said, if we know the rest are failing, no rush to acquire and forcefully expand except potentially getting bargain basement prices for these assets, but even then, in a bloated, somewhat plateaued market, why rush to do that? Keep walking, slowly incrementally growing, reduce the debt to be more attractive to shareholders, don't bloat the float, get the share price up, and when either the fed does something (perhaps in my lifetime) or a ripe acquisition makes sense, less shares need sold to make the buy and we're rocketing from a higher share price. At this point, i don't see any reason not to manage debt as the key priority over the short term, organic less aggressive expansion at most in the meantime.
I was all for expansion initially, and assumed in a fairly short amount of time that Safe Banking would pass, other scheduling changes at the Fed. I bet they did too. That's proving to take years instead, if ever. I now think they need to manage debt, rather than aggressively expand. The need to push, rush expansion, in my opinion, is no longer as critical as it was in order to gain and maintain marke. Now that pot is in the dumpster, other companies are struggling and will disappear, and pot will be in this state for some time due to how the states are rolling out their models - the over-licensing, the product saturation - why aggressively expand? Get the house in order from a debt perspective, use current operations to incrementally and less aggressively expand, and do that organically, with buildout. Commercial real estate is at a low, should be plenty of spaces to get on the cheap in good locations - that seems a better path to me. Selling shares for large expansion no longer makes sense at these levels. As a shareholder, it would only make my unhappier. I'd prefer hearing about debt management / debt reduction as a focus now. I'd be interested in other's thoughts.
tried googling Lakewood - besides it being based on SC, couldn't find much of anything on it. Doc is right, looks decidedly piggy bankish.
Agreed on the margins being the best positive take away.
I don't see a justification in the increase in stock based compensation in the quarter when the performance is down. As a shareholder, I hate seeing performance rewarded when undeserved. Increase it when there's demonstrable value added
to the shareholder.
Well, one MSO is pushing into the beer brands more rather than sit and wait, which the more inaction I see at the Fed level seems like a good argument to diversify into non-mj products until the US gets around to wanting a marijuana market. ER is disappointing, and like IPS noted, not the same level of reporting as in the past. They seem off their game a bit more since Dye left, and the pace of expansion really slower than I'd expected. I'm afraid we'll hit the 70s today and linger there for a while.
they got around to announcing the Hobbs expansion. https://ir.schwazze.com/news-releases/news-release-details/multi-state-cannabis-operator-schwazze-continues-expansion-new-0
nice to see it hold on to the end, but again, 34k shares traded. Not exactly on fire.
At least TLRY injected some good news into the sector today, with their earnings beat. If a few others like them that are more actively watched can do a beat, that would bring eyes and dollars back to the sector. Whether any of that would spill over to SHWZ seems unlikely in the current radio silence from management.
Well, good news, we're seeing bigger volume again, the bad news, too bad it's pushing things lower.
The whole industry including investors are at the stage of do we stay or cut the losses and get out. Harder and harder to justify tying up money in the pot market. So we'll see more dumping in the coming months. Management isn't making a case to shareholders, the feds aren't making a case for the industry, so not much out there to get excited about.
Another senior level job posting - Senior Vice President of Retail
https://www.ziprecruiter.com/c/Schwazze/Job/Senior-Vice-President,-Retail-(CO)/-in-Denver,CO?jid=cfa79b1604819a20;
Well, Schumer popped up like some sonic sound byte hedgehog and is stating safe banking will pass again. Meaningless words until something actually passes. But it got us over a buck again. If more dithering occurs as has happened before we will spend the summer sub-buck during the MJ summer doldrums.
though red white and bloom are no great shakes...
saved from imminent death. exposure to the US. it could have been a lot worse.
it's nice to see which stocks are running, shwz, curlf, while the shine has come off the bigger MSOs a bit. Perhaps a turning point is occurring in the control the large MSOs have held?
Across the board the sector is lighting up.
A little over a month since the announcement regarding acquiring Everest to close. That's nice to see.
IPS, intriguing suggestion. When is Dye done and ready for sale... If the supposition is he can step back as CEO, the playbook is rolling along, he's got SHWZ to where it needs to be is true, that could come sooner than expected. Problem is, how many companies are left to make an offer. A handful at best.
Thanks for posting this - good news, both the reduction in cash related transactions, and easing (potentially) the purchase for the customer, not to mention increasing both the relevance of an online presence and the value of having multiple locations for customers to have a short drive for the pickup. But also for a new product line of psychedelics down the road should they choose to play in that space, expanding customers in CO.
I really don't understand this post. It doesn't reflect the nature of what has been posted here in general since the announcement. I don't see my comment that they could have managed this better as an announcement as only seeing the negative. As for positives, that still needs to be seen and addressed. As to company positives in general, almost every poster here has acknowledged it hasn't yet led them to move on. So not sure what point you're trying to make.
It's fair to point out a misstep. Otherwise only rose-colored views are being discussed. And as for Monday morning QB-ing, well, we can only react to the news when we hear it. It's all after the fact.
Glad to see the stock up today and over a dollar and I hope it holds.
Yes, it's the big chink in their armor. They execute really well only to have the messenger garble or not even carry the message forward. It's like sticking the landing with Apollo 11 and having IR discussing Apollo 9.
I get that. And it's the reason I haven't yet sold a share. But my point is, Dye could have managed this far better. For example, explain the non-executive nature of his role on the board in the PR. Make a statement about what that focus will entail in more detail, better yet, coincide this announcement with a set of actions or a schedule of investor meetings he has already on the calendar to market SHWZ and drive up interest in the stock (demonstrates this is a carefully planned move to redirect his focus and to what he's focusing on in a way that shows it's planned, in control, already moving full bore ahead). This is getting released into a vacuum, it's badly done in my opinion, and opens the door to doubt in an industry currently tanking. As I said, not a good look, or an elegant move. And yes, as a shareholder I'm disappointed to see this announcement further erode the stock price counter to the very reasons this announcement is purportedly being made.
The issue is it's posters on this board that are guessing what the value of Dye stepping down as CEO will provide. There is no clarity on the why and the only statement regarding any potential future for Dye is his remaining on the board and the comment in the PR about focusing on shareholder value - but he's said that for years now. Stocks hate uncertainty, and this stock was viewed as Dye's baby. Stepping away from CEO raises more questions than IR is answering. I'm just trying to be realistic, not a doom slinger. I just don't see how this announcement will be spun positively in terms of investors and our share price unless Dye himself reveals more about his future commitment and activities regarding SHWZ. I don't doubt Nirup as CEO, the company can continue to forge ahead, and it would be great if Dye did come up with a plan to truly market SHWZ to investors that showcased its difference from the other MSOs. But I as a shareholder don't want to be a speculator on that. I want to hear it from the horse's mouth ASAP and see it start to happen.
I really didn't expect that, and it's not what I wanted to see happen at this time. Timing is awful, we don't need any more worries added to a flailing sector to drive the stock even lower. Not a good look.
where to next is the big question... 87? Lower?
We are on the cusp of going under 1.00, which is possible during these doldrums, so if I were entertaining buying more i'd be waiting, but that's only my humble view. As to the next meeting, the question is whether the war chest they have is planned for incremental acquisitions (if so, no real move in the stock as those get announced until the larger industry view changes) or whether a larger purchase to secure their top position in CO or NM gets announced (that could get some eyes on SHWZ and move the needle a bit), or a significant move into another state (that would also garner interest). Otherwise, drift along unless the fed does something, anything. Nice to see at least them squabbling over some of the language in safe banking, squabbling over specifics means to me they're closer on agreeing in general to move it all forward - now it's more of the tweaking. In these dark days of MJ in the pot so to speak, merest hope I can muster.
Yes, very pleasantly surprised and pleased. solid report. shows a steady hand on the wheel with all the issues in the sea of pot right now.
well we're sinking now on higher than average daily volume so it won't be a fun report. and if it has a good surprise, we'd just be back to where we were at the start of today.
Seeking Alpha notes this regarding earnings prediction:
The consensus EPS Estimate is -$0.04 and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $41.17M
Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 0 upward revisions and 1 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 0 upward revisions and 2 downward.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3968172-medicine-man-technologies-q1-2023-earnings-preview?utm_source=businessinsider&utm_medium=referral
With 350 shares traded, no tipping of the hand ahead of tomorrow yet. Will be interesting to see if any volume picks up at end of day or going through tomorrow - either to the plus or minus side. But my bet is largely a yawn and things just remain flat even post earnings. Just not enough attention or interest to move it greatly one way of the other.
I was just interested in the Starbuds trucks becoming more visible, and wondering if that shoe will fall down the road.
did anyone catch this comment in the comments section to the article?
ohm
1 day ago
(Edited)
Marijuana business is booming here in the city. We just had our annual Cannabis Parade and Rally.
https://cannabisparade.org/
A couple months ago I noticed a truck on Park Avenue in mid town that looked like a Starbucks coffee truck. When I looked closer, it turns out is was a Starbuds truck selling weed. Now I see them all the time.
https://starbudsflowers.com/
There are restrictions - all noted in the ARS from yesterday (easiest way to review the various debt offerings in one fell swoop).
if SHWZ has debt payments like this based on the posted ARS today:
2023 - 32 mil, 2024- 25 mil, 2025- 60 mil, and 2026 - 144 mil, and some of that is convertible into shares, the 2025 into 2026 timeframe is when I'd expect increases in shares to be on the docket for a shareholder meeting. I'm of course no guru on any of this, just thinking out loud as to when that increase would be most likely, especially if there were headwinds to revenue in 2024.
Since the board basically owns the company, if and when they do it is their choice, regardless of the common shareholder vote.
The question would be is additional capital needed in the next two years to rush that increase to support growth? I'm hoping not.