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Out of control...
This validates my position that the WHO's Influenza Coordinator, Nabarro, was/is spinning webs of deceit about the H5N1 situation in India. I have stated many times that 'poverty and ignorance' will be ruination of many. I largely meant the poverty and ignorace that exists in 3rd world countries. But it seems that these poor countries do not hold patent on the 'ignorance' piece.
"...H5N1 remains out of control in India and adjacent countries."
The WHO's motto: "Nothing to see here. Move along."
ifionlyhadabrain10x
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Poultry Banned in West Bengal Indefinitely
Recombinomics Commentary 22:07
February 5, 2008
State’s Animal Resources Development Minister Anisur Rehman said, “The sale, purchase and movement of chicken, ducks and eggs are banned indefinitely. Defending the ban, government sources said the flu has certainly spread to other districts. It is a matter of time an alert is sounded in these districts as samples from here have already been sent to Bhopal for testing.
The above comments describe an indefinite ban on poultry in West Bengal, India. The spread of H5N1 throughout the entire district has been acknowledged, although delayed testing has precluded confirmation. This spread is not surprising. H5N1 had been reported in 13 of the 19 districts, even though testing had been minimal. Moreover, culling around confirmed sites overlapped parts of districts which did not have confirmed outbreaks, so culling has been ongoing in almost all districts prior to the announcement (see satellite maps here and here). Similarly, the culling in adjacent regions also reflects likely movement of H5N1 into those regions, even though H5N1 has not been confirmed. Dead resident wild birds would move H5N1 into adjacent regions, while migratory birds would move H5N1 into wider regions, including Uttar Pradesh.
The ban acknowledges that H5N1 remains out of control in India and adjacent countries.
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/02050810/WB_Poultry_Banned.html
"...stop writing about Beckham and Britney"...
Brilliant.
..."Prof von Itzstein, who helped to develop the influenza drug Relenza, said... the H5N1 virus had evolved to the stage where it could be transmitted from birds to humans, with evidence mounting that limited human-to-human transmission could also occur. [[[do yah think?!!!...]]] My friend Dr. Mike Osterholm was in Bangkok at that bird flu confab in late January, trying valiantly to convince the global press corps to stop writing about Beckham and Britney and start writing about something that will eventually happen, has happened with historical certainty ever since the Chinese domesticated ducks some 4,000+ years ago, and will absolutely keep happening, no matter how arrogant we are about our "superiority" over bugs. And that something is an influenza pandemic in the Just-in-Time 21st Century."
Dr.Mike,anotherheroofmine10x
Nano of Truth Be Told...
For what it's worth (admittedly, not much), about half way down the page at this link are a few pics of our girl.
http://www.wireimage.com/GalleryListing.asp?nbc1=1&navtyp=CAL====190223&ym=200606
Here too:
http://www.wireimage.com/GalleryListing.asp?navtyp=gls====66720&nbc1=1&VwMd=i
whyaremostpeopleinCaliforniasobeautiful?10x
Is North America next?...
Will we see Higly Pathogenic H5N1 in North America in 2008? Will it be migratory birds or poultry smuggling from Asia that brings H5N1 into NA via Latin America? How long then until the first NA H5N1 poultry deaths are seen? Or will it be a traveler to a hot zone county that brings H5N1 to NA? Time will tell. My guess is that, yes, '08 could be the year, and the likely vector to NA will be an infected traveler returning from a hot zone country. This was exactly how SARS arrived in Canada from Asia. This scenario already occurred when a New York State Pakistani immigrant visited family members in Pakistan who were infected with H5N1 (two of his brothers died). Even though the CDC did not publically divulge his blood serum test results, it would appear that we likely dodged a HUGE bullet.
So, given that, it may soon be time to take a 'short' position with Yum and a few other NA chicken producer stocks. Imagine the SP crash for these stocks when it's announced that millions of chicken and turkeys had to be culled. Yikes. And if you think that H5N1 will never visit NA, then I have some ocean-front lots for sale in Hawaii that you might be interested in. Doc already checked them out and he said, "They're saaaa-weet, bro!"
With Tami no longer working, until a few brilliant scientists from a certain Nano company are able to mass produce a solution, we are all passengers on this scary ride.
allaboard10x
Dead Chickens Cause Panic in Calcutta
Recombinomics Commentary 20:08
January 30, 2008
While the state government on Wednesday claimed that the onslaught of bird flu is coming under control, there was panic at Maheshtala in Kolkata after the mysterious death of 200 chickens there. "At least 700 chickens have already been culled in North 24 Parganas after our tests suggested the presence of the virus in the area," Mr Rehman said, adding that the situation is a little worrying.
The dead chickens described above have caused panic in Calcutta (see satellite map here and here). These chickens are near the confirmed H5N1 in Budge Budge, and are close to the sites where dead wild birds were found. There has also been confirmed H5N1 just across the Hooghly River, and as noted above culling has already begun in adjacent North 24 Parganas. However, the suggestive test results have not been made public previously. In addition H5N1 positives were found in the Hooghly district.
Thus, there seems to be withheld test data on excessive domestic and wild bird deaths in the area, as well as confirmation of additional bird deaths, so confirmation of the chickens mentioned above would not be a surprise. The true situation in West Bengal and Calcutta remain murky, due to limited testing and the withholding of test results. At this time H5N1 has been confirmed in at least 13 districts, and culling is ongoing in at least three more districts where H5N1 has not been officially confirmed.
It is likely that H5N1 is in all 19 districts, including Calcutta.
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01300806/Calcutta_Panic.html
nostradamus10x
And then there's this joker...
Nabarro, the UN's Comedian-in-Chief. India has the situation SO under control that US Government is offering the CDC's help to attempt to gain control of the situation. "...coming under control"... That Nabarro, he funny guy! And his title, that funny too. Influenza Coordinator. What is there to coordinate? Maybe he 'coordinates' the growing death totals for each country with endemic H5N1? Or maybe he 'coordinates' the UN's media spin. That part very accurate.
whataclown10x
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
India's bird flu outbreak coming under control-UN
30 Jan 2008 13:47:47 GMT
Source: Reuters
By Adhityani Arga
JAKARTA, Jan 30 (Reuters) - An outbreak of bird flu in poultry in India's West Bengal state is "coming under control", but authorities still need to break the chain of transmission of the H5N1 virus, the United Nations influenza coordinator said in an interview on Wednesday.
"I would say that it is coming under control," David Nabarro told Reuters, "And the final test of whether it's under control would be whether or not authorities are able to really dampen down the new outbreaks of H5N1 particularly in West Bengal."
Bird flu has spread to 13 of 19 districts in India's West Bengal in the fourth outbreak of the H5N1 strain since 2006, with samples of dead chickens testing positive in two new districts, officials said on Monday.
In neighbouring Bangladesh, the disease has spread to 29 of its 64 districts since March last year despite mass-culling of poultry.
"What the authorities need to try to avoid is the continous transmission of the H5N1 virus so you almost stop noticing the outbreaks," Nabarro said, sitting in his suite in a five-star hotel in the Indonesian capital Jakarta.
The public health expert is on a four-day visit in the Southeast Asian nation, where he meets ministers and experts to review Indonesia's efforts to stamp out disease.
Nabarro said a major problem is that most poultry in West Bengal and Bangladesh are raised in backyards and farmers have been reluctant to cull their birds in the fear of losing a vital source of income and nutrition.
"In both the Bangladesh and the West Bengal situation the key dilemma that government faces is on the one hand wanting to get the virus under control and to reduce infections," Nabarro said.
"On the other hand, to try not to increase poverty among already very poor rural communities."
"But I am really very pleased with the general approach that's been taken in both settings."
In West Bengal over 2 million birds have already been culled since the H5N1 virus hit the state earlier this month, and authorities are planning to ban rearing backyard poultry in infected districts for at least three months.
Nabarro praised Indonesia's progress in containing the spread of bird flu despite the recent spike in human cases with six deaths in January alone.
"If there had not been a strong response by the authorities, it is my belief that we would have much higher rates of human disease in this country."
"The levels of human infections are still mercifully quite low... but a lot more has to be done."
Experts fear the H5N1 strain could mutate into a form easily transmitted from person to person, leading to a pandemic that could kill millions.
There are no human infections have been reported in India and Bangladesh, while Indonesia leads the world's toll from the disease with 124 human cases of which 101 have been fatal.
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/JAK238023.htm
602 with 'mystery' fever...
And I'm entirely sure that it's just a coincidence that H5N1 is killing all the chickens in this area too. By the by, Malda is outside the city of Calcutta, population ~13 million. Eeeks.
Nothing to see here... move along...
yeahright10x
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
602 people under flu watch in Malda
OUR CORRESPONDENT
Malda, Jan. 29: A door-to-door survey by district health workers in bird flu-hit areas of Malda has found 602 people with symptoms like fever, running nose and cough.
“We have detected 109 such people within a 3km radius of the affected areas in Chanchol and Harishchandrapur and 493 people within a radius of 3-10km. All of them complained of fever, running nose and cough,” said Radharaman Banik, the chief medical officer of health (CMOH) of Malda.
Outbreak of avian flu among poultry birds has so far been confirmed in Chanchol I and Harishchandrapur I blocks. Now, similar outbreaks are also suspected in Kaliachak I and Kaliachak III.
It is not yet known if H5N1 or the bird flu virus has infected some of these 602 people, but Banik said all of them were being kept under observation.
“We are opening a special ward in the Chanchol subdivisional hospital in case we need to admit any of them and we will also send their blood samples to the Bhopal laboratory,” said the CMOH.
A mystery fever is also stalking Malda town. D. Sarkar, the superintendent of the railway hospital here, said: “We have been getting patients with high fever and chest pains and we are not being able to detect the source of infection. We have sent quite a few patients to B.R. Singh Hospital in Sealdah.”
However, no one has been confirmed with pneumonia, the known symptom of bird flu.
A team from the National Institute of Communicable Diseases (NICD) in Delhi and experts from the All-India Institute of Hygiene and Public Health, Calcutta, arrived here today to study the situation.
The team includes NICD joint-director Shah Hossain and G. Sengupta, a microbiologist from the institute in Calcutta. The experts met senior district officials and, according to sources, gave a clean chit to the administration for the manner in which the situation is being handled.
The animal resources development (ARD) department, on the other hand, is getting ready to send culling teams to Kaliachak I and Kaliachak III blocks after birds started dying there in large numbers.
“The central team from the NICD has visited the areas and from the manner in which poultry birds are dying there, the experts are certain that it is a bird flu outbreak,” said Arunima Dey, subdivisional officer, headquarters.
All the nine block development officers in the Malda Sadar subdivision, including those of Kaliachak I and III, have been told to hold meeting with the panchayat pradhans and create awareness among villagers.
“We are also sending blood samples to Bhopal,” Dey said.
The subdivisional officer added that the Kaliachak blocks were adjacent to Bangladesh and the virus could have spread from the other side of the border.
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1080130/jsp/siliguri/story_8839936.jsp
Billions and Billions served...
Just imagine the billions and billions that have been invested into now mostly ineffective (at best) Tamiflu. Looks like Roche need new Black Flag to 'Kill Bugs Dead'. H5N1 bugs now 30m high dive and swim backstroke in pool of Tami for kicks. hehaho. That funny.
icrackmyselfup10x
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
H5N1 Tamiflu Blankets and Resistance in European H1N1
Recombinomics Commentary 16:58
January 29, 2008
Influenza experts admitted today that they have been startled by the discovery this season of an unexpectedly high number of human flu viruses that appear to be naturally resistant to Tamiflu, the drug that countries around the world are stockpiling for use in the next flu pandemic.
The viruses have been isolated from people infected with influenza A viruses of the H1N1 subtype in a number of European countries.
The World Health Organization is convening a virtual meeting of experts tomorrow to try to get a handle on how far afield the resistant virus has been found, how common it is and what the findings signify.
"I think this is a very concerning change in influenza virus resistance patterns," Dr. Frederick Hayden, a leading antiviral expert and a member of the WHO's Global Influenza Program, said from Geneva.
The above comments express surprise and concern regarding the sudden appearance of oseltamivir (Tamiflu) resistance in H1N1 seasonal flu, and fail to draw the connection between this dramatic change and the widespread use of Tamiflu blankets to treat H5N1. The change in the human N1 in H1N1 is identical to the avian/human N1 change in H5N1. Both N1’s have created H294Y via the identical nucleotide change, C763T. Although this change has been found in H5N1 patients in Vietnam and Indonesia treated with Tamiflu, it has also been found avian isolates, including mute swans in Astrakhan in 2005 (A/swan/Astrakhan/Russia/Nov-2/2005(H5N1) and A/swan/Astrakhan/1/2005(H5N1)) .
Question of fitness have been raised previously, but the presence of H294Y in wild birds flying around Europe as early as 2005 indicates the chnage does not carry a significant fitness penalty. Moreover, H294Y was found as early as 2002 in a chicken in Hong Kong, A/chicken/Hong Kong/3123.1/2002(H5N1).
H294Y can move from the N1 in H5N1 to the N1 in H1N1 via recombination. The opportunity for co-infections involving seasonal and pandemic influenza can be found in patients with mild H5N1 infections.
Such infections were suspect in 2005 in northern Vietnam. In contrast to outbreaks in 2004, the case fatality rates of H5N1 in northern and southern Vietnam were dramatically different in early 2005. In the north the clusters were larger and the infections were milder, suggesting H5N1 in humans was becoming more common, and transmitting more efficiently. Almost 1000 samples were collected for analysis. H5N1 was detected locally, so samples were sent to the CDC in Atlanta for confirmation. Positives were also seen in Atlanta, so samples were repeatedly tested until they turned negative. However, the lab results had little effect of the H5N1 in circulation, which was commonly treated with Tamiflu.
This treatment would select for human H1N1 or avian H5N1 with H294Y. This change began to appear in the United States in 2007. The isolates with H294Y were Solomon Island-like, which link back to Asia. Similarly, H5N1 outbreaks in the Middle East were also treated with Tamiflu. In Egypt, a scenario similarly to Vietnam developed in 2007. Early cases in the north were largely fatal, but outbreaks in southern Egypt were mild, again allowing for more efficient spread and co-infections with H1N1 seasonal flu. These co-infections would again create conditions for the movement of H294Y from H5N1 to H1N1 in areas where Tamiflu was used excessively.
Thus, the appearance of H294Y began in 2007 and now is becoming increasingly common in human H1N1 in 2008.
This increasing frequency of Tamiflu resistance in seasonal H1N1 is cause for concern, as is the potential for additional expansion in H5N1.
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01290805/H5N1_Tamiflu_H1N1.html
A brilliant Op-Ed piece...
This is a brilliant piece about how the mainstream media is largely ignoring what is unfolding in south/central Asia. We ignore these events at our own peril.
thetruthisoutthere10x
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The dogs that aren't barking in the night
This past week, for me, has been an immersion course in Indian journalism. In general I've been impressed. The country's English-language media have offered lively, informative, and usually opinionated stories on the spread of H5N1 across West Bengal.
Indian reportage has also taught me that other hot-zone countries could have produced journalism of similar quality, and haven't. I wouldn't expect Xinhuanet to publish gleeful flayings of the Chinese Communist Party's failures about H5N1, but why haven't Indonesia's media given us detailed accounts of cullings and local resistance? And what's wrong with Thailand's media? For that matter, why haven't foreign media sent reporters into hot-zone villages to interview people and see what a cull is like?
I've just spent some time on the websites of the New York Times and the Washington Post, trying to find something about West Bengal. Nothing. Nothing on the UK's Guardian Unlimited or Independent either.
Think about that. An Indian state with a population of 80 million, in a country with over a billion people, is battling a poultry disease.
At the very least that disease will help to impoverish and malnourish millions, and create serious political instability. At worst, if H5N1 starts to infect humans in India, a sixth of the world's population will become more than merely unstable. A major crisis will erupt, in a region where two countries (four if you count China and Russia, five if you count Israel) have nuclear weapons.
And the major English-language media in the West can't even be bothered to pick up a paragraph or two from Associated Press or AFP or Reuters.
Granted, western media have never paid much attention to the problems of non-white countries unless those problems involved a bus or train falling into a gorge and passengers dying in large numbers. That kind of story reassures us that those poor brown people really can't look after themselves, can they?
After five or six centuries of prosperity built on imperialism and racism, the West isn't going to suddenly change its attitude toward its ex-colonies. And we're not the only ones—when I taught in China in the 1980s, my perceptive wife noticed that in Chinese TV news, bad things happened overseas. All the Chinese stories were good news.
Even so, you would think that Britain and the United States and Canada would pay some kind of attention to events in a large, important, and economically rising country like India. Our parochial fascination with trivia—the death of an Australian actor, the state of mind of a zoo's polar bear, the size of a prehistoric South American rodent—is not just stupid. It's unsanitary.
http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/
'No H5N1 testing' does not equal 'No cases'...
There have been no cases reported because there is little or no H5N1 testing going on anywhere in India.
Here are a few snips from another forum talking about different states/provinces in India:
Margrum:
"Reports keep pouring in that many people in flu-affected districts are suffering fever, cold and cough," state health minister Surya Kanta Mishra added. Humans with bird flu exhibit similar symptoms."...
Birbhum:
".. A total of 1400 persons [763 in 0-3 Km area and 637 in 3-10 km area] with fever/URI have been detected during surveillance. In the identified hospital 214 cases of fever/URI have reported."...
Birbhum:
".. A total of 1633 animal health workers [veterinary surgeon, poultry workers, cullers, spraying workers etc.] have been medically examined/followed up and 5 have been found unfit. All are under chemoprophylaxis."...
Murshidabad:
".. 131 persons with Fever/URI have been found during the survey. 21 persons with fever/URI with exposure history are also being followed up. They have no signs of lower respiratory tract infection."...
Nadia:
".. A total of 166 persons [92 in 0-3 Km area and 74 in 3-10 km area] with fever/URI have been detected during surveillance. There is no exposure history. "...
Burdwan:
".. There had been 40 persons having URI/ Fever with no exposure history
And on and on and on...
Given India's 'ignorance and poverty', it's likely that many could die from this outbreak. And we will never know about most of them.
When the good Doctor stated that H5N1 was out of control in India, that was not an exaggeration in any sense. It is out of control. And no testing does not equal no cases. If the media is portraying that, then they are spinning.
spindoctor10x
Cytokine Suppressors?...
The story below, on the surface, seems like good news for the development of cytokine suppressors. But, what this story demonstrates, is further evidence of the brilliance of NNVC's H5N1 (et. al.) Influenza strategy. The Scientists in this article appear, as many others, to be simply flailing in the dark on a solution. And this is a solution that Dr. Webster (hands down one of the most brilliant Influenza Scientists in the world) has already stated was examined and found ineffective. Regardless of that, the media grabs onto it and prints it anyway. Amazing. With H5N1 evolving away from Tamiflu's earlier effectiveness, there is nothing left standing in the gap. That is, there is nothing available until NNVC demonstrates FluCide's effectiveness. Incredibly, I read this blurb about the Case Fatality Rate in the 80%+ range!!! [[[..."With 98 deaths out of 120 cases, Indonesia's case fatality ratio is 81.6%. But if we look just at the 45 cases since January 2007 (including 3 so far this year, all fatal), the CFR rises to 88.8%."... http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/ ]]]. This CFR is unheard-of and totally astounding. As influenzas evolve, they always develop a lower CFR, not higher. Ebola and the Plague are the only diseases that I know-of that have/had worse CFR's.
Hurry NNVC, hurry.
weaintinKansasnomoreToto10x
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Tests home in on new hope against bird flu
Julia Hinde | January 19, 2008
A FLOOD of alarming reports detailing the horrors the world could expect in the event of another bird flu pandemic swept the globe in 2005 and 2006.
Prompted by cases in Asian countries, and the worldwide spread of the H5N1 virus by migrating birds, the coverage left no one in doubt that a new pandemic could be devastating. Further sobering details came with the publication by Australian and some other governments of necessarily draconian plans that would be available to deal with any serious outbreak - as well as the stockpiling of millions of doses of unproven antiviral drugs. The reports about bird flu have slowed to a trickle. But the threat has not gone away.
Now a group of Australian researchers has published data that might point the way to an alternative - and potentially cheaper - way to fight the next major outbreak. Led by Ian Clark of the Australian National University (ANU), the researchers used gemfibrozil, a drug already approved for human use as a cholesterol-lowering medication, to treat mice infected with a potent influenza virus. The team reports a doubling in survival rates for infected mice when they were given a course of gemfibrozil, starting four days after they became infected.
According to ANU postdoctoral fellow Lisa Alleva, who is an author on the paper, gemfibrozil was chosen because as well as having cholesterol-lowering properties, it is known to have anti-inflammatory effects and reduces immune system particles called "proinflammatory cytokines". Cytokines are important signalling molecules in the body which, during an immune response, signal immune cells to travel to the site of an infection. But a number of recent studies have reported pronounced increases in proinflammatory cytokines after infection with potent influenza viruses. This has led many in the scientific community to suggest the high mortality associated with viruses such as avian flu might in fact be the result of a massive immune system overreaction - a so-called cytokine storm - which in turn triggers further inflammation, lung damage and even death.
Hence, the ANU team, rather than targeting the virus itself, set out to target the hypothesised immune system overreaction with an immune-modulating drug. "We trawled through the literature believing that influenza mortality is primarily caused by an over-exuberant immune response," explains Alleva. "We looked for pre-existing drugs used in human populations that may have side effects which were anti-inflammatory. "When we tried gemfibrozil, it worked so well, we ran with it."
In the paper - published in the journal Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy (2007;51(8):2965-2968 - the researchers suggest that if this principle translates to patients, "a drug already approved for human use... might be adapted relatively fast for use against influenza, conceivably including human infection with a derivative of the avian H5N1 strain". If this turns out to be true, governments across the world might have reason to breathe a sigh of relief. Current pandemic planning has largely involved stockpiling the expensive antiviral drugs Tamiflu and Relenza. These would almost certainly have to be rationed to workers in critical industries and other key figures, even in the nations that could afford them; they would probably not be available at all to the bulk of people in the world's poorest countries.
Existing planning also assumes that as soon as the precise nature of the infectious agent was known, work would start to develop a vaccine. However, this would take months before it was available, and mass vaccination programs would be a logistical challenge. According to Alleva, the benefits of gemfibrozil - if it worked in humans - could be substantial. "It's been used in the human population for 20 years, hence there is a very long safety record," she says. "There are generic brands which are off-patent, so they are cheap. They are produced all around the world and are likely to be available where they will be most needed." Additionally, the team's data suggests that enhanced survival does not depend on giving gemfibrozil before the onset of the illness, or even in the very early days, as is the case with antivirals.
Alleva says this is important "because we appreciate there are early immune responses which are protective". The time delay might be crucial in a pandemic where "it's going to be crazy". She says the ANU team's work followed a paper by David Fedson, former director of medical affairs at drug company Aventis-Pasteur, who proposed investigating a group of widely available cholesterol-lowering drugs, called statins, which exhibit anti-inflammatory and immunomodulatory effects. The ANU team is now urgently seeking further funding to take forward its gemfibrozil research. Importantly, says Alleva, they need to redo their studies using the currently circulating H5N1 avian flu virus, rather than the H2N2 virus - the strain that caused the 1957 flu pandemic - which the team used initially. In Australia, work with live H5N1 can only be undertaken at CSIRO's Australian Animal Health Laboratory at Geelong.
However, according to Alleva, an application to the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) for funding for this was recently unsuccessful. The team also needs to investigate whether gemfibrozil is acting as an anti-inflammatory or an antiviral in this case, or as both. "We are still trying to understand the mechanisms," Alleva says. "I think this work needs to be taken forward." Others appear to agree. Stephen Turner, senior lecturer in the Department of Microbiology and Immunology at the University of Melbourne, believes it is "likely that the immune response causes much of the damage in pathogenic influenza".
He adds that using anti-inflammatory drugs, such as statins, is a relatively new approach in influenza. "It's a worthwhile strategy," he suggests. Anne Kelso, director of the Melbourne-based WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, notes there is "a lot of interest in the idea of a cytokine storm causing damage in influenza". "I would not consider it a proven mechanism, but it's an interesting idea which deserves further research," she says. She adds the idea of using immune-modulating drugs is interesting. "We need all the tools we can find," she says. But not all of the research would suggest Professor Clark's team is onto a winner in trying to modulate the body's immune response to pathogenic influenza.
A team at the St Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis in the US - where Australia's Nobel laureate and influenza researcher Peter Doherty also has a lab - has recently questioned the notion that the cytokine storm is the main cause of death during H5N1 infection. A team at the hospital, led by influenza expert Robert Webster, reported in July's Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2007;104(30):12479-12481) that inhibition of the cytokine response did not protect mice from dying when infected with an H5N1 influenza virus. Rather, according to one of the paper's authors, Rachelle Salomon, "our findings, using mice genetically deficient in hallmark pro-inflammatory cytokines, indicated that under these conditions there was no difference in morbidity and mortality (compared with normal mice) following infection with the most highly pathogenic H5N1 described to date".
Despite these negative results, and the Memphis group's view that stopping the virus from replicating is a more promising strategy than inhibiting the body's cytokine response, Salomon adds that the ANU team's results are "very interesting". "This is a very important area of research," she says. "None of these studies have definitively answered what the contribution of the cytokines are to the pathogenesis of H5N1 and whether anti-inflammatory drugs will be protective. "The effects of intervening in the immune response to highly pathogenic avian influenza virus are not well understood. "We definitely think cytokines are important. We do encourage more research into the contribution of cytokines. There are more questions out there."
http://www.birdflubreakingnews.com/templates/birdflu/window.php?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.animallab.com%2FNews_Articles.asp%3Fpid%3D252
FINE. Done.
happynow?10x
THX!eom10x
Anyone with Level II? Looking to buy more Twinkies and curious what the numbre's saying?...
Putting money where mouth is.
careful...youdontknowwhereitsbeen...Euw10x
Poverty and Ignorance...
In all cases, when a species over-populates, there is always a corrective measure arrived at to reverse the situation. In mankind's case, it seems that our corrective measure will be poverty and ignorance. Amazing.
Darwin10x
DR. F of Clusters...
Reports gleaned from local Egyptian papers indicate new hospital admission of 25 - 50 per day [[[ summarized here http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/ in the Current News Forum ]]]. These people are infected with many possible pathogens (seasonal flu, one of the many Adenovirus', H5N1 or a whole list of other possibilities). The problem is that blanket Tamiflu application creates false negatives in H5N1 infected patients because Tamiflu suppresses the anti-bodies that the H5N1 tests look for. So this creates a conundrum. The only hope (currently) when one is infected with H5N1 (and the effectiveness is technically up for debate), Tamiflu, is actually masking the scope of the problem. The world will not comprehend the scope of the infection penetration until it's obvious. At the time, quarantines will not stop the spread.
Regardless, once the media gets ahold of rate of Egyptian hospital admissions and runs the numbers on the TV news crawls, I predict that the emotion/mo-mo players will show up again and then it's off to the races.
heyMoe!10x
nano of early warning...
I once read a description from a Virologist regarding Virus evolution as the following (summarized via my bourbon impacted brain cells): Virus evolution/genetic drift/recombination to eventual pandemic is akin to a slot machine. You drop a coin and pull the lever. Drop and coin and pull the lever. Ad infinitum. And odds are against you that you will hit the winning combination of fruit and dollar signs. But if you drop enough coins and pull the lever enough times, eventually you will hit the winning combination. And virus evolution is much the same. But in this case, there are billions and billions, and maybe trillions and trillions of virus' drifting/evolving/recombining at any given second. That's a lot of fruit and dollar signs. And THAT is why there is a influenza epidemic/pandemic, on average, every 30-40 years. The last minor pandemic was 1968... 40 years ago. Before that, another minor pandemic in the 50's. Before that, the big one in 1918. So, statistically, we are due. Minor or major pandemic, we are due. And, like it or not, statistics or the law of averages must be satisfied. [[[ Sidebar: On a related note, we are statistically due (overdue?) for a PR... ]]] That's just the way of things. Some call my 'Law of Averages' position alarmist. But that's okay. I don't mind being called alarmist... when I'm right. Statistics never lie. I've been watching developments in Pakistan and Egypt closely and things there are growing scary. And doctors are now realizing that applying Tamiflu blankets over infected areas actually blunts the H5N1 tests making positive infections appear as false negatives. When a negative test result patient drowns in their own fluids from pneumonia, doctors begin to doubt their negative test results. And the Tamiflu Conundrum is born. It becomes a stealth pandemic. So when things go pandemic, we won't actually know that there is a problem until the bodies start to pile up. All the while, the WHO will be saying, "What?!!! What bodies?!!! What?!!! Nothing to see here... move along." hehaho. I just really, really hope that things hold off for another year or two... or just long enough for NNVC to build manufacturing capacity. Regardless of being Hawkish or Dovish about a future pandemic, the law of averages demands it's satisfaction.
statistician10x
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
..."But the germ, scientists agree, is a time bomb in search of the right fuse. Viruses evolve rapidly, and a few genetic changes in the right places could enable the avian flu to easily infect people and ignite a firestorm of human illness akin to the 1918 global flu epidemic that killed tens of millions. Even more worrisome, scientists fear the pandemic could be well underway before they realize it, unless they can develop an early warning system to detect when the germ has made a lethal change in its genetic clothing."...
Nothing to see here... move along...
I suspect the last statement before a pandemic will sound just about like the one from the WHO below.... hehaho!
PS. here's another fab site for the latest an greatest: http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=94
flubug10x
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EGYPT: No bird flu pandemic despite recent deaths - health officials
DUBAI, 3 January 2008 (IRIN) - Four humans have died of bird flu in Egypt in the past week but health officials deny the country is gripped by an influenza pandemic.
“There is still no fear that the virus has transformed into an influenza pandemic,” John Jabbour, a medical consultant for emerging diseases at the World Health Organization (WHO) regional office for the Eastern Mediterranean, told IRIN.
Sixteen other suspected cases were admitted to hospital on 2 January, according to Amany Nakhla, the regional planning assistant for the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) regional office, in Cairo.
According to media reports, the H5N1 strain has been detected among poultry in the Nile Delta, especially those reared in homesteads.
All four deaths in the past week were of women from the Nile Delta region and they brought to 19 the number of people who have died of the H5N1 strain of avian flu since avian flu was first detected in Egypt in 2006. Three of the four women were infected by domestic birds in their homes. The fourth was a poultry seller.
The WHO has said some of those who died having contracted the H5N1 virus strain showed moderate resistance to Tamiflu, the antiviral drug.
Before their deaths the last reported case of a human death from bird flu was in June 2007. “Avian flu is a behavioural disease and as a long time has passed since it [last] appeared in the country, people went back to their previous habits of raising poultry inside their homes because it is the only source of income for many of them,” Jabbour said.
Precautionary measures
Egypt has taken extensive precautionary measures against bird flu since it appeared in the country in 2006. “We formed a higher committee to combat bird flu which convenes every month... The committee includes representatives from the Ministry of Health, the Ministry of Agriculture, the different provinces and security forces,” Abdel Ghaffar Abdel Nasser, head of the disease surveillance unit at the Ministry of Health, told IRIN.
“We reached an advanced stage in our global pandemic plan on the national level, too, and we are working now at the provincial and hospital level. This plan focuses on defining the responsibilities of each party in case the disease becomes a global pandemic,” Adel Nasser noted.
“The awareness campaigns we conducted were very fruitful. For example, all the cases among children reported last year were cured. Mothers immediately took their children to hospital once they suspected that they [the children] had some bird flu symptoms,” he said.
“What we noticed recently is that people are becoming lazy in reporting the death of their poultry or the appearance of symptoms… Many of those who go to hospital after the appearance of bird flu symptoms still lie to doctors when asked if they raise poultry at home,” he said.
Transportation of birds
The government has said that the large number of people who keep poultry at home makes it difficult to eradicate the disease. Because of this the government declared an emergency in the Delta region in an attempt to stop the spread of the virus. It has also warned that it will take strong measures against farms that do not follow the rules for raising poultry.
The government also banned the transport of birds from one province to another without permission. “Before moving the birds, dealers should inform the veterinary medicine unit which in turn will take some samples of the birds and send them to the laboratory for testing. Permission is issued if the results are negative,” said Saber Abdel Aziz, head of the general directorate of poultry epidemics and diseases at the Ministry of Agriculture.
The vehicles that transport live poultry are stopped for inspection at different checkpoints throughout the country. “There are at least 100 checkpoints in every province and security forces and veterinary specialists are available in three shifts,” he added.
Abdel Aziz said the ministry had increased its budget for vaccinations this year. “We are planning to give 200 million vaccination doses this year compared to 150 million last year.”
In the second phase of its vaccination campaign, which stared on 15 December and which will end on 15 March, the ministry aims to vaccinate 85 million domestic birds.
“The vaccines are free of charge for domestically-bred birds,” Abdul Aziz said. The first phase of the campaign, which started in June and ended in December 2007, targeted 76 million birds in all.
Report can be found online at:
http://www.irnnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=76083
H5N1 Vaccine? hehaho.
That funny. Sound like a forward looking PR to me. This old theory wrapped with smoke & mirrors that sometimes work great in lab. Not so great in real world where there are hundreds of different virulent strains circulating that are evolving, drifting and recombining at any given time.
Sound like Vaccine lotto. Odds of success about the same.
iwinBigGametomorrownightforsure10x
nano of 'out of time'...
You right about that brother. The beast is evolving via Darwin. Survival of fittest. And the fittest virus winning. Tamiflu is soon becoming useless. Tami killed the weak viri and the strong ignored Tami. Now strong left standing. Thumbing nose at Tami.
We ain't in Kansas no more Toto. Hurry, NNVC, hurry. This about to get messy.
ifIonlyhadabrain10x
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
H5N1 Tamiflu Resistance Re-emerges in Egypt
Recombinomics Commentary 16:58
January 3, 2008
The WHO has said some of those who died having contracted the H5N1 virus strain showed moderate resistance to Tamiflu, the antiviral drug.
The above comments indicate N294S has re-emerged in the Egypt. Almost exactly one year ago N294S was detected in the Gharbiya cluster. It reduced the efficiency of oseltamivir (Tamiflu) by 15-20 fold and was characterized by WHO as having “moderate” resistance because another resistance marker, H294Y, reduces efficiency by 1000 fold in patients in Vietnam.
However, the effectiveness of Tamiflu in the treatment of H5N1 is borderline, so a twenty fold reduction can lead to fatal infections. Since there have only been four recent confirmed fatalities in Egypt, at least half have H5N1 with moderate resistance, which is almost certainly due to N294S.
Last year H5N1 sequences were generated from two of the three cluster members. Samples had been collected prior to Tamiflu treatment, as well as 48 hours after treatment started (A/Egypt/14724-NAMRU3/2006 and A/Egypt/14724-NAMRU3/2006,). All four NA sequences had N294S, indicating the change was already present in the H5N1, which was probably in birds, based on the epidemiology of the cluster.
The presence of N294S in birds was supported by two prior isolates from China, A/duck/Zhejiang/bj/2002(H5N1) and A/Duck/Hong Kong/380.5/2001(H5N1), which had the same change. The change was not found in a limited survey of bird isolates in Egypt, and was not detected in any of the subsequent human isolates.
However, the new fatal cases this season raise the possibility that N294S has returned, and the comments above suggest that this is the case, since “some” patients have “moderate” resistance.
It is not clear if these infections involve the Gharbiya strain, detected a year ago, or the Uva Lake strain which has appended the N294S onto a new genetic background via recombination.
Release of the human and bird sequences in Egypt would be useful.
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01030805/H5N1_N294S_Again.html
Dr. F of Timelines...
Just when I think that you can't impress me further, there you go again. Sheesh. Cut it out.
You rock.
PS. I root for Mitch-igan. They need the help.
nowmyherotimes10x
nano...
And THAT is why I read Niman's site. He said more than 2 weeks ago that there were troubling signs out of Pakistan. TWO WEEKS AGO! And now the mainstream media is running WHO PR's about 'limited' H2H. Amazing.
As Niman says, "H5N1 does not read press releases."
http://www.recombinomics.com/whats_new.html
Nimanfan10x
OT Old News... Cyberdyne Systems AI here we come!
Intel and Micron Strengthen Nanosys Flash Memory Ties
Jul 1, 2006
Nanosys Inc. is further expanding its nanotechnology-enabled memory collaboration with Intel Corp. and Micron Technology, Inc. The collaboration utilizes Nanosys' proprietary nanostructures to address high density NAND flash memory opportunities in areas such as consumer electronics, portable storage, and personal communications.
"We are extremely pleased to be working with two of the top leaders in the area of non-volatile memory," says Calvin Chow, Nanosys' chief executive officer. "Together, Intel and Micron bring an unparalleled set of capabilities that will help accelerate the development and incorporation of our nanostructures into non-volatile memory devices."
"Our collaboration with Nanosys is part of our extensive R&D efforts ...
http://www.mywire.com/pubs/NanoparticleNews/2006/07/01/1743113
lifeimitatingart10x
nano...
Fantastic find! No doubt we are on the edge of hundreds of discoveries using nano-tech.
...but, at the same time, after just seeing 'I am Legend', I can't get over the striking similarities ('Use a virus to kill a virus"). It's like life-imitating-art.... aka NNVC imitating 'I am Legend' (also aka Omega Man). Sheesh, how long until the Gov kicks off Skynet?... Maybe nano technology will eventually be integrated into future (already?) computer chips and then we will arrive at self-awareness. Eeeks. Remember that Jules Verne dreampt of submarines in 1870 long before they became a reality. It's almost like a visionary dreamer has to wrap our tiny minds around the concept before we can create the reality.
CyberdyneSystems10x
Knock-Knock?....
WHO's there? WHO. WHO's who? A rat, that's WHO.
The facts: 1) The WHO has delayed a situation update about Pakistan, with the disease onset dates of the confirmed patients and the relationships of the patients to each other, and receptor binding domain changes in H5N1 sequences - something they never do. 2) The WHO sent a team of experts to Pakistan to help investigate the situation, and US Navy Medical Research Unit 3 (NAMRU-3) in Cairo has sent a portable laboratory. 3) The NAMRU unit sent samples of what they found to London even though this is unnecessary and means that they found receptor binding domain changes that they wanted London to review to determine if these changes are associated with receptor binding affinity changes (the last step before a pandemic). 4) New cases have been confirmed this month by NAMRU-3, which contradicts statements made yesterday by the Pakistan Ministry of Health (yeah, big surprise there). 5) "The delay in the WHO situation update again points toward serious issues in Pakistan, which may have generated the most sustained H5N1 transmission chain reported to date." Niman.
The WHO press releases are BS smoke and mirrors. The real question is why the BS?... Why the smoke and mirrors? There really is only one reason that I can even guess at. Control. It's no wonder the Indonesian Government does not want to release samples to the WHO.
To quote my other hero, Dr. Niman, "The lack of transparency increases pandemic concerns."
It's not just knocking at the door, my friend. It's already inside, sitting on the couch, having a sandwich and a coke watching the Patriots go 16 & 0.
Ismellarat10x
nanopanicdepressor....
"Move along... nothing to see here...".
nocauseforalarmhehaho10x
Is must be me?
Is it me over-reacting or was anyone else amazed that one simple plane flight from a Pakistan H5N1 hot zone could have (may have?) brought an efficiently transmittable H5N1 here the US?!!! That's how simple it's going to start. And the WHO is still not sure if it's already started in Indonesia or Pakistan. Reminds me of the cop standing in front of the blood spattered murder scene saying, "Move along... nothing to see here...".
YIKES10x
WAY OT... Yeah, and thusly a very target rich environment (all the single women). And the women/models there in Miami... ohhh my goodness. Best place for that I've EVER visited. WAY better than Maui (sorry Doc). I strongly recommend the south end of the beach in South Beach. Jinkies.
womenarecool10x
Sustained H2H?...
Brilliant Dr. Niman. Absolutely brilliant.
readandlearn10x
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Sustained Human to Human H5N1 Transmission in Pakistan?
Recombinomics Commentary
December 19, 2007
"Right now it doesn't look like pure human to human transmission. It looks like the veterinarian, who was the index case, and a number of other suspect cases had poultry exposure," Fukuda told Reuters in an interview.
"It is definitely possible that we have a mixed scenario where we have poultry to human infection and possible human to human transmission within a family, which is not yet verified." But human to human transmission "would not be particularly surprising or unprecedented," he added.
In Thailand, a mother was killed by the virus in 2004 after cradling her dying infected daughter all night. The largest known cluster of human bird flu cases worldwide occurred in May 2006 in Indonesia's North Sumatra province, where as many as seven people in an extended family died.
-- -- --
The above comments on the human to human (H2H) transmission in Pakistan, and two examples of such infections in the past are accurate, but the extensive H2H transmission in Pakistan is likely to cause confusion, because media reports and the public believe that H2H of H5N1 is rare, when it is very common. The more extended transmission chains, as noted above, are rarer, and the transmission in Pakistan may be the most sustained H2H reported to date, but H2H among family members is quite common, and most first reports of H5N1 in patients are H2H clusters.
The H5N1 H2H usually involves only two people, which are the index case and a family member caring for the index case. These small clusters have the diagnostic time gap between onset dates, but the linkage of the index case to a poultry source extends to a family member, so the proof of H2H is not absolute.
When there are two time gaps, suggesting H2H2H, then the likelihood of H2H increases markedly, especially when there is epidemiological data linking the cases.
However, the number of cited H2H examples is also reduced because samples are frequently not collected from the index case, and testing of contacts may use samples collected after the start of prophylactic oseltamivir (Tamiflu) treatment.
In the first example above. The lack of a poultry connection added to the likelihood that H2H was involved, and the number in the cluster was three and there were two time gaps. Therefore, it has been cited as the first example of H2H. The index case was a child staying with her aunt in rural Thailand. Her mother was an office worker in Bangkok. The index case was likely infected by a pet chicken, which died and was buried by the child. However, she was mis-diagnosed as having dengue fever. Consequently, there was no protective equipment given to her visiting mother, who was probably infected while holding her daughter in the hospital. The daughter died and was never tested for H5N1, but the mother developed symptoms after returning to Bangkok, and the aunt of the index case also developed symptoms several days after the mother left. Initially the mother was not tested either, but after she died, a nurse notified investigators of the bird flu symptoms, and samples were collected just prior to cremation. The mother was H5N1 positive and the aunt was also H5N1 positive, although initial tests on the aunt were inconclusive. Thus, if there wasn’t a cluster, it is likely hat none of the cases would have been official confirmed cases. However, because of the lab confirmation in the mother and aunt, the cluster is a strong example of H2H or H2H2H.
The cluster in Indonesia is also considered to be a cluster because there were two time gaps, and there was epidemiological evidence for H2H2H. However, the index case died prior to collection of a sample. Seven family members tested positive for H5N1 and the onset of symptoms was several days after the index case, most of whom slept in the same room as the index case while she was very sick and coughing extensively. The son of one of the infected brothers also developed symptoms several days after his father, so the Indonesia clusters was H2H2H, although the index case was not lab confirmed.
Most clusters however only involve two family members. The first cases in Cambodia were a cluster. The index case collected dead chickens. He developed bird flu symptoms and died prior to sample collection. When his sister developed symptoms, she went to Vietnam for treatment and was H5N1 confirmed after she died, so although the brother likely infected his sister, the cluster was not considered H2H because no sample was collected from the brother. The first cases in Hunan China were also a cluster with a time gap, but were not considered a cluster until a rising antibody titer was detected in the index case after he died. The first cases in Indonesia were also a cluster, but there were no early samples from the index case, no sample was collected from her sister, and H5N1 was confirmed in the father after his two daughters had died. This cluster had two time gaps, but one sister was not an official case because she was not tested.
There are dozens of similar examples. Some of the earlier clusters from Vietnam and Thailand were published, but there have been many examples since the earlier clusters were reported, and these clusters include the first case from Turkey, Iraq, Azerbaijan, and Nigeria. All of these cases involve the Qinghai strain of H5N1, which is almost certainly the case fro the cluster from Pakistan.
However, this cluster is likely to the most sustained to date. The index case was a veterinarian who developed symptoms on October 25. Two brothers developed symptoms after visiting the index case in the hospital, and the dates of death on November 19 and 29 suggest this transmission chain was H2H2H. However, at least two more brothers were infected, and one or two health care workers had symptoms or were H5N1 confirmed, so they represent H2H2H2H, if confirmed, and since one is still hospitalized, the transmission has been sustained for two months. Moreover, samples of contacts are being collected after the start of Tamiflu treatment, so additional transmissions may not be lab confirmed.
The detail of this cluster will be clearer when disease onset dates are released, but the current cluster appears to be the most sustained H5N1 cluster reported to date, and also representing the largest number of links on the chain.
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/12200701/H5N1_Pakistan_Sustained.html
http://www.recombinomics.com/whats_new.html
H2H2H2H2H Transmission (5x)...
Chicken to 1) Veteranarian - 2) Two Brothers - 3) Two more Brothers - 4) Cousin - 5) Health Care Worker (Doctor)?
Looks like much more efficient transmission...
uhoh10x
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Hospitalized Doctor Raises Pandemic Concerns in Pakistan
Recombinomics Commentary
December 19, 2007
“Two people have been discharged while the third one, a KTH doctor, is suspected to be infected and officials are awaiting his test reports from the National Institute of Health (NIH) Islamabad,” he added.
The above comments describe a male health care worker hospitalized at Khyber Teaching Hospital (KTH). Earlier media reports described a female health care worker who had tested positive for H5N1. It is not clear if these two reports refer to the same health care worker, or if there are two who are either lab confirmed or hospitalized. Earlier media reports indicated the lab positive health care worker was not hospitalized.
A hospitalized health care work at this time is cause for concern. Although no official onset dates have been released, the consensus in media reports indicates the index case for the larger familial cluster was a veterinarian who organized a cull October 21-23. He developed symptoms on October 25 and was hospitalized at KTH. Two of his brothers, who were students and were not involved in the cull, visited him at the hospital and were subsequently hospitalized there. These two brothers died November 19 and 29. One was tested and was H5N1 positive as were two other brothers and a cousin. The above comments suggest at least one of the surviving relatives was also hospitalized at KTH.
If the above health care work is H5N1 confirmed, a long transmission chain is likely, based on the disease onset date of the index cases on October 25 and the dates of the deaths of the two brothers, November 19 and 29.
Disease onset dates and contact dates are required to detail the chain, but a chain for almost two months would be an H5N1 record and increase pandemic concerns.
Details, including disease onset dates and confirming lab tests, as well as sequence data, would be useful.
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/12190702/H5N1_Pakistan_HCW_2.html
nano...
Given that the brother may have been taking Tamiflu before his H5N1 test, his results may be a false negative.
andthisishowitbegins10x
Per Niman:
False H5N1 Negatives in Pakistan and the United States?
Recombinomics Commentary
December 17, 2007
The Health Ministry said it was treating people who had been in contact with those infected, setting up isolation wards and procuring drugs for treatment and protective clothing for health workers.
The above update raises additional questions regarding the spread of H5N1 in Pakistan and the United States. Testing of samples collected after the start of Tamiflu treatment can generate false negatives, since Tamiflu reduces v\ral load, which is the target of PCR testing. Earlier reports indicated several H5N1 patients had mild symptoms or were asymptomatic, but registered positive on a "less reliable" test, which was likely to be an H5 antibody test. This testing may be more reliable than PCR testing for patients who have already started Tamiflu treatment. Ideally, samples would be collected before or at the start of Tamiflu treatment.
The above information raises questions about the brother (38M) who returned to the US after attending funeral(s) of his two brothers in Pakistan (see Nassua County report). Since the dates of death were ten days apart (November 19 and 29), there would be significant exposure opportunities if the visiting brother was in Pakistan for both funerals.
The Nassua report indicates the patient was prescribed Tamiflu also, but it is unclear if specimens were collected before or after the start of treatment (which may have begun in Pakistan).
More information on the testing, including follow-up tests on convalescent, serum would be useful.
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/12170704/H5N1_Pakistan_US_False.html
nano...
You might find the info here interesting: http://www.recombinomics.com/Adeno_14.html
regards10x
Dr. F...
You are a credit to our species my friend. Thank you for the incredible summary. Again.
yourock10x
cyber...
Go here and read for a few days: http://www.recombinomics.com/whats_new.html
There is much info here about H5N1 H2H and how it's more prevalent than the UN and other Governments want us to know. Dr. Niman, who runs this site (and company), is considered an alarmist by some and a quack by the 'establishment'. But, Dr. Niman has been way ahead of the curve about many things that were not even on the radar screen of the establishment. He's not always right... but he's right more often than wrong. He has some incredible theories about virus evolution via recombintion (swapping/sharing of genetic information between virus') and claims that via his math models that he can predict where the virus evolution is headed and how far we have to go before we go pandemic.
Nimanfan10x
The scariest part about the new strain of Ebola is that the case fatality rate has fallen to ~22%. For a virus to go pandemic, a decrease in virulence must occur. It did. Past Ebola virus' had a CFR of 80-90%+ which killed most victims before they could transmit the virus to others or flee the infected areas. With the CFR dropping, pandemic warning bells will be going off all over this region of Africa. And given the 2 - 21 day incubation period, that gives the infected lots of time to move great distances or even leave the country. I hope that travel from this area is banned. Soon.
uh-oh10x
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
FACTBOX - What is Ebola?
Thu Dec 6, 2007 12:09pm EST
Dec 6 (Reuters) - A new strain of the deadly Ebola virus is thought to have infected 93 people and killed at least 22 in Uganda, including a doctor and three other medical staff looking after patients, a health official said on Thursday.
The last time Uganda was hit by an epidemic of Ebola -- a disease in which those infected often bleed to death -- 425 people caught it in 2000. Just over half of them died.
Here are some key facts on Ebola:
* ORIGINS:
-- Ebola haemorrhagic fever (EHF) is a severe, often fatal disease in humans and non-human primates (monkeys, gorillas, and chimpanzees) that has appeared sporadically since its initial recognition in 1976.
-- The disease is caused by infection with Ebola virus, named after a river in the Democratic Republic of Congo (formerly Zaire) in Africa, where it was first recognised.
-- The Ebola virus comprises four distinct subtypes: Zaire, Sudan, Côte d'Ivoire and Reston. Three subtypes, occurring in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan and the Ivory Coast, have been identified as causing illness in humans. EHF is a febrile haemorrhagic illness which causes death in between 50 and 90 percent of all clinically ill cases.
-- Genetic analysis of samples taken from some of the new victims show this virus is a previously unrecorded type of Ebola, making it a fifth strain, U.S. and Ugandan health officials have said. The unusually low death rate of this type -- at roughly 22 percent -- shows it is less lethal than previous epidemics.
* SYMPTOMS:
-- Ebola is often characterised by the sudden onset of fever, intense weakness, muscle pain, headache and sore throat.
-- This is often followed by vomiting, diarrhoea, rash, impaired kidney and liver function and, in some cases, both internal and external bleeding.
-- The fever has an incubation period of two to 21 days.
-- No specific treatment or vaccine is yet available.
* TRANSMISSION:
-- The Ebola virus is transmitted by direct contact with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids of infected people.
-- Burial ceremonies where mourners have direct contact with the body of the deceased person can play a significant role in the transmission of Ebola. Health care workers have frequently been infected while treating Ebola patients.
* MAJOR OUTBREAKS:
-- Between June and November 1976, EHF infected 284 people in Sudan, causing 151 deaths. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, there were 318 cases and 280 deaths in late 1976.
-- Between September 2000 and January 2001, the Sudan subtype of the Ebola virus infected 425 people, including 224 deaths, making it the largest epidemic so far of Ebola.
-- From October 2001 to December 2003, several EHF outbreaks of the Zaire subtype, were reported in Gabon and the Republic of Congo, with a total of 302 cases and 254 deaths.
-- Earlier this month, health officials in Democratic Republic of Congo declared the end of an Ebola outbreak, which it is believed has killed up to 187 people over 8 months. People began falling ill in April in the village of Kampungu in Western Kasai province with Ebola-like symptoms.
Sources: Reuters/ U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/ World Health Organisation. (Writing by David Cutler, London Editorial Reference Unit)
http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSL06277921
Africa, the ideal Petry dish...
thiswontturnoutwell10x
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Uganda Ebola Spread Confirmed
Recombinomics Commentary
December 6, 2007
Government of Uganda and U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have confirmed 51 cases of suspected hemorrhagic fever, reported in Bundibugyo, Kabarole and Mbarara Districts since September 2007, as Ebola.
The most recently reported three cases, of whom one has died, were recorded in Kabarole’s Fort Portal and Mbarara, and referred to the Ebola Isolation Unit in Bundibugyo.
Health authorities have identified three clusters of infection, each originating from different sites by relative proximity. However, as the most recently identified case was not from the original areas of contamination, investigations are ongoing to determine if there has been an additional outbreak. Two isolation units have been established in Bundibugyo’s Kikywa Health Centre IV (8 cases) and district hospital (9 cases), managed with MSF Switzerland's support. A third centre was established in Kampala's Mulago Hospital (2 cases), managed with MSF Spain support.
-- -- --
The above comments, from a UNICEF report dated December 5, 2007 indicate there has been significant spread of Ebola in Uganda. Earlier reports had described the death of Dr Jonah Kule, 41M, in Mulago Hospital in Kampala, but the above report indicates there are two confirmed cases in the capital. Similarly, there are also confirmed cases in Fort Portal and Mbarara, also signaling significant spread from the epicenter in Bundibugyo.
Media reports indicate the number of suspected cases has now topped 100, but patients are avoiding admission into hospitals, in part because of teh number of fatal infections in health care workers. Therefore, the number of patients silently infected with Ebola may be increasing and the virus may be spreading via fleeing patients.
These complications will impact the number of confirmed or suspect patients and hamper contact tracing. Media reports indicate the number of contacts under observation has increased to 330.
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/12060702/Ebola_Uganda_Spread_Confirmed.html
-- -- --
Suspected cases rise as new Ebola strain stalks Uganda
Dec 6, 2007 (CIDRAP News) – The number of people in Uganda suspected of being infected with a new strain of the Ebola hemorrhagic fever virus has grown to 93, and 22 have died, including four healthcare workers, according to news reports.
The outbreak was first reported on Nov 30 by the World Health Organization (WHO), which said a new subtype of the virus was found to be sickening people in Bundibugyo district in western Uganda. Four Ebola subtypes have previously been identified: Zaire, Sudan, Cote d'Ivoire, and Reston.
Uganda's health ministry said 58 cases have been confirmed in laboratory tests so far, Reuters reported today.
Dr Sam Zaramba, Uganda's director of health services, said one of the healthcare workers was a doctor who died in Kampala's Mulago Hospital after treating a patient in an isolation ward, the Reuters report said.
A report from the BBC today, citing other media reports, said the medical workers became infected with the Ebola virus because they lacked safety equipment. However, Zaramba told Reuters, "All medical staff dealing with Ebola have been issued with protective gear."
Some healthcare workers have threatened to strike unless they receive risk pay and adequate protective equipment, the BBC report said.
Health officials in Uganda say the new Ebola strain seems to have a low death rate when compared with other lethal Ebola strains, according to Reuters. The new strain has a 22%death rate compared with 50% to 90% for the other deadly strains.
However, Tom Ksiazek, MD, chief of the special pathogens branch at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said it's too early to say if the new Ebola strain in milder, the Associated Press (AP) reported yesterday.
Asiya Odugleh-Kolev, a W HO communications official who has worked on several Ebola outbreaks, said a milder Ebola strain might be problematic, because it could spread unnoticed and be confused with other diseases, the AP reported.
Patients have had some unusual initial symptoms, such as vomiting, with the new Ebola strain, WHO spokesperson Gregory Hartl said in a previous AP report. For the other known strains, initial symptoms include fever, headache, joint and muscle aches, sore throat, and weakness, followed by diarrhea, vomiting, and stomach pain, according to the CDC. Some patients have internal and external bleeding. There is no vaccine or specific treatment for the disease.
Meanwhile, members of parliament in Uganda today calledon the government to declare a state of emergency and quarantine areas affected by the Ebola outbreak, All Africa News reported today.
"We need to take radical measures if we are to save our people from this deadly virus," said Theodore Ssekikubo, who represents Rwemiyaga in Ssembabule district, during the parliament session today, according to the All Africa report.
Prime Minister Apollo Nsibambi told members of parliament that a state-of-emergency is an urgent matter that will be discussed at a cabinet meeting tomorrow, All Africa reported.
On Uganda's border with Kenya, health officials from Kenya are screening people entering the country, Dr James Nyikal, the country's head of medical services, told the BBC today.
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/bt/vhf/news/dec0607ebola2.html
A hidden agenda that is as transparent as Britney's undergarments. hehaho.
albeitshedoesntwearany10x
This may turn out to be nothing... but this is how it will start. This is a very scary bug. No cure once you got it and there is a very high case fatality rate once infected.
hohoho10x
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Fatal Ebola Infections in Three Health Care Workers in Uganda
Recombinomics Commentary
December 4, 2007
"The sad news is that our doctor who was admitted in Mulago died last night and a senior clinic officer who had been in critical condition died this morning," said Samuel Kazinga, district commissioner for Bundibugyo, the epicentre of the new outbreak.
Joshua Kule, the senior clinical officer, and the head nurse of the hospital (Peluce) also died this morning, so with Jonah that brings 3 of 6 health care workers admitted dying within 12 hours of each other.
The above comments describe the deaths of three health care workers in the past 12 hours. One had been admitted to the hospital in Kampala, while two were admitted locally. The high fatality rate for the health care workers as well as clusters of cases, raise additional transmission concerns.
One group was linked to attendance at a funeral, raising concerns of transmission by casual contact. The CDC is setting up a local lab for testing, so the number of confirmed cases should rise shortly, which will help determine the spread of the infections..
The sequence of the virus from patients is said to represent a new species, which is almost certainly a recombinant.
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/12050701/Ebola_HCW_Fatalities.html
cyber...
Well said!
yoquieroTacoBell10x
A new uptrend?
Time will tell. Given the latest PR, last Friday could be the lowest price of our run to either getting bought out by a big bio-ceutical or to $100+ SP. Wow, $100 SP, now that's an arousing thought. Now I need a cigarette.
greenday,month,yeartocome10x