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Very likely. Either that or its the "manipulators" just kidding. I agree that is was expected and no reason to move the stock. Just like when ADXS PR's that the filed the EU submission. Nothing much will happen, SP related.
Anyone read or post this article from yesterday yet?
It really puts things into perspective as to how far off this board has really been.
So everyone remember their "best ever" AXAL data from a couple years ago right? Better results than Avastin, that received FDA approval and bright in $6.7B in 2016. With all the talk of AXAL being better and other companies needing ADXS to stay competitive. Well, Avastin has a FDA approved competitor now. Guess who? Amgen. Yup that's right. No need for them to buy our early stage product when they already have their own. Just goes to show how how slow and lost ADXS really is. Sad
Article:
The FDA just approved a version of Avastin, a blockbuster chemotherapy made by Genentech that brought in $6.7 billion in sales in 2016.
The newly approved drug, made by Amgen, will go by the marketed name Mvasi. It's a type of medication called a "biosimilar."
I am more currious to see how many Tutes sold. Interesting to see the next 13F in 2 months.
52 week low does not paint a true picture anymore.
ADXS has not traded in the 4s since Dec 2014. That means the entire YEARS of 2015, 2016, and 8.5 months of 2017, this thing traded higher.
No good for investors. And it was wondered why the shorts never covered their position. Now you know. No short squeeze to be seen in this.
Didnt even need all week to get to the 4's, just needed 1 day. Pretty impressive. Oh so many were talking of BO's just days ago, now this is back below 5 bucks. Yikes. If you can not see a big holder is dumping, then you really are blind. Like I said months ago, the writting was on the wall. That is why I bailed. This is toxic now. Good luck. I hope everyone has an exit strategy.
1M shares traded in the 1st hour.
(Another) New 52 week low.
Barely a $200M market cap.
Just 50 cents above where we got on the Nasdaq 4 years ago.
Ambulance chaser lawsuits to follow.
Revised price targets expected.
This could be back in the 4s by the end of the week.
Warrants at risk of becoming worthless by Oct 18.
New 52 week low :)
The 5's are here! Just like I predicted 1 month ago. And tax loss selling has not even started yet.
Atleast the volume is back in this thing. Should be the first 1M+ day in a long time.
Bam! There is the selloff I predicted. It was obvious. The writting was on the wall. Still not a buy down here though.
Absolutely. Someone is dumping and has been for a while. The last 3 Qtrs tutes have been slowly getting out of this. This business update was not impressive.
So the Board wants to franchise and DO was holding out for a full BO of the company? Isnt a BO what most here want? Dan did not want to piece up the company because it would hurt the final BO price, yet everyone here is glad he is gone and now the new direction of the company is to piece up the company. So why is this MB glad DO is gone? Sounds like he was looking out for investors in the long run. Now the company is only looking short term.
Oh now, you mean now that they released a business update this MB will no longer be able to justify the "silence" as a looming BO? Hahaha now I wonder what will be the next fantasy this board comes up with?
The reason for the silence is stated in the business outlook "conduct a review of the current Advaxis business portfolio and our future strategic direction". He has been settling in and learning as much as he can about ADXS.
Also "he will remain in this role for the foreseeable future". Looks like BO was never on the table.
To all who thought a BO was in the cards, better to read the lines rather than between them. Back to looking forward to 2018 I presume.
Agreed. This will be bough out in 2021 for a lot more than the market cap is currently at.
No. I sold my shares back in March in the mid 9's. This does not look like a BO any time soon so I will hold onto my money rather than put it back in ADXS. This is trading just like it always has over the years. Nothing looks any better or any different with the new interim CEO in charge. I will wait another Q or 2 before getting back in. Big data is just to far away to get in now.
1.) I have before but I will again. I do think a BO will occur eventually around 2020 (plus or minus 1 year). Obviously this will not be around forever and obviously the science works but more data is needed to get the attention of a BP for serious consideration of a BO. When P3 data starts rolling out this will increase accordingly based on the results. Our results so far have been good/great but in early trials and small population. Great results from just one P3 large population trial and this is a 2-4B company overnight. Then BP notices, and eventually a reasonable offer is made. This is still 2-4 years from happening in my opinion.
2.) Predicting a partner and predicting the upfront payment, furture payments, equity investment, or terms would just be blind guessing so no since in doing that.
3.) I think everyone can agree that bankruptcy is off the table.
My only real prediction (#1) is based off historical M&A activity and the status of our current trials. Everyone wants billions for a BO but you have to be close to that value before hand. We have released great data in the past (with no market cap change) and eventually we will release data that will darastically change the market view of ADXS. It will have to be something big and great. I dont see a scheduled conference that would qualify at this time but when they announce it, we will have a better timeline.
Actually a combination of the two. First, Q4 is as early as Oct 1 or as late as Dec 31. This was given before DO suddenly left. They could easily want more time to work on the paperwork because of this. Plus we know adxs (Dan) has a track record of missing deadlines. Secondly, I do not see this as a material event. The company stated "we are going to do this". So in Q4 when they file, it will already have been expected. The material event was them telling us they were going to file. To me this is no different then saying "we are going to start a P3 trial by YE. That is big news, PR'ing that they did start at YE is not as important cause they basically already said they were going to start the trial. The material news in this example are the trial results.
Is it great that they are filling, of course. Would it be material if they announce a partnership with it, of course. But since they did not state this it is wishful thinking in my opinion. It could very well happen, but it is an unknown at this point. What is known is that they are going to file EMA submission. I don't see that as material because they are going to do it and we have known that. Stating they were going to is the big news.
Agreed. That is exactly what is going on. Once they have stuff to talk about they will let us all know. Until then we will stay in this price range with no volume. Once things start getting released, then this should trend up on higher volume and shorts will begin to cover. That change could occur at anytime but I don't see it happening until Q1 2018.
Interesting perspective exel. You really think this will go from a near ATL to a ATH over the course of 4 months with no material events scheduled? What do you see as the chances of this really happening? Seems like if you really think this scenario is possible you would be buying long dates calls to make 50x your investment. Seems like a good way to risk a little and make a lot don't you?
Personally I see this closing out 2017 in the single digits but, I do agree with your $4B valuation based on your worst case timing scenario prediction of late 2019 (plus 6-12 months) imo. Based on past timing of ADXS events, I am adding on a 12 month cushion to the end date.
30+ by YE would be nice for all the longs and could make 2018 very exciting but that just seems a bit of a reach based on past SP performance of ADXS, especially now that we only have an interim CEO, with no idea what is going on there. Personally I hope your prediction is right, but we will have to keep waiting and watching.
Advaxis investors only had to wait 3 years for this info. The PR anouncing the collaberation was dated August 24, 2014.
Who is talking about the predictions being baseless? I plainly stated that they were wrong. My only predictions are many years down the line so we will have to see if I am right or wrong. We have already seen that Dan's was wrong, at the analysts were wrong. Hard to rely on them now when they are outdated.
IBB: setting new 52 week high today.
ADXS: Red, no volume, and $1 off 52 week low.
Who's fault is it now? Bio market recovering very well. DO is out. So who is at fault now for the low SP? These immaginary "manipulators"? Nope just no buyers intereested in this. Simple as that.
Dont forget that those 12 month estimates were first initiate over 12 months ago. Which means they estimated would be at $20+ by now. Not sub $7. clearly they were wrong with their estimates. Some of those estimates were first made almost 2 years ago. Just like Dan's prediction of $50 in 2 years, not all predictions come true. Just like the predictions of this board calling for an early BO. Its just not going to happen. As long as everyone keeps rolling their predictions another 12 months, after enough times, they will likely be correct. They might as well make predictions with the timeline of "eventually". At least then they would be more realistic.
Because greedy Dan did not want that golden parachute when the comp gets purchased? Hmmm if a 10 month BO were even close to reasonable, Dan would still be CEO continuously trying to grab more RSU's. This still has a very long way to go before a BO is even considered reasonable.
2020-2021 has always been the expected BO date. Just look at when P3 will be complete. 2020. Why sell before P3 data is finalized? As a director of the company it would be foolish to sell out just before you cross the finish line. If the science works as good as everyone thinks it does, then they should take it all the way to the end. By now it is pretty obvious that ADXS is a pro at staying under the "early BO candidate" radar. I don't think there is anything to worry about there.
Even great results will not get this out of the single digits. At least by now everyone is used to them. Just wait another 6-12 months and sell at 10 SP.
Exactly, no volume because there are no buyers, not because of the lack of shares. Someone please explain to me how there are no shares available. 40M outstanding - 20M Institutional ownership = 20M shares available. If MM does not own any of these 20M shares, who does? Retail. Not a chance. Dont forget about the 10MM shares short. That could add to the available count if shorted naked. There is more than enough shares out there for new investors to add or shorts to cover. The problem is NEITHER want to. NO reason to. 2017 will close in the single digits. This is still dead money and has been dead money All of 2017. Might as well not even look at it until mid 2018. Maybe be able to sell around 9-10 SP by that time. If not just wait another 6 months.
Saw some comments about Brodfin selling out, just checked and looks like they sold all their shares. Ouch! SP fighting to stay above 52 week lows. Volume is non-existent. Institutional ownership below 50% Short interest around 25% and an interim ceo. Yea things are looking great for ADXS. Haha so glad I sold out in March, against all the advice not to from other posters. Just keep looking forward, thats all you can do at this point. Look 12 months out and hope for the best. Good luck
All true. Could easily drop another buck over the next few weeks.
Why not just wait for the 5's? They should be here tomorrow. No reason to rush into this. You should have a few more months to enter at these prices. Nothing in the near term to change the SP.
The bleeding will stop when someone with deep pockets decides this is a good price to start/add to current position. The price can not stop if there is a big buyer on the other side. That apparently is not the case at $6.07. Maybe under $6? Maybe $5 or $5.50. All just depends on the potential buyer (not BO buyer). I do not see any manipulation going on personally. Just no buyers is all it boils down to. It is not considered to be a good buy at this point based on the overall market.
Adage could have made a Billion $ when Puma exploded to $200+ but they held those shares and rode the SP all the way back to 30. Is is recovering now but they still missed out on a huge payday.
Then why would they increase their short after best ever late stage cervical cancer P2 data was released? Being supprised by that data is one thing but to short it after that is released does not make since. Plus that was... going on 2 years ago I beleive.
That seems reasonable. If they ever report bad data, failed trial, or even another hold, then that could cause institutions to start dumping and that is where they would get the shares to cover with. Except I can not imagine that they would risk this amount of capital just to make a 50% return when there is the risk that it does work and this thing explodes or a suprise BO happens and they are forced to take a 300-500% loss. Doesnt seem like an educated investment decission to me. At least not on a professional level.
I agree. They have had over an entire year to start reducing their short holdings with probably a 100% return yet they have not begun to do so. It makes absolutely no since. They are still making no effort what so ever to even begin realizing their gains. Also something that I dont think people think about is why would they ever build up such a large short possition in a company with such a small float, knowing the only way they would ever be able to close out would be in the event of ADXS filing and going bankrupt. In the event that ADXS doesnt go bankrupt, then what is their plan B? Get burrned on their short? Yea right. They have a plan but we just dont know what it is at this point.
That is a GREAT question marc. I beleive if we ever find out the answer to that question then the strange trading over the past year will make a lot more since. It is a lot bigger than just someone trying to make some money shorting this. Unfortunately I have no idea what that reason is.
Actually it was the 2nd lowest volume day in 2 years.
But I am not concerned over the 7 sp. I listed many items in my previous post, not just the sp. my point was that this board (some at least) sees a BO coming soon but the market does not. Until the sp reacts in the way you mention (and like I said in my post, or institutions start adding, or shorts cover, I do not see a bo happening anytime soon. Once those events start to occur, I think this stays in the current range. But once those events do start to occur, I think this could run very very fast, just like it did in 2014-2015 from $3-$30.
Do you really think any retail holders are short this stock at this time? Of the 10MM shares shorted, how many do you really think are shorted by retail. My guess is a few hundred thousand at most. Those can be covered with ease in my opinion. The other 9.7MM will cause the SP to react. All this calling out of posters for being short and not covering is absolutely pointless. We are just off 52 week lows so why not cover now? The answer, because retail already has! The large bulk of the 10MM is short for a reason we may never know. It could be any number of reasons but it is absolutely not because they are trapped with no available shares to cover with. There were less shares available before the short count skyrocketed so why would they ever risk that position knowing they could never cover? The shorted shares was planned by someone or a group for a reason. They will NOT get burned period. Just like institutions will NOT take a loss on this, just like you have explained with your roi posts for the big guys.
Just put things into perspective.
Adxs is on track to have its lowest trading volume day in 2 years.
The overall market is up today, the ibb is up today, adxs is down today.
Shorts are not the least bit concerned about covering what so ever even at today's price of sub $7.
Institution are not in a hurry to buy shares even at today's price of sub $7.
Adxs is $1.16 over its 1 yr low and $1.41 over its 2 yr low.
Taking all this into account, this board can not stop talking about a near term BO.
I just don't get it! Nothing sounds, looks, or is acting like a BO is even in the cards. Otherwise the peeps with the deep pockets would be acting on this perception. The only ones expecting a BO are the retail on this board who are praying for a BO to get out of this disaster of an investment. These prediction are nothing more than wishful personal thinking.
Like I said in March, until this starts to quickly move up on volume, or shorts start to dramatically cover, or Q fillings show institutions buying in heavy again, this is a dead money investment. Nothing against the science, just on the purely investment side of it.