Born again, born of God in July 2011
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Out DGAZ 3.27 with a modest profit after PM scared me into contemplating a huge loss. No more 3x ETFs for a while. Thanks be to God.
Good morning, traders. Hope everyone has a great day here. Only play for me going into next week is DGAZ. The last two times the weeklies on UGAZ looked like this, the following weeks resulted in a steep drop in pps, thereby reflecting a rise in DGAZ. Long DGAZ for a swing trade from $3.10 pps.
In DGAZ today at $3.10 pps. The pattern of the weekly candles over the past year and a half indicates to me that a reversal is likely here (on both UGAZ and DGAZ). Like DGAZ for a move to 4 dollars in the next 3 weeks (maximum wait, imho) -- maybe even by end of next week.
Sold all today at 1.38 and want to thank you for this board. One of my best trades in the past 4 years. Praise God!
Congratulations on another winning trade, ESVA! Very nicely done. I'm still in and looking for $1.58 (mid bollinger on the weeklies). Will not likely try to get out at exactly there but perhaps around $1.55 or so, God willing.
Good night!
SARA, thank God, had a really nice day for us. The weekly candlestick chart looks really good and indicates a possible trip to the 1.55-1.60 zone. Looking nice. Thanks for all of your comments on it. I almost dumped it early while it was consolidating. Very happy it held on till now. Have a great Family Day on Monday!
SARA volume was not too shabby by the end of the trading session. Let's see if we can get some follow through today. Would like to see a weekly close above 1.20 to set her up for a run next week. Still holding and nice to finally be green on the trade. I like how the daily candle shows a close above the upper bollinger band after a tightening of the bands over the prior sessions. Looks quite a bit better now.
Looks like this could be SARA's first day of a new uptrend. Good start and not a bad performance over lunch. Would like to see a close at about the high of the day on more volume (pretty light for my taste so far) though. Have a great day, all.
SARA does look bullish now. It has taken its time to form a nice base around the key $1 level and managed to hold that during the steep market drop in late January to early February. I really like how tight the bollinger bands are now on the one year chart with daily candles/bars. The lower bollinger band is even sweeping upward (at this moment anyway). It certainly looks like the pop we've been hoping for should come this month. Very nice and in at 1.04 here and waiting.
SARA appears to be putting in a nice new base, even with all of the general market chaos. Should get a good pop up some day soon, I hope.
That's smart! SARA is boring me right now. CEO, thanks! I can't PM but appreciate it!
$1.20 is a reasonable target and maybe a little resistance could be encountered there. I see strong resistance at 1.50 or so. If it moves to 1.20 on a mere technical pop, got to cash out around there too. If it moves there on good news (partnership/JV or good drilling news), then MAYBE I can try to wait for that 1.50 test. So hard to hold the winners, isn't it? Can always seem to justify holding on to a loser but those winners are like HOT taters in your palms sometimes. LOL!
Still in SARA too, after trying to get out at 1.06 and changing my mind upon a good for day sell order termination. Chart seems to be solidifying now. Unless bad news comes out, looks like the psychological $1 level is the temporary floor. Resistance is at about 1.50 but seriously doubt I have the guts to hold out a slow grind up to that. Been a long time since they had any solid good news so we could get a pop on a PR one morning. Right now, looks like it should trade higher near-term.
Well never got out of SARA -- order was for the day at at 1.06 so the order automatically cancelled. Let's see what happens manana. Good night, folks.
SARA: Should have taken the 1.10 this morning but trying to get out now. Bought in last week at 1.04 and thought more of a bounce was coming this week. Realize it could go tomorrow or next week but I like to use time stops in addition to value stops. I bought too soon. The way the DOW is dropping has me nervous about holding a penny stock overnight.
Good morning! Slow board but a good one. Hope your trades are profitable today. By the way, I like that the board is dull. It helps calm emotions down -- emotion will harm you again and again in this activity. Have a good one.
Good afternoon, E. Watching the paint dry with SARA but at least the volume is up. Looks like it will pop soon. I'm in at 1.04 and think the last two days candles indicate a pending pop.
I like SARA at 1.04 here. Volume coming in, a higher low today and looks like it will bounce off of $1 for now. Like it for a dime or two upwards. Saw it mentioned here a few days back and have been watching it trade each day. Today feels different. Could be setting up for a pop next week.
SHLD -- got her on my radar for a possible bounce off $26 in the coming weeks. Check the 3 year chart with weekly candles. Just broke support at $40 so $26 should be a matter of time and then there could be a very profitable bounce play. Hope everyone is well.
ABIO weeklies looking like breakout above upper bollinger band.
ABIO -- looks like it is gearing up for a pop soon. Weekly candles look like a big upswing could happen soon. Might see 2 next week.
RBY: I'm no expert but looks to me like the downtrend turned sideways into a channel between support at 70 and resistance at 80. Certainly "feels" like it is ready for a bounce back toward a dollar. Really oversold.
Bought RBY at .75 as it looks like it might bounce a little today.
Nice IVAN trade, guys. Hope I can find a 20% mover too.
NG -- was I wrong on that! Ouch.
I think NG has a reasonable chance of going higher from here. It's been consolidating in a triangle for a good while and it's trading above the 50 DMA. I somewhat like it here for a possible trade up to about 2.60 or so.
Congrats, OU! This is now a BIG BOY stock. Upgrades/coverage initiation and higher targets to follow next week imo. This should be at $5-7 now. Patience. Patience pays.
OU, if Sel works on RAS mutations then the FDA will have to fast track the drug. Have a good night. I'm going horizontal now.
OU, here's hoping for a good week. Any news in addition to the standard corporate line would be nice. Would love to hear that the biopsies confirm that Sel works against K-RAS or that Ph III is officially on-going.
Look at how the market maker is taking advantage of the lunch time lull here to get sellers at a paltry 1.50 today. Any and all bad news is priced in (financing/dilution and recent trial results -- if you consider it all bad though some would argue OS was stellar while PFS was subpar) and any catalyst can cause a run up. Looking forward to what our master and commander, Spiro, has to say on Tuesday. Let's hope he has a special delivery for anyone short...
OU, I am hoping this was a primer for an announcement on Tuesday that Phase Three is starting and that we have a partner. Hard to imagine that a big pharma is not interested in CYCC, now that it is a late stage company with oral cancer meds.
Nice to see news but I wanted them to announce when the trial was set to start (or better yet, that it had started). These guys are slow. Still long.
I'm surprised that we have not seen coverage initiation at a "buy" rating. When you review where we are at in our clinical development and financing, along with the market cap, clearly we are grossly undervalued when compared to our peers.
OU, I read that another trial was just registered and that we are presenting next week. What do you make of this?
OU, I think once the story catches on here, we will see CYCC move pretty fast and far. This is about to be a phase three oral cancer treatment play (with the FDA granted SPA). Talk about potential for a few upgrades and sensationalism. Could be one of those bios that rapidy moves from the low singles digits to the teens in the matter of a year. Remember VNDA a couple years back.....
OU, it might be this scotch talkin' but I fantasize all the time about how I would run this company if I could buy them out. The opportunity lost to really grow the market cap in 2010, with numerous catalysts, is perplexing. I feel a more aggressive management team could have had this trading at $5 minimum by now.
Example: the breast cancer findings fell into their lap. Sign a collaboration agreement immediately with Anderson and work with the fda on a trial.
Don't be quick to rule out an acquisition here. Merck acquired Aton in 2004 and Aton just happened to employ our Judy Chiao. Now we see Judy laying a contingency plan in place all of a sudden. Aton had only completed Phase 1 testing and was in phase 2 when acquired. CYCC has completed phase 2 and has a SPA for phase three. Plus we are talking about oral therapy here. I am not saying there will be a buyout but there have to be interested parties or negotiations at the very least.
All good points and in time stock prices will reflect true value -- just not at all times. When true value is not reflected, opportunity presents itself to either go long or short. When I take into consideration the market cap and compare it with other small bios, well, OU, all I see is an amazing opportunity.
The technicals concern me too. CYCC has been in a channel for about 6 months and it seems we are testing lower support these days. This needs to hold but, without a catalyst, I'm afraid TA traders might not have enough ammo to support current prices.
I remain bullish and believe your target of $3 is reasonable.
I wonder if they are in negotiations right now for a buyout and that's why Judy did this and why phase 3 didn't start yet (new co might want to wait and run it after a deal and with its own staff).
Agree on all points, OU. I don't know if I am reading too much into it but Spiro Rambotis stated in the 3Q report release that they had started (this was November 11) to recruit study sites for the trial.
"During the quarter we have made important progress with regard to advancing sapacitabine oral capsules into late stage development. We have reached agreement with the FDA regarding a Special Protocol Assessment (SPA) on the design of 'SEAMLESS', our planned, pivotal Phase 3 trial in acute myeloid leukemia (AML)," said Spiro Rombotis, President and Chief Executive Officer of Cyclacel. "We have started to recruit clinical study sites and are pleased to learn that the key features of the Phase 3 study design are acceptable to AML investigators."
I was perturbed by that as I thought, like you, that all of the preliminary work could have been in motion and investigators/sites should have already been recruited so that things could get started quickly upon SPA news.
The company certainly is in no rush to move. The stock has potential but when I look at the science and developments of 2010, had an agressive management team and stellar marketing think tank (take the last PR re NSCLC, instead of spinning it like they did they should have pitched it as a great success re overall survival) been in place, this stock could have been many points higher. Many points.....
I think it could be simply related to the fact that Cyclacel is a small company. Probably the fastest way to get the drugs to market is to sell the company.
Nevertheless, 1.50 is darn cheap. Let's see if they can pick up the pace a tad in 2011.
These were the identified milestones in the 3Q report. 2 of them have been met. Remaining are initiation of SEAMLESS and a data report on sapacitabine in NSCLC. Here we are on the last day of the year. Would be nice to end it with good news.
"Upcoming Milestones
Present Phase 2 one-year survival data of sapacitabine in patients with MDS at the annual meeting of the American Society of Hematology in December 2010;
Initiate the SEAMLESS Phase 3 study of sapacitabine in elderly patients with AML;
Report top line results from the APPRAISE NSCLC Phase 2b trial of seliciclib; and
Report interim Phase 2 data of sapacitabine in patients with NSCLC."