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Na...those are liquidity points, and everyone playing options in between is hamburg eventually.
At a minimum all long portfolios are down 10% or more.
So even if you are exceeding the 50% accuracy rate needed to make money on options, you aren't covering losses on the larger portfolio if you have one. So even a good year was a down one.
You haven't figured anything monumental out. You're just hamburg for the machines...while big money has been selling all year.
Please see gold.
2021 still the best year to sell stocks for 2 years running. Options being run by computers making most of the people lose most of the time. It's odds making...and that's how it works. You will never be on the right side of the odds.
Thank you and goodnight.
Depends what one was doing the last year and a half. Were thet buying or selling?
Sellers made a fortune....buyers did not.
I don't take financial advice from a country in such horrible financial shape they have to abandon their currency.
See the tricky thing is distribution doesn't usually show up in a chart until it is done, and the bids dry up.
In what bizarro world is buying assets hand over fist a way to hedge inflation.
You are BUYING inflation.
How did it work fir BTC?
Just don't buy stocks. Housing dipping its toe in the correction waters.
Not that they would roll over, but predicting how and why and positioning accordingly.
My target fund juuuuust about where it was when I sold and market still waaaaay over valued.
Love it when a plan full of awful market breadth comes together .
Ever wonder why people's retirement are down way more than SPY number?
Cuz they were getting distributed a year ago...when I said they were.
Wrong. I told you over a year ago we woukd be exaclty where we are. Global war of interest rate hikes to fight inlfation.
Where did your chart tell you we would be a year ago?
I don't remember a call for a 15% haircut?
Your charts show you the past.
Money moving based on monetary and policy is what makes the shape.
We are still at least 2% or more below where the base rate needs to be. Almost double from today.
Care to wager on what that does to things values in dollars as dollar value increases?
When TSLA needed actual cash they had to sell their digital trinkets.
They were of no use. The most expensive sociological experimental belly flop right out in the open.
Bitcoin is eventually toast. You're just watching it oscillate.
Show me the chart of SPY hitting 350...because it is at least going there.
Wrong. A year ago you were watching Kospis and SOX's.
In hindsight the chart looks like a little something.
I'm real time "boys" were playing games.
I specifically remember telling you how you would have to keep stretching the time frame of your chart out to keep matching your thesis.
The chart didn't tell you where price was going. It is just showing you where it is now.
The tax code is built in such a way to prevent large institutions from doing what everyone is trying to accomplish.
The rate of success has to be astronomical to beat the average market rate of return.
Which is why funds rebalance quarterly and such...and not daily.
Profits on a trade are not "profit"
You still have to deduct almost 30% for taxes.
So again...if you made 10%...you cleared 7%....because you can't deduct losses.
Treasuries about to pay 4%.
So....again barely beating treasuries.
Now realize what is realize what is really happening with the eash trading. Say you made 10k 5 times and losses 10k 4 times.
You cleared 10k profit right? Wrong. You didn't get to claim your losses. You pay taxes on your 5 wins...no credit for the L's.
I wouldn't repeat that in public.
I didn't make those numbers up. They are facts.
Just hope for 70% success.
Goof luck to all.
Not even beating the returns on treasuries.
Sorry. Math doesn't lie.
60% win rate, which is already highly suspect, is 10% profit.
No tax benefits to losses will crush earnings in taxes. Then subtract commission.
Treasuries are headed to 4%....and you wouldn't have to do anything and pay 15% taxes next year.
I don't care what people claim, they can't beat the mathematics.
Hope you made a killing.
Hope everyone realizes with this strategy you only pay taxes on gains while not harvesting tax credits on losses.
50/50 is break even.
60% is 10% profit...then subtract short term gains
Mathematically at 60% you at3 barely beating the return of treasuries.
Not personal attacks. Clearing the air on the math.
Delete whatever you want.
50/50 Is break even.
I've yet to see you with 60-70% accuracy.
You aren't collecting crumbs. You are slowly wasting money.
Why are you showing everyone what already happened?
The buring question is what will happen next.
For reference show us the chart that showed the 25% drop in SPY a year ago.
JPM drop in trading revenues, but you making boatloads is impressive.
It is not too hard to understand if there isn't enough liquidity for JPM to make money, you as the liquidity certainly aren't.
Making money hand over fist as JPM reports 28% drop in profit huh?
You are good.
This isn't a market. Liquidity is horrible, and volume is a joke.
This is market makers robbing everyone.
If you can't sell stock for a profit during 9% inflation....who in their right mind thinks you can sell it for a profit as the FED actually seeks the highest rate of contraction in 40 years?
Imagine your 401ks are still charging 1-2% fees for this garbage.
Stock market value now the biggest enemy on the globe.
Yea...it'll go up cuz a rulers
Easy math...no ruler needed.
You can't start inflating again until you go through deflation.
In case you haven't read the news inflation hasn't even stopped yet
After inflation comes stagflation...then deflation.
Market is dead.
Capitalism isn't a critical juncture. Valuations are.
You can't lower the cost of something without lowering what it is worth. Painfully ovious everywhere now.
Walsstreet's dirty little secret. Inflation ending is horrible for assets.
Afterall inflation is the increase in cost/value of assets...is it not?
They can't stop inflation and the market go up. Let it go.
Sure they do.
Look at the volume. It's obvious...don't buy SPY's.
Real money shows up in real volume. You can buy as many SPY's as you want all day long...if you have the money.
Downgrades happening now, next comes downward revisions to earnings, then downward earnings...to very comfy 300's again.
IMO don't touch a SPY until the housing market resets.
Banks made record money on trading revenues.
Who's money do you think it was?
You are just being sold a product all day every day.
You never owned anything but a chance. You competition is chart readers everywhere.
Banks just making money off your mania.
So easy hedge funds are going insolvent.
You can't acomplish what you are trying to do. Machines suck liquidity out of the system before you chart even knows what happened.
Need a 60% success rate to make money. Then you pay 30% on short term gains.
Need 75% to beat historical market return.
Give it up.
Buy SPY or don't, but you aren't beating average annual ROI of 10% without a 75% success rate paying short term gains.
Turns out the only thing to do was sell and not buy for over a year now.
Options gamblers cutting of their nose to spite their face.
Those random pumps are hust people buying shares to sell you more calls. No one is buying anything. When the options close...shares dump.
Is TT still watching options flow like it matters?
Analyst Tom Lee
"Violent rally to 500".
It's too bad no one has cash handy.
Busy buying "dips" above 450.
Where does that gauge factor in cost and worth?
Dip buyers getting shreaded all year watching the fear gauge.
Price discovery like hasn't been seen in a decade...and you are watching a gas gauge?
How abow PE's under 20? Better gauge historically.
PE's single digits....time to go long. Still way yo much junk too expensive, making zero money relative to valuation.
Even after a giant plunge MSFT stil at 26. More down to go.
TINA was always a big fat liar.
There was otglher things to do...sell stock like madmen, like all the insiders and IPO's and SPAC's did.
Slight of hand baby. That's how Wallstreet really makes money.
There are no "boys" competing for your options. The "boys" just sell stock all day every day.
Where in there is it telling you what will happen in the fall?
Only publicly traded ibuyers could think housing could continue to go up 10-20% a year.
Everyone else knows that would just exponentially increase the homeless population.
Market and housing connected at the hip.
Reversion to the mean still much lower than here.
An unfortunate necessity to maintain capitalism.
They have to be able to start the inflation process all over again...and they aren't starting at a point that is the highest in half a century.
Charts will be useless for now.
It's that charts have failed to tell them where price is going accurately. No one is winning the options gamble...and yhe best time to SELL stock has come and gone.
Now is time to decide when to buy stock. Who's got cash handy?
300's will be here again, and the best time to sell and the worst time to buy would have come and gone.
Tom Lee's of the world were lying the whole time. They nrw what record IPO's and insider selling really meant.
Because the only thing that goes up in deflation is dollars.
And Powell is just getting started.
"Support" is a myth during deflation.
Deflation is by definition a loss in value...or worth.
Now one has to look around and wonder who will buy their TSLA letters soon, with 18B in revenue.
What Powell and banks did yo retirement accounts should be criminal.
Tech. will correct 20%, everyone will be down 35% with everything else off 50% or more.