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They've been at this for many years and yet remain with zero patent/IP protection on any of their technologies. Why would anyone choose now to "freak out about it"?
**Guitar** you've been mighty quiet since the newest batch of delays were dropped on shareholders. Are you still as confident that InMed will be the first to commercialize? If so, how many delays and continuous drops in the SP are you comfortable with before some hard realities start setting in?
The way I see it is that they have some real issues on the matters of both novelty and inventiveness. Similarly, I'd agree that this PCT is no guaranteed approval.
Problem Steve is many longs don't like the hard facts or thinking critically about this investment. Emotion takes over and runs blindly like a ship in the fog. Everything goes from what should be checking off key milestone activities to a long period of uncertainty with extra helpings of hope.
Of course and yet some act like they're still surprised after years of the same well programmed bullshi%. My suspicions of concern set in around the period of the bio burden road block and the ocular program delays. I'm no longer frustrated with them as much as myself for not unloading more of my position after the split announcement. If I wanted to stick around I'd wait until this is diluted down even further. It's already creeping on those .10 levels pre-split. Longs will need more than a mountain to move to maybe salvage 50% of their losses let alone any chance of ever breaking even.
They really rushed through this one today and I don't blame them. More delays on all current programs. I would be shocked if they ever hit one of their own milestone targets.
"Its yeast fermentation production platform, initially developed for cannabigerol ("CBG") and cannabidiol ("CBD"), has shown impressive success and Willow expects to be the FIRST company to biosynthetically produce material amounts of cannabinoids."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/willow-biosciences-announces-research-development-120000953.html
Expecting, as usual, to hearing nothing of significance on the biz update call in just over an hour. The broader market seems to agree on that. They'll need that IPO raise rather quickly or they'll again be staring down an empty bank account. A rather beautiful disaster they've become.
If I only had taken wagers like that on this board over the past few yrs I wouldn't even care about InMed's share price because I'd be sitting cushier than Mr. Adams is today.
Also, don't make assumptions on subject matter you don't understand. If you did your own research you'd understand the specific limitations of a bacterial approach for this process. The differences between prokaryotic vs eukaryotic cells are essential to understand when looking at cannabinoid biosynthesis.
InMed hasn't delivered anything but power point presentations along w/a massive share consolidation up to this point so I wouldn't get too cocky now on us. They also have zero patent protection even though they've been at this for years which is rather hard to believe.
InMed lost at least a year when their primary biosynthetic pathway was grounded so it's very possible that some of their peers have caught up or passed them by now. I have more faith in Ginkgo/CRON and Willow at this point to get to commercialization. InMed is still prioritizing this program to support their internal pipeline over broader commercialization. I'm more interested in those that are prioritizing the manufacturing of cannabinoids first and foremost for revenue generation.
I'm not arguing, just speaking from a historical perspective. I am watching and considering a re-entry at some point. It may very likely touch the $3's again. Either way I'll wait until a further validation of their scale up activities because I'm not yet convinced they'll get there this time.
i saw the presentation, but I truthfully don't put much stock into their presentation material on milestone timelines. Their history of repeat misses is indicative that this may very well slip again.
I dug around for updates of peers that InMed deems competitors in this space. According to your earlier post Guitar, you claimed that InMed is a year ahead of it's competitors. Assuming this recent development from Willow Biosciences isn't a fabrication, I'd say your statement is false. They along w/a proven partner AMRI will soon deliver pharma grade CBG from a 500L pilot production run w/a goal to be commercializing in 1H21.
https://www.nutraingredients-usa.com/Article/2020/08/18/Willow-Biosciences-to-start-pilot-production-of-biosynthetic-CBG-in-Q3
No where did I say that it was off the table. I said that it hit a brick wall. It being their primary bacterial pathway that was years in development. Almac may be nothing more than a paid for hopeful lifeline as they took the program as far as they could in-house and didn't have any other options. Can you tell me with any certainty that this may not be the current situation? Of course not. You can speculate that Almac wouldn't touch this if they knew it wasn't a sure thing. I'd call BS on that for reasons already noted. If deemed low risk to the organization, many firms will take paid work from outside collaborators that they know are going to be a long-shot.
I also don't personally believe in crystal balls and leave it up to individuals like yourself and others to provide the glittery visions of InMed's investors arguing over private jet trim packages. I used to stop through that FB page. Embarrassing. I've already laid out enough facts, including your bad valuation, on why this once promising investment gets dimmer by the week, even more so after the massive reverse split.
Almac as you've noted is a for profit business with a goal of revenue generation. Don't cloud your judgement thinking that they're execs are kept up at night worrying about young children w/EB.
And by the way, do a little more homework on your figures. They're privately held and turn about half a bil a year. They had a net worth in'18 of 276.9M. So $6 bil???
It used to boggle my mind Steve, but I've just gotten accustomed to that being the way it goes around here. I've seen more people romanticize about InMed over the years absolutely disgusted by facts. Every time someone brings a hard truth they're vilified. It's like the expectations held by many on these forums is that everyone should sit in a bubble and sing praise on false hopes and dreams. Hold your investments accountable? Blasphemy!
I wasn't dismissive that InMed may be a year ahead back around '18 before they went and smacked straight into a brick wall. It's simply a laughable claim to be making today.
Almac isn't even a partner, they're a paid CMO. Even in InMed's own PR they use the words "working with". Do you know why? Because Almac has no skin in the game. If the collaboration works or it doesn't, they get paid regardless. They haven't invested a nickel of their own R&D on this "work". Prove me wrong.
Here's when the excuses come out. InMed isn't taking any investment in the cannabinoid manufacturing as they want to own the entire process. To date that's been a convenient excuse for them. I'd say what is more likely is that aren't any suitors looking to invest, but an ocean full of happy CMO's looking for more paid work.
Shorting?!?! Isn't it even a little hard to type that without laughing a little? Look at a multi yr chart on this company. If there's a good example out there of a company that can easily fall on their own w/out any help from shorts it's InMed. One has to have a sense of humor w/an InMed investment and display it when responding to people dropping conspiracy theories that shorts are responsible for InMed's SP failures.
I can assure you that there's little comfort to be had w/InMed. Unless investors like yourself are taking comfort in losing money. Or investors take comfort in reducing their share count by 33:1. Or investors take comfort in knowing that their only real clinical candidate looking at a large patient pool doesn't even touch the clinic until late '21. Given InMed's history, expect that more realistically be '22.
Or investors take comfort in knowing that what was once romanticized as a potential homerun investment may yield nothing more than a walk or a single. At this stage many will need a double digit SP simply to break even. What that means is maybe, just maybe, they drop that whale sized news that has eluded them for so long and she'll run maybe just enough for you to cash in your chips for what you put in "x" years ago. Pre-split shareholders, especially during consolidations of this size with immediate down trends, are the equivalent of collateral damage.
Unfortunately we now know in hind-sight that they stumbled, very late, into what their peers already knew. This being the hard truth that a prokaryotic host was not feasible to biosynthetically scale cannabinoids.
Not trying to put words in your mouth, but I think what you meant to say was actually "if you didn't anticipate the number of key strategic objectives that would be missed by this management team then you shouldn't have invested in InMed". With that we are in agreement.
For the last 3 years watching paint dry would have to be considered much more exciting than following InMed
The approval really shouldn't be an issue as they're filing under an emerging growth company under the JOBS Act. From what I've heard most of these filings are being approved and sometimes accelerated. Either way, until I see a PR on the approval nothing is guaranteed.
Of course time will tell but let's just first ensure that the uplist is approved by the SEC and then we can get back to speculating what that may mean
The IPO should be based on the open market fair value. I would surely not speculate that the IPO is only for one to a few select investors. Is this guess based on any factual evidence or simple speculation? Everyone here has grown very well accustomed to listening to hype and speculation over the years.
It's better to just ignore the nonsense. All of this repetitive garble of "wolf tickets" indicating some fantasy event when this company continues to just gut punch its shareholders. Most will be fortunate to some day break even.
Absolutely agree. I enjoy the gamble and have hit a couple over the yrs which make it worth it, but most follow InMed's path which is the sequence of events you've laid out below. Shocking to see how many people seem to still be happily buying this down to the single digits (pre-split).
I should have taken the whole lot off the table when the announcement was made, but I shouldn't complain to have sold as much as I did.
I also wondered where that large sell order came from. It's Almac or bust at this point. Drug pipeline activities are not generating any excitement in the near term.
Where's all my little pumpers today? Underperforming was the correct word before the split. Complete dumpster fire is the correct word today. Wow.
The incorrect values reported by the brokerage houses this week will be the closest people will get to ever being millionaires w/InMed
A real shame these pumps can't generate more than a penny increase in SP. IntegraSyn = biosynthesis didn't work so let's try something else
Mr. Adams continued, "In the near term, we expect to complete the fermentation optimization initiative, to complete the process development of the DSP and to scale-up fermentation batches towards commercial scale.
Sound familiar?
Time stamp: May, 2019
Couple of PRs drop and the board is back with all of the emotion. It's like clock work. All of the "I feel", "I think", "I believe", "I'm confident". Funny how this exact pattern happened exactly the same way last year when they were supposed to be close to commercializing before hitting a dead end.
And I wouldn't necessarily agree. They were working to finalize a priority pathway (path 1) w/a different CDMO partner and hit a brick wall. Couldn't identify a viable work around to remain on path 1 and then began exploring other pathways (partners, process steps, etc) to keep biosynthesis going. This is also where the core of their IP filings as well as transfer of technology resided. Today it sounds like they've had to abandon that path for an alternative or multiple alternatives which is not clear.
Who's to say they don't hit the same wall w/Almac? For me, real progress at this stage is a confirmed path, known costs to produce, scale up and commercialization. Anything else is simply more evaluation, more expenditures and most importantly more delays.
Going to have to agree w/Steve here. Although Almac brings some nice pedigree, it tells the investor nothing in regards to the pivoted pathway or pathways to be using Almac. As I've said time and time before it only confirms more delays. They've been working w/them for a few months which would indicate a hard pivot to Almac once pathway 1 hit the biological burden dead-end. So what's the time line now to complete biosynthesis? What is the impact to earlier projections to be commercializing by year end? What are the terms of the new partnership?
From my perspective they're absolutely still in an exploratory stage and no where near commercialization.
Actually that's not it at all. They were already weeks late on their update before COVID came onto the scene. What is really happening is that InMed's history is one that is riddled w/delays. They don't have an adequate answer on biosynthesis so their timing worked out well to just use the COVID landscape as a timely excuse to hold onto any public release. I don't understand how people still make excuses for this company given their track record.
What happened is that they're having real problems on that program and holding onto releasing a public statement for as long as possible.
By saying "the way they are going" do you mean the continuous programmatic delays, a potential biosynthesis dead end and only the beginnings of a topical drug development program that satisfies only an incredibly small global patient population? If so, that would be an accurate statement as that's how they're really going. All that said divide your $100 prediction by 10 and then maybe you're closer to a realistic target.
Those are kind of my thoughts Steve. I don't see how they get by without a share consolidation after a subsequent cash raise and no near-term path to revenue generation. I've been through about a half dozen RSs over the yrs trading some penny stocks like InMed and yes, none of those benefited the share holders in the long-term.
I just really want a real no BS update on biosyn. Enough w/the tap dancing and provide some tangible data to the stakeholders on viability of the multiple paths, cost structures, yields, etc.
Predictions on the timing of the next dilutive cash raise? I'm expecting something in May/June timeframe. No near-term path to licensing or royalties so my expectations are a massive dilutive raise followed by what's likely going to be a reverse split in the following quarter to reduce the share count and artificially increase the SP.
Steve, that's a negative....crickets on my last 2 questions.
And interesting catch comparing the two presentations. I had earlier overlooked that small, but possibly critical language. What we do know is that pathway 1 presented the "biological burden" noted by Dr. Hsu which forced the exploration of alternative approaches. Per Mar presentation they appeared to be moving out w/scale up at CDMO 2 for an enhanced alternative approach. Now this should remain a bacterial approach as per EA in the annual letter to shareholders he noted that they have been exploring a new enzyme for the enhanced process/pathway 2 which could also be applied to baseline microbial pathway 1.
I cannot answer why GMP batch production at CDMO would even be commented on as if it were an option. At this point I was under the impression that we were only waiting on the cost and yield details of the new enhanced pathway 2 approach as they finalized the parameters for batch manufacture. It is unnerving to see "if needed" as opposed to "CDMO 2 or alternative CDMO partner" thus implying manufacturing w/a caveat that they may ID a better partner to produce the goods. They have no in-house scaling capabilities to even satisfy their trial's API requirement.