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Yep, the presentation is a clear attempt at advertising results when considering the context of the communique within which it was announced. It provides a concise encapsulation of the recent B data for the perusal of new investors doing their own DD.
They have a good story to tell so I certainly don't mind the "rehash".
The guys squawking on the message board aren't the "massive sellers". If so, they could have hammered the stock yesterday on light volume, gunned for stops, and tanked the SP to new yearly lows. Far too much power is attributed to the usual cast of doomsday characters that appear here.
With the SP sitting on top of major support, they've been working extra hard this week to talk it into a breakdown. It was quite humorous that after all the squawking this morning, only 10K shares traded over the first few hours.
Given the light volume, it appears that they've lost help from the pesky seller that's been around for the last couple of weeks. Perhaps he/she/it is finished for the time being?
No kidding. All we're doing today is re-testing the bottom of a trading range and the entire panoply of doom is out attempting to talk it into a breakdown.
The Sales department told me Aruda's financial advisor has a high-maintenance girlfriend, requiring him to constantly hit the 'sell' button for commissions to fund perpetual bling.
Does any possible avenue exist under the 505b2 designation for the P ph2b trial to morph continuously into a phase 3? Or for that matter, does any other theoretical path exist for a such an occurrence? TIA
I don't share your opinion that BP engages in the stock price suppression of other companies. There is far, far too much risk involved for them to engage in that sort of nefarious behavior.
As to a discount on P, I think that depends on the number of potential suitors that either are involved or have been involved. Valuation on the deal should be very straightforward, using Otezla's market as the economic comparator. If there are/were multiple interested counterparties then CTIX should be able to land a very fair deal based on the ph2b results. I don't think they'll have to give up too much.
I don't expect too much from the CC either...perhaps a few new B and/or K morsels. But as to changes in business strategy, I've seen nothing over the past few months that would indicate to me a necessity to modify what has clearly been their effort for the past year; get to a deal first. With that as the primary goal, P is clearly the lead dog. Strategy for B is predicated on the quality of the ph2b results and whatever the outlook for subsequent partnership following data release.
It's interesting that what you deem flipping, flopping, twisting, and chaotic management, I find extremely compelling for a sizable investment in CTIX. The imbedded optionality in management's ability to define business strategy by navigating via a multitude of possible forward decision paths under conditions of constrained resources and future uncertainties has tremendous worth, both from a position of value maximization AND risk mitigation.
Those able to see past a current myopic market environment characterized by 1) a short-term time horizon, and 2) a desire for visibility in how future development will be funded (i.e. cash position), will be rewarded quite handsomely in the future.
This is the key to the ph2a K-OC trial (from Dr. B):
Agree. Unless they show up at the door holding a check with lots of zeroes for a purchase of the entire asset, I don't want them near Prurisol as a partner. Way too much internal conflict of interest with their shining star Otezla.
Well, as of 12/19 24 sites were open, but they planned on and probably budgeted for about 30 according to the 10/31 PR:
"The study is being conducted at approximately 30 sites throughout the United States."
I think one factor in Leo's decision to do this is the lack of volume in the stock recently. There were 3 very good news days in March and together they generated only about a million shares traded. I think he's being sensitive to the SP here.
I think understanding reward is very easy to comprehend; however properly identifying, assessing, quantifying, and ultimately managing risk is very difficult. But it's what the pros are good at (usually).
Perhaps it's purely an issue of risk and not one of reward. It's quite possible that Aruda, one of the large investors, has a significant percentage of his net worth tied up in CTIX shares. If under the guidance of a financial advisor, the FA without a doubt is constantly chirping about diversification of his assets. Even if not, wouldn't you think it prudent, as a risk mitigation strategy, to do the same?
One of the posters here has presented data of Aruda sales over the past several years, and the constancy of yearly sales leads me to believe that there is a diversification plan being effected here. Makes perfect sense to me.
A lot of volume entered the market in Jan/Feb when the SP neared $1. I was kinda hoping that Aruba's FA panicked a bit at the dollar mark and got the 2017 allocation over with early. It would be nice to have this particular seller exhausted for awhile.
Yep, that's the range I see as well, and the important one. We need to get above that and stick or it's business as usual ahead for the SP.
NABK, it might help to expand the XML code to determine what was actually added and/or modified. Click on the very small plus sign above the squiggly, sinusoidal line running through both the Before and After sides to see all of the code.
In the Before section there was only 1 primary outcome XML block defined by its starting tag <primary_outcome> and its ending tag </primary_outcome> with a duration of 11 weeks.
In the After section there are now 2 primary outcome blocks, one with a duration of 7 weeks (the grade 3 or 4 specification) and one with a duration of 11 weeks (the SAE's).
Hope that this computer geek stuff isn't more confusing....
Decent day today. We ended up essentially flat but held onto yesterday's gains and remain above $1.00. Volume was nothing to write home about, but no one sold aggressively into the news either.
I think the market has put the B-UP PoC study into the win column, and I suspect that barring any safety issues or a finding that 200 mg induces the defecation of golden bricks, we'll see the SP react to cohort 3 news in a manner similar to yesterday and today...no rockets but additional support.
Agree with you guys about BP wanting to wait for the OM results.
But if Leo has an inkling about positive OM results he'll want to wait as well. Being able to add the valuation from a future cash flow of another indication, de-risked to the point of a ph2 PoC developmental stage, is some good tangible ammo to include in the negotiation.
Gotcha. My expectation was for a bit higher volume that there were some folks that were waiting for the cohort 1 confirmation under a risk mitigation strategy. Those data were the very first anti-inflammatory results out, and I believe we only got results from 4 of the 6 patients.
I also thought there would be a bit more selling which obviously would increase the volume as well.
I've posted previously that my expectation was for a muted market response, as opposed to doubles, triples, and rocketships; given that positive cohort 1 information had already been assimilated into the market and we already knew about cohort 2 safety and low systemic absorption.
I thought there would be a neutral response, and so far it has been.
Don't get me wrong...a green day is a good day, but all we really did chart-wise was retest previously broken support at 1.00 on extremely anemic volume for a ph2 data release.
We'll need some follow through the next couple of days with some more volume and a high weekly close to begin to signal a turnaround for this ship. There's lots of work to be done yet.
Currently the market for CTIX is indifferent. There's no real conviction from either buyers or sellers. A sleepy market is not necessarily bad.
Agree about not anticipating any sort of short squeeze. My expectation for the cohort 2 release is for it to wind up being a fairly neutral event in terms of SP.
Bullish case is that there are some buyers of size that have waited, for risk mitigation purposes, to purchase after cohort 2 confirmation of cohort 1 results.
Bearish case is that someone may want to get aggressive and short heavily into the rally following the good news. With the expectation of positive results assimilated into the current market, I think it's set up for a typical "sell on news" event.
We shall see....
I have one too.
Perhaps the endoscopic data reviewer fell asleep from the monotonous boredom of having to look at miles and miles of healthy colon and simply failed to awaken prior to the Fed-Ex pick-up deadline.
As a 2015 investor I'm a little late to that particular party, but can certainly empathize with your frustration on K development.
CTIX is a business managing 3 major assets with not unlimited resources. A strategy of long-term value maximization has dictated that capital be allocated extremely efficiently and dedicated in proper proportion among the assets so as to achieve financial success.
Fortunately for me, as a biotech investor, patience has been indelibly seared into by inner being, so I've been willing to wait a bit on K as the other assets are developed in hopes that success is achieved for the entire company.
It's rather easy to discern what happened here. The CRO did not get their final data to CTIX when Leo expected and he's just following up on comments from the early week shareholder letter. The last sentence in the PR is its intent.
But the release provided an occasion for an update on some tasty oral K morsels as well as the to-be-presented Italian work. I appreciate the info and find it exciting.
And since you mentioned it, put me in the camp that finds the recent silence on P rather deafening and completely out of character for Leo. Bad results is your supposition, and that is certainly a possibility, but many of us are aware that tight lips are also symptomatic of the final stages of a deal consummation. That's a possibility as well.
It's not the FDA that's requiring CTIX to prove it, but as you say it's BP most certainly. Following the ph 1 trial, the FDA was directing CTIX towards a combo therapy ph 2a with doxorubicin. Development strategy changed when BP got involved.
The current ph 2a trial is all about proving MOA to BP.
The abstract appears to address the results of the mice work that the company initiated last spring to prep for and assist in the design of the current Ph 2a OC trial, all in an effort to elucidate K's MOA.
I think the good news of the imminent data release is already baked into the market. It's the expectation given Leo's comments, B's advancement to cohort 3, and the low systemic absorption results that have already been communicated.